Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: Is this year the most underwhelming holiday film lineup ever?

This is topic Is this year the most underwhelming holiday film lineup ever? in forum Ground Level at Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE.

To visit this topic, use this URL:
https://ft-forum.com/ft/cgi-bin/ubb/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=5;t=002456

Posted by Michael Riley (Member # 5693) on 12-14-2010, 09:54 AM:

I've only been working in the business for about 7 years now, but I think this year may be the worst holiday lineup I've seen so far. With Narnia having bombed this week, and early projections for Tron showing that it might go the same way, it's been a bad season for business. Even the usual can't miss films like Harry Potter and Tangled have underperformed, and I really don't think the Fockers or Gullivers Travels will be enough to turn business around. Is it really just the film product that's to blame here, or might this be a sign to come for 2011?

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 12-14-2010, 10:48 AM:

It is an uninspired year. It's the first year in quite a while that there hasn't been a big decision to make over what to play on the break -- this year we aren't playing anything on the break, except Harry Potter.

I always thought Narnia looked like soiled goods after Disney dropped the franchise. I never could (and still don't) understand why they are making a Tron sequel when the original was nothing to crow about.

Posted by Michael Brown (Member # 890) on 12-14-2010, 10:55 AM:

Tron could be this years Speed Racer.

Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 12-14-2010, 11:04 AM:

Hopefully Tron will at least be a good movie. Speed Racer definitely was not. Mike, it had a niche appeal, certainly not everyone's cop o' tea. I enjoyed it.

Posted by James Westbrook (Member # 3690) on 12-14-2010, 11:26 AM:

I am leaning, somewhat ambivalently, toward True Grit being the main holiday film. The children are not going to want to see it, but it should score with the "Secretariat" crowd. (In my neck of the woods, those are people who are old enough to enroll in AARP.)

Posted by Adam Fraser (Member # 1074) on 12-14-2010, 12:06 PM:

This year has been lackluster from beginning to end, with a semi decent early fall for us.

Films seem to be dropping off faster and faster with studios that seem to require longer runs at higher percentages for average films.

We have also been denied several films by studios that we wanted to play, even when we could have grossed $6-10k on opening week for them. I know those are not great numbers for a 20 plex in a metro area, but they are good for a small town single.

Mike, have you been denied any first runs since you went digital?

Posted by Tom Petrov (Member # 1534) on 12-14-2010, 12:23 PM:

quote: Michael Riley
early projections for Tron showing that it might go the same way

I am curious to know where you got this information from?

I don't think its been a bad year so far. Last weekends movies were off just 1% from the year before.

quote:
can't miss films like Harry Potter and Tangled have underperformed,

Please, tell me how these two movies have underperformed?

Harry Potter is projected to finish at $300m, and Tangled is projected to finish at $175m.

Also, Unstoppable didn't do too bad, $75m and Due Date is at about $100m right now.

And lets not forget Megamind. $140m.

We still have Black Swan to go wide and The Fighter which both will do very well.

Posted by Adam Fraser (Member # 1074) on 12-14-2010, 12:32 PM:

Harry Potter had respectable 1st and 2nd weeks for us, the worst 3rd and 4th weeks we have ever had for any 4 week run of any film in the past 10 years.

Posted by Tom Petrov (Member # 1534) on 12-14-2010, 12:36 PM:

quote: Adam Fraser
Harry Potter had respectable 1st and 2nd weeks for us, the worst 3rd and 4th weeks we have ever had for any 4 week run of any film in the past 10 years.

Yeah, well it also had the highest ever debut for a Harry Potter film.

So, the drop means nothing.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 12-14-2010, 12:52 PM:

We had the same Potter results. Week 1 and 2 were good, week 3 was crickets.

Adam - the only problems we've had are on some of the bigger titles, they've wanted 3 or 4 weeks when with film we might have gotten them for 2 weeks. (But it's possible they were pushing for 3 or 4 weeks on those titles on film too this year -- I don't know.)

