Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: WALL-E vs. HANCOCK

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Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 06-04-2008, 10:47 PM:

In this corner, the newest movie from Pixar, the studio that hasn't had a flop yet but is coming off their lowest grosser (Ratatouille).

And in THIS corner, the latest movie from Will Smith, who has also never really had a flop and has dominated multiple 4th of July weekends.

Which one looks like the better grosser and why? We are going with WALL-E on the break but hope to get Hancock in before July is over.

Posted by Kurt Zupin (Member # 2751) on 06-04-2008, 10:54 PM:

Wall-E will do good with the families, Pixar always does good with them. Right now the big problem with Hancock is that it can't get past an R rating. Thats a big blow if it can't get down to a PG-13. Right now they are reshooting a lot of scenes to try and get it down. If Hancock gets down to a PG-13 rating I think it will win out between the two, but still not be in the top three for the summer. Still look for Wall-E to be in the 200-225 mil range

Posted by Chris Slycord (Member # 4239) on 06-04-2008, 11:03 PM:

Wall-E will win

PIXAR movies appeal to people of all ages. Little ones, adults, teens. Everyone. And the main character and story (at least what I saw in the trailers) are immensely cute and funny.

And the trailers I've ran for Hancock seem pretty dumb even though the movie looks like something I'd enjoy.

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 06-04-2008, 11:09 PM:

If Wall-E is good it will win between the two. Hancock will surely do very well also. Wall-E can probably do Finding Nemo type business if it is a good story and the kids (and adults too) fall in love with the character.

The interesting thing to see on Wall-E is how the dialog free first reel works out. All there is for the first 20 minutes is robot noises (or so I have been told).

Posted by Justin Hamaker (Member # 2165) on 06-04-2008, 11:14 PM:

quote: Kurt Zupin
Right now the big problem with Hancock is that it can't get past an R rating.

Actually, the official site for Hancock has displayed a PG-13 for over a week now. Although it's still listed as TBD on Sony's exhibitor relations site and CARA's website doesn't list a rating.

I think Hancock will win the Fourth of July weekend for two reasons. First is that Will Smith is a huge box office draw and will fill lots of seats. Whether Hancock has legs will depend on if it's any good. I would expect the 5 day gross (Wed-Sun) to be better than $150 million.

Secondly, it will be the second weekend for Wall-E and unless it's exceptionally good, it's hard to see it not having a drop the second weekend.

quote: Mike Blakesley
In this corner, the newest movie from Pixar, the studio that hasn't had a flop yet but is coming off their lowest grosser (Ratatouille).

Ratatouille is actually the third lowest grossing Pixar movie ahead of Toy Story and A Bugs Life - although both would certainly be higher if adjusted for inflation. Pixar films on Box Office Mojo

Posted by Ross Oba (Member # 3433) on 06-04-2008, 11:23 PM:

This is a no-brainer. Wall-E will beat Hancock hands down. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hancock will flop. The only reason is because it doesn't look very good. The trailers make it look silly when supposedly it's a dark movie.

Posted by Geoff Jones (Member # 3668) on 06-04-2008, 11:46 PM:

Wall-E is going to be so good that everyone else is going to give up and stop making movies.

Posted by Kurt Zupin (Member # 2751) on 06-05-2008, 12:54 AM:

quote: Justin Hamaker
Actually, the official site for Hancock has displayed a PG-13 for over a week now. Although it's still listed as TBD on Sony's exhibitor relations site and CARA's website doesn't list a rating.

According to "some one I know", it is still not rated and it's last attempt with the MPAA was an R rating. This was as of last Thursday.

[ 06-05-2008, 06:14 AM: Message edited by: Kurt Zupin ]

Posted by Ben Goodman (Member # 4770) on 06-05-2008, 01:14 AM:

I think most people underestimate Will Smith, especially Will Smith in July. He is the #1 box office pull in the world right now. Don't get me wrong, I think Wall-E will do well to the tune of $140 mil on the opening weekend-- and Wall-E will certainly do better in the concession stand-- but Hancock overall will blow the doors off the theatre.

I think the real competition is between Hancock and The Dark Knight. If both of them are PG13, it's going to be neck and neck.

Posted by Darryl Spicer (Member # 711) on 06-05-2008, 01:44 AM:

Hancock is going to be huge. The newest trailer will be enclosed with Zohan and it really looks good now. The film companies are also going to allow shows as early as 7:00 pm Tuesday night.

