Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: Survey: Which movie will be the box office winner this summer?

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Posted by Mark J. Marshall (Member # 1409) on 05-03-2007, 10:39 AM:

There are a lot of films coming out this summer that have the potential to do huge box office numbers. When all is said and done, and everything has been released, and all of the theatrical release numbers are in, which do you think will be on top and why?

Posted by Jack Ondracek (Member # 1466) on 05-03-2007, 10:59 AM:

Pirates 3. Nothing else will come close.

Shrek might be fun, though.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 05-03-2007, 11:19 AM:

It's a tough call between the big 3 (Spidey, Pirates, Potter)

But I think the top 5 in order will be:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
3. Spider-Man 3
4. Shrek 3
5. Ratatouille

The only one I really feel sure about is Pirates. The others...well, the order could shake up just about any way, I suppose.

I expect Bourne Ultimatum to be good. Evan Almighty - I was totally against that one from the first but the latest trailer looks pretty good, plus Steve Carrell is on a streak, so it might be a surprise. Surf's Up will be a contender, unless the media beats the "another penguin movie?" theme into the ground and kills it.

Simpsons is a real wild card. I feel like it could be huge, but just not sure. I'm not hearing the buzz on it, but it's early.

There are a lot of decent movies which would be topliners in any other year, but this year they're second-teir. Fantastic Four, Chuck and Larry, Transformers, Daddy Day Camp, Rush Hour 3, Live Free or Die Hard.

Posted by Stephen LaPadula (Member # 3050) on 05-03-2007, 03:20 PM:

Harry Potter is a suckers bet given the other big films. Take a look at Box Office Mojo. The Potter film that had a summer debut was the lowest grossing in the franchise. You'd think someone at WB would want to hold off until November where they have proven most successful. I'm skeptical about it being in the top 5.

Also, Pirates seems to be everyones favorite, but Spidy has 2 weeks with 0 direct competition, and Pirates is 6 days after Shrek (for those running it at 8pm on Thurs.) There will certainly be some people who will have to choose between the two. Then it's all down hill in terms of competition.

Michael Bay only has one flop, though I'm not sure how mush mass appeal Transformers will have (think about Pearl Harbor, The Rock , Armageddon). And not to leave out Rush Hour. It's been 5 years since the last one but that grossed $226 million.

Will anything that grosses less than $200 million be considered a failure?

Posted by Matt Whitney (Member # 2909) on 05-03-2007, 04:26 PM:

I'm gonna go against the trend and pick Spider-Man 3 as being in the number one spot. As for the rest...
2. Pirates
3. Shrek
4. Harry Potter
5. Ratatouille (You can't count out Pixar, given their track record)

Posted by Luci Reeve (Member # 3651) on 05-03-2007, 04:42 PM:

PIRATES by as much as $50M. Nothing else will even come close.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 05-03-2007, 06:04 PM:

I think Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End will be the summer's biggest money winner.

Ratatouille is the movie I want to see most out of this year's crop of "summer films." Not sure how much money the movie will make. But then I don't give a damn if its a major blockbuster either. I'm still going to go see it even if I'm the only one who intends to see it. Pixar and Disney are still going to make money from it though. Good movies can often be measured by something besides box office gross. And some "blockbusters" in recent years have been mediocre or even bad, such as the first Spiderman installment. I just hope the public doesn't stay away from the movie based on the odd title.

Shrek 3? Not sure about that one. Wasn't too impressed with Shrek 2.

Spiderman 3 will make a good amount of money. However, the film's running time and growing number of bad to mediocre reviews will ruin its staying power. If it drags as much as some suggest then the word of mouth won't be good. It'll probably open with a record-breaking weekend due to all the insane front loading of movie theater screens. Our Carmike 8 has it booked on 3 full screens, with two more shows doubled with another movie on a 4th screen. At 12:01am tonight they'll play the movie in as many houses they can fill, even if all 8 screens get filled. Basically, anyone who wants to see this movie on opening weekend won't have any problem doing so. I expect a big drop in attendance on its 2nd weekend.