Posted by Michael Riley (Member # 5693) on 12-14-2010, 12:53 PM:

Numbers I saw from Rentrak a few days ago had Tron pegged at a 35 million dollar OW, which for a movie with that level of hype and that kind of budget would be a bomb at worst and a huge dissappointment at best.

And in a world with higher ticket prices than ever before, including premium prices for 3-D and IMAX shows, doing just as good as previous entries in the series or movies that came out 5 years ago isn't very good at all.

Posted by Tom Petrov (Member # 1534) on 12-14-2010, 01:03 PM:

quote: Michael Riley
Numbers I saw from Rentrak a few days ago had Tron pegged at a 35 million dollar OW

Rentrak is wrong.

1. Jeff Bridges (reprisiing his role and he is an Oscar winner)
2. 3D from the "get-go" and not some 3D conversion like Narnia
3. Tron is the perfect type of movie for 3D
4. Rumours are circulating that Tron will push 3D boundries.

If these four are true, and the reviews are at least good, we will see a $60m opening.

Posted by Sam Graham (Member # 2889) on 12-14-2010, 01:28 PM:

There's a reason the original "Tron" is out of print and nowhere to be found on TV leading up to Legacy's debut...Disney doesn't want anybody to remember it because they think it'll hurt the new one.

And based on the actors and dialog in the trailers, I keep making comparisons to NBC's Knight Rider redux.

And Narnia...I didn't even know that was coming until two weeks before its opening when Brian sent me info for the website that he was launching it on the break. NOBODY was talking about that one. I didn't see a trailer for it ever in theaters, and there was NO television until about a week before.

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 12-14-2010, 01:59 PM:

quote: Michael Riley
Numbers I saw from Rentrak a few days ago had Tron pegged at a 35 million dollar OW

Are the folks at Rentrak on drugs or something?

Posted by Kurt Zupin (Member # 2751) on 12-14-2010, 02:08 PM:

quote: Tom Petrov
Rentrak is wrong.

1. Jeff Bridges (reprisiing his role and he is an Oscar winner)
2. 3D from the "get-go" and not some 3D conversion like Narnia
3. Tron is the perfect type of movie for 3D
4. Rumours are circulating that Tron will push 3D boundries.

If these four are true, and the reviews are at least good, we will see a $60m opening.

Tom Petrov is wrong.

Tron pushs nothing in 3D. Absolutely nothing! They could of done so many things with it, but failed to do so. Maybe they should of spent some of the money that they spent on the Effects, on the script. Jeff Bridges is a great actor, but he is not a bankable star, far from it actually. He has only two movies that have ever grossed over $100 million. Iron Man @ $318,412,101 and Seabiscuit @ $120,277,854. He has also only opened one movie over $20 million, that was Iron Man. Seabiscuit was next at $20.8 million. (Mr. Bridges Boxoffice numbers) I love Jeff Bridges, but he is not gaurantee that this film will be huge. I think it'll have a strong opening and a good 2nd and possible third with the Christmas business. Tron will probably open in the $40-50mil range, and its going to have a sharp drop after. I maybe wrong on this but I don't think I'm far off. I would be shocked if it opened north of $60 Million.

This year may be on par with last year as far as attendance and boxoffice receipts. But the quality of films coming out this year is not on par with last year. This is the worst summer we have seen in possibly the past 5 years. Sure, there are good movies. That happens every year, you always know that once the fall hits your going to see some good/great films. Thats a horrible argument. Also "Black Swan" will not do awsome when it goes wide, "Black Swan" is not for everyone. Ballet is going to turn off a number of people, it will do good but not gangbusters. Fighter has more wide appeal then "Black Swan" because of the stars and its a story that has a wider appeal to the general moving going public.

quote: Tom Petrov
Yeah, well it also had the highest ever debut for a Harry Potter film.

So, the drop means nothing.

