Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: Predictions... Gross Winner: Superman or Pirates?

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Posted by Mark J. Marshall (Member # 1409) on 06-19-2006, 08:13 PM:

In honor of Kamakshipalyia whatever-his-name-was, I thought we'd take a little poll.

Superman is way handicapped with not only a Tuesday night opening at 10PM, but that's followed by basically a five day weekend with the fouth of July falling on the following Tuesday. That practically amounts to a ridiculous week long weekend opening. So predicting which will have a bigger opening weekend wouldn't really be fair. So...

Which do you think will win when all is said and done at the box office? IMAX included for Superman, and worldwide grosses, not just domestic.

My prediction is that... I'll save that for later.

Posted by Kurt Zupin (Member # 2751) on 06-19-2006, 08:30 PM:

While Superman is going to do huge numbers. I think Pirates will be a huge hit worldwide. Its going to be a close call but the final numbers will be Pirates 550mil(worldwide and domestic) and Superman will be 500mil (worldwide and domestic)

Thats what I think

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 06-19-2006, 09:44 PM:

Pirates all the way. Superman has way too much baggage.

Posted by Matt Fields (Member # 3211) on 06-19-2006, 10:01 PM:

Domestic...Pirates
World-wide...Superman

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 06-19-2006, 11:01 PM:

I'm saying Pirates. The last one was just too huge for this one not to be huge. Superman is not seen as "that cool" among the young set. Will the grownups come out for it, is the question.

Posted by Ross Oba (Member # 3433) on 06-20-2006, 12:16 AM:

Well, despite all the "Is Superman gay?" rumors, the movie is getting very good reviews. I am going to one of the many who will see this Tuesday night at 10PM. Not sure how making this open on Wednesday instead of a Friday will help. But I for one am actually looking more forward to Pirates than Superman.

Posted by Jack Ondracek (Member # 1466) on 06-20-2006, 02:24 AM:

Pirates, though I'm hopefull that Superman will make a good showing.

The release schedule is totally screwy. They should have worked it out so S'man would have had at least 2 or 3 weeks before Pirates. Maybe "Click" should have traded spots?

I'm seeing a lot of posts from single screeners, on the topic of how to book this one.

Posted by Brad Allen (Member # 470) on 06-20-2006, 02:24 PM:

Pirates will win in the smaller markets and most likely nation wide.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 06-20-2006, 05:13 PM:

According to our booker WB was thinking about offering a nine-day run of Supe from 6/28 thru 7/7 for single-screens that are already planning to open Pirates. We would have jumped on that in a heartbeat but they decided not to do it.

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 06-20-2006, 05:20 PM:

Pirates- Domestic, International, Total, any way you want to cut it. Unless they screwed it up. If it's anywhere near as good as the first one it'll do well over $300 million domestic.

Superman will probably end in the $225-$275 million range. Batman Begins was really good and only did $205 million.

Pirates did $305 million and it wasn't exactly hugely anticipated when it was released. Now that millions of people have seen it (both in Theatres and on DVD) it will open HUGE.

Warner Bros. is afraid of Pirates that's why they keep making the release earlier and earlier, to try and get as much gross as possible before Pirates opens.

Posted by Chad M Calpito (Member # 3736) on 06-20-2006, 06:00 PM:

I would have to say that Pirates will be grossing more than Superman, though I would have to give Superman a chance for a close second place.

Posted by Mike Spaeth (Member # 524) on 06-20-2006, 09:50 PM:

Both will be $200 million movies. Pirates will be a $250 million+ movie. Neither will be a $300 million movie.

Posted by Dennis Benjamin (Member # 1137) on 06-21-2006, 09:22 AM:

Sorry to say: The "Superman" film franchise died with Christopher Reeve.

Pirates will outgross Superman by millions and millions of dollars. Nobody in their right mind would disagree.

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 06-21-2006, 01:06 PM:

quote: Mike Spaeth
Both will be $200 million movies. Pirates will be a $250 million+ movie. Neither will be a $300 million movie.

Why would you say Pirates won't do over $300 millon? The first one did $305 million. This one has more buzz, ticket prices are higher, it's an "all ages" movie and there is nothing coming out the rest of July to cut into it's gross.

