Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: What gross do you give to the 'ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND' ?

This is topic What gross do you give to the 'ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND' ? in forum Ground Level at Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE.

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Posted by Kamakshipalya Dhananjay (Member # 1391) on 03-16-2004, 08:19 AM:

I give mine here.

A 100 million plus in its entire run - theatrical, North America.

Before edit, it was 'A 100 million in its...'

Posted by Mike Spaeth (Member # 524) on 03-16-2004, 08:37 AM:

No way - $40,000,000 at best

Posted by Richard Greco (Member # 2032) on 03-16-2004, 08:54 AM:

I think since it is a limited release here, maybe 20 million at best. 40 mil if it was a wide release.

Posted by Bill Gabel (Member # 1105) on 03-16-2004, 10:08 AM:

This is not your regular Jim Carrey movie. I've been running it for the last month and a half here in New York. I would say 30 and maybe top off at 40 million. But it will be a long haul to hit 40.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 03-16-2004, 12:41 PM:

Movies with such funky titles as that almost never do well.

Posted by Greg Anderson (Member # 235) on 03-16-2004, 04:54 PM:

Take at look at this web page and examine the recent box office history of Jim Carrey's "serious" and/or "quirky" movies as opposed to the wacky movies the public expects from him. I'd say the financial prospects for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind aren't very promising. There won't be any interlocking necessary on this one.

Posted by Floyd Justin Newton (Member # 1316) on 03-16-2004, 04:55 PM:

Here we go again. .."projecting" what a gross will be. It will
be 'what it is... when it is'. Nothing more, nothing less.

fjn

Posted by Pravin Ratnam (Member # 1417) on 03-17-2004, 01:55 AM:

Well, i think Carrey's opening week will be decent. Let's not forget that this month has pretty much a bunch of crap in theaters. There is nothing other than Passion competing for those dollars. No competition for the middle aged viewers. Dawn of the Dead will atract the action crowd.

The only problem is there is hardly any tv advertising. most of the ads are for Ladykillers. Yeah, and 100M is unlikely. Punch Drunk Love did miserably despite being a very good movie. All of Wes Anderson movies havent done well despite being pretty good. I doubt this movie can break the trend by such a huge margin.

Posted by Eric Hooper (Member # 1730) on 03-17-2004, 11:18 AM:

Here in SF it's being heavily promoted with full page color ads in the artsy street rags and newspapers...

Posted by Thomas Procyk (Member # 1170) on 03-18-2004, 09:54 AM:

Limited?!? The commercials say "Starts Friday in theaters EVERYWHERE." -- usually they say Select Cities or something. Strange. But around these parts, everyone gets every movie unless its an arthouse release. There's no such thing as "limited" when all you have are 24+ screen theaters around [Frown]

quote:
Movies with such funky titles as that almost never do well.

"The Englishman who went Up a Hill but came Down a Mountain" comes to mind. [Wink]

=TMP=

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 03-18-2004, 01:24 PM:

What's the deal with all these long movie titles anyway? Don't the makers realize that they're going to get all abreviated to hell?

ETERNAL SUNSHINE
PIRATES OF CARIB.
LOTR:RETURN KING
PASSION CHRIST
TEEN DRAMA QUEEN

etc.

I long for the nice short titles such as "10" and "XXX" and "DR. NO". (Of course that's because I am the head of the marquee department!)

Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 03-18-2004, 02:13 PM:

The previous two movies by this creator, "bieng john malkovich" and "adaptation", while very good movies, did not do very well at all at the box office.

What makes this movie different is Jim Carrey. He has proven that he can do serious film, and also has proven that he can do more comedy driven fare, as evidenced by his last movie and box office blockbuster, "Bruce Almighty".

Coming off of that film will definately help "eternal sunshine", as will major critical aclaim that it is getting, and the constant talk of the previous work of this film maker and that Jim Carrey is trying to get his oscar nod.

Quirky films have often started off very poorly only to surpass everyones wildest imaginations. One film comes to mind, "my big fat greek wedding". This film grew and grew and grew until is surpassed 200 million in grosses, and it took an awfully long time to do this. I didn't even see it until last month.