This drop means everything!! Guys like Adam and Mike who are only going to show this film for 3 or 4 weeks, this means the world. A film that has no legs and blows its load in the first week or two makes them almost no money. Even for the megaplex's that drop means the world. After the first two weeks, I showed Harry Potter to an average of 8 customers a show during the weekdays at the IMAX. And I would say our average at the main side was in the 15 or so people a show range. Weekends were not much better. So please Tom, explain why Potter dropping 60% its second weekend, and 50% in its 3rd and 4th weekends means nothing? We are all dying to hear [Roll Eyes]

Posted by Gordon McLeod (Member # 33) on 12-14-2010, 02:31 PM:

Tom said "Yeah, well it also had the highest ever debut for a Harry Potter film.

So, the drop means nothing. "

wrong the studios make the biggest cut in the first week and the average percentage drops so ideally a long run is ideal
2 week wonders only make the studio money

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 12-14-2010, 04:13 PM:

Actually Potter is a Sliding Aggregate film so the percentage is the same no matter what week it is.

But those empty houses in week 3 and 4 aren't helping anyone's concession sales.

For what it's worth, Boxoffice is predicting $55 mil for Tron opening weekend.

Posted by Jonathan M. Crist (Member # 413) on 12-14-2010, 04:30 PM:

The weak slate of films this year is a direct by-product of the writers strike.

Add to this that gas has now hit $3.00 a gallon - which most economists agree is the current psychological break point for discretionary spending - and people are going to be really careful about doling out for mediocre faire.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 12-14-2010, 04:33 PM:

quote: Jonathan M. Crist
gas has now hit $3.00 a gallon - which most economists agree is the current psychological break point for discretionary spending

I don't buy that with regard to movie ticket spending though. There wasn't a huge drop in attendance two years ago when gas was over $4.00 a gallon.

Posted by John T. Hendrickson, Jr (Member # 849) on 12-14-2010, 09:23 PM:

Don't anybody get your hopes up over the holiday fare this year. More remakes and sequels. Very little originality. Narnia is tanking, and so is The Tourist. Yogi in 3D? Give me a break. Don't see an audience for Gulliver. That leaves Fockers, and there isn't enough there to salvage the season. Tron? It will be DOA.

But don't worry folks. The suits out on the west coast will all collect their holliday bonuses. And the percentages will go up again next year.

And all this [bs]

will be out on DVD in 3 months anyway.

Isn't this a great business??

Posted by Chad Souder (Member # 343) on 12-14-2010, 09:55 PM:

quote: Tom Petrov
We still have Black Swan to go wide and The Fighter which both will do very well.

Doubt it. Black Swan's expansion will still keep them under 1000 screens and The Fighter is yet another Mark Wahlberg Rags-To-Riches story. He's proven that he alone does not bring in viewers and I doubt the Christian Bale thing adds anything here since he looks terrible. The only movies Bale has ever been in that have grossed anything were either called Batman or Terminator when he was an action star that weighed more than Calista Flockhart. This is a movie about an athlete nobody has ever heard of in a sport nobody cares about.

quote: Tom Petrov
If these four are true, and the reviews are at least good, we will see a $60m opening.

On a movie that reportedly cost over $300 mil? Wow, I bet those execs are jumping for joy at that possibility. [Roll Eyes]

I think the only thing to keep our fingers crossed for is True Grit and Yogi. Fockers is just more of the same. Tron is visually stunning, but lacking story or appeal to a wide audience, Gulliver's Travels is so bad it got pushed back to Christmas day, and there is no Avatar or Blind Side coming so we'll all fall well, well short of last year's December when it's all said and done.

Maybe Yogi will have a little Alvin and the Chipmunks magic in him and it will help the matinee popcorn sales, but I wouldn't expect the 3D to do anything special. Parents have already shown they're not willing to pay the extra for the entire family.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 12-15-2010, 12:18 AM:

At my AMBUCS civic club meeting Monday the guest speaker talked about the spirit of Christmas and the importance of just making the effort to spread a little joy and think about others during the holidays. He led off his talk about this year's holiday movie season. There's little, if any movies involving Christmas. That's a first in quite a few years. Our local newspaper ran an article Sunday on the same thing.

I definitely think this is a "down" year in terms of big event movies released during the holiday season. And that's even with not factoring in the huge business Avatar did last year.