Posted by Shane Cooper (Member # 2510) on 06-05-2008, 02:40 AM:

quote: Ross Oba
This is a no-brainer. Wall-E will beat Hancock hands down. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hancock will flop. The only reason is because it doesn't look very good. The trailers make it look silly when supposedly it's a dark movie.

While I agree that Wall-E will win overall, ($230 mil range), I think it is harsh to say that it will flop. I often feel like Will Smith can take a [bs]

in a box for 90 minutes and it will make 100 million. The guy is money.

That being said, the popular thought is that Will Smith is Mr. July. In reality he has only had two movies released in July that have grossed higher than 200 mil, (Independence Day in '96 with $306,169,260 and Men In Black in '97 with $250,690,539).

While those two grosses are impressive, since '97 he has released 4 movies in July that have averaged just $146,908,488, (I, Robot in '04, Bad Boys II in '03, Men In Black II in '02 and Wild, Wild West in '99).

I think that Hancock will need to be closer to the $256,393,010 that I Am Legend grossed last fall to beat Pixar.

All grosses from Box Office Mojo's Will Smith page.

Posted by Justin Hamaker (Member # 2165) on 06-05-2008, 03:36 AM:

Kurt
I'm really curious now about the rating on Hancock. I read an article a few weeks ago that said they had finally got it down to a PG-13. The official site lists PG-13 as does Yahoo Movies, but every other movie site I've check still lists not rated.

The reason why I'm curious about this is Sony is one of the studios that has a habit of being squirrelly when it comes to dealing properly with the ratings. Specifically, not sending out rated materials and not having the rating out until the last minute.

Posted by Kurt Zupin (Member # 2751) on 06-05-2008, 06:18 AM:

Justin,

My assumption is with putting the PG-13 tag on everything is that is what they are banking on. I am also interested in the rating, because if it doesn't get the PG-13 rating then watch out for the bomb it will be. The only problem is how much will they have to cut/edit to get it down to PG-13, that also could kill the boxoffice take. I just searched the MPAA website and they havn't posted a rating yet.

While I never said Wall-E wouldn't be big, I just really can't see it doing Finding Nemo numbers.

Posted by Mark Gulbrandsen (Member # 72) on 06-05-2008, 08:01 AM:

I think Wall-E will somke the other films released at the same time. Pixar ALWAYS wins!

Mark

Posted by Mike Olpin (Member # 1115) on 06-05-2008, 10:41 AM:

WALL•E will have legs, and do good business throughout its run. I think Hancock will blow its load opening weekend.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 06-05-2008, 11:14 AM:

I think Wall•E will do bigger numbers than Hancock for reasons other than MPAA ratings and demographic reach. From what I can gather from trailers and other pre-release stuff Wall•E just looks like it will be a better movie. I have a sort of ho hum reaction with Hancock.

I'll also provide a voice of dissent regarding Hancock needing a PG-13 rating. Granted, the main character of the story is a superhero. But this doesn't come off as a movie for kids at all. It seems more geared for adults. You have a down and out superhero who indulges in a lot of vice and needs to get his shit together. In R-rated territory you could have a lot more fun with that. With the PG-13, the impact is watered down. Worse yet, the cosmetic editing done to earn that PG-13 does little to keep older children from figuring out the meaning of a movie's suggestive content. In the end, a lot of PG-13 movies fail both adults and children who watch the show.

Perhaps Sony Pictures has forgotten that R-rated movies can do well in summer. True Lies and Terminator 2 are two R-rated big summer hits that immediately come to mind. 20th Century Fox is pumping up the R-rated status of The Happening, M. Night Shyamalan's first movie to receive such a rating.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 06-05-2008, 01:14 PM:

I hadn't heard that Hancock might be an R. That would be REALLY stupid. If it's R, then Wall-E will blow it away.

Posted by David Stambaugh (Member # 1102) on 06-05-2008, 01:27 PM:

quote:
20th Century Fox is pumping up the R-rated status of The Happening, M. Night Shyamalan's first movie to receive such a rating.

I find the TV ads for The Happening to be quite amusing in how they go out of their way to point out This is Shamalamadingdong's FIRST R-Rated movie! OMG, alert the media and wake the kids! Nurses will be on duty at all shows!