This film has the 'potential' to do very well, but don't confuse that with it will do well. Because the studio is putting it into much wider release than any arthouse movie would ever get shows that they are fearful that people will see it for art fare and avoid it like the plauge, missing out on a real treat of a movie.

I think it will do very well in its opening week, possibly ranging in the $20 million range, then it will hover at about 3 million a week for about 15 weeks before it hits dvd. Total grosses domestically should total about $65 million and that is a very GENEROUS estimation on my part. If it does any more than this I will torture myself and go see "idle hands" one more time and promise not to shoot myself until it is over.

Ciao

Dave

Posted by Kamakshipalya Dhananjay (Member # 1391) on 03-24-2004, 08:47 AM:

Excellent average per venue. Looks like it will steadily hold into week 2.

Daily Box office

Posted by Kamakshipalya Dhananjay (Member # 1391) on 03-25-2004, 11:18 PM:

Well, the prospects seem far brighter in week 2 for this film. No decrease in the theatre count.

Both Scooby-doo 2 and Ladykillers are carrying very poor reviews and even the general audience reviews for both these films are very disappointing.

Dawn of the Dead and Taking Lives are losing steam too fast and I think, the two films that will benefit out of the whole fiasco will be PASSION and ETERNAL SUNSHINE.

Per venue average on Wednesday for ETERNAL SUNSHINE is the highest of all. Already, this film is within the top 100 films of all time on IMDB.Com. Cant deny that the audience have loved this movie indeed.

So, waiting to see that 100 million for this film.

Posted by Pravin Ratnam (Member # 1417) on 03-26-2004, 07:53 PM:

Sorry, not even close to 100M. People are not as enthusiastic about this movie as the critics even if you won't get befuddled looks like the ones you saw from the teens who went to see Punch Drunk Love. I wouldnt pay that much attention to the theater average as this movie is shown in most neighborhoods. Patrons will just try to find this movie in a theater an extra 2 miles away. This is not the kind of movie that will get casual viewers past the first week.

I think 40-50M is more likely. No way this movie makes anywhere close to 100M. I am willing to even wager money .

And Dave, I would not even classify My Big Fat Greek Wedding as anything remotely quirky like this movie. Lost In Translation needed an awards boost to up its grosses and even that movie was nowhere as complex as this movie.

Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 03-27-2004, 04:31 PM:

quote:
And Dave, I would not even classify My Big Fat Greek Wedding as anything remotely quirky like this movie. Lost In Translation needed an awards boost to up its grosses and even that movie was nowhere as complex as this movie.

And you think "my big fat greek wedding" would have had gangbuster business if rolled out on 3000 screens? Not a chance in heck! It took a very long time on a very careful rollout to achieve its grosses. It was no two month deal.

And if you are saying that wedding is not as quirky as sunshine, therefore it isn't quirky, I mean what the heck! I am quirky but not nearly as quirky as jim carrey, but still quirky!

All I meant by what I originally said is that wedding was a quirkly little movie that went on to be a blockbuster. If sunshine did the same kind of 225 million dollar business that wedding did, would it no longer be quirky?

Of course to be quirky something must be strikingly unconventional, unpredictable or unaccountable to a standard act or event.

Ciao

dave

Posted by Kamakshipalya Dhananjay (Member # 1391) on 04-08-2004, 11:53 PM:

I admit I was wrong. Am wrong still.

This film will not make a 100 million, no matter what.

Anyway, I am glad I learnt a few lessons with this film and the way it was handled -

1. Never ever assume a distributor will deliver. Most distributors may not. At least, FOCUS rarely, if ever, does.

2. Some distributors always yearn for poor acceptance as if it is a mark of their superiority over others who crave for widespread acceptance. Know these distributors always and stay away from proving to yourself or to anybody else that they will be wrong. They never are - they will always win.

Thanks to this film. Lessons learnt.

Posted by Pravin Ratnam (Member # 1417) on 04-09-2004, 02:28 AM:

The film was marketed fine with a great trailer. A lot of moviegoers have not taken a great liking to movies of this tempo and nature - Punch Drunk Love, Wes Anderson movies. In fact, people who are renting Lost In Translation are hating this movie despite the fact that theater goers liked the movie in general.

