Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: OMFG The Sun is on Fire!!!!

This is topic OMFG The Sun is on Fire!!!! in forum Film-Yak at Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE.

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Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 10-29-2003, 08:49 AM:

Earth is supposed to get the brunt of a recent solar storm today. Any chance of this shutting down digital cinema projectors? Did anyone solar-storm proof their house? All in all I think I'd rather have a huge downpour of acid rain... much more interesting and it helps get rid of stray animals (they just dissolve in the acid and down into the drain they go)!

Posted by John Pytlak (Member # 331) on 10-29-2003, 09:14 AM:

Here's the latest on this HUGE solar storm, which could severely affect radio communications and the power grid this week: [Eek!]

http://sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://sec.noaa.gov/forecast.html

quote:
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity continues at high levels. Region 486
(S17E04) produced one of the largest flares of this solar cycle, an
X17/4B proton flare peaking at 28/1110Z. This flare had intense
radio bursts including a 245 MhZ burst near 500,000 sfu and a
Tenflare of 13,000 pfu. A very fast (near 2000 km/s), earthward
directed full halo CME was observed on SOHO/LASCO imagery. Region
486, a beta-gamma-delta group with over 2100 millionths of white
light areal coverage, is now one of the largest and most complex
active regions of solar cycle 23. Region 484 (N03W68) maintains
considerable size and complexity as it approaches the west limb. It
produced occasional C-class activity and a low M-class flare at
28/1613Z. Region 488 (N08W04) continues its rapid growth and now
exceeds 800 millionths of coverage in a beta-gamma-delta
configuration. Frequent C-class flare activity was observed in this
region throughout the period. New region 493 (N09E05) was numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at high levels. Region 486 in particular, has potential to produce
further major flare activity. An isolated major flare is also
possible from Regions 484 and 488.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A CME was observed to pass
the ACE spacecraft at around 0130Z. Solar wind speed rose to near
800 km/s, but Bz stayed northward, thwarting a significant
geomagnetic response. The X17 flare that occurred at 28/1110Z
produced proton events at greater than 10 and greater than 100 MeV
which remain in progress at this time. The greater than 100 MeV
event began at 28/1145Z with a maximum so far of 176 pfu. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 28/1215Z with a maximum so
far of 6020 pfu. A polar cap absorption began at 28/1237Z and
remains in progress.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to potentially severe storming in
the next 24 to 48 hours. Today's X17 flare produced a large and fast
halo CME that will likely impact the Earth's magnetic field by
midday on day one. Past events of this magnitude have almost always
produced severe storming. The storm is expected to continue through
at least the first half of day two. Unsettled to minor storm levels
are expected on day three. The greater than 100 MeV proton event
is expected to end by day two. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event will likely persist through day three.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M 90/90/90
Class X 50/50/50
Proton 99/99/75
PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 274
Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 270/260/250
90 Day Mean 28 Oct 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 080/100-100/120-015/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/50
Minor storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 60/60/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/50
Minor storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 70/70/10

http://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms

quote:
Power systems: : widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.

Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.

Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)**.

http://www.arrl.org/news/stories/2003/10/28/102/?nc=1

quote:
NEWINGTON, CT, Oct 28, 2003--The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center (SEC) reports a powerful solar flare erupted today from vicinity of the huge region 486 sunspot at 1110 UTC. This resulted in a severe category R4 radio blackout with an associated strong category S3 solar radiation storm. Instruments on the SOHO satellite detected the event, the SEC said.

"The SOHO/LASCO instruments also observed a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with this activity, which is Earth-directed," the SEC said, adding that region 486 is the second largest observed during this solar cycle.

The SEC has predicted a geomagnetic A index of 50 or greater for October 29 (UTC) and an A index of 100 for October 30 (UTC). The noon solar flux October 28 at Penticton Observatory in British Columbia was a whopping 257. The geomagnetic K index was expected to reach 4.

SpaceWeather.com is calling the flare "one of the most powerful solar flares ever recorded." Brilliant auroras could appear when the fast-moving cloud of gas and particles sweeps past Earth. That could happen as early as tonight.

Residents of high-latitude locations such as the Northern United States from Northern New England to the Northwest as well as New Zealand, Scandinavia, Alaska, Canada could be treated to auroras, but these could show up in lower latitudes as well.

SEC says it expects a severe category G4 geomagnetic storm with periods of extreme category G5 levels possible as a result of this activity. The solar radiation storm also is expected to continue at strong levels for the next 48 hours.

"Further major eruptions are possible from these active regions as they rotate across the face of the sun over the next few days," the SEC said. "Agencies impacted by solar flare radio blackouts, geomagnetic storms, and solar radiation storms may experience disruptions through this period." These could include spacecraft operations, electrical power systems, HF communications, and navigation systems.

For more information visit the Propagation page on the ARRL Web site.

Even if sensitive digital equipment in theatres is unaffected, I suspect there may be some disruption of satellite communications.

Might be a good idea to avoid flying at high altitude this week, as you will be exposed to some higher than normal levels of ionizing radiation. Also, be careful about shipping sensitive electronic components like CMOS or CCD sensors, as they may suffer some dead pixels if hit with enough high energy particles from these solar flares.

The good news is that if you have a clear night tonight, there should be some pretty glowing auroras in the northern sky. [Cool]

Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 10-29-2003, 11:03 AM:

quote:
John P. Pytlak, Senior Technical Specialist
Customer Technical Services, Entertainment Imaging
Research Labs, Eastman Kodak Company wrote:
Might be a good idea to avoid flying at high altitude this week

Well that kind of puts the kabosh on the Film-Tech party this weekend. [Frown]

Posted by Jeff Stricker (Member # 224) on 10-29-2003, 11:09 AM:

Solar storm has been messing up amateur radio communications. I checked the 20 meter band this morning (14 MHz - normally a lot of signals present) it was DEAD. The 40 meter band (7Mhz) up until 11 AM today has still had propagation.

