This is topic Spider-Man vs. Star Wars Episode II in forum Ground Level at Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE.


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Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 05-06-2002, 01:36 PM:
 
Time for another Film-Tech poll!

In the past, Film-techers have correctly predicted several blockbuster matchups (Shrek vs. Atlantis; 102 Dalmatians vs. The Grinch; and a couple of others I can't remember) and with Spidey's big opening weekend, the question must be asked:

Can STAR WARS 2 top this opening?

And which will be the bigger grosser overall?

Let the predictions begin!

I predict that Spidey will keep the opening weekend record, but Episode II will stand taller at the end of the game.
 


Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 05-06-2002, 01:42 PM:
 
Star Wars 2 will not break the record, but will do more business overall. After the dissapointment that was felt, you know, the bad aftertaste, of EP ONE, people will not flock like they did last time. I think most exhibitors with the great reviews and good performances of Spideyman, will not rush to dump those screens in favor of a movie that may or may not do as well. Especially with the kind of terms that georgy wants.

MOst, myself included, will wait on EP 2.

Dave
 


Posted by Joe Beres (Member # 678) on 05-06-2002, 02:24 PM:
 
If Episode II had a three-day opening weekend, I think that Spidey would win out. However, Star Wars has a four-day opening weekend, so I think it will make more in the four days than Spiderman did in three, but it isn't a fair comparison.

I am not too certain about the following, but I think that Spidey will gross a bit more in the end, but it will be close. Those are my predictions.

 


Posted by Brad Miller (Member # 2) on 05-06-2002, 03:04 PM:
 
I think Spiderman will keep the opening weekend record. I haven't heard a peep from the *loyal* Star Wars fanatics.

I'm going to wait and see how much screen time Jar Jar has in Episode II before making my prediction on which movie will do more money in the end. If he has less than 10 minutes worth of screen time, Episode II will definitely make more overall. More than 10 minutes? Hmmmmm, it depends on how much he keeps his mouth shut and how many things he has to trip over.
 


Posted by Nathan Guerriero (Member # 1214) on 05-06-2002, 04:30 PM:
 

Having now seen both films, I would guess that Spiderman will outgross Episode II. Jar Jar does indeed have less than ten minutes of screen time, but nevertheless I estimate the domestic summer gross for Episode II at 250 million. I put Spiderman somewhere closer to 275 million.
 
Posted by Charles Everett (Member # 889) on 05-06-2002, 06:42 PM:
 
Spider-Man will keep its opening record AND do better overall. Why?

  • Many theaters that had midnight shows for Star Wars Episode 1 will not have midnight shows for Episode 2. That's due to security measures put into place after 9/11.

  • Loews doesn't play Fox product in Manhattan. No Star Wars at the Loews Lincoln Square or Loews Kips Bay!

    Joe B: Episode 2 has a 4-day opening weekend -- in Canada.
     


    Posted by Joe Beres (Member # 678) on 05-06-2002, 07:01 PM:
     
    I believe it opens on Thursday, May 16 in the US, same as in Canada. Am I wrong?


     


    Posted by Charles Everett (Member # 889) on 05-06-2002, 07:09 PM:
     
    Joe B: Canada has a Monday holiday in Victoria Day (5/20). A Thursday opening is not a four-day weekend opening unless that Thursday is Xmas Day.


     


    Posted by Joe Beres (Member # 678) on 05-06-2002, 07:16 PM:
     
    So does that mean that the Thursday grosses will not be included in the Weekend totals? I had no idea. If I am understanding you correctly, then thanks for clearing that up.

     
    Posted by Darryl Spicer (Member # 711) on 05-06-2002, 09:09 PM:
     
    The way it works is Like Charlse said. If Thursday was the Forth of July then the groses would cover Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. But, since the opening day is not a holiday, The grosses follow a three day Friday Saturday and Sunday Weekend Gross total withe the Thursday included in the First weeks take.
     
    Posted by Aaron Sisemore (Member # 145) on 05-06-2002, 09:58 PM:
     
    Hopefully this doesn't constitute a 'spoiler':


    Mr. Binks has less than 10 minutes total screen time and virtually nothing that comes from his computer-generated mouth this time around is for 'comic' purposes.

    It is NOT Jar-Jar that provides the 'comic relief' in Ep. II.

    -Aaron


     


    Posted by David Rowley (Member # 1202) on 05-07-2002, 02:04 AM:
     
    My prediction is that Star Wars edges out Spiderman for the larger gross, but that Star Wars does not break the one day record, fastest $100 million record, or best opening weekend record.

