Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: Single Screen Dilemma 2008: Twilight, or Bolt?

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Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 10-17-2008, 11:00 PM:

Haven't done one of these in a while, but this one is a real stumper.

BOLT is a Disney family film of course, and TWILIGHT has every female in the civilized world salivating.

The big negative I can see for Bolt is that it's 3D, and we're not digital. The negative on Twilight is, it apparently only appeals to 50% of the adult population. (We haven't had a man inquire about the film yet, but lots of women have.)

The other thing is, we will have just played Madagascar 2 and High School Musical, so Bolt would make it 3 kids' shows in a row....we do well with kids shows, but the adults like movies too.

What's a single screen to do? Opinions are welcome!

Posted by Dustin Mitchell (Member # 372) on 10-18-2008, 12:48 AM:

Is Bolt exclusively 3D or is it available in 2D also? If its 3D only I'd say go with Twilight. It may only appeal to 50% of the population but at least some of those 50% will be dragging the other 50% along with them.

Posted by Louis Bornwasser (Member # 3063) on 10-18-2008, 06:39 AM:

Believe it or not, women control the movie decision at least 80% of the time. The decision is obvious. Louis

Posted by Monte L Fullmer (Member # 2797) on 10-18-2008, 01:38 PM:

Go after the one with less contract condition on the break then you can grab the other off off-break and get a slight reduction.

I'm sure that "Bolt" will be 2D for us "film handlers" for we have it on our watch list and we don't have any digital setup

. Disney wouldn't squeeze out it's fan base releasing for 3D only.

Wait until yu face the same choice when "Australia" comes out (woo..and at 177minutes...)

Major "chik flik" .... - Monte

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 10-18-2008, 02:22 PM:

If you don't have direct competion, Bolt in 2D should do well. If it's 10 miles for people to see it in 3D they might. If its 20 miles they won't (for the most part).

The 2D vs. 3D issue comes into play where you have nearby competion and don't have 3D.

We've elected not to play the 2D version in complexes where we have 3D capability.

Posted by Justin Hamaker (Member # 2165) on 10-18-2008, 03:32 PM:

I would opt for Bolt over Thanksgiving. The big problem I see with Twilight is it's probably going to be heavily front loaded to the opening weekend. I think Bolt is the way to go even if there is a 3D location relatively close. There should be plenty of families that aren't going to be willing to pay the extra $2-$3 a head for 3D or drive extra distance for 3D.

ComingSoon.net has a couple extended clips of Bolt and it looks pretty damn entertaining. http://www.comingsoon.net/films.php?id=10052

Posted by Galen Murphy-Fahlgren (Member # 4535) on 10-18-2008, 04:26 PM:

Bolt, because there was a launch party at the bookstore next to my old theater for the latest book in the Twilight series, and there were 14 year old girls dressed as vampires. Do you want 14 year old girls dressed as vampires in your theater? I do not want 14 year old girls dressed as vampires in my theater ever again. You shouldn't either. Play Bolt.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 10-18-2008, 05:17 PM:

Some info: The nearest 3-D to us is the Carmikeplex in Billings, 100 miles away. But keep in mind that in Montana, people will drive 100 miles for way less important things than to see a movie.

I was leaning Twilight until reading some of these pro-Bolt answers. I do think Twilight will have a huge first weekend and a steep drop after. Lord of the Rings it will not be. The big ? is week 2...people home for the holiday and whatnot.

Posted by Jonathan M. Crist (Member # 413) on 10-18-2008, 05:19 PM:

Mike - You are a small town. In a small town you go with family classic ... not trendy. Bolt all the way!

[ 10-18-2008, 06:39 PM: Message edited by: Jonathan M. Crist ]

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 10-18-2008, 07:11 PM:

Bolt...no question.

Posted by Monte L Fullmer (Member # 2797) on 10-18-2008, 07:27 PM:

Kinda leaning towards "BOLT" now.

For you can let the "CarlMike Crapaplex" give you the results on how "Twilight" (do you subscribe to Rentrak?) on their grosses for opening week and thereafter.

That way when you're done with "BOLT", you can grab it on a off-break pricing and still have the crowd that didn't want to make the drive to Billings (and who knows' it could be a blizzard over there at that time) and just stay in your community.

-Monte

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 10-19-2008, 09:04 AM:

quote: Mike Blakesley
The other thing is, we will have just played Madagascar 2 and High School Musical, so Bolt would make it 3 kids' shows in a row

Another good reason to take it...it's the same audience and they'll have all seen the trailer.