Unless they totally screwed it up and made it bad, I'd be shocked if it grossed under $300 million and I wouldn't be surprised for it to surpass $350 million. X-Men 3 was disappointing and it still made $216 million so far (more than the far better X2, which finished up with $214 million). X3 will probably end up in the $230-$240 million range (7.5-12% higher than X2). If Pirates does the same percentage wise over the original, it'll end up in the $327-$342 million range.

Posted by Paer Hoegberg (Member # 3133) on 06-21-2006, 05:13 PM:

I say: Superman (28 July) have no chance. I think Pirates (12 July) make more than the double $$.
Reason 1 - Pirates come before superman.
Reason 2 - Pirates Trailers have run at cinemas 3 month, And (Big) standees. Superman trailers at cinema - starting next week. Ho standees, no posters (yet).

I see different dates in the US - but in Europe I think Pirates are a winner.

Posted by Eric Hooper (Member # 1730) on 06-21-2006, 05:25 PM:

quote: Mike Blakesley
According to our booker WB was thinking about offering a nine-day run of Supe from 6/28 thru 7/7 for single-screens that are already planning to open Pirates. We would have jumped on that in a heartbeat but they decided not to do it.

Awwh, they should have done that. It's going to be very frontloaded, and when Pirates opens on 07/07 it's going to obliterate it.

Pirates will definitely be the winner all around.

Posted by Dennis Benjamin (Member # 1137) on 06-22-2006, 07:09 AM:

quote: Mike Blakesley
According to our booker WB was thinking about offering a nine-day run of Supe from 6/28 thru 7/7 for single-screens that are already planning to open Pirates. We would have jumped on that in a heartbeat but they decided not to do it.

I know a certain Drive-In that got this exact deal.

I am hearing nothing but good things about Superman.. Maybe it will surprise us all?

Posted by Eric Hooper (Member # 1730) on 06-22-2006, 10:22 AM:

I just heard of another single screen who got the 9-day deal on Superman. They're showing it 06/27 to 07/06 and then opening Pirates.

From their email newsletter (name removed to protect the innocent):

quote:
Now for the good news: Starting with a special late show on Tuesday, June 27, we are going to be opening Superman Returns for 9 days only! This looks to be a great movie, and Warner Bros. offered us a special opportunity to play this move for 9 days, even though it is almost unheard of for a studio to release a film for that period of time! Warner Bros. wants Superman to play in XX, and we jumped at the chance to bring it to you.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 06-22-2006, 11:20 PM:

Well the squeaky wheel gets the grease. I informed our booker that other places were getting the 9-day deal and lo and behold, they found us a print. (Apparently some other theatre somewhere backed out of the deal, or so I'm told.) So now I just hope it's a good movie! [thumbsup]

Posted by Mark J. Marshall (Member # 1409) on 06-23-2006, 11:00 AM:

I never met anyone who saw the first Pirates movie and didn't like it. Dead Man's Chest is written, produced, and directed by the same group of people that did the Black Pearl. All the stars seem to be back too somehow, even Barbosa. "Bootstrap Bill Turner" is also in the credits, which should be interesting and fun. But I don't see any way that this movie can fail. Even if its bad, everyone will still come see it anyway.

As for Superman, everything I've seen about it looks like it's going to take off - so to speak. The reviews are good to excellent. The 3D IMAX thing will be really cool, even if it is for only 20 minutes. And who can't get excited when they hear the Superman theme playing behind Marlon Brando's voice? I think this will have a huge opening, and if it's as good as everyone says it is, it will continue to be big even while Pirates is busy.

So, let's all pray for rain and get ready for a really busy couple of weeks. I think it'll be close, and they will both do really well, but Pirates will end up slightly ahead of Superman. That's my prediction, and I'm sticking to it.

Posted by Mike Heenan (Member # 392) on 06-23-2006, 11:47 AM:

I guess as long as they dont repeat the "jokes" from the first it should be good... I've already seen they repeat the slapping thing so hopefully that's it.

Posted by Andy Bergstrom (Member # 360) on 06-26-2006, 09:42 AM:

My vote goes for Pirates. Johnny Depp has a good track record.

