Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: DaVinci Code vs. Over the Hedge: Which will dominate?

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Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 04-20-2006, 08:35 PM:

I had sorta figured "Da Vinci Code" would be the blockbuster-to-beat for late May, but now here comes Premiere magazine predicting that Over The Hedge will be slightly bigger. ($180 mil, vs. their prediction of $170M for DaVinci.) As the owner of a single-screen, it's my annual dilemma: Which to open?

I like the idea of a virtually guaranteed kid audience for Hedge, but the prospect of a nice blockbuster for grownups (that's also a little controversial) is tempting. Thoughts?

Posted by Matt Fields (Member # 3211) on 04-20-2006, 09:10 PM:

I vote for Over the Hedge, but I don't know your audience. In my bible belt town, it will definetly be bigger than Da Vinci.

Posted by Matt Kerekes (Member # 2777) on 04-20-2006, 11:03 PM:

What if you tried Over the Hedge for 2 or 3 shows during the day and Da Vinci Code for 2 or 3 shows at night.

ie: OTH 10:30, 12:30, 2:30
DVC 4:30, 7:30, 10:30

??? Just a thought, maybe you would be required more showings in order to keep the movies?

Posted by Dustin Mitchell (Member # 372) on 04-20-2006, 11:10 PM:

I can't imagine Sony and Dreamworks not requiring Da Vinci and Hedge to run 'clean' on the first weekend. I suppose it wouldn't hurt to ask.

Personally I see Da Vinci doing a lot more than 170, but that's just me.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 04-21-2006, 02:52 AM:

quote: Matt Kerekes
What if you tried Over the Hedge for 2 or 3 shows during the day and Da Vinci Code for 2 or 3 shows at night.

There's no way either film co would allow that, and even if they would, school will still be on here so the grosses would suck for those matinees during the week.

As for our audience here....pretty mainstream, not overly religious. Our top-ten every year pretty much mirrors the nationwide top ten.

Posted by Matt Fields (Member # 3211) on 04-21-2006, 07:42 AM:

If you mirror the nation, you might want to consider Da Vinci. The scoop I've heard is that Sony expects it to do 250 mil.

Posted by Matt Kerekes (Member # 2777) on 04-21-2006, 07:44 AM:

I would go with Da Vinci also in that case, I think it will do better, there will always be another kid movie, but not a movie with as much surrounding it as Da Vinci Code.

Posted by Chad Souder (Member # 343) on 04-21-2006, 10:12 AM:

I would go with Hedge because matinee per caps are way higher. Parents always buy those little shits what they want to keep them from crying.

Posted by Jonathan M. Crist (Member # 413) on 04-21-2006, 11:31 AM:

Hedge will beat the pants off Divinci Code

Why?????

Well for starters look at what has been doing business this year. Only family and teen horror. But then again about the only thing Hollywood has released this year is family and teen horror.

And why has Hollywood focused on family and teen horror ?

Because that is the primary audience that still goes to movie theatres.

The older more sophisticated adults (e.g. those who can afford fancy home theatres) are simply waiting for the DVDS. And in the case of Divinci it is not a big special efffects laden thing that
might be viewed by this audience as playing better on the "big screen"

I see Hedge toping out at about 250 Million and Divinci at about 150 to 170.

Go with Hedge - At least that audience buys double buttered popcorns. It is one of the basic rules of booking ...... when in doubt book for the concession stand since as we all know that is where the money is made.

FWIW, here is how I see the summer ending up

Pirates 330
Cars 280
Hedge 250
Superman 225
X3 200
MI3 200**
Monster House 180
Davinci 150 - 170
Click 140

Poseidon & Miami Vice will both be DOA.

**If Tom Cruise keeps acting weird on the front pages then you may have to deduct 20% off this one.

Posted by Mike Spaeth (Member # 524) on 04-21-2006, 01:12 PM:

Davinci Code will be the better picture $220 mil vs. $130 mil.

