Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: Which looks better - THE INCREDIBLES or THE POLAR EXPRESS?

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Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 08-23-2004, 06:42 PM:

Put yourself in my shoes.

You've got a single screen and you could play either one of those movies on the break.

Which do you pick?

Posted by Dennis Benjamin (Member # 1137) on 08-23-2004, 06:52 PM:

Polar Express

Apparently this was (is) a VERY popular Children's book.

Of course - we will play both [Wink]

at my location.

Posted by Dustin Mitchell (Member # 372) on 08-23-2004, 07:51 PM:

Its a tough call. Pixar hasn't had a dud yet. Incredibles is likely the 'safer' bet but who knows how well Polar Express will do.

Posted by Brad Miller (Member # 2) on 08-23-2004, 08:46 PM:

Both will do well, but you want to know which will do better? The Incredibles. Just you watch.

Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 08-23-2004, 08:55 PM:

I'm with you on that one brad. The picture just looks, well, incredible. It will be pixars best to date, and is going to make ungodly sums of cash. Go with incredibles, it is more than safe.

Polar express will do also very well, but will play mostly to parents with children in tow, where as the incredibles will play to a much wider and more receptive teen audience that has money to blow on popcorn and other odd crapities.

Ciao

Dave

Posted by Mike Olpin (Member # 1115) on 08-23-2004, 09:43 PM:

Incredibles. (What did you think I would say?)
Brad Bird + PIXAR. It's like an animators wet dream.

Polar Express looks like it has terrific visuals, but it would be difficult to take that short book and expand it into two hours. But who knows? Shrek was also a short childrens book.

Posted by Rachel Gilardi (Member # 1016) on 08-23-2004, 10:34 PM:

The Incredibles look awesome, but ask someone that has a kid.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 08-23-2004, 11:29 PM:

IMHO, go with "The Incredibles." You don't have to be knowledgeable about a book or series of books as it appears with "Polar Express." Anything Pixar makes is going to draw a large audience, across both youth and adult demographics.

Posted by Jason Black (Member # 684) on 08-23-2004, 11:49 PM:

Mike,

Pixar and 'The Incredibles', no doubts. This film has a more 'mass appeal' to it than Polar Express due to the fact it comes from PIXAR. Patrons ALWASY comment on how well they like PIXAR films.. from scripting to visual effects..

You can't go wrong!

Posted by Dennis Benjamin (Member # 1137) on 08-24-2004, 06:28 AM:

I still think that the "Polar Express" will outgross "The Incredibles".

WOW! -Right? All you guys think that won't happen!

Robert Zemeckis + Tom Hanks + Holiday Release Date = $$$$$$

"The Incredibles" opens on November 5th, "Polar Express" opens November 10th.

Let's sit back and see which one does better.

I think that Polar will surprise everyone. In the end I really think there grosses will be close. Polar should carry all the way into January, where Incredibles won't last through X-Mas.

Posted by Eric Hooper (Member # 1730) on 08-24-2004, 11:14 AM:

Incredibles is going to kick Polar Express's ass...

Posted by Bob Brown (Member # 1205) on 08-24-2004, 11:23 AM:

Polar Express will also be released in IMAX 3D, Day and Date [Eek!]

. So with this into play, I think POLAR will out gross THE INCREDIBLES.

Posted by Eric Hooper (Member # 1730) on 08-24-2004, 01:36 PM:

Well, that's my point. Polar Express will be front loaded.

Posted by Brian Michael Weidemann (Member # 2243) on 08-24-2004, 04:50 PM:

Part of me is thinking that Polar Express is going to flop (perhaps wishful thinking, perhaps just plain cynicism). It looks completely "market research"-driven. Throw in a few big names and a "safe" story and there's no reason it won't do well ... but then it won't. All I know is what is in the trailer (the IMAX spot I've seen millions of times), and it just doesn't look good to me. The first time I saw the spot, I wasn't impressed, nor compelled to view it at all.

I think Pixar has things figured out a bit.

Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 08-24-2004, 07:53 PM:

quote:
Robert Zemeckis + Tom Hanks + Holiday Release Date = $$$$$$

The last three films of Robert Zemeckis
Cast Away $234 Million
What Lies Beneath $155 Million
Contact $101 Million

The last three films of Tom Hanks
The Terminal $77 Million
The Ladykillers $40 Million
Catch me if you can $165 Million

The only film of Brad Bird
The Iron Giant $23 Million

The last three films of Pixar
Finding Nemo $340 Million
Monsters Inc $256 Million
Toy Story 2 $246 Million

The bit here is to show that yes, bob zemeckis has money power, but he nor has tom hanks really done this kind of work before. Thier business has always been aimed at the young adult and older crowd. Now they are trying to hit the very young audience with this and I really do not think it will do much more than 100 million, where as the incredibles by pixar could easily strike 300 million with its arms tied behind its back.