I loved the first Tron movie. But in 1982 I was in middle school and geeking out over computers (and coin-op video games) at the time. Being into art and graphics I was blown away by the look of the '82 film. Regardless if you like the movie or not, it was absolutely ground breaking both in terms of technology as well as visual style.

Tron: Legacy isn't ground breaking. The 3D stuff, CGI and effects compositing work has been repeated in other movies. While the movie's look is more polished, I think it's also too realistic looking. The original movie may be far more crude in technological terms, but the abstract look of it has a charm to it not found in this new movie.

Because of those "been there done that" issues, I'm not very optimistic about the chances of Tron: Legacy making lots of money. I hope I'm wrong about this and that the movie is at least a modest hit. That way Disney will spend a decent amount of money to create a high quality Blu-ray of Tron rather than just go through the motions.

Posted by Tom Petrov (Member # 1534) on 12-15-2010, 12:43 AM:

quote: Chad Souder
Doubt it. Black Swan's expansion will still keep them under 1000 screens and The Fighter is yet another Mark Wahlberg Rags-To-Riches story. He's proven that he alone does not bring in viewers and I doubt the Christian Bale thing adds anything here since he looks terrible

Well, I have yet to see The Fighter but both Black Swan and The Fighter will play right into late January when the Oscar nominations role out.

Word of mouth for the The Fighter is going to be very good. Black Swan is already getting outstanding word-of-mouth.

These are two movies that I would want to be playing in my theatre for the next four-six weeks. And you don't need expensive 3D to be playing them.

As for True Grit, not a single Golden Globe, will do Ok. It will be cool to have two Jeff Bridges movies out within weeks of each other.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 12-15-2010, 03:39 AM:

quote: Tom Petrov
both Black Swan and The Fighter will play right into late January when the Oscar nominations role out.

Oooh that really makes it more exciting, considering that most of the Oscar nominations are usually for flop movies.

Notice I mean "flop" as in $$, not as in how good they are.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 12-15-2010, 09:29 AM:

Black Swan isn't exactly a mainstream movie. I don't think any of Darren Aronofsky's could be considered mainstream. Not even The Fountain. Seems kind of strange that he was chosen to direct The Wolverine; maybe Hugh Jackman had something to do with getting him on board.

Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 12-15-2010, 10:16 AM:

Black Swan looks stupid. The only thing I even remember from the trailer is what's-her-face digging a thorn or some such thing out of her skin for a reason that wasn't explained. Plus, ballet sucks.

Posted by Brian D. Whitish (Member # 825) on 12-15-2010, 10:24 AM:

I manage an art house and we opened Black Swan to the best business we have had since Up In The Air. We open Kings Speech on Xmas day and for my theater it looks like a great xmas lineup that should carry us thru Feb. For commercial theaters I feel sorry. What a bunch of junk out there. I do hope that True Grit is good.

Posted by Tom Petrov (Member # 1534) on 12-15-2010, 12:05 PM:

quote: Brian D. Whitish
I manage an art house and we opened Black Swan to the best business we have had since Up In The Air.

I have seen it, it is going to do solid buisness for a long while. Same thing with the fighter. More than any other films, Black Swan and The Fighter are the two movies I would want playing in my theatre during the holidays.

As for True Grit, I am surprised that it did not get one single Golden Globe nomination. True Grit will do ok.

Posted by John T. Hendrickson, Jr (Member # 849) on 12-18-2010, 08:55 AM:

Well, FWIW, Tron tanked on opening day in our area. I heard that at one local theatre, Black Swain outgrossed it.

Is that the sound of bodies hitting the pavement in California this morning? [Eek!]

Posted by Caleb Johnstone-Cowan (Member # 3710) on 12-18-2010, 08:59 PM:

It doesn't help when the media reports how 'the UK has ground to a standstill' over four inches of snow, and tells people 'to stay at home'. Seriously, four inches of snow. I've been to Ontario in -20 degrees celsius and piles of snow up to my knees, and everything worked fine.

Posted by Monte L Fullmer (Member # 2797) on 12-18-2010, 09:43 PM:

quote: Bobby Henderson
Black Swan isn't exactly a mainstream movie

Fox Searchlight did the release.