Posted by Ky Boyd (Member # 23) on 10-19-2008, 04:06 PM:

Families go to the movies over Thanksgiving weekend. Bolt will be something that the kids, parents and grandparents can all attend and no one is going to be embarrassed. 14 year old teenage girl vampires are going to make some uncomfortable and look for other alternatives. I'd go with Bolt. And John is right, you'll have all the kids and parents primed for it because they've seen the trailer. Plus the HSM3 girls will get excited because Mylie (or however its spelled) Cyrus is in it (sort-of). Twilight will make a nice fill between Thanksgiving and Christmas if it turns into anything at all.

Posted by Justin Hamaker (Member # 2165) on 10-19-2008, 04:11 PM:

If it helps any, my boss saw Bolt at ShowEast. He thought it was a cute movie that should really appeal to families. He saw it in 3D, but said he didn't feel it needed to be in 3D.

Posted by Andrew Bangs (Member # 4938) on 10-20-2008, 02:38 AM:

The 14 year olds girls come see the movie and there done the kids however keep dragging there parents back to see the movie again and again. gotta love repeat business... Go with Bolt!

Posted by Betsie Beadling (Member # 591) on 10-20-2008, 06:50 AM:

Id go for Bolt!!!!
And i am a Woman!!!!

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 10-20-2008, 07:29 AM:

'Course, we'll never know that for sure, until you send in your picture for over here...

<<-------

[Wink]

Posted by Ky Boyd (Member # 23) on 10-20-2008, 06:40 PM:

Andrew makes an excellent point about repeat business and kid flicks.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 10-20-2008, 07:00 PM:

True -- that + the part about famillies and the holidays, and the fact that Twilight might be a one-time vs repeats for Bolt, I'm starting to lean to Bolt.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 10-20-2008, 08:11 PM:

If Twilight had some A-list names and a director with a track record of previous hit releases then it would be a good choice. If lots of women are interested in the movie, they'll drag their boyfriends/husbands along to the movie.

Unfortunately Twilight doesn't have those variables on its side. On top of that Summit Entertainment, instead of a major film distributor, is handling the release. They may not have the marketing muscle to advertise the movie well, even if the movie turns out to be really good.

Bolt seems like a safer choice, even if showing it on 35mm and 2D.

Posted by Matt Fields (Member # 3211) on 10-21-2008, 07:41 AM:

I would lean toward Bolt, but one thing to consider would be that the Twilight fans are very excited about the movie and are more likely to travel and see Twilight somewhere else instead of waiting.

The Bolt audience, on the other hand, is larger but not as excited.

Posted by Michael Brown (Member # 890) on 10-21-2008, 05:52 PM:

I'm assuming running them both would be out of the question? Running 'Bolt' during the day with evening shows of 'Twilight' would be ideal.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 10-21-2008, 06:57 PM:

Yep, out of the question. You can never "share" a screen with two major movies; and with Disney you can never share a screen, not no way, not no how. (Unless you're a drive-in or the movies are many weeks old.)

Posted by Tristan Lane (Member # 1169) on 10-21-2008, 07:15 PM:

We've been getting calls nonstop about Twilight ticket sales with people wanting to purchase 20 at a time.

Bolt or Bolt 3D - no calls.

Posted by Justin Hamaker (Member # 2165) on 10-21-2008, 07:46 PM:

Tristan, the thing that I fear about Twilight is it will turn out like another Eragon. That movie was supposed to have a huge following that would lead to major box office. While it did ok, I would hardly call it huge.

I'm afraid Twilight will be a similar story. A group of rabid fans, but not much interest among everyone else. In fact, when we ran the trailer with The Dark Knight, the overwhelming reaction was "What the Fuck".

Posted by Michael Brown (Member # 890) on 10-22-2008, 12:44 PM:

quote:
Yep, out of the question. You can never "share" a screen with two major movies;

I thought as much. The only experiance I've had with a single screen was in a college run, second run environment.
[Smile]

Posted by Mitchell Dvoskin (Member # 751) on 10-22-2008, 12:53 PM:

I fear about Twilight is it will turn out like another Eragon

The problem with Eragon (the movie) is that it was not very good, and the subject matter skewed decidedly male.

I have no idea if Twilight is any good, but if it is, it has definate potential. Remember Titanic made so much money from teenage girls seeing it multiple times.

Posted by Sam Graham (Member # 2889) on 10-27-2008, 09:22 AM:

On KSL's Movie Show on Friday, Megaplex Theatres announced they had already sold out midnight shows of "Twilight" on 50 of their available 70 screens.

I have no idea what Twilight is, but I'm starting to understand why Potter got moved.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 10-27-2008, 10:21 AM:

I think we're going to wind up going with Bolt. Disney, family friendly fare trumps edgy, female skewing vampire movie over the holiday period. If it had been mid-summer I might have thought differently.

The cool thing is, we have teaser onesheets for Twilight that have the original Dec. opening date on them - that might be the date we wind up playing the film. Some people who aren't totally jacked into release dates might still think we're playing it on the break!