The preview is not enought to get people excited about it, and frankly, there just aren't that many people who even know of the books existence.

Incredibles with pixar's magic, brad birds excellent direction, and disney's incredible marketing and distribution power, will plow the polar express BACK to the north pole where it belongs.

CIAO

Dave

Posted by Steve Guttag (Member # 268) on 08-24-2004, 08:30 PM:

Hey, Tom Hanks was one of the voices for Toy Story 2!!!

Also, you need to adjust the monies for the inflated ticket prices of the later films.

Tom Hanks and Zemeckis do pack a whallop as a team. Forrest Gump, Cast Away come to mind.

Steve

Posted by Mark J. Marshall (Member # 1409) on 08-25-2004, 01:24 AM:

I'll go way out on a limb.... Polar Express looks really boring to me. And I have it on good authority from someone in that film's target audience that the book is boring too - especially when they were forced to read it in first grade. I don't see it coming close to $100 million, Tom Hanks or not.

Incredibles will easily do that.

That's my bold prediction. We'll see! [Wink]

Posted by Steve Scott (Member # 630) on 08-25-2004, 10:31 AM:

Did anybody else see the early trailer for Polar Express where Tom Hanks was doing all of the voices? [Eek!]

By the second trailer, they had different voices (although the dialouge from the new voices seemed really rough compared to Hanks' parts)

They were either A: Lacking the child actors and really wanted to release an early trailer; or B: Trying to create a feel like Tom Hanks is a father reading the book to all the kids of the world [Roll Eyes]

Anyway, Incredibles will kick box office ass. Disney usually wins [Roll Eyes]

Posted by Robert L. Fischer (Member # 2424) on 08-28-2004, 05:55 AM:

The Incredibles -- $260 - $300 million
Polar Express -- $140 - $180 million

Posted by Dean Kollet (Member # 1789) on 08-28-2004, 09:52 AM:

Incedibles will gross in the high 200's
Polar Express will merely break 200

Posted by Mark J. Marshall (Member # 1409) on 08-31-2004, 11:26 AM:

quote: Steve Scott
Disney usually wins

I think you mean PIXAR usually wins. [Wink]

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 08-31-2004, 11:49 AM:

Well thanks everyone, you made the decision easier. (I was leaning toward "Incredibles" anyway but with some of these children's book adaptations, you never know!)

Personally I think this Pixar film and the upcoming one "Cars" will get even more publicity than usual because of the impending end of their relationship with Disney. We'll see. (Although I'm still almost willing to bet that they'll kiss and make up at some point.)

Posted by Mike Olpin (Member # 1115) on 08-31-2004, 02:19 PM:

As the rumor goes, It may allready be hapening.
http://www.animated-news.com/archives/00001955.html

quote:
"Disney and Pixar: together again?"
The New York Post says that "Steve Jobs' Pixar Animation Studios is likely to renew a lucrative movie-making partnership with Disney. After bailing on Disney, Pixar held preliminary discussions with other studios, including MGM, Sony, Warner Bros. and Fox, [but] Jobs has come to believe that the best home for Pixar is at Disney after all, sources familiar with the matter said". There have been rumors that Disney/Pixar could be making an announcement as early as the San Diego Comic-Con, though it must be emphasized that it is pure speculation at this point.

Posted by Bill Gabel (Member # 1105) on 08-31-2004, 03:04 PM:

The "Incredibles" has Super Heroes [thumbsup]

"Polar Express" is a Musical Fantasy

I would say the "Incredibles".

Posted by Kevin Markwick (Member # 2698) on 09-25-2004, 12:32 PM:

If I only had one screen I'd go with The Incredibles. The Polar Express is going to run out of steam pretty quickly. Ha Ha.

Besides Pixar stuff tends to perform well in the evenings, wheras Polar Express skews towards smaller children. Couldn't you pick it up for early shows during the Christmas holidays and play something else at the same time? Are you guys allowed to do that sort of thing?