I think Hancock will do very well but if I could show only one of them I'd prolly go with Wall-E.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 06-05-2008, 01:59 PM:

It does seem like 20th Century Fox is indeed going a little overboard with the R-rated marketing of The Happening. They even colored the "R" in the MPAA logo red in the TV commercials. I do think it's a nice change to have a horror genre movie that is R-rated after so many PG-13 thrillers.

quote: Mike Blakesley
I hadn't heard that Hancock might be an R. That would be REALLY stupid. If it's R, then Wall-E will blow it away.

I, too, was surprised to hear Hancock could get a R-rating. But I don't think it would necessarily be the end of the world for that movie. Still, based on what I saw in the trailer, I wouldn't be too thrilled about taking adolescent kids to see that movie even if it was whittled down to a PG-13.

Hopefully the movie won't tank at the box office like My Super Ex Girlfriend. I'm not getting that "this is going to be pretty cool" vibe from Hancock either.

Posted by Justin Hamaker (Member # 2165) on 06-05-2008, 02:11 PM:

quote: Bobby Henderson
I'm not getting that "this is going to be pretty cool" vibe from Hancock either.

I'm getting the sense that lots of people are excited about Hancock. We've had the trailer running on Indiana Jones since the opening day and I was in the auditorium when the trailer played most of the opening weekend. The general audience reaction seemed to be very positive. Lots of laughing and an excited buzz when the trailer finished. No telling if that translates to box office success, but I think it's a positive sign.

We've also had a bus shelter/over sized one-sheet posted outside our main auditorium for months and several times a day I seeing people point it out with remarks like "I can't wait for that one".

If Hancock is released with an R rating, it might increase the want to see among teens and college kids, but is likely going to relegate it to wait for video status for family crowds. While I wouldn't consider a PG-13 version to be family friendly, most of know the reality. As long as it has the PG-13, most parents could care less what's actually in the movie.

Posted by Galen Murphy-Fahlgren (Member # 4535) on 06-05-2008, 02:55 PM:

quote: Geoff Jones
Wall-E is going to be so good that everyone else is going to give up and stop making movies.

For sure. If trailers give ANY indication, Wall E promises to be amazing. The trailer is so fantastic, I can't tear my eyes away when it is playing, a substantial inconvenience since I have it on three or four prints.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 06-05-2008, 05:50 PM:

The trailer for Hancock shipped with "Narnia," fercryinoutloud. That tells you right there they are aiming for a PG-13 rating.

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 06-05-2008, 07:51 PM:

Will Smith can do no wrong box-office wise. Don't expect this to be any different, regardless of its rating.

Wall-E will do well also but...

quote: Ben Goodman
I think Wall-E will do well to the tune of $140 mil on the opening weekend

That's a mightily optimistic prediction.

Posted by John Hawkinson (Member # 1135) on 06-05-2008, 09:21 PM:

Umm, guys. Hancock is not an ordinary movie. It's a quite a risky bet for SPE. WALL-E is a sure thing.

Hancock's trailer downplays some of the things that make it risky, but I expect it'll have a noticable second-weekend drop because of it (it might also be a runaway hit with legs...).

Michael Cieply's May 4 New York Times article is very instructive on these points. Some quotes:

quote:

...
So “Hancock,” whether it succeeds or fails, will most likely be remembered for having forced Hollywood to reach a bit farther than it likes to go. That has happened in the past with unconventional hits like “Star Wars,” “Titanic” and “The Sixth Sense,” and with dozens of flops like “Last Action Hero” and “Heaven’s Gate.”
...
“We had statutory rape up until three weeks ago,” Mr. Berg said, describing just one of the elements that has turned “Hancock” into an exercise in brinkmanship.
...
Keeping it that way became what Mr. Berg called “an epic game of chicken.” The filmmakers, for instance, long ago conceded that their hero should not get drunk with a 12-year-old. But their concession was a bargaining chip, aimed at keeping a similar situation with a 17-year-old in the final version, which was still weeks from being locked as Mr. Berg spoke in April. Another touchy area, Mr. Berg said, involved flying, never mind driving, under the influence.

Asked about the process, Amy Pascal, Sony’s co-chairwoman, took a chipper view. “Will Smith playing a superhero in a movie that’s funny and has tons of action, that’s not so hard,” she said in a telephone interview.

Pressed a bit, however, Ms. Pascal acknowledged that “Hancock” does break some ground. “It’s scary in that it goes farther than we’ve gone before,” she said.
...