As for "Tron", we have to remember that the majority of the generation heading to the movie theatres were born in the late 80's - at least 6 yrs after the original release. Thus, they could take the film as itself, but still be driven by curiousity on how it all began - in which they would be now wanting to see the 1982 original.

We "oldsters who were in our prime during the mid 70's were still licking our chomps from the Lucas/Spielberg releases between "Star Wars" and the then big current release from Unversal called "E.T".

"TRON" kinda snuck in to give us a break of another one of their attempts to make a Sci-FI release. At least, this time, it was a bit more mature and more eye catching with the induced CGI graphics that had the audiences spellbound with what was presented than their disasterous 1st attempt (and their first PG rated movie) called "The Black Hole" of 1979.

(On a side note, in late January will be the release of a remake of Chuck Bronson's, "the Mechanic" - the UA 1972 action thriller. This time with Jason Statham is doing Bronsons's role and Ben Foster is doing Jan Michael Vincent's role. Once again, one will prob have to see the 1972 original to see how this new remake will do. See how this one takes off since we are on this basic topic...)

-Monte

Posted by Edward Havens (Member # 4715) on 12-19-2010, 08:55 AM:

Getting back on the original topic...

There were a couple years in the 1980s that equalled or surpassed 2010 as an underwhelming holiday slate of films.

Thanksgiving/Christmas 1985 gave us such classics as Bad Medicine, A Chorus Line, Clue, Death Wish 3, Enemy Mine, Fever Pitch, The Jewel of the Nile, King Solomon's Mines, Krush Groove, Once Bitten, Rainbow Brite and the Star Stealer, Revolution, Rocky IV, Spies Like Us, Starchaser: The Legend of Orin, Target, Transylvania 6-5000 and Young Sherlock Holmes. But, it was also the season that brought us Terry Gilliam's Brazil, so it wasn't a total loss.

1986 wasn't much of a happy holiday at the movies either, but it did bring us the exquisite and underrated The Mosquito Coast, as well as the last theatrical release of Song of the South, so again it wasn't a total loss.

But 1984 was probably the worst year for holiday moviegoing, saved only by the lingering Terminator and Amadeus, still playing as strong in November and December as they were in September and October. The last two months of 1984 brought us City Heat, Dune, Falling in Love, Johnny Dangerously, Just the Way You Are, Micki & Maude, Missing in Action, Mrs. Soffel, No Small Affair, Oh God You Devil, Protocol, Razorback, The River, Runaway, Supergirl, 2010 and the immortal Breakin 2: Electric Boogaloo. If it wasn't for Birdy and The Killing Fields, it would have been really depressing.

If you don't remember or have never even heard of most of these movies, consider yourself lucky. There is a reason we remember Beverly Hills Cop and not City Heat, even though the latter features Burt Reynolds and Clint Eastwood in their one and only on-screen matchup.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 12-19-2010, 12:26 PM:

Boxofficemojo has Tron at $43.6M for the weekend. Yogi Bear is at $16M, so I guess we know who wins this battle.

Yogi might hold better over the Christmas break as kids get out of school though.

In other news, here's a sign (if one is needed) that grosses are not as relevant as actual attendance figures: Harry Potter #7 is the second highest grossing Potter film, but the lowest attended. So now the WB honchos are probably crying that they should have made it in 3D.

Posted by Mike Frese (Member # 4361) on 12-19-2010, 02:52 PM:

Mike,

In western Missouri/Kansas it depended if the market was urban or rural. In the bigger cities, Tron significantly outperformed Yogi by at least 3 to 1 and at some of the larger theaters 5-6 to 1.

While towns smaller than 10,000, Yogi outperformed Tron.

Posted by Matt Fields (Member # 3211) on 12-19-2010, 04:02 PM:

My Yogi is over $1000 of my Tron (Both 3D). Rural market.

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 12-19-2010, 04:07 PM:

quote: Edward Havens
If it wasn't for (Birdy and) The Killing Fields, it would have been really depressing.