If anything, it should have been a slow rollout like Lost In Translation.

You want bad marketing? Look at how Miramax shafted Kill Bill Vol 2. The vol 2 teaser took forever to roll out and most theaters placed it at the beginning making most of us miss it. I think i have seen the Van Helsing, Hellboy, Man on FIre trailers 10 or 15 times already while I have seen the Kill Bill teaser just once and they haven't come up with a regular theatrical trailer which could have indirectly spurred DVD rentals. And guess when they are releasing the KB1 DVD. Just 3 days before KB2. How is that going to build enough extra viewers who may potentially want to watch KB2 in theaters? And Miramax hasn't still updated their KB2 website to reflect the new TV spots or make other features operational. Let's not forget that Miramax missed putting a kill bill trailer before Once Upon A Time In Mexico , a very natural tie in .

Posted by Kamakshipalya Dhananjay (Member # 1391) on 04-09-2004, 08:30 AM:

I completely agree on that for Kill Bill Vol.2.

ALmost everything that was done for it and whatever is being now for that film (including the DVD launch of Vol.1) is unsuspectingly vicious.

Quentin Tarantino does not make films every year. And the one he makes like KILL BILL Vol.1 unmistakably prove that the two hours or so of screen time comes after months or even years of thought, hard work and determination. KIll BILL Vol.1 is already thought to be a classic and Vol.2 cannot stay far behind for both were shot together.

MIRAMAX is killing Vol.2. Anybody is bound to agree on that. Vol.2 will mostly do poor business at theatres and all blame for that should squarely rest on MIRAMAX.

But should not film-makers retain any say over how their works are handled in later stages ? Or is good marketing skills so scarcely distributed amongst distributors that the need to equip distributors with independence is far greater than to equip film-makers with the power to monitor the marketing of their films - such that even if all film-makers simply got all the freedom they wanted, the scarcity of good marketers simply translates to fewer successes and more failures. And some bad deals like a talented film-maker struck with a patchy distributor. Much like it currently is. For Kill Bill Vol.2.

In a way, what is happening now is statistically and probablistically inevitable.

In the end, God bless MIRAMAX and KILL BILL Vol.2.

"KILL BILL Vol.2 deserves SUCCESS and MIRAMAX deserves to pull a miracle to save KILL BILL Vol.2"

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 04-09-2004, 01:16 PM:

So you think film companies intentionally undermarket films that they've spent millions of dollars to make?

Marketing dollars and effort are spent in proportion to the number of people they "think" will want to see the movie.

Posted by Bill Gabel (Member # 1105) on 04-09-2004, 04:04 PM:

quote:
Never ever assume a distributor will deliver, Most distributors may not. At least Focus rarely, if ever, does.

Focus Features backs their films all the way. The main problem with "Eternal Sunshine..." was that the film-makers did not deliver a final cut to them till late. The director and DP and Post-Production were still tinkering on final FX shots and final release printing with Deluxe.
Right now we are finishing up on "Vanity Fair" for Focus. We have another film that is working on meeting it's release date, but it may not. ("Stepford Wives" for Paramount).

With the Academy Awards show moved up like last year's. Focus has booked about 90% of their Guild/Academy screenings for New York as of last week. For starting in the end of August till January '05.

Posted by Richard Fowler (Member # 893) on 04-10-2004, 07:15 AM:

Great film...a few walk outs from a couple people in a full house who where physically my age but not mentally. Interesting to know the budget and final profit this film will make.

Posted by Dan Lyons (Member # 1454) on 04-10-2004, 02:31 PM:

I fail to see the point of threads like this. Why play silly guessing games? Is this just an excuse to up your posts? [Mad]

Posted by Richard Fowler (Member # 893) on 04-10-2004, 04:01 PM:

Danny, since K.D. is a cinema owner part of the game of is to guess and evaluate a movie's ( product ) merit and income potential. Silly for some but lifeblood for others [Wink]

Look at the trade magazine put out by NATO ( National Association of Theater Owners ) they run charts on film gross capabilty based on genre and who are the stars / performers.....No wonder the convention is in Las Vegas [Big Grin]

Posted by Kamakshipalya Dhananjay (Member # 1391) on 04-12-2004, 01:38 AM:

Wow ! What a weekend Average !

