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This topic comprises 2 pages: 1 2
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Author
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Topic: Smoke In The Screening Room
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Mike Blakesley
Film God
Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99
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posted 11-19-2018 04:00 PM
A lot of the "why doesn't somebody DO something?" lies in the cost of doing things. Lots of people will contribute to a cause, but when something like this comes along there's not much you can do rapidly because the cost is so astronomical.
Even if every man, woman and child in the rest of the country gave a $10 bill to the California victims right now, that still would only amount to about $3 billion, not nearly enough to rebuild what was/is being lost in just this one disaster. And there are plenty of other disasters to go around, not just this one.
Plus, those fire victims don't necessarily need money -- they need helpers, and they need a place to stay. Most people can't just drop everything and go offer to lend a hand, because most people have jobs or other obligations, or they're just too far away. That's why the responsibility for helping disaster victims falls mostly on the government. And there again... limited money, limited people, limited resources. Just because we are a "rich country" doesn't mean we have unlimited everything.
I get a little tired of the new "thing" of criticizing people who offer their thoughts and prayers in situations like this. Maybe that's all they can afford, or have the means, to offer.
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Marcel Birgelen
Film God
Posts: 3357
From: Maastricht, Limburg, Netherlands
Registered: Feb 2012
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posted 11-20-2018 07:49 AM
quote: Leo Enticknap
Things could get to the point at which either there has to be a taxpayer-funded and (at least partially) state run program for fire insurance, or the higher risk rural areas are going to depopulate.
Like Bobby already put it. Insurance companies are almost always for profit organizations. Although they often cover each other in bigger funds that cross the industry, in the end, they need to make a profit. So, if the amount of fire related disasters increases and they still want to be able to cover those cases, their rates have to go up.
There is no simple solution though. I think what happened in the Netherlands, after the flooding events I’ve mentioned, is probably a more reasonable solution, but it’s never an one-fits-all solution.
First off all, they started to encourage people moving away from some very flood-prone regions or simply start to live with the potential consequences. They also stopped new developments in those regions.
Then they started to improve the infrastructure, like implementing huge overflow areas and increasing the strength of protection in vulnerable high-density areas like potentially affected cities. It was a plan that already took multiple decades, is still not entirely finished and billions to implement, but in the meantime it employs a lot of people and you get a lot of new technology and insights in return. And since we very much see that the climate is changing all around us, which has a big impact on not just sea levels but also the water flow of rivers, the nice thing is, it’s a never ending process, so there’s always lot of work to be done. It’s like restoring that big medieval cathedral. Once you finished restoring the back, you can start all over again at the front.
I guess the approach in California could be potentially the same. In case of Paradise, CA, it’s probably not smart to just rebuild the town like it was. You need to learn from what went wrong here, how you can avoid it in the future and if it is unavoidable, then maybe it simply isn’t a good idea to reconstruct it on the same spot.
Lessons learned here can also be used to avoid it happening elsewhere and thus also reducing potential insurance exposure. In the end, that’s the only way to keep the system healthy, without having government foot the bill.
Potential technical solutions could be developed and implemented, at least it should be an avenue worth exploring. This is where government could have its role as a “high risk, but potential high returns” investor. For the Netherlands, it worked pretty well during the years. They’re exporting their water control knowledge and affiliated industries like giant-scale dredging solutions all over the world. California, with all of its big tech, could maybe become the prime exporter of wild- and forest fire control technology in the world...
quote: Bobby Henderson
That gets back to the question, "how can a rich country and a rich state like California let this happen?" I assume that is a rhetorical question. After all isn't it obvious?
Well, it is obviously a somewhat rhetorical question. Let me say that I know a bunch of people over in the U.S., I work closely with many of them, I’ve been there countless of times, have worked there for a couple of years in several intervals. I think I know a bit about U.S. culture, which in general is more competitive than European culture.