    My reasoning:

    I was a little disappointed with Spiderman. Some great action, a story that was true to the comic, but I found that there was just too much focus on the romance for my taste. I love Sam Raimi's style, but I'm not sure I understand why he choose to emphasis that aspect as much as he did. He's an comic book action hero...and for that reason, I don't think Spiderman will get as much return business. I know I will see it one more time (I need to take the wife with me this time), but that will most likely be it until it comes out on DVD. I enjoyed it, but not enough to fork out $13.50 again, and I suspect that many other fans felt this way too.

    If the online reviews I've read about AOTC is correct, then Star Wars fans are going to really enjoy this one. That means a lot of return business, but I think that many will hold off until word gets around that it isn't just a 2 and a half hour kid's movie. It will have a slower opening week, but stronger life.

    Or I could be completely wrong!
     


    Posted by Brad Miller (Member # 2) on 05-07-2002, 02:46 AM:
     
    Aaron, are you implying that there is a new creature that will provide the "comedy" that will ruin Episode II the way the Ewoks and Jar Jar did to the last two?

    (My opinion here)
     


    Posted by David Favel (Member # 1125) on 05-07-2002, 04:34 AM:
     
    Last week Ep 2 tickets went on sale.

    Hoyts mase a big deal how tickets were on sale 9.00am Thursday.

    One sad, lonely, pathetic loser spent the night camped out in front of the doors only to be beaten to buy the first tickets by someone who came in off the street and the opposite door was opened first.

    I will be running Spiderman when it opens in New Zealand.

    I can wait a while for Star Wars.
     


    Posted by Aaron Sisemore (Member # 145) on 05-07-2002, 09:33 AM:
     
    Brad:

    No 'new' creature, just an 'old droid'...

    It's C3PO that provides the bulk of the 'laughs' in this one.

    -Aaron

     


    Posted by Darryl Spicer (Member # 711) on 05-07-2002, 09:46 AM:
     
    I can handle C3P0. At least he is a true character to the story. I am not a Star Wars nerd so to speak (I don't have all the figures and toys on shelves or anything). I do like the movies, always have, always will. It's a fun way to enjoy a movie without being bombarded with profanity and blood spurting everywhere. Here is one interesting question. Do any of thes people ever go to the bathroom.
     
    Posted by Michael Gonzalez (Member # 593) on 05-07-2002, 01:24 PM:
     
    I hate to say it but I think that when it is all said and done, EP2 will do better than Spiderman but it wont break the opening record. Because of EP1, there will be too many people who are going to wait for other people to see it first to find out if it is good before they go see it. I know that if I wasn't running a movie theater and was able to watch it for free, I'd wait a couple of weeks. However, I am probably going to watch it after the last customers leave from the 12:01 showing (It's not like I am going to have to get up in the morning or anything).
    I am glad that Spiderman is doing well. I thought it was OK but I don't plan on seeing it again untill the DVD comes out this Christmas. I am glad that Spiderman is doing really well mainly because it gives Sam Rami a lot of clout as a director because I have been waiting to see a big budget (80 million dollars or so) EVIL DEAD 4. BTW they start filming the Spiderman Sequel this January.
     
    Posted by Charles Everett (Member # 889) on 05-10-2002, 06:17 PM:
     
    Another good omen for my prediction: The Spider-Man soundtrack album enters the US charts at No. 4. The soundtrack for Star Wars Episode 2 falls from No. 6 (where it debuted last week) to No. 15.

    What's more telling is that the Episode 2 soundtrack sold fewer copies last week than The Scorpion King or O Brother, Where Art Thou?

    I smell another expensive embarrassment in the making.
     


    Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 05-11-2002, 12:10 PM:
     
    The Star Wars II album is a score album (orchestral music, no pop tunes). The Spider-Man album is a pop album with many current hot bands included. That's why it's the better seller.
     
    Posted by Charles Everett (Member # 889) on 05-17-2002, 05:02 PM:
     
    A comparison of first-day performance . . .

    Spiderman (5/3):
    $39,406,872 gross/3,615 theaters/$10,901 per-theater average

    Star Wars Episode 2 (5/16):
    $30,141,417 gross/3,161 theaters/$9,535 per-theater average

    The winner and still champion: Spider-Man!

    Also, the Spider-Man soundtrack is No. 6 on the national album sales chart -- and the Star Wars Episode 2 soundtrack is No. 46.
     