--jhawk

Posted by Galen Murphy-Fahlgren (Member # 4535) on 06-06-2008, 02:07 AM:

I'm not even worried about Hancock, since I won't be getting it. Hopefully I'll get three prints of Wall-E though, and help bust out a $150m opening weekend! A few midnight shows would be nice...

Posted by Monte L Fullmer (Member # 2797) on 06-06-2008, 03:25 AM:

WALL*E will be one of those original love stories since it involves the main character (being the classis low life character and another robot (and has to be of the different gender) to make this magic work and tell a great love story.

(Could this be another "E.T." or a "Titanic" situation here??)

Could be a great fam/date flik here.

As for "Hancock", Will Smith has another 'sleeper hit' on his record and will definitely capture the teen audience..and the big bucks at the boxoffice.

Be a tough race to the winning line for both fliks...

-Monte

Posted by Ross Oba (Member # 3433) on 06-06-2008, 04:50 AM:

Hancock will do decent-to-well opening weekend but it will have to face Hellboy 2 in its second weekend and the almighty Dark Knight in its third, so basically it will need to have a huge opening weekend to even guarantee $200 million.

As for Wall-E, I'm actually disappointed because I watched the final trailer because it shows a lot of it. All the teasers before it were great. I really wasn't sure what to expect. Everytime I see the trailer, I feel like it would have been twice as cool if I had gone it not knowing what to expect. Then again, I will have to see it before I make judgment.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 06-06-2008, 09:40 AM:

quote: Ross Oba
it will have to face Hellboy 2 in its second weekend

I don't think that'll be a contest at all. "Hellboy 2" should have been one of those cheapo straight to video deals.

We haven't ever had a newer trailer for Wall-E; the one with Narnia was the newest one we've had, so most of the story will be "fresh" here. [thumbsup]

Posted by Chris Slycord (Member # 4239) on 06-06-2008, 08:28 PM:

quote: Mike Blakesley
I don't think that'll be a contest at all. "Hellboy 2" should have been one of those cheapo straight to video deals.

I think you're completely off on that. I'm definitely looking forward to Hellboy 2 and for an unusual comic book character I think it'll still do well. Plus, they're pushing hard on the fact that the director did Pan's Labyrinth which did well.

And I stand corrected from earlier. The new trailer of Hancock looks quite a lot better than the earlier ones.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 06-06-2008, 08:35 PM:

OK, but I'll still bet Hancock's week 2 will beat Hellboy2's week 1. But only if Hancock is PG-13.

Posted by Brad Allen (Member # 470) on 06-06-2008, 10:08 PM:

Hell Boy 2 won't mean squat in small towns just as Hell Boy didn't.

Posted by Justin Hamaker (Member # 2165) on 06-06-2008, 10:21 PM:

quote: Ross Oba
Hancock will do decent-to-well opening weekend but it will have to face Hellboy 2 in its second weekend and the almighty Dark Knight in its third, so basically it will need to have a huge opening weekend to even guarantee $200 million.

Competition doesn't mean squat. There is no predefined size to the box office pie and if people want to come out for more than one movie, they will come out for more than one movie. Take a look at these weekend charts as evidence.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2004&wknd=22a&p=.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2005&wknd=21a&p=.htm

And I know there are other examples that are not a Memorial Day weekend. But the point is that if demand exists for multiple movies, more than one movie can have strong business one any given weekend.

Posted by Darryl Spicer (Member # 711) on 06-07-2008, 01:08 AM:

OK, we got the official word today from our booking department that Hancock is PG-13 and will run 92 mins.

Mike go with Wall-E. We had a trade screening the other day and everyone who watched it loved it. It's 97 mins plus a 5 min. short.

Posted by Justin Hamaker (Member # 2165) on 06-07-2008, 02:08 AM:

Darryl, I'm loving those run times for Wall-E and Hancock. But that does mean we are going to be running our asses off almost non-stop that weekend.

Posted by Ben Goodman (Member # 4770) on 06-12-2008, 02:53 AM:

Upon further review of my previous reports, $140 mil is a little too optimistic... Dark Knight might get it, but Wall-E will probably get around $100-$110 mil. I still think it will break $100 mil opening weekend-- this is a weak summer and there really are no family movies. If Kung Fu Panda can make $60 mil opening weekend, there's space for family movies to flourish.

With the Heath Ledger hype, I do think Dark Knight might be one of the top 5 openings of all time. $120 mil plus.