But, from the outside, it looks pretty bad to be honest. Not the fact that those fires happened, but the simple fact that such a disaster is now also being used as a political football, instead of focusing on the people that are most in need.
Real patriotism shows itself when it’s needed the most and it traverses political and racial differences. I suspect it’s still in there, somewhere, but the last decade and a half, it almost seems like it was replaced by a foul mixture of greed, egoism, “I-Don't-Care-ism” and despair, as the middle class was almost slowly entirely eradicated. It’s not something that’s exclusive to the U.S., it’s merely fulfilling its function as a forerunner, it’s almost like a pandemic steadily taking over the world.
quote:
A lot of the "w]3hy doesn't somebody DO something?" lies in the cost of doing things. Lots of people will contribute to a cause, but when something like this comes along there's not much you can do rapidly because the cost is so astronomical.
I think no matter what political opinion you do have (unless it’s to the utter extreme of whatever side…), but I think this is where Government should start to step in big. In case of disasters, it should be the party with the backbone to help those who are hit hard and can’t help themselves back up. Yes, it will cost us all some money, but everybody could find him/herself in a similar situation someday. It has nothing to do with socialism or communism, it’s just what makes us human.
quote: Mike Blakesley
Even if every man, woman and child in the rest of the country gave a $10 bill to the California victims right now, that still would only amount to about $3 billion, not nearly enough to rebuild what was/is being lost in just this one disaster. And there are plenty of other disasters to go around, not just this one.
There’s a lot that can be done, with $3 billion, especially if it would be immediately available, the spending would be properly supervised and people would largely refrain from abusing the situation. It will not be sufficient to rebuild everything that’s lost, but it should be sufficient to bring some immediate relief.
quote: Mike Blakesley
Plus, those fire victims don't necessarily need money -- they need helpers, and they need a place to stay. Most people can't just drop everything and go offer to lend a hand, because most people have jobs or other obligations, or they're just too far away. That's why the responsibility for helping disaster victims falls mostly on the government. And there again... limited money, limited people, limited resources. Just because we are a "rich country" doesn't mean we have unlimited everything.
In the end, it all boils down to money, don’t you think? Money is the thing that can most easily be converted into helping hands, much more than “thoughts and prayers”. Depending on how you look at it, it may be unfortunate, but that’s how it works in a capitalist system. You cannot simply leave your business behind and help to rebuild some essential infrastructure in some hard hit region out of pure generosity, but if somebody would pay you a fair price for this, and you happen to be in construction, why not?
I’ve worked for a big global network operator for a time. I remember that every time a disaster like a big storm hit a region, we were working overtime trying to get communications back up in the region. It’s not like we really had the time to do it, but heck, those people often didn’t have any means of communications, often even no emergency services. So you simply worked day and night to make sure those people could at least contact emergency services, or tell their relatives they were fine. If you got paid for the massive amount of hours you logged, was an issue for later...
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 11-20-2018 01:28 PM
quote: Leo Enticknap
My guess as to why some people have a short fuse with "thoughts and prayers" is due to the suspicion that the phrase is being used out of political correctness rather than sincerity, or as a way to avoid answering uncomfortable questions related to the incident that gave rise to them.
The best example I've seen was personified by Susan Orfanos, the mother of Telemachus Orfanos. He survived the Oct 2017 mass shooting in Las Vegas yet was one of 12 people murdered earlier this month at the Borderline night club in Thousand Oaks. On camera she was furious and had every right to be considering the circumstances. To her the thoughts and prayers thing translated to, "we feel bad for you but are not going to do anything about the problem."
quote: Marcel Birgelen
Like Bobby already put it. Insurance companies are almost always for profit organizations. Although they often cover each other in bigger funds that cross the industry, in the end, they need to make a profit. So, if the amount of fire related disasters increases and they still want to be able to cover those cases, their rates have to go up.
Unfortunately the rates of premiums for things like flood insurance rise well above the what most people can afford. So you end up with a lot of people with insufficient coverage or no coverage at all.