Third best amongst all holdovers ! If only Exhibitors retain this one, they will notice this movie has a lot of staying power.

The remarkable fact about this film is that those who have not liked this film have simply not liked while those who have liked have liked this film so much, they are writing everywhere about this film. So, I expect business will stay steady for a few more days for this one.

Comparing the top 14 films this weekend, I feel that from Monday through Thursday, this film could well break into the top 3 in terms of average per theatre (excluding Dogville, of course). All new releases just this weekend are going to race deep into bottom list on the rank card.

By the way, Bill Gabel, please tell us some about Stepford wives. I think this film could turn out very well given the story and who they have at the lead. Nicole Kidman seems just the right woman to summarise the predicament of a witness to the machinisation of a neighbourhood.

Posted by Paul Linfesty (Member # 214) on 04-12-2004, 02:20 AM:

quote:
Third best amongst all holdovers !

It IS?

According to the top 12 of boxoffice on Yahoo, it doesn't even place, and there are seven hold-overs on the top 12 list.

Posted by Kamakshipalya Dhananjay (Member # 1391) on 04-12-2004, 11:54 PM:

Not as absolute numbers. But as a theatre average.

Posted by Paul Linfesty (Member # 214) on 04-13-2004, 01:33 AM:

Keep in mind thattheatre averages are deceptive. They only really work if all movies are playing in similiar situations. When you eliminate lower grossing sites and markets (which this film has done) you are removing locations that would lower the average gross. But if you look at the grosses of this film at a particular megaplex and compare it to the grosses of the other movies playing at the same megaplex, I'll bet the results will not be as favorable.

I have to add that this in no way should reflect on the particular quality of this film. I definitely wanted to see it, but these "per screen average" grosses were not strong enough to keep it in the megas in my town more than a couple of weeks, so I missed it.

Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 04-13-2004, 08:44 PM:

quote:
I fail to see the point of threads like this. Why play silly guessing games? Is this just an excuse to up your posts?

If you see posts as a violation of forum rules then feel free to contact a forum moderator or administrator with your complaint. I didn't see any complaint to you upping your post count by responding to a post you saw as pointless. [evil]

People often create topics of concern that are near and dear to thier heart, and perhaps not to others. Since this is the ground level for operators and managers, I fail to see the pointlessness of trying to guage what certain movies will do at the boxoffice, considering we are in the business of showing movies, it kind of makes sense.

I am in no way an authority here on this site, besides I wouldn't want the headache of having to teach you mere mortals lessons on a daily basis, mostly because I am never wrong. [evil]

Just chill on what could be percieved as an attack. we have had much of that and it only causes pain and heartbreak. We are a big happy family here, lets all hug and kiss. [puke]

Ciao

Dave

Posted by Kamakshipalya Dhananjay (Member # 1391) on 04-14-2004, 07:34 AM:

Well, it is somewhat harmless anyway if a few assume that what is under discussion is not of much relevance to what they do and state so.

But I wish to point out that sites such as Boxofficemojo.com and Boxofficeprophets.com feature people whose average prediction accuracy in the long term exceeds 85 %. People from all over the world, mind you, I mean lay people and not people who have anything to to do with the Motion Picture Industry participate in the weekly derbies hosted at Boxofficemojo.com and it is really astonishing that so many people around the world come very close each week to predicting the North American grosses for a week. So, it is undoubtedly harmless for people in the trade to try and catch up with skills that are not entirely elusive.

Posted by Kamakshipalya Dhananjay (Member # 1391) on 04-29-2004, 01:21 AM:

Anybody impressed with the daily average for this film ?

Seems like it deserves to stay at the current count of 500 theatres for a few more weeks.

On Tuesday, it has the fourth best daily average.

Posted by Pravin Ratnam (Member # 1417) on 04-30-2004, 01:38 AM:

I think you are giving too much attention to the averages for this movie. As I mentioned earlier, movies like this and Ladykillers were shown in most neighborhoods where people would go to see these movies. If you increase the theater counts, all that would happen is the average would fall significantly.

By the way , my 380M estimate for Passion is looking good at this point.