Posted by David Stambaugh (Member # 1102) on 06-27-2006, 07:06 PM:

Superman is the summer wildcard. It could be huge, or it could bomb (relatively speaking, like King Kong). As long as Pirates doesn't suck, it's practically a sure thing.

Posted by Brian Hogan (Member # 940) on 06-28-2006, 10:53 PM:

PIRATES all the way. superman has nothin on super depp!

Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 06-29-2006, 12:03 AM:

It could be that I just really enjoyed Superman last night, but after seeing it, I have no desire at all to see Pirates. NONE!!! I doubt that will be the sentiment, but there is an off chance that people get their fill early on for Superman, and then get iffy on pirates...

but then again... it is just me... i have been wrong before.. once.. but it happens..

Ciao

Posted by Tom Petrov (Member # 1534) on 06-29-2006, 02:28 AM:

Without a doubt Pirates.

I saw Superman. was not very good.

Posted by Donna Siegwart (Member # 3232) on 06-29-2006, 02:45 AM:

We did a vote in my theatre and out of all the employees (about 40 or 50) only one or two people said superman would do better, and so far, I think PIRATES will do better, we havent even sold out a show yet for Superman. Its going no where fast in my theatre.

Pirates all the way [Wink]

Posted by Dustin Mitchell (Member # 372) on 06-29-2006, 03:35 AM:

I don't know about other theatres but Superman is BOMBING for us. We have three prints at our twelve screen (average for a big release in this market) and its showing in a 207, a 200, and a 140 house. If we had only one print in the largest house it would not have sold out all day, and most of the day we could have gotten by with one print in the 140 house.

Shame really, guess we'll have to wait for Pirates.

Posted by Jared Thornton (Member # 3580) on 06-29-2006, 04:54 AM:

After seeing both films my money is on Pirates. Superman is the better film but the masses will flock to see Pirates.

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 06-29-2006, 07:18 AM:

quote: Dave Williams
but there is an off chance that people get their fill early on for Superman, and then get iffy on pirates...

I don't think there's even a remote chance of this happening. These are two completely different movies. Superman is a superhero movie, Pirates is an action/adventure/comedy. If X-men were coming out next week then Superman would hurt the gross but not Pirates.

If Pirates is good, it will be far and away the highest gross of the summer and probably has a chance to get to $400 million because there aren't really any "event" movies coming out the rest of the summer.

Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 06-29-2006, 12:35 PM:

This is why I said that I doubt that this will be the case on the "off chance", because really it isn't a gut impression, just how I only personally felt. I too think that people will flock to pirates, only because people are drones and do what they are told.

Superman could have cut half an hour from the run time and sped the thing up, might have made a difference in "some" of the critical reviews, but there are plenty who have an axe to grind on the film so that doesn't help it.

I am doubtful that I will enjoy pirates too much. Guess I am too much a superhero geek.

Ciao

Posted by Brad Allen (Member # 470) on 06-29-2006, 01:45 PM:

Superman bombed for us as well here in mid america.

Posted by Dennis Benjamin (Member # 1137) on 06-29-2006, 05:30 PM:

Opening day of 'Superman' - 'Click' had more of an attendance. 'Superman' did outgross all my other films - but more people were sitting in 'Click'. I think the running time of the film has more of an affect. I can run shows all day of my other movies, but both 'Superman' and 'Pirates' are long as hell. I still think 'Pirates' is going to win.....

Posted by John T. Hendrickson, Jr (Member # 849) on 06-29-2006, 11:15 PM:

Opening day for us was a dissapointment as well, and we are sitting on five prints. [Frown]

It's not doing nearly the business that was expected.

Heard that Disney is limiting the number of prints for Pirates, and everyone in our area getting fewer than first promised. I wonder- what's up with that? [Confused]

Seems the distribs pitch all the hype on their product and then everyone runs for the exits after the first week.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 06-30-2006, 01:19 PM:

Our first 2 nights of Superman were soft, as well. But we have had virtually zero kids, so I'm thinking they are waiting for the weekend.

We've had a number of people in the door who were amazed that we were "already" showing Superman, so I think a lot of people just think it opens on Friday. (Plus, we never got the updated one-sheets so ours say "6-30-06" on them.)