    Posted by Adam Wilbert (Member # 1184) on 05-17-2002, 05:42 PM:
     
    Charles, you have to take into account that spiderman (5-3) was a friday and SW (5-16) was a thursday. Anyway you cut it, those are damn impressive thursday numbers. I didn't expect it to be nearly that close.

    -Adam
     


    Posted by Charles Everett (Member # 889) on 05-17-2002, 05:53 PM:
     
    At least my mind isn't warped by all the ENDLESS ENDLESS HYPE!

    Most daily papers in New Jersey didn't do any stories about the midnight shows. That's because a much more significant story was coming in . . . Bush knew about 9/11 in advance and did nothing!


     


    Posted by John T. Hendrickson, Jr (Member # 849) on 05-17-2002, 06:59 PM:
     
    Just an additional thought here. I'm playing devil's advocate, so to speak.

    Is it not true that, because of the running times, plexes that booked multiple prints could get in additional shows of Spider-Man, hence more seats available for the first day?

    Also, the Thursday gross for Star Wars includes all those midnight shows, so wouldn't that tend to inflate the Thursday numbers somewhat?

    I have always believed that what is most important is the final numbers. We all get caught up in the opening weekend hype, comparisons, and averages, and most of the money goes to the distribs anyway.

    The bottom line is really what the film does for you at your location.
     


    Posted by Greg Anderson (Member # 235) on 05-17-2002, 08:00 PM:
     
    Every time the Utah Jazz win a game, it makes me a great person because I live here and "we won." Every time they lose, it doesn't mean anything negative about me, of course.

    So... Star Wars or Spider-man can win this race and... if doesn't matter who I'm rooting for. I'm still worth just as much or as little as I was before anyone paid to see either of those movies.
     


    Posted by Bill Hallsworth (Member # 1240) on 05-17-2002, 11:38 PM:
     
    I think that Spidey will win opening weekend, but lose in the long run. Only time will tell.

    Bill
     


    Posted by Charles Everett (Member # 889) on 05-21-2002, 06:58 AM:
     
    Let's compare opening weekends . . .

    Spider-Man (5/3-5):
    $114,844,116 from 3,615 theaters ($31,769 per-theater average)

    Star Wars Episode 2 (5/17-19):
    $80,027,814 from 3,161 theaters ($25,317 per-theater average)

    Now let's compare the top New York engagement for opening weekend . . .

    Spider-Man: $314,534 on 6 screens of the Loews E-Walk

    Star Wars Episode 2: $259,361 on 6 screens of the AMC Empire
    (5 film prints plus 1 DLP)

    The winner and still champion: Spider-Man!


     


    Posted by Evans A Criswell (Member # 381) on 05-21-2002, 10:06 AM:
     
    It's funny, very similar ratios applied to the number of hits my hsvmovies.com web site got on the Spider-Man opening and the Star Wars II opening. (198/133).

    114844116 (SM weekend) / 80027814 (SW weekend) = 1.435 ratio.

    198 hits (SM Friday) / 133 hits (SW Friday) = 1.489 ratio.

    Very close!

    It proves that I can judge the popularity of a big movie by how many hits I get on my site on Friday of opening weekend!

    ------------------
    Evans A Criswell
    Huntsville-Decatur Movie Theatre Information Site
     


    Posted by Aldo Baez (Member # 790) on 05-22-2002, 04:35 AM:
     
    I don't even know how you can compare the openings.

    You think if Spiderman opened the 16th and Star wars opened the 3rd Spiderman would have had the same numbers?
     


    Posted by Scott Madsen (Member # 167) on 05-22-2002, 09:35 AM:
     
    To say that Attack of the Clones lost anything is kind of reaching. Yes, maybe Spiderman may gross more, and it clearly delivers the goods of a excellent movie. Yet Star Wars did over 100 million for the four days, which was the goal of Lucas/Fox, and has CinemaScores and word of mouth that look to place it above Phantom Menace grosses when all is said and done. How many franchises have that kind of long staying power after all these years? Fox and Lucasfilm are very happy, I am sure.
     
    Posted by Greg Mueller (Member # 17) on 05-22-2002, 10:03 AM:
     
    Are SW's numbers based on worldwide opening revenue? Or just US? From the comments I've heard, Spiderman hasn't opened in many countries that SW has. So if they are giving total income figures on SW based on world wide figures and Spiderman based only on US, that would make things kind of lopsided.
    Anyone know?

