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This topic comprises 4 pages: 1 2 3 4
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Author
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Topic: Hurricane Frances
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William Hooper
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1879
From: Mobile, AL USA
Registered: Jun 99
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posted 09-03-2004 01:34 AM
quote:
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My source for accurate weather information is Weather Underground
They are all getting their data from NWS & re-packaging, altering, or re-interpreting it, from websites to the companies that re-package for industrial wx services for offshore oil companies, etc., ESPECIALLY to the guy on your TV who points at the weather.
The drawback with this re-packaging, re-organizing, & re-interpreting is that some need to just alter the material slightly to establish "brand differentiation", even though the NWS material is always the most accurate. As it gets further down the line, you get to things like the Yahoo link to the storm's predicted path which is STILL just a new graphic based on the NWS graphic produced for the data at 5am 9/2/2004. The NWS has revised those probablities about 5 times since, but Yahoo seemed to think that it's a static, locked prediction when they stumbled across it yesterday.
Watch the folks on TV or check whatever website you like, most if they're moderately intent on being more informational will say something like "we'll have another update at about 5 a.m" or whatever. Yes, that's the time of the next update from the NWS, which always notes when the next advisory will be issued.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/030245.shtml?
All you have to do is read the NWS info, note when the next advisory will be, then re-check at that time when the advisory comes across. The rest is just people on the weather channel standing outside in the rain looking like they don't have sense to go inside. Why are you out there?
For tornadoes, etc., it's the NWS storm center in KC, for tropical weather it's the hurricane center in Miami, etc. They network & use data not only from their own offices, but from independent centers. It's all diffused from NWS.
Yesterday at 5am, there was more confidence that it would still make landfall & then go northwards through the state, though it was already looking more likely to break west. Now it looks more likely to push further west & go across the state, then northwards in a phenomenon known locally as "There goes the Weekend." You still see the evacuation problems for FL. The problem with a hurricane going across the panhandle & folks moving "inland" is that they're going to be either sitting on the dirty side before it hits, or in it afterwards. It may still head north (remember that white area is still what's in the range of probabilities, & the line is only a mean), so the folks up that way won't be guaranteed safety. It's a crapshoot.
Also, when the TS gets back over the water, it can re-develop into a hurricane to cause more fun.
One of the worst things to deal with locally is always people being overwhelmed by fear or too lazy to think about complex problems, then refusing to think about the problems & saying "well, no matter where you are, if it's your time, you'll go", or "the weather is unpredictable, there's no point in getting too upset because there's nothing you can do", "I'm staying, if the Lord wants me to go there's nothing I can do", etc. Well, doofus, if you stand in front of a train, the Lord will decide it's time for you to go. People who decide to "ride it out" & survive always decide it indicates they're "chosen", & those that die have to have their friends & neighbors consoled for months with that sermon joke about the guy in the flood who keeps saying "The Lord will provide" until he dies & reaches St. Peter. Having to hear that thing over & over for months afterwards is some of the most horrible lingering damage after a hurricane.
[ 09-03-2004, 04:06 AM: Message edited by: William Hooper ]
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