That's funny! [thumbsup]

Posted by Tom Petrov (Member # 1534) on 12-19-2010, 06:01 PM:

quote: Mike Frese
While towns smaller than 10,000, Yogi outperformed Tron.

Of course Yogi is going to perform better in smaller towns, most want to see TRON on the biggest screen possible. I would drive out of my way to see TRON if I had to.

quote: Mike Blakesley
Oooh that really makes it more exciting, considering that most of the Oscar nominations are usually for flop movies.

Notice I mean "flop" as in $$, not as in how good they are.

Oooh, looks like Black Swan is the big winner aside from TRON this weekend. It is grossing $8k per location. The $17million dollar Black Swan has pretty much made its budget back, and its in less than 960 theatres. Black Swan will play well into January.

Also Rabbit Hole and Kings Speech are doing solid business is you have one of the prints.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 12-19-2010, 09:21 PM:

quote: Tom Petrov
looks like Black Swan is the big winner aside from TRON this weekend. It is grossing $8k per location.

That means very little in the big picture. A limited release that's hyped in the big cities won't necessarily "play in Peoria" as they say. Hell, even Billings Montana can gross $8k PER DAY in their bigger auditoriums when they're playing a hit.

Posted by Michael Coate (Member # 757) on 12-19-2010, 09:58 PM:

quote: Edward Havens
Thanksgiving/Christmas 1985 gave us such classics as Bad Medicine, A Chorus Line, Clue, Death Wish 3, Enemy Mine, Fever Pitch, The Jewel of the Nile, King Solomon's Mines, Krush Groove, Once Bitten, Rainbow Brite and the Star Stealer, Revolution, Rocky IV, Spies Like Us, Starchaser: The Legend of Orin, Target, Transylvania 6-5000 and Young Sherlock Holmes.

You forgot "Santa Claus: The Movie."

"Young Sherlock Holmes," in my opinion, was a great movie. I believe it would've been a hit had it been cast with movie stars instead of unknowns.

And say what you will about "Rocky IV," but that was a fun opening-day experience and was a huge hit, doing over $100 million at a time when $100 mil meant something. (And as hard as it may be to believe, Sylvester Stallone in 1985 had not one but two films do over $100 million.)

quote: Edward Havens
1986 wasn't much of a happy holiday at the movies either, but it did bring us the exquisite and underrated The Mosquito Coast, as well as the last theatrical release of Song of the South, so again it wasn't a total loss.

"An American Tail"? "Star Trek IV"? "¡Three Amigos!"? "Little Shop of Horrors"? "Platoon"?

quote: Edward Havens
But 1984 was probably the worst year for holiday moviegoing, saved only by the lingering Terminator and Amadeus, still playing as strong in November and December as they were in September and October. The last two months of 1984 brought us City Heat, Dune, Falling in Love, Johnny Dangerously, Just the Way You Are, Micki & Maude, Missing in Action, Mrs. Soffel, No Small Affair, Oh God You Devil, Protocol, Razorback, The River, Runaway, Supergirl, 2010 and the immortal Breakin 2: Electric Boogaloo. If it wasn't for Birdy and The Killing Fields, it would have been really depressing.

"Starman"? "A Passage to India"? "The Cotton Club"?

Posted by Edward Havens (Member # 4715) on 12-19-2010, 11:26 PM:

Michael, we all know and remember the hits of each season. I was just illustrating that, compared to this year, the great to crap ratio in the mid 1980s was far worse.

And for the record, no one will ever be able to convince me The Cotton Club or ¡Three Amigos! were either good or successful.

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 12-19-2010, 11:29 PM:

quote: Edward Havens
Michael, we all know and remember the hits of each season.

We do?

Posted by James Westbrook (Member # 3690) on 12-20-2010, 12:58 AM:

Please pardon me but I'm very easy to distract...
I only recall Mrs Soffel, but not what it's about, because of a customer who showed up to the Fox theater to ask about the movie "Mrs Stoffer".
I recall Christmas 1988 being weak at my theater. We had Ernest Saves Christmas, My Stepmother is an Alien, Cocoon The Return and some Amy Irving movie about her dating some guy who sold pickles. There was a product shortage and our competition locked up Scrooged, Dangerous Laisons, Rainman (?) and the others.