    ------------------
    Greg Mueller
    Amateur Astronomer, Machinist, Filmnut http://www.muellersatomics.com/


     


    Posted by Aldo Baez (Member # 790) on 05-22-2002, 01:21 PM:
     
    Worldwide was 186 million, U.S. was 110 million. I think it said Spiderman rest of the world did 63 million while Star wars did 66.

    And star wars has not opened in many countries so it's not a world worldwide.
     


    Posted by Greg Mueller (Member # 17) on 05-22-2002, 01:51 PM:
     
    "With an additional $66.7 million in box office receipts from 74 other countries, "Episode II" made $177 million worldwide."

    74 other countries.... that's pretty world wide I'd say

    ------------------
    Greg Mueller
    Amateur Astronomer, Machinist, Filmnut
    http://www.muellersatomics.com/
     


    Posted by Aldo Baez (Member # 790) on 05-22-2002, 05:28 PM:
     
    True, but it has not opened in Mexico/Latin America, Japan, South korea, india. All of which are pretty major markets.
     
    Posted by Charles Everett (Member # 889) on 05-26-2002, 06:50 PM:
     
    First week (7 days) of Spider-Man: $151,622,504.

    First week (7 days) of Star Wars Episode 2: $134,869,203.

    The winner and still champion: Spider-Man!

    Not only that, Spider-Man is in 3,876 theaters in US/Canada this Memorial Day weekend -- another new record!

    FWIW all numbers quoted are US/Canada totals via Box Office Mojo.
     


    Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 05-29-2002, 12:22 PM:
     
    The new Entertainment Weekly has a banner headline on the cover: "Can Star Wars squash Spidey?"

    A month ago I'd have never thought such a headline was possible, but now it's looking more and more like Spidey will win out.

    I love it!
     


    Posted by Greg Anderson (Member # 235) on 05-29-2002, 02:52 PM:
     
    It's still an apples-to-oranges situation... but I'll play along for a moment.

    Suppose this Spider-man franchise continues to be a huge success for years to come. I guarantee that no matter how bad you think the fifth Star Wars movie is, if they ever make a fifth Spider-man movie it will be absolute rubbish. (If this actually happens, I'm willing to return to this same thread many years from now to say "I told you so.")

    So... you don't like Star Wars. Big deal. You don't need Spider-man to prove your point.
     


    Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 06-09-2002, 01:56 PM:
     
    I have nothing against Star Wars. As a movie fan, I'm neutral about the whole thing. I'm not a sci-fi buff, but anything that puts a lot of butts in the seats is just fine by me.

    I just think it's hilarious that a film like Spider-Man can come out of left field and knock the hell out of a Star Wars movie when everyone in the whole industry would've bet their Beemers it would never happen.

    I also have to admit to being somewhat resentful of the whole Star Wars thing for one big reason: We can't play the damn movie yet. I own a single screen in a small town, and because we fall under Fox's "Low grossing" policy, we have not been informed yet when we will get to play Star Wars II. It could be July...might not be until August. We just don't know and they will not say yet. We're probably looking at waiting until at least 8 or 10 weeks after the break. Meanwhile our audience is getting frustrated and impatient, possibly losing interest in seeing it, or deciding to wait for the video.

    In contrast, we already played Spider-Man, not on the break but only 3 weeks in, and did very well with it. We play most movies either on the break or within the first 4 weeks...but not Fox movies.

    If the Star Wars series were released by any other studio, we'd probably be playing EPII right now instead of having to guess when we might get it. Very frustrating for me AND my customers.
     


    Posted by Adam Fraser (Member # 1074) on 06-10-2002, 12:16 AM:
     
    Mike,
    Add on to that Star Wars is still at 70%/60% for a two week run even after the 3 weeks that it has been out.

    ------------------
    Adam Fraser
    www.pinestheatre.com
     


    Posted by Paul G. Thompson (Member # 655) on 06-10-2002, 12:46 AM:
     
    Bah! I was tracking it for a while, but I forgot my real goal was, which is to present a movie so the customers can enjoy it. I don't care what the movie is, its title, or what it is about. I just run them - I don't watch them.

    I just start the movie when it is time, and that's it. If there is a problem with a presentation, I want to know what auditorium. I am not interested in the title of the movie. Titles are meaningless to me while I am running a booth. I go by numbers and my time table, not the name of the movie.

    As they say in the navy, "Don't sweat the petty shit."


     






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