Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: Screen to Population statistic source

This is topic Screen to Population statistic source in forum Ground Level at Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE.

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Posted by Dan Chilton (Member # 2288) on 04-30-2004, 12:02 PM:

I've heard several people bat around the statistic that a town should be able to sustain 1 screen per 10,000 people. Does anyone know where this statistic comes from? Is it a NATO estimate? Where could I find a hard version of it for citation?

Posted by Ken Layton (Member # 133) on 04-30-2004, 06:35 PM:

It's an old rule-of-thumb from way back. I don't know it's origin. I would suggest checking at www.bigscreenbiz.com forums.

Posted by David Favel (Member # 1125) on 05-02-2004, 01:59 AM:

And then you come up with variations like colleges & schools that alter the numbers.

Posted by Dennis Benjamin (Member # 1137) on 05-02-2004, 07:16 AM:

I have always been told that if a town can support a Wal-Mart, it can support a 6 screen theatre. The only 'stats' I know can be obtained from the 2000 MPAA economic survey that found that the national average for moviegoing was 5 times a year. I find it amazing that the 'average' American only goes to see a movie in a theatre 5 times in one year. I also know that a town has to have a population of 35,000 or more for Wal-Mart to consider building a store. Most major theatre chains won't look at a market until there is 50,000 people or more living there. The obvious reason is that they want to build more than six screens nowadays.

Of course with all the info you have above, you can figure other stuff out by doing the math....................

Posted by Ken Layton (Member # 133) on 05-02-2004, 11:49 AM:

Speaking of Wal-Mart, the city of Shelton, Wash. has a Wal-mart store and the town only has a population of 7,000. If you count the outlying areas population you might be able to figure a total of 15,000 people. I don't see how this particular Wal-mart manages to stay open let alone the twin indoor theater in town and the drive-in theater.

Posted by Greg Pauley (Member # 503) on 05-02-2004, 05:19 PM:

Hard to look at an area based on the population only. Not all areas are considered equal. If one site has a population of 35,000 people with a low retail spending index of let say 60 and another site has the same population with a index of 110 then the second site is going to be a much better location. This is just a simple fact of disposable income. The more disposable income, the more often people attend movies. So an area of 35000 population with a high spending index might gross more in the box as an area with 45000 with a poorer population.

Posted by Sam Johnson II (Member # 2157) on 05-02-2004, 06:13 PM:

Stanford, KY only has a population of 3,430 people, with a Supercenter Wal-Mart on the way. Actually, the whole county only has a population of about 23,000.

There's a drive-in in the town, but I'm not sure how much business they get. I've only been there once to see The Two Towers and A Man Apart, and it looked like there was a good crowd there. I don't think the town could handle a theater though, considering there's a theater 10 miles down the road (it's a Carmike though [Roll Eyes]

), and another theater opening this Friday.

Posted by Ray Kaufman (Member # 2351) on 05-02-2004, 06:15 PM:

I agree with Greg and then some. I learned the hard way nearly 15 years ago. My owner decided on opening a a second location in a former Jerry Lewis theatre He leased this place, to open as an art house and figured with over a 100,000 population within 5 to 7 miles of the theatre, we could expect a minimum 1000 visits per week, a simple 1% if you will. When after a month of being open, with bundles of revelry and hoopla and all the proper PR and exploitation, we averaged fewer than 50 admits per 2 shows per evening each week night. I did some basic research and came to the conclusion we were in the wrong location and should move about 10 miles up the road. First, we were in a decidedly rural area, heavy with active farms. The average household income was high, well above average in fact, but the education level was well below the mean. This area was very well off blue collar. The college educated average was hovering somewhere close to 15% and in this day and age, the arts are generally introduced and nurtured through a college experience. I'd actually found a better location, closer to the type of population mix suited to an art theatre, but the owner, after 14 months, opted to shut down.

For my money, I'd want to fit the theatre, after doing considerable research, to the type of potential audience. It's not about numbers of people as much as it's about numbers of types of people. How many live in the area within what age brackets. Heavily family, retired, singles? Level of education. Blue collar, white collar, a mix and to what degree?

Is it really about income? Longshore workers are some of the highest paid workers in the country. But getting them to see Respiro or Cinema Paradiso, doubtful. Sometimes, there's more so-called discretionary money in a lower income bracket. Ever hear the term "house poor?"

There's a lot to consider, a whole lot.

Posted by Greg Pauley (Member # 503) on 05-02-2004, 06:42 PM:

Walmart is working with a much larger trade area whenever they look at building a store. They are not looking at a population in the 10 to 15 minute drive time, more of 80 mile radius in some locations. I don't think most theatre could count on pulling a majority of population that far out like walmart apparently does. I don't agree that any town that has a walmart can support a theatre for this reason. The further out the population from the theatre location, the fewer times they visit the movie theatre. This may be due to the hassle of driving to the location, but I think you start to see those people using the local video rental store instead of the movie theatre. I agree with Ray on education level, the more educated population attend movies more often. Also, the education level and disposable income levels seem to go hand in hand.

Posted by Richard Fowler (Member # 893) on 05-02-2004, 07:23 PM:

I serviced and help close or do insurance claims ( can't make money, let us burn it down, whoops fire retardant drapes sure burn slow ) on quite a few Jerry Lewis locations....many where located on property bought for price only with no consideration of the demographics of the area. 15,000 per auditorium, 12 - 30 year old patrons, educational institutions, other passive recreation that is non-competitive should be in the mix.....the USA is overbuilt with too many gas ( cinemas ) stations on every corner [Frown]

Posted by Martin Brooks (Member # 1269) on 05-05-2004, 09:13 PM:

New York City has about 15,000 people per screen and over 100,000 people per theater...some people think NYC is still under-screened, although the density varies per borough: Manhattan has about 6800 people per screen and 40,000 per theater and the Bronx has about 30,000 people per screen and over 334,000 per theater.

By comparison, Philadelphia has about 7800 people per screen and 46,000 per theater and Boston has about 6000 people per screen and 37,000 per theater.

Posted by David M. Dorn (Member # 2298) on 05-07-2004, 09:28 PM:

Another factor is the availability of competing events and venues.

In the rural area of West Texas where I grew up, the theater or drive-in were the options if you did not want to stay home and watch TV. The nearest towns with any real competition were 40 to 89 miles away.

I also lived in NYC for 20 years....Martin's numbers reminded me of this...in Manhattan you walk out your door have so many competing opportunities for your time. Two major league baseball teams, hockey, etc., or just going to a restaurant for a long leisurely dinner. Or an evening down at the pub. As much as I like film, it more often than not lost out.

Posted by David Kilderry (Member # 142) on 05-08-2004, 06:30 AM:

The same holds true for most westernised countries, here in Australia it is 1 screen per 10,000 population and about 4.5 visits per year. Most towns of this size would have a larger surrounding population, but that is the rule of thumb. These statistics can be obtained by your motion picture distributors association. You will have to pay for a report most likely. They may also be available from various industry consultants. Some government agencies also have stats. on such things.

A town where a university is established however would be preferable to a town where all the young people head to the cities, so pure numbers are not the only guide as others have pointed out.

We have three multiplexes within 10 mins, yet our drive-in gets first run and competes favourably. We draw customers from much further than they do, being the only drive-in on the east side of a city of almost 4 million.

David