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 10-27-2008, 04:27 PM:

True, but I don't think those people will be interested in seeing Twilight either. [Wink]

Twilight will make some dough, but I think you've made a sound decision to go with Bolt on the break. [thumbsup]

Posted by Brad Allen (Member # 470) on 10-27-2008, 11:29 PM:

Bolt.

Posted by Eric Hooper (Member # 1730) on 11-22-2008, 01:33 PM:

Hmmm. Opening day estimates:

Twilight: $35.7m - PTA $10,442

Bolt: $7.1m - PTA $1,945

Bolt should do well Saturday and Sunday though, and hold steady business through Thanksgiving.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 11-22-2008, 03:20 PM:

Yeah, I'm thinking Bolt will have better legs. Lots of families are probably waiting to see it until T'giving weekend.

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 11-23-2008, 06:02 PM:

Twilight took an estimated $70,553,000 for the 3 days. That's huge and possibly a November record (if it stands up it'll possibly beat The Incredibles) but...

quote: Tyler Potts from another thread talking about Twilight's opening
Our Thurs midnights were packed (made history, interlocked 3 houses for the 1st time!), Friday night ran interlocks, mildly busy Saturday, and dead by Sunday.

Look for another record in the second week...a record dip from week one to two.

Feeling better about taking Bolt now Mike?

BTW, anyone know what percentage Summit are taking for Twilight?

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 12-08-2008, 07:10 PM:

Well Bolt did quite well for us. Not up to some of our previous Thanksgivings, but totally acceptable.

We'll be playing Twilight this weekend -- I'm glad I saved all the trailers and one-sheets that had "12/12" on them...Maybe some out-of-touch people will think we're playing it on the break!

Now on to the next dilemma -- "Bedtime Stories" or "Marley and Me" for Christmas. This is even worse - they're both after the exact same audience. Adam Sandler has a lot of detractors, but his movie IS a Disney. Owen Wilson...well, a lot of people don't like him either, but he's got the cute dog/tearjerker effect going. Decisions, decisions....

Posted by Monte L Fullmer (Member # 2797) on 12-08-2008, 09:31 PM:

I'd go "Bedtime Stories" being the Disney. "Marley and Me" can wait down the road.

Boy. did "Twilight" took a mean slide after the opening week...!

Posted by Anslem Rayburn (Member # 1267) on 12-09-2008, 03:32 AM:

"Bedtime Stories" appears to have more across-the-board appeal. Disney's name in front of it isn't going to hurt, either.

"Marley and Me" actually looks like a good movie, though the teaser trailer they put out for it might have been the dumbest ad for a movie I have ever seen.

Tough call, but I think "Bedtime Stories" will do better overall.

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 12-09-2008, 04:22 AM:

Tough indeed.

There are a few Moms and Pops (that was for Joe) out there who will not let their kids see an Adam Sandler movie no matter if it has Disney in front of it or not...period.

I am one of them.

We have coming attraction 'slides' before the show and 'Bedtime' gets no reaction yet 'Marley', with a cute puppy gets lots of "Awwwwwwwww" 's. So you've got a cute puppy for the kids and the teeny girls (you'll have a few of them in there this weekend...make sure you play the Marley teaser even if you're undecided) and then you also have Jennifer Anniston (for the boys) and Owen Wilson...well...um...he has a great surname.

I'd go Marley.

Posted by Ky Boyd (Member # 23) on 12-12-2008, 06:30 PM:

Marley, definitely. It's got great trailers and commercials all over the networks. The book is beloved by many. It is the big winner of Fox's Holiday line-up. I'ver heard predictions of $175 million for this one.

Bedtime Stories also has a great trailer, but the Disney name and Adam Sandler may be an oxymoron for both parents and Sandler's core audience. It might turn out great, but it might not.

Posted by Benny Walters (Member # 4894) on 12-12-2008, 07:47 PM:

Marley & Me, I think you will get a lot more business out of this movie. We had a press screening earlier this week and it was very well received. Also, I think a movie made after a bestselling novel is going to have more of a built-in interest factor.

The only reason I am remotely interested in Bedtime Stories is for Russell Brand, he had me rolling in the aisel during Forgetting Sarah Marshall.

Posted by Ky Boyd (Member # 23) on 12-13-2008, 01:41 AM:

I forgot to mention in my earlier post that of all the holiday movies last week the only movie tracking as high as Marley & Me was the Will Smith film Seven Pounds. Every other upcoming release had less awareness than Marley & Me and Seven Pounds.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 12-13-2008, 09:59 AM:

We had to flip the switch on this one yesterday, so I went with Marley. The trailer put it over the top. We've been running the two trailers back-to-back for several weeks -- Great audience reaction on Marley vs a lot of ho-hum on Bedtime Stories.