The Fantastic 4: Rise of the Silver Surfer is going to do better than the first Fantastic 4 movie. But it probably won't beat the numbers of Spiderman 3. Thank God they didn't try to use a sequel number on this movie. Some folks would have been scratching their heads seeing "Fantastic 4 2" on the marquee. Actually, that may be how the movie is listed on some theater signs.
[Roll Eyes]

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix will probably do very well. It won't be Pirates in box office haul. But considering its biggest competition will be Michael Bay's Transformers pic, the new Harry Potter movie would actually have to be pretty bad to keep audiences from visiting the theater in droves.

Rush Hour 3 looks like it will be crap.

Live Free Or Die Hard sounds like the title for a movie about hillbilly militant separatists who abuse Viagara. 12 years have passed since the last Die Hard sequel was released. This new one doesn't look very exciting. Can't they do better than just getting the "I'm a Mac" guy as a sidekick? What the hell is the movie even about? The trailer sucks.

I know we complain every summer about sequel-itis. But it seems like there really is a serious glut of sequels this year, much more than the usual amount. How many non-sequels are going to do well?

Posted by Mike Heenan (Member # 392) on 05-03-2007, 06:28 PM:

Well there was what, 17 years between the last Rocky and Rocky Balboa, and that one turned out pretty good box office (considering it's budget). However, I'm currently reading that Fox ordered major cutting down to PG13 so this may affect it's likability.

Posted by John Joseph Fink (Member # 3619) on 05-03-2007, 07:04 PM:

PG-13 Die Hard? Why? The previous R-rated Die Hard flicks were obviously hits - Fox did this with Speed 2: Cruise Controll...and no one cared (then again that movie was cheezy).

I think Simpsons will be huge, of the summer movies (and keep in mind I work a 8-5 office gig) it's the only one I'd consider going to a Thursday midnight show of.

Posted by Dennis Benjamin (Member # 1137) on 05-03-2007, 07:26 PM:

'Pirates 3'...

'Transformers' will surprise us gross wise. 'Potter', 'Shrek', and 'Spiderman' will all do well - but P3 will be the one. I secretly hope that Mr. Ratner's "Rush Hour 3" will give us a good boost in August and break some of the previous August records.

Of course it could turn out to be a 'Super Bad' summer.........

Posted by James Westbrook (Member # 3690) on 05-03-2007, 09:22 PM:

"Hostel 2".
Yes, I'm Joking.
Pirates. I wish it was a half-hour shorter to get more shows on screen.

Posted by Chad M Calpito (Member # 3736) on 05-03-2007, 10:45 PM:

My guess would be these two:

1) Harry Potter & The Order of The Phoenix
2) Pirates 3

I would say Maybe to Spider-Man 3.

Posted by Matt Fields (Member # 3211) on 05-04-2007, 08:40 AM:

My prediction:

1. Pirates
2. Spider-Man 3
3. Shrek the Third
4. Potter
5. Transformers

Others that will do well: Fantastic Four, Evan Almighty, Ratatouille, Chuck and Larry.

Posted by Frank Dubrois (Member # 3042) on 05-05-2007, 03:32 PM:

1. Pirates
2. Shrek 3
3. Transformers
4. Spiderman 3
5. Fantastic 4 or Simpsons

Once word gets out about the crappy soap opera that is Spiderman 3, it will die down fast. Too much other good stuff to go check out. Shrek will benefit from Theaters in malls where parents can drop off kids and go shopping. Transformers will be a surprise I think...will do well. Pirates...well....what can I say, it just feels right.

Posted by Jim Bedford (Member # 4) on 05-07-2007, 02:31 AM:

Watch out Spidey! Pirates has you in its sights.

Posted by Caleb Johnstone-Cowan (Member # 3710) on 05-07-2007, 03:57 PM:

I think The Simpsons Movie will have the biggest opening week, everyone under 40 will want to see that. Will die down afterwards.

I think in the UK it will be POTC3, Harry Potter and Shrek 3 taking up the top spots. Don't get why Harry Potter isn't being released in November the films are a bit 'dark' for a summer release.

Posted by Andy Muirhead (Member # 712) on 05-07-2007, 06:37 PM:

Yup, Pirates and Potter will be close.. though I'll say 1. Potter and 2. Pirates. For the hell of it.

Yeah Caleb, Potter in November just seems RIGHT. It's a winter movie for sure.