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 04-21-2006, 01:31 PM:

I'd go with Da Vinci. The book was entertaining, the previews look good and it has Tom Hanks. On the other hand, IMHO Over the Hedge doesn't look good at all. Other than the Shrek franchise, have Dreamworks cartoons really performed that well? I realize I'm comparing a cartoon to an adult movie but I like cartoons. My fiancee and I go to see almost all of them.

Posted by Jeremy Jorgenson (Member # 2989) on 04-21-2006, 01:51 PM:

I'd go with The Da Vinci Code.

quote: Jonathan M. Crist
The older more sophisticated adults (e.g. those who can afford fancy home theatres) are simply waiting for the DVDS.

Except that, if there IS controversy, then "older more sophisticated adults" would prefer to see it sooner to have more insight if the topic of conversation ever comes up.

Posted by Ross Oba (Member # 3433) on 04-21-2006, 02:44 PM:

I have been hearing that DVC will have a moderate opening with strong legs. OTH might have a big opening but shorter legs.

Posted by Caleb Johnstone-Cowan (Member # 3710) on 04-21-2006, 06:41 PM:

If you're the only cinema for a while around then run Da Vinci Code in the first week it opens. It looks like a film where everyone will see it in the first week.

Then when school finishes you can run Over The Hedge and if Da Vinci Code is still doing well put it on the last showing if possible. Would definitely run Over The Hedge if your cinema does well on kids films.

Posted by Sam Graham (Member # 2889) on 04-21-2006, 09:28 PM:

I have a sneaking suspicion that Da Vinci is going to tank in a "King Kong" sort of way...It'll make money, but not nearly what the studio is thinking.

quote: Jonathan M Crist
If Tom Cruise keeps acting weird on the front pages then you may have to deduct 20% off this one.

You're being generous. MI3 is going to COMPLETELY bomb.

Posted by Matt Fields (Member # 3211) on 04-22-2006, 09:22 AM:

I've heard MI 3 is very good. I seriously doubt if it COMPLETELY bombs, though it may not be quite as popular as the first two.

Posted by Mark J. Marshall (Member # 1409) on 04-22-2006, 09:41 AM:

My prediction... Over the Hedge doesn't have a lot going for it. With DaVinci you have a movie based on a wild and crazy assed selling best selling novel. Everyone who hasn't read it knows at least one person who has. It's directed by Ron Howard, starring Tom Hanks. It has action, and adventure, and religion, and mystery, and probably some romance (I haven't made it that far in the book yet). All demographics will be represented in the audience for DaVinci. Over the Hedge is just another non-Pixar computer animated movie.

Seems like a no brainer to me.

[disclaimer] I've been wrong before! [Razz]

[/disclaimer]

Posted by Chad M Calpito (Member # 3736) on 04-22-2006, 11:44 AM:

That's a pretty good question, and to me, a tough one. I would most likely choose the DaVinci Code, though, I wouldn't see it myself. It just doesn't interest me.

Posted by Shane Cooper (Member # 2510) on 04-22-2006, 11:12 PM:

quote: Lyle Romer
Other than the Shrek franchise, have Dreamworks cartoons really performed that well?

Non-Shrek Dreamworks Animation releases:

Shark Tale - $160,861,908 domestic / $363,530,196 worldwide; Production budget was $75 Mil.

Robots - $128,200,012 domestic / $260,696,994 worldwide; Production budget was $75 Mil.

In case anyone was curious. "Performing well" is subjective, but these did open in March and October respectively.

I'd say that the area of the country that you live in and your audience should drive most of this decision.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 04-22-2006, 11:22 PM:

Robots was a Fox/Blue Sky Animation film. (Also, Robots was the March film and Shark Tale opened in October, not the other way around.)

Madagascar was a Dreamworks film however and did WAY better than Shark Tale.