Posted by Ben Holley (Member # 2247) on 09-25-2004, 01:09 PM:

where is KD when you need him, he would know the answer for sure [Razz]

Posted by Manny Knowles (Member # 1171) on 09-25-2004, 05:28 PM:

POLAR EXPRESS comes off as a narcissistic experiment in photorealism. The trailer suggests a film that is soulless. THE INCREDIBLES, like any Pixar film, seems to embrace all of the possibilities of the medium, relying on an interesting "what if" premise instead of technical wizardry. Pixar's movies have a certain "look" about them. They don't look realistic, but the visuals always support an interesting, entertaining, satisfying, fast-paced, worthwhile story.

Watching that trailer for POLAR EXPRESS I could only note how looooong it took for anything to happen. Details, details everywhere. You can almost hear the artists saying, "Look! Look how much work went into this scene. Doesn't it look real?"

So fucking what?

You want realism? Shoot live-action. Or make a documentary. Or, better still, stay home and watch your neighbors.

Even if it's a good movie, POLAR EXPRESS will probably tank. My hunch is that the Pixar people are already putting together the "replacement outtake reel" for THE INCREDIBLES. If they release those new clips the same weekend that POLAR EXPRESS opens then it's all over.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 09-25-2004, 05:40 PM:

They wouldn't do that, because POLAR comes out just 5 days after INCREDIBLES. (Stupidest scheduling of 2004, if you ask me.)

FWIW, I think Pixar said they decided to quit doing "outtake" reels after Monsters Inc. because they don't want to do the same thing over and over.

Posted by Manny Knowles (Member # 1171) on 09-25-2004, 07:32 PM:

...doesn't mean they really won't do it...or come up with something to top that stunt...

Posted by Brad Allen (Member # 470) on 09-25-2004, 11:36 PM:

In the smaller markets, it's a cinch Incredibles will win hands down. I agree, Polar has never thrilled me.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 09-25-2004, 11:53 PM:

Y'know, I sort of lost interest in this thread, but I decided to come back only to make the statement on why exactly I lost interest in it:

Why in the living hell does it matter which movie makes more money? Um, Hello!?

Movies are NOT a sport. One movie is not a team unto itself scoring points against another movie. It is indeed very extremely possible for two movies released at nearly the same time to both make a huge shitload of money.

Perfect example of this? Go back to the summer of 1994. Both "The Lion King" and "Forrest Gump" each made over $300 million in domestic North American box office returns.

I'm just pointing this out because I think it is just plain arrogant, and a little stupid, to assume if "The Incredibles" is successful, then "Polar Express" must definitely tank. That's not any guarantee at all. I do think "The Incredibles" is going to have a more built-in audience thanks to the incredible track record of Pixar. But then I think "Polar Express" has a lot of potential as well. The movie just has to be hyped to the public properly. I hope the show does well. If I heard right, "Polar Express" is supposed to have an IMAX-3D version timed day-in-date with the standard 35mm version. If that is true, I have to give them points for ambition in presentation. It is a quality very sorely lacking in all the stupid hype about digital video projection -oh, I'm sorry, "D-Cinema".

Posted by Dustin Mitchell (Member # 372) on 09-26-2004, 12:30 AM:

Lion King and Forest Gump certainly had crossover but for the most part they played to different audiences. Incredibles and Polar Express are competing nearly head to head and have the exact same target audience-acutally as mentioned Incredibles will have a wider appeal than Polar likely.

Posted by Manny Knowles (Member # 1171) on 09-26-2004, 01:42 AM:

It's not arrogant to go around calling people stupid when -- just one post later -- it is pointed out that your example (from a whole decade ago) isn't analogous to the situation before us?

Reminder -- the immediate concern is that a one-screen theatre operator must choose only one of these two films and he's probably not the only one faced with this choice. Thus, it really does become a sort of 'sport' with a winner and a loser. The winner plays; the loser doesn't.

Posted by Brian Michael Weidemann (Member # 2243) on 09-26-2004, 04:36 AM:

Yes, IMAX 3-D, day and date. And about a month-and-a-half left and still, only here or there has anyone even "heard" about it. Where's the promotion? The only advertising our theatre has is the IMAX trailer for it (which is on Harry Potter, which we're not even playing any more). Other than that ... ?

And, I agree with Manny. Mr. Blakesley's original post merely asks which one might do better since his theatre's attendance will be affected; and of course he wishes to program the higher grossing movie.

quote: Bobby Henderson
I'm just pointing this out because I think it is just plain arrogant, and a little stupid, to assume if "The Incredibles" is successful, then "Polar Express" must definitely tank.