Posted by Shane Cooper (Member # 2510) on 06-29-2008, 12:44 PM:

$100 million opening? Not so much...

$62.5 million for WALL-E
$51.1 million for Wanted

I am guessing this was a lot closer than Disney would have expected.

Wanted had the better per screen average at $16,100 vs. $15,600 for WALL-E.

Who would have thunk it? [Confused]

Posted by John Hawkinson (Member # 1135) on 06-29-2008, 12:47 PM:

Those are per-THEATER averages, not per-SCREEN averages. It's very hard to get reliable screen count (or print count) data, and, of course, you can conceivably argue that it doesn't matter...

--jhawk

Posted by Ben Goodman (Member # 4770) on 06-29-2008, 09:55 PM:

I was certainly expecting a bigger opening, but I guess Pixar movies just don't gross as much as your average Shrek...

Posted by Galen Murphy-Fahlgren (Member # 4535) on 06-29-2008, 10:01 PM:

Lame. I even paid to see it the second time, you'll notice my $4 contribution to the cause when the final numbers come out. I probably won't pay to see it the next two times though.

Posted by Justin Hamaker (Member # 2165) on 06-30-2008, 01:11 AM:

quote: Ben Goodman
I was certainly expecting a bigger opening, but I guess Pixar movies just don't gross as much as your average Shrek...

I'm sure there was some impact from the Mid-West flooding and the fires in Northern California. How much would be difficult to impossible to quantify. Plus, I think there are some people who are waiting for this coming week(end) when they have extra time off.

I wouldn't worry too much about a "soft" opening. Word of mouth is very positive so that should help it have legs.

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 06-30-2008, 07:39 AM:

Even with the soft opening, it's a close race between Wall-E and Monsters, Inc for 3rd highest pixar opening. Finding Nemo and The Incredibles both opened around $70M. Pixar movies tend to make their money with legs and not the huge openings like Shrek.

It'll be interesting to see how Wall-E ends up. Could Finding Nemo have been the peak grosser of Pixar similar to how The Lion King was the peak of modern era Disney animation?

Posted by Matt Fields (Member # 3211) on 06-30-2008, 09:27 AM:

Prediction:
Toy Story 3 will outgross Nemo, mostly because of higher ticket prices.

Posted by Ben Goodman (Member # 4770) on 07-01-2008, 02:19 PM:

What really was disappointing was how much Wanted overpowered Wall-E's impact on the concession stand. We didn't make nearly as much of a profit as expected-- Wanted is not your typical popcorn movie. Hopefully Hancock will be...

Posted by Michael Brown (Member # 890) on 07-01-2008, 09:07 PM:

Did Kung Fu Panda already open in America? How did that do?

In the UK this weekend it's Hancock vs Kung Fu Panda.

We don't get Wall E for another 3 weeks.

Posted by John Hawkinson (Member # 1135) on 07-01-2008, 09:28 PM:

In general, I recommend www.boxofficemojo.com for US box office information. They do an excellent job of reporting daily and weekly gross actuals, number of theatre estimates in advance, weekend estimates of Friday box office, etc. All for free.

Kung Fu Panda opened in the US on June 6th and has booked $181M of domestic (US) gross, and $102M of international gross. It booked $60M on its first weekend (domestic), $34M the next, then $22M and $12M. The first weekend it beat out You Don't Mess With The Zohan (opening at #2for $39M), the second weekend it was beat out by the Hulk (opening weekend), but it still beat out M. Night's The Happening (also its opening weekend). In the third weekend, Get Smart opened and beat it, as did the Hulk, but it still beat out The Happening as well as the newly-opening Love Guru.

This weekend it was behind #1 Wall-E, #2 Wanted, and #3 Get Smart.

--jhawk

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 07-01-2008, 11:30 PM:

A Mickey Mouse cartoon would have beaten Love Guru with its figures.

[eyes]

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 07-04-2008, 09:58 PM:

quote: John Wilson
Will Smith can do no wrong box-office wise. Don't expect this to be any different, regardless of its rating.

From Box Office Mojo...

>>From Tuesday night previews through Thursday, 'Hancock' has collected an estimated $41.3 million.<<

[eyes]

Posted by Ben Goodman (Member # 4770) on 07-05-2008, 12:55 AM:

Looks like Hancock is on target for $100 mil over the 5-day weekend, and I'm betting there'll be a pretty steep drop next week.