Posted by Dominic Espinosa (Member # 2122) on 04-23-2006, 05:22 AM:

Over the Hedge for the following reasons:
- Younger audiences patronize the theaters more
- Parents and kids alike will enjoy it
- There are more kids than grown ups

However. They'll both do very well I'm sure and have long legs.
Just my $0.02

Posted by Barry Floyd (Member # 385) on 04-24-2006, 04:26 PM:

I've got a twin screen drive-in. We're probably gonna take "Posiedon" one week, break "Over the Hedge" the following week, and play it thru until "Cars". If "Da Vinci Code" ends up being huge, it'll still be huge a couple of weeks out when the terms will be more friendly. Our bread and butter is the minivan family crowds... and "Over the Hedge" will suit them just fine. In fact "Cars" and "Pirates" will probably be our biggest films all summer. Almost reminds me of the the Nemo & Pirates summer of 2003.

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 04-27-2006, 09:29 PM:

Has Pirates got a classification yet?

Posted by Ky Boyd (Member # 23) on 04-27-2006, 09:45 PM:

In terms of the number of trailers enclosed in recent movies it certainly seems like DaVinci has far outpaced Hedge, but being an arthouse my perspective is a bit skewed. We've been getting DaVinci code trailers with every new print we've received since December. I've got enough of em for a 15 plex at least. Enough already.

As for which will do better, I'm clueless. DaVinci is certainly in the news but the appeal seems more adult to me. I don't think it's gonna be a big film with the kids (teenagers). As for Hedge, unless its really good, it runs risk of being done in by the shear overload in terms of # of CGI animated pictures this year. It seems like everyone has at least two of them. Again, enough already.

Posted by Ryan Alley (Member # 1634) on 04-29-2006, 11:40 PM:

Although Cars will be the movie of the summer, and Over the Hedge is a kids movie...Da Vinci will dominate that weekend. But then die the next weekend as X-Men will dominate and Over the Hedge will still be going strong.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 04-30-2006, 08:57 PM:

I think Pirates will do better than Cars, although I think both will be huge.

I look for a quicker drop on Hedge than on DaVinci. Kids tend to flock to the opening weekend where the DaVinci crowd will be more spread out.

I think we're going to go with DaVinci, although I'm still reserving the right to change my mind at the last minute due to terms.

Posted by Jeremy Jorgenson (Member # 2989) on 05-26-2006, 04:56 PM:

What did you end up going with?

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 05-26-2006, 06:51 PM:

We went with DaVinci. It's done well, but not blockbuster for us. HOWEVER, there was a lot of stuff going on in town last weekend (high school graduation for one) so we expect a real good 2nd week out of it. This film is drawing the older crowd that aren't all rabid about seeing it on opening weekend. We're planning to play Hedge either 6/2 or 6/23 (after Cars).

Posted by Matt Kerekes (Member # 2777) on 05-26-2006, 09:21 PM:

Hope it does well for you, but in retrospect Hedge might have had more lasting power. Our Da Vinci sales dropped today from last week by 60%. We also didn't do nearly the business we thought we would last weekend.

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 05-26-2006, 09:33 PM:

Matt,

Out of curiousity, which theatre in Boca do you work at. My entry into the business was as an usher at the (now LA Fitness) GCC Mission Bay.

Posted by Matt Kerekes (Member # 2777) on 05-27-2006, 12:34 AM:

I work at Mizner Park 8.

Posted by Bruce Hansen (Member # 281) on 05-30-2006, 06:52 PM:

Da Vinci Code has done almost half a BILLION so far (world wide).

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 05-30-2006, 09:37 PM:

It's holding up well here. Most people are liking it, but we've had probably a dozen walkouts over the film's run so far (mostly teenagers who just don't like to have to 'think' during a movie.)

Posted by Barry Floyd (Member # 385) on 06-09-2006, 12:32 PM:

We open Da Vinci tonight, amidst an email box full of "I can't believe you're going to show that movie" emails.

We broke "Over the Hedge" and did extremely well with it. Actually on Memorial Day weekend, we drew the bigest crowds and the highest box and concessions grosses since we opened the theatre.

Tonight starts "Cars", and the weather here is perfect. If predictions are anything like we hope... it should blow everything else away.