Posted by Matt Fields (Member # 3211) on 07-01-2006, 01:06 AM:

Superman only beat Cars by 20 bucks tonight at my place...and Cars is in its fourth weekend.

Superman is not super at the box office around here. Rentrak shows the same story at other theatres in my area. - Matt

Posted by Donna Siegwart (Member # 3232) on 07-01-2006, 01:46 AM:

So the sad thing with Superman tonight at my theatre was 'Devil Wears Prada' sold out a show and superman has YET to do that in our theatre, and our Prada show has a defect and we even warned guests about it before they bought tickets so they could deside to buy tickets for that show or change their choice. Well looks like super man isnt going to do well this weekend. We are all hyped at my theatre about pirates. We even did a cute little job on our concession stand (we have a pirate flag and all) it kinda looks like a poorly made ship, but our employees had fun making it. hehe. And guests think its cute, and all they all want to come in for our first weekend (all the employees are dressing up)

oh and is anyone else having a 'real pirate' acting thing come in to their theatre? oddly enough some guy came in and booked some pirate show in our theatre, apparently he and some other pirate dressed people are going to act out something, sounds odd, i have to make sure to work that day.

Posted by Jason Black (Member # 684) on 07-04-2006, 04:01 PM:

I haven't followed the theatre business for a while now... Hell, I barely even know what's playing.. but, without a doubt.. Pirates will hand Superman a healthy dose of Kryptonite.. thereby killing it at the box office.. [Smile]

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 07-05-2006, 03:56 PM:

I think this debate is pretty much over. Pirates might gross in the first 10 days what Superman does for its entire run.

Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 07-05-2006, 11:13 PM:

I have a new theory on this movie. It is going to do gangbuster business, but the movie will suck, much like Matrix Reloaded did unbelievable business, and sucked. There was so much buzz for the Matrix sequels that no one cared about how bad it was.

That was until the third one came along, and bombed out, compared to the second one anyway.

If this one does in fact totally suck, the third one due next year will eat it up to whatever film comes out then.

In the long run, the next superman film will more than likely take off, with Mr. Singer taking his errors on the first one into account.

That's my take. We shall see.

Ciao

Posted by Dustin Mitchell (Member # 372) on 07-06-2006, 02:35 AM:

Just watched Pirates. It doesn't suck, it will be huge.

Posted by Chad Souder (Member # 343) on 07-07-2006, 09:06 PM:

quote: Dave Williams
I have a new theory on this movie. It is going to do gangbuster business, but the movie will suck, much like Matrix Reloaded did unbelievable business, and sucked.

That's not a theory, it's a prediction. A theory tries to explain facts we already know, such as saying that Matrix 3 bombed because #2 sucked.

Anyhow, like many other theatres, we're enjoying our first sell-outs of the summer. Does anyone think that big business on one movie can parlay into better business for movies that come after it? Like people see the trailers while they are in the house and they enjoy their experience, so they come again for something they might not otherwise see? Or do you think each movie's business is independent of any other's?

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 07-07-2006, 10:17 PM:

quote: Chad Souder
Does anyone think that big business on one movie can parlay into better business for movies that come after it?

Absolutely. Especially if the big-business movie is enjoyable. I think we'll get a much bigger "bump" from Cars and Pirates than we did from Da Vinci Code because a lot of people left DVC with a "the book was much better" attitude. Whereas most people are coming out of Cars and Pirates with big old smiles on their faces.

Posted by Phil Blake (Member # 2012) on 07-07-2006, 10:58 PM:

Quote Mike Blakesley

quote: Mike Blakesley
Superman is not seen as "that cool"

very correct Mike, after watching both I think Superman actually mves better than Pirates, Superman is not working at my place as most of the super hero films dont.

yes pirates will be the leader because it is infact "Cool" Johnny Depp Orlando and Kiera are cool . I have seen many great films flop that should not have just for that reason, and many films like Date Move take thousands because regardless of the quality , they are infact "COOL".

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 07-08-2006, 12:17 PM:

Friday estimate over $55 million. Biggest single day ever by $5 million over "Revenge of the Sith." If it holds up today and Sunday it will blow away the "Spider Man 2" 3-day record as well.