The aftermath of Hurricane Harvey is still playing out in the Greater Houston area. The homes of tens of thousands of people were completely destroyed in the floods and many thousands of other homes suffered serious damage. Some spots near Houston got upwards of 60" of torrential rain. Between 300,000 and 500,000 vehicles were destroyed by Harvey's floods in the Houston area. Around 20% of those vehicles were uninsured. Some of the homes destroyed in the Houston area were in housing developments that were allowed to be built despite flooding risks. Developers make their money. Municipalities get their boost of property tax revenue (and property tax runs high in Texas since there is no state income tax). At least some of the home buyers were unaware of flooding risks. In the end a major Hurricane has left tens of thousands of people in one part of the country with a struggle that may take many years to overcome. Meanwhile for the rest of America that disaster has long since disappeared from the rear view mirror.
Meteorologists and other scientists warn a great deal of prime coastal real estate in Florida is prone to flooding from major hurricanes or long term climate change. Yet the mantra is build baby build. They're only living for the moment down there, future risks be damned.
quote: Marcel Birgelen
Real patriotism shows itself when it’s needed the most and it traverses political and racial differences. I suspect it’s still in there, somewhere, but the last decade and a half, it almost seems like it was replaced by a foul mixture of greed, egoism, “I-Don't-Care-ism” and despair, as the middle class was almost slowly entirely eradicated. It’s not something that’s exclusive to the U.S., it’s merely fulfilling its function as a forerunner, it’s almost like a pandemic steadily taking over the world.
There are still some people who are willing to show up and do physical work to help people in need. But it seems like those numbers are dropping. I've participated in a local AMBUCS charitable civic club chapter for over 20 years. Our club had nearly 100 members in the 1990's; now we have about 30. Membership in civic clubs is in decline nation wide. The median age of these clubs is skewing older and older. We're not attracting younger adults very much. One of the things our club does is build wheel chair access ramps at homes of people with disabilities. Many of these people can't get out of their own houses or apartments and down the steps without someone helping them, literally carrying them in some cases. Some have been stuck indoors for years. It's likely some of the retired people living in Paradise, CA were in that predicament when the fire came raging to town. It's rewarding to see the kind of difference something as simple as a ramp can make in a person's life.
quote: Marcel Birgelen
I think no matter what political opinion you do have (unless it’s to the utter extreme of whatever side…), but I think this is where Government should start to step in big. In case of disasters, it should be the party with the backbone to help those who are hit hard and can’t help themselves back up. Yes, it will cost us all some money, but everybody could find him/herself in a similar situation someday. It has nothing to do with socialism or communism, it’s just what makes us human.
The problem is there is a number of systemic issues that have been allowed to go un-checked, all in the vain of making lots of money. Housing and real estate is one of those things. Much of California and many other high population zones around the United States were already in the midst of an affordable housing crisis before these forest fires hit.
Far too much of new housing supply is geared to high income customers. I live in what's considered a pretty low cost of living small city and the problem is the same even here. Nobody is building new houses for people in middle and lower income classes. It's all 4000+ square foot McMansions. I don't know how they intend to sell that property. There's not that many rich people living around here. Even apartments cost a lot to rent unless you want to live in "the 'hood." So now the local market is really slow and the city is shedding residents. The negative effect was amplified when Fort Sill recently chose to build hundreds of new housing units on Post. But that was direct reaction to price gouging and other unethical treatment of military families for housing off-post. Local developers cried foul about all the new housing units on Post, but the Army pretty said "tough shit" in response. And rightfully so.
Hell, the cost of day care for one child here in my town is at least several hundred dollars a month. It's scary to think what day care costs out in California. Let's not forget about our nation's insane health care costs. A bunch of the survivors of the fires in California were put in the hospital. So not only are a bunch of these people homeless, they're also going to be buried under a mountain of medical bills.
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