I think it just happens to be that some people believe one will do MUCH better than the other. But you're right: it doesn't necessarily mean that one's success means the other won't do well at all ... unless, as Dustin pointed out, that these two movies will attempt to "share" audiences a little more closely than Lion King and Forrest Gump did.

Posted by Kevin Markwick (Member # 2698) on 09-26-2004, 07:41 AM:

quote:

Why in the living hell does it matter which movie makes more money? Um, Hello!?

It matters a hell of a lot when your living depends on making the right decision.

Posted by Greg Davis (Member # 2687) on 09-26-2004, 12:12 PM:

I agree. I mean if we got something other than pirates last summer we wouldnt be in business now. I would have to say Incredibles, because people will see it just for the sake of it being a pixar. Its a comedy, and if you watch the Polar Express trailer it looks kinda... corny.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 09-26-2004, 12:30 PM:

Look, it's one thing for an independent theater to make a choice on which of the two movies to book.

It is another thing entirely to just pop off comments like "The Incredibles is going to kick Polar Express' ass." I stand by my assertion that it is indeed pretty stupid to assume that if one of these movies succeeds then the other must fail. I seem to recall Harry Potter and LOTR installments being released in the same season. There's been plenty of other successful science-fiction or action movie that have been released at times when other films of the same genre have done well.

The only thing that is going to doom "Polar Express" is if the movie itself sucks. And none of us know that.

Posted by Jeremy Fuentes (Member # 2135) on 09-26-2004, 12:57 PM:

Bobby, its not that it must fail, but I think the success of Incredibles will indeed contribute to it. Lets say that I have a 2 screen theater, and I will be showing Incredibles and Alexander opening the same day. They are both doing really well, and selling out nightly. Would it be smart for me to get rid of one of those prints for a movie that might do well, rather than 2 that are making a killing. I dont think it would a smart move. So I dont pick up Polar Express. Guess how much Polar Express made at my theater. Nothing. Compared to Incredibles selling out repeatedly. And thats just at my theater.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 09-26-2004, 09:35 PM:

Aside from the business concerns, it is just interesting to speculate and guess which movies will do business. Remember that online game, I forget the name of it, where you booked movies into pretend theatres and competed for points?

Anyway, we are going with Incredibles, and hopefully will play Polar over Thanksgiving, so with any luck it will be [Smile]

all around.

Posted by Mike Spaeth (Member # 524) on 09-26-2004, 11:02 PM:

Jeremy - good scenario - but they pushed Alexander back to 11/24

Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 11-28-2004, 01:24 PM:

quote: Mike Blakesley
Anyway, we are going with Incredibles, and hopefully will play Polar over Thanksgiving, so with any luck it will be all around.

So did you pick up Polar for thanksgiving weekend. I see that it picked up for that weekend up to about 20 mil, not enough to knock incredibles down however.

Incredibles at about 215
Polar at about 85

For me it is a sport, since I cannot actually run anymore and play the sports I like to play, so instead I like to guage money reaction to film and play it as a sport.

So there

Ciao baby

Dave

Posted by Brad Miller (Member # 2) on 11-28-2004, 05:13 PM:

quote: Brad Miller
Both will do well, but you want to know which will do better? The Incredibles. Just you watch.

Mmmmm, hmm. [Wink]

Posted by Justin West (Member # 920) on 11-28-2004, 08:10 PM:

Well, I just saw the Polar Express tonight...and it was a pretty good movie...excellent for kids for the Xmas season...but I have to tell you, there is the scene near the end where the young man is preparing to get off the train (as it has stopped at his house) and he is saying good-bye to a young black girl (who had befriended him during the trip)...and all of a sudden, a pattern of brown dots flashed on the screen, over the image! I wasn't "looking" for it but there it happened! CAP code, I assume? Too bad.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 11-29-2004, 12:36 PM:

Dave: No, we played "National Treasure" starting the 19th and through the weekend. It has done almost as well as Incredibles did for us! So it was definitely the right choice.

I think we are going to play Polar on the 10th. To me, the closer to Christmas the better. The rise in its gross over the Thanksgiving weekend may bear this out.

Posted by Barry Martin (Member # 1376) on 11-29-2004, 11:17 PM:

Mike we had the same situation, I really didn't want to let Incredibles go but didn't want to regret missing National either. Incredibles, Polar, and National have all done very well for us, thank goodness! Been a couple months since we really had a good drawing movie.