"Sith" ended up doing $380 million and "SM2" ended up with $373 million. If the public likes it, "Pirates" has a shot at $400 million.

Posted by Jack Ondracek (Member # 1466) on 07-08-2006, 01:17 PM:

As an owner of a successful drive-in, I can tell you that we saw things out here last night that I haven't seen in the 20 years we've had the place.

Apparently, somewhere in the gaming world (of which my youngest daughter participates), there's some kind of tension between pirates and NINJAS. Though there isn't a single reference to a ninja in the movie, I had GROUPS of them out here last night... very strange, but I guess... why not? We certainly had our share of pirate characters here. If I could have put them in one group, we could have done the "Pirates" version of "Rocky Horror"!

As for last night's business... well.... [thumbsup]

Posted by Shane Cooper (Member # 2510) on 07-08-2006, 04:25 PM:

Without discussing specifics, how is Pirates playing today compared to yesterday? We are up but I have talked to others who seem to be down.

Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 07-08-2006, 05:38 PM:

quote: Dustin Mitchell
Just watched Pirates. It doesn't suck, it will be huge.

Despite if it sucks or not, it will do serious business, as I feared it would. Read my previous statement on that. According to Rottentomatoes, you have a 48% chance of thinking this movie will suck, but it won't stop the seats from getting filled. People love Johnny Depp. It is the cool thing to do. People are rats that just follow the cheese.

quote: Dave Williams
It is going to do gangbuster business, but the movie will suck

quote: Chad Souder
That's not a theory, it's a prediction. A theory tries to explain facts we already know, such as saying that Matrix 3 bombed because #2 sucked.

Good for you! [evil]

What would we all have done without someone pointing this out. [Eek!]

Posted by Michael Gonzalez (Member # 593) on 07-08-2006, 08:13 PM:

Well I think that it is safe to say that the hands down winner is going to be Pirates. We did not have Superman as it went to our competition but our employees are frendly with their employees and they were not all that busy even during the holiday weekend. By contrast we have sold out most of our shows and at times have had lines from our lobby to the entrance of the mall. I wonder what kind of drop off there is going to be next week?

Posted by Mark J. Marshall (Member # 1409) on 07-09-2006, 12:33 PM:

Wow, $55 million in one day? And now they say it will probably top Spider-Man's three day gross record? Wow, I expected it to be big, but not THAT big!

It's funny. In the beginning, I said this:

quote: Mark J. Marshall
Superman is way handicapped with not only a Tuesday night opening at 10PM, but that's followed by basically a five day weekend with the fouth of July falling on the following Tuesday. That practically amounts to a ridiculous week long weekend opening. So predicting which will have a bigger opening weekend wouldn't really be fair.

So now, after its ridiculous week long weekend opening, Superman had a total of $108 million under its belt. And it looks like with a regular three day opening weekend, Pirates will still beat it.

Holy shit, I'm impressed.

Posted by Richard Fowler (Member # 893) on 07-09-2006, 02:09 PM:

Three day total for Pirates = $134,000,000 some loot har har [beer]

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 07-09-2006, 06:57 PM:

Pirates - $132 million in three days
Superman Returns - $141.7 million in 10 days.
(These are estimates...actuals coming)

Case well and truly closed. Superman may be the better film, but like I said...it has way too much baggage.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 07-09-2006, 10:40 PM:

Well by the end of the day Friday Pirates had outgrossed our entire first WEEK of Superman, and by Saturday had outgrossed Supe's entire 9-day run.

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 07-10-2006, 10:40 PM:

According to the weekend actuals on Boxofficemojo.com, Pirates ended up with $135.6 million. This is $3 million higher than the estimated gross.

It'll be interesting to see the weekday grosses. Could it get to $200 million before next weekend?

If this thing has legs, the sky is the limit. It's certainly not going to play strong for 6 months like Titanic. But if it runs strong for 6 weeks, it could get over $500 million.

Posted by Dustin Mitchell (Member # 372) on 07-10-2006, 11:00 PM:

I didn't work today but talking to people who did there was very little slowdown from the weekend, shows were still selling out all day.