Posted by Adam Fraser (Member # 1074) on 12-22-2010, 07:21 PM:

TRON is yet another huge dissapointment, lowest opening week grosses for us I can remember, averaging 20-30 patrons per night. And its not just us, some other local larger theatres that are showing it 3-5 times daily seem to be averaging 50-60 people for the entire day.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 01-31-2011, 02:46 PM:

Well, the holidays are over and the winner is: James Westbrook!

quote: James Westbrook
I am leaning, somewhat ambivalently, toward True Grit being the main holiday film.

Tron Legacy and Tangled both did more $ but nobody would have predicted True Grit to be such a hit. It shows that a remake can be high quality, be a niche film, be an award winner, and STILL pull good numbers.

It's got to be driving Disney nuts that Tangled is outgrossing Tron Legacy. I'm glad of that, too. It shows that an animated film can still be a musical based on a fairy tale and be a hit.

Posted by John T. Hendrickson, Jr (Member # 849) on 02-09-2011, 02:29 PM:

Rentrack figures are out for our area for the past 12 weeks. Overall, on average the entire area is down just shy of 30%!! Product is a big part of it.

If we don't get some decent product soon, everybody's going to be in trouble.

Anyone else seeing this trend?

Posted by Mike Frese (Member # 4361) on 02-09-2011, 04:37 PM:

Boxoffice.com has the ytd number through last weekend at -27.5%. We need a big turnaround fast.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 02-09-2011, 06:03 PM:

Comparing this year to last year isn't very meaningful at this point because we don't have an "Avatar" this year.

The same thing happened the year after "Passion of the Christ" was out; we didn't have a similar blockbuster that year so everyone was wringing their hands and saying the movie business was dying.

The same thing happened the year after "The Lion King" and "Mrs. Doubtfire" (both the same year) and also the year after "E.T."

And probably the year after "Gone with the Wind" too.

It's a cyclical business and always will be.

Posted by Kurt Zupin (Member # 2751) on 02-09-2011, 08:04 PM:

Everyone thats jumping off the ship because its down from this time last year is crazy. Just like Mike said, we don't have AVATAR going 20 weeks in the top 3. This summer is one of the most packed summers I can remember in a long time, there are a lot of movies coming up that are going to do well for an extended period of time as well as have huge openings. I can't remember seeing a summer line up with more movies that could open at more then $70mil each. I think we're in for a good year, better then last year by a landslide.

Posted by Mike Frese (Member # 4361) on 02-09-2011, 10:10 PM:

Certainly their is an Avatar factor. It was in the top 3 9 of it's first 10 weeks of release. It did $354 million in the comparable prior year ytd period. But, if you throw that out, you have to throw out the top performer this ytd (True Grit $93m). That still leaves you down 8%.

That number is skewed a bit as well. The best performers this year are not movies that typically do well for the smaller theaters:

Arthouse: Black Swan ($58 million ytd), King's Speech ($70m)

3d Since many smaller theaters do not have: Tron ($56m), Green Hornet ($88m)

R Rated: No Strings ($53m), Even Little Fockers is pretty raunchy for pg-13 ($70m)

Last year we had great performers for the smaller theaters: Sherlock Holmes ($100m), Chipmunks ($92m), Book of Eli ($84m), Blind Side ($46m) Lovely Bones ($42m)

The better grossing smaller theaters in my area are down at least 15% (except for one- take a bow Alex). These theaters did not do great with Avatar b/c most did not have 3d.

So there are legitimate concerns. I do agree that this summer looks very good. This spring looks very good for kid-friendly movies: Rango, Rio, Wimpy Kid 2, Hop, & Mars Needs Moms.

My concern is that if February does not turn around fast enough studios might cut back more than usual on prints.

Boxoffice.com predictions for the top 3 this weekend is $67 million while last year's top 3 was $116m. Bieber was cut from over $30m a couple of weeks ago to $17m.