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This topic comprises 3 pages: 1 2 3
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Topic: Aloha/ATA/Skywest! Who's next?
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Leo Enticknap
Film God
Posts: 7474
From: Loma Linda, CA
Registered: Jul 2000
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posted 04-12-2008 09:16 AM
quote: Paul Mayer
A lot of the older technology ones will get parked in the desert again. I think a lot of new ones will too this time around. Leasing companies will buy them up by the boatload - at bargain prices. They'll put 'em in the desert for a few years where they won't cost much to store or preserve. Then when times get good again, they'll bring 'em out, clean 'em up, and lease/sell/fly them again.
In the desert because of the dry and low humidity environment, thereby minimising corrosion damage to the airframes in long-term storage?
Also, what is this going to do to new aircraft orders? The 737 and A320 series must be Airbus and Boeing's bread and butter product lines, especially while they're shouldering the research, development and rollout costs of the new generation of smaller but long haul (787 and A350) and superjumbo (747-8 and A380) planes. If orders for the narrowbodies drop because good second-hand models are available from the desert, is this likely to become a serious problem for Airbus or Boeing? Or are airlines that can afford to going to buy newer planes anyway, on account of their fuel efficiency?
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Paul Mayer
Oh get out of it Melvin, before it pulls you under!
Posts: 3836
From: Albuquerque, NM
Registered: Feb 2000
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posted 04-12-2008 09:30 PM
quote: Leo Enticknap
In the desert because of the dry and low humidity environment, thereby minimising corrosion damage to the airframes in long-term storage?
Yes. The desert makes an almost perfect long-term storage environment for aircraft. Phoenix, Tucson, Victorville, Rosamond, Mojave, and Las Vegas all make or have made great places to park pickled planes.
quote: Leo Enticknap
Also, what is this going to do to new aircraft orders?
Having lots of good-quality used airframes available can have an impact on new aircraft sales. That's why both Brand A and Brand B have huge leasing operations as well as sales!
New aircraft will always have the advantage of better fuel burns and possibly better options on things like IFE (In-Flight Entertainment). Used aircraft will be much easier on the corporate wallet for the up-front costs of acquisition and prep for return to service (though up-front costs for new aircraft can be pretty low - both A and B will bend over backwards to work with a client airline - a lot).
[Edit] Brand B is not doing themselves any favor by continuing to delay the 787. They just announced another 6-8 month slip for the first flight (that makes three). Customers with early line positions are lining up for compensation payments. Looks like the decision to develop this many new technologies on one aircraft while simultaneously promising the shortest lead time ever was a bit optimistic.
This next few years will be most "interesting" (in the Chinese proverb sense) for the air transport industry. One of the reasons I left Allegiant is that at my age I need to work in an industry that will be relatively stable and offer at least a prospect of good salaries and career paths. The skills and experience I can offer at this point as either a pilot or maintenance planner or ground/simulator/classroom instructor or technician just never paid well enough for me to stay in the game, even though the game itself has been a lot of fun.
[ 04-13-2008, 11:29 AM: Message edited by: Paul Mayer ]
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Leo Enticknap
Film God
Posts: 7474
From: Loma Linda, CA
Registered: Jul 2000
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posted 04-13-2008 03:47 PM
Thanks Paul.
quote: Paul Mayer
Brand B is not doing themselves any favor by continuing to delay the 787. They just announced another 6-8 month slip for the first flight (that makes three). Customers with early line positions are lining up for compensation payments. Looks like the decision to develop this many new technologies on one aircraft while simultaneously promising the shortest lead time ever was a bit optimistic.
From what I understand, exactly the same thing happened with the A380: and even now it's in revenue-earning service, some significant bugs are still being discovered and ironed out. When all's said and done the project was about two years late and A's shareholders ended up taking quite a short-term hit on it, one which they'll only claw back gradually, over many years, as more aircraft are delivered and make the transition from a R & D exercise into a revenue-earning, production line workhorse. Given that the 787 is an equally radically new generation of airliner technology, I guess the same thing will end up happening, and that like A, B have decided that it's better to delay the launch and get it right than launch on schedule and then come unstuck after the event.
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Will Kutler
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1506
From: Tucson, AZ, USA
Registered: Feb 2001
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posted 04-15-2008 10:43 PM
I have been a licensed mechanic since the late 1980's, and eventually went into the USAF due to a bad job economy. My experience includes working on everything from small aircraft to the biggies such as 747's and C-5 Galaxies, and even historic aircraft.
I earned my license thru a highly regarded FAA part 147 school, and took my exams when I was just leaglly old enough to do so.
Anyhow, all this crap regarding poor maintenance and these FAA Inspector whistle-blowers is nothing new. This has been going on for decades. I'll never forget that on the first day of class one of the first things that our Professor warned us about was about being pressured into performing unairworthy maintenance and falsifying records.
Did he ever hit the nail on the head! I could go on for an hour telling about the things I saw and the pressures that I was put under!! I am very greatful for the ethics that my parents and teachers instilled into me, and that I refused to play with peoples lives, and have the ability to withistand the pressures to perform shoddy maintenance.
Let me expalin a few things regarding Airframe and Powerplant Mechanics.
There are 3 ways to earn the license:
1) Thru documented work experience under licensed mechanics following FAA regs.
2) By attending a FAA Part 147 School.
3) Thru military experience.
When one attends a Part 147 school, one learns the detailed ins and outs of what makes an airplane work.
On the other hand, Military experience is no where near in depth...the average military mechanic will have maybe 25% of the knowledge as a person graduating from a Part 147 school. The military is task-orientated based. The task books are written on a jr high school level, and no in-depth understanding is required. Yet the FAA permits military mechanics to test for their examinations. And there are many, many ex-military mechanics in industry!
In the military (USAF), great (prime) emphasis/importance is placed on aircraft on-time take-off/mission reliability statistics. And these numbers can make or break promotions. Furthermore, military mechanics are required to follow the job-task books to the T...and not doing so will result in Courts Martial. However, often times military mechanics are pressured to perform unairworthy maintenance just to get the plane off on time. Not getting that plane off on time (regardless why) will result in a poor annual performance evaluation, which can cost you a promotion. So, it is really a Catch-22 situation. been there...done that several times!
An military mechanics tend to bring this work ethic into the private sector.
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