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Author Topic: Noted at ShoWest: Film could be gone in 5 to 8 years Martin McCaffery Film God Posts: 2481 From: Montgomery, AL Registered: Jun 99 posted 03-22-2010 01:41 PM                        quote: I doubt that'd happen...if we can't save up for digital, we certainly can't afford a high-priced lawyer! Don't worry, class action atty's work for a cut of the award (though all of the court fees and expert fees can get pricy) Regarding Mark's print math, art films right now usually do only 200 or fewer prints, are you suggesting they will be driven out by higher print costs?  |  IP: Logged Mitchell Dvoskin Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1869 From: West Milford, NJ, USA Registered: Jan 2001 posted 03-22-2010 02:19 PM                     quote: Ian Parfrey Prints will cease being made when there are no 35mm screens to show them Actually, there is a large infrastructure currently in place that makes the manufacturing and mass distribution of 35mm film viable. As the majority of screens convert to digital video, it will become more and more expensive to manufacture 35mm film, as the components that go into it will not be needed in sufficient quantity to support that infrastructure. Eventually, Kodak and other manufacturers will get out of the film business, either by selling the division, or by shutting it down, as they have done with other shrinking product lines. The result of above will be that it will become more and more expensive to release 35mm print, a cost that obviously will be passed on to those theatres still running them, until they become uncompetitive. I can't say when this will finally happen, but I believe it is now inevitable.  |  IP: Logged Scott Norwood Film God Posts: 8146 From: Boston, MA. USA (1774.21 miles northeast of Dallas) Registered: Jun 99 posted 03-22-2010 03:04 PM                        Thanks, NATO! I will put this on my calendar.  |  IP: Logged Victor Liorentas Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 800 From: london ontario canada Registered: May 2009 posted 03-22-2010 09:45 PM                     Will we see VPF in the future when the next wave of expensive upgrades come? Will theaters just have to absorb those future costs alone? If 3d starts to wane will we all be forced to continue watching movies on hot spotting silver screens? Will Sony give full support to all those SXRD theaters when the projectors start to lose shows because Sony made them? All this digital stuff costs a fortune to buy and maintain ,is it really worth the money when it could be spent on improving film presentation across the entire industry instead? The film stuff lasts, the digital stuff needs constant replacement in comparison. Has the whole world turned stupid?  |  IP: Logged Frank Angel Film God Posts: 5305 From: Brooklyn NY USA Registered: Dec 1999 posted 03-23-2010 02:45 AM                        Yes, Victor....yes it has.  |  IP: Logged Ian Parfrey Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1049 From: Imbil Australia 26 deg 27' 42.66" S 152 deg 42' 23.40" E Registered: Feb 2009 posted 03-23-2010 03:50 AM                     Frank. Got it in one. Trouble is the studios will get very bloody-minded about this and continue to strong arm the exhibitors into so-called "upgrading" to digital...unless there is a solid backlash and a resolute adherence to 35mm. That won't be a bad thing either as 35/70 has, and still is, proving to be an incredibly adaptive format- something that digital cannot claim to be without MAJOR (and expensive) hardware alterations.  |  IP: Logged John T. Hendrickson, Jr Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 889 From: Freehold, NJ, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 03-23-2010 08:39 AM                     Fithian thinks film will be gone in 5-8 Years? HE should do NATO and the independents a favor and be gone in less time than that.  |  IP: Logged Tim OBrien Film Handler Posts: 36 From: Vassar, MI /USA Registered: Jan 2010 posted 03-23-2010 10:31 AM                        quote: Bernie Anderson Jr NATO is nothing more to exhibitors than Congress is to the American People. Everything I see about them does not protect the independent exhibitor. I cancelled my membership in NATO when they became the National Association of Large Theatre Owners, shortly before they became the National Association of Large Digital Theatre Owners.  |  IP: Logged James Waite Film Handler Posts: 52 From: London ON Canada Registered: Nov 2007 posted 03-23-2010 09:58 PM                        From my own experience he's right at least in general. Look at what happened to 16mm. Back in the early 90's I was running the student run movie theatre here in London Canada. We used to run old and new films on 16mm but as video projection became more common the company that made the 16mm prints for the non-theatrical market started ordering fewer and fewer prints and eventually was ordering only certain kinds of films, usually kid's films. We had to either switch to 35mm or video to keep going. Luckily we were able to get the cash to go 35mm. There is even an equivalent to to the big chains going all digital in this. The Canadian military went to using all video which wiped out a huge portion of the 16mm market. The company (Criterion) loved it though, they still got to charge the same prices for people to get the rights to play a DVD and they didn't have to fork out the dough to make 16 mm prints.  |  IP: Logged Bill Enos Film God Posts: 2081 From: Richmond, Virginia, USA Registered: Apr 2000 posted 03-24-2010 03:04 PM                     Deleted because I get pissed off at the sound of the word congress and made a very political comment.  |  IP: Logged Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 03-26-2010 11:35 PM                        I had a long visit with my booker today about all of this. He thinks film will be gone in even less time than Fithian thinks. He said, "This is happening...probably sooner than later." I was expecting the opposite from him...he usually falls on the conservative side of all these developments.  |  IP: Logged Louis Bornwasser Film God Posts: 4441 From: prospect ky usa Registered: Mar 2005 posted 03-27-2010 06:25 AM                        Logically I feel we will be stuck somewhere in the middle for 10-20 years. Complicating the conversion is the update cost and planned obsolensence of video and the low cost, paid-for-eternity of film. Just ask Mark; he is keeping some 85 year old projectors alive. It would be hard to guess how many video machines it would take to reach 85 (and you can't sell the old ones.) Louis  |  IP: Logged Frank Angel Film God Posts: 5305 From: Brooklyn NY USA Registered: Dec 1999 posted 03-31-2010 10:47 AM                        People who make these predictions on how many years before film will be gone are just pulling these numbers out their arses. What calculations are they using? What data to they have that no one else does? They are merely guesses and about as reliable as you or me guessing -- our guesses would be just as valid, except we are usually smart enough not to pull anything out of our asses. In 1999 Lucas himself was saying with triumphant confidence that film would be gone in 5 year. COMPLETELY gone, as in no film projectors in projection booths at all. So much for silly, uneducated guesses. What does a producer like Lucas know except his narrow, self-centered view of a global industry? What does some booker know about the worldwide ratio of film based screens as opposed to digital based screens or how fast from month to month conversions are taking place and with a long term view of these global trends? It's much more complicated and issue when looked at over the entire planet rather than just domestically or even regionally. What's happening here in the USA is really a very small part of the picture and even if every screen in the US went digital, that would not mean film would be gone, not by a long shot. The next time anyone tells you how many years before film will be "gone," just ask them by what scientific method did they come to that number. And then snicker.  |  IP: Logged Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 03-31-2010 11:05 AM                        Well in the interest of making an interesting thread title, I used a bit more "sensational" wording than I might have; if you read my initial quote, it says Fithian estimated that the distributors could stop making 35mm prints in five to eight years. He didn't actually say film would be GONE -- although if they stop (or severely curtail) making film prints of the new movies we need to play, it might as well be.  |  IP: Logged Richard Hamilton Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1341 From: Evansville, Indiana Registered: Jan 2000 posted 03-31-2010 11:15 AM                     Ok Frank....Off topic here but which is it? quote: Frank Angel arses or quote: Frank Angel asses My ex mother in law always said arses, and I always gave her a WTF look.  |  IP: Logged

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