Posted by John Pytlak (Member # 331) on 10-29-2003, 11:22 AM:

Joe wrote:

quote:
Well that kind of puts the kabosh on the Film-Tech party this weekend.

For "Severe" Solar Radiation Storms: "elevated radiation exposure to passengers and crew in commercial jets at high latitudes (approximately 10 chest x-rays) is possible". So it's not only radio "PROPAGATION" that may be affected. [Eek!]

Posted by Scott D. Neff (Member # 185) on 10-29-2003, 11:30 AM:

Great -- so not only am I flying to the Southern California version of hell, I'll be doing it while the sun is pissed off.

[thumbsup]

FAN-TASTIC! [thumbsup]

Posted by Jeffry L. Johnson (Member # 453) on 10-29-2003, 11:47 AM:

SpaceWeather.com

Posted by Chris Hipp (Member # 1788) on 10-29-2003, 03:10 PM:

Just look ont he bright side, if you have a ham radio you may be able to talk to someone back in the 40's. Hmm, that would make a good movie! oh yeah, no it didn't.

Posted by Andrew Lee (Member # 1330) on 10-29-2003, 04:55 PM:

Everybody laughed at me today when I was walking around with tin-foil wrapped around my head and privates.......whose laughing now! [beer]

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 10-29-2003, 05:02 PM:

Awww! What's a few extra chest X-rays going to hurt? It's not any different from visiting the doctors office and accidentally hit the button to crank out a few more exposures to pad the health insurance claim!

Posted by Jeffry L. Johnson (Member # 453) on 10-29-2003, 06:40 PM:

Research Shows Higher Cancer Risk for Flight Crews

Reuters Health

Wednesday, October 22, 2003

LONDON (Reuters) - New research released Wednesday showed airline flight crews had a higher than normal rate of skin and breast cancer.

Researchers at the University of Iceland in Reykjavik found that flight attendants who had worked for five or more years were more likely to develop breast cancer.

And in a separate study, scientists at the Stockholm Center for Public Health in Sweden uncovered an increase in malignant melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer, among both male and female cabin crew.

Previous studies have also suggested that skin cancer and possibly acute myeloid leukemia were more common in male pilots and that female flight attendants had a raised risk of breast cancer.

"There is mounting evidence that cabin crew appear to have an increased risk of malignant melanoma and breast cancer," Dr. Elizabeth Whelan of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States said in a commentary on the studies published in the journal Occupational and Environmental Medicine.

Whelan said higher doses of cosmic ionizing radiation were found at higher altitudes. Doses that flight crews are exposed to have been increasing over time as longer flights at higher altitudes have become more common.

But she said more research was needed to determine whether the increased cancer risk is due to work or other lifestyle factors. Further studies being done in the European Union and the United States might provide more answers, Whelan added.

Posted by Manny Knowles (Member # 1171) on 10-29-2003, 10:53 PM:

I rather enjoyed FREQUENCY.

Posted by Dave Williams (Member # 299) on 10-30-2003, 04:46 AM:

I have had so much radiation pumped through me I am my own personal X-ray!

Dave

Posted by Mike Olpin (Member # 1115) on 10-30-2003, 05:28 AM:

quote:
Just look ont he bright side, if you have a ham radio you may be able to talk to someone back in the 40's. Hmm, that would make a good movie! oh yeah, no it didn't

HEY! I liked that movie.

Posted by Jeff Stricker (Member # 224) on 10-30-2003, 06:00 AM:

"Frequency" was a decent film, although they took some liberties with the radio aspects of it....The main coronal mass must have hit earth about noon EST yesterday (10/29). All HF amateur bands were kaput the entire afternoon. Storm is easing up now, but radio conditions still very "iffy".

Posted by Greg Mueller (Member # 17) on 10-30-2003, 08:24 AM:

Here's the vixen that's causing the problems. This is an unaltered photo of the evil sun spot. What does it look like to you?

The full sun image
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap031027.html

We have had on going aurora for the last few nights, actually days

Posted by Erick Akers (Member # 875) on 10-30-2003, 09:15 AM:

The house I am currently living in was built in 1954 and probibaly has enough lead paint to shield me from such danger. I have absolutely no luck when it comes to geting any real television or radio reception without an outdoor antenna, but I haven't had a sperm count lately. [Eek!]

Joe, I was told that it was a closed party, and wasn't an official Film-Tech Event [Roll Eyes]

Posted by Chris Hipp (Member # 1788) on 10-31-2003, 01:44 AM:

Truth be told, I haven't seen all of Frequency, but you guys are the first people that I have heard that liked it. Well except for some really old people.

Posted by Phil Hill (Member # 371) on 10-31-2003, 02:01 AM:

Erick, I have one of them thar "professional" Nikon Lab microscopes.... we always look and count the sperm at our parties... The most fun part is the sample giving... [beer]

>>> Phil

Posted by Daryl C. W. O'Shea (Member # 1303) on 11-03-2003, 12:59 AM:

Coot...

You're crazy.

Posted by Jeff Stricker (Member # 224) on 11-03-2003, 05:57 AM:

Another solar eruption at 1735 UTC Sun Nov 3. This one was on the edge of the solar disk so a lot of the bad stuff will be directed away from earth. However, we're still in for a glancing blow, with northern lights possible Tues or Wed.

Posted by Jason Black (Member # 684) on 11-03-2003, 10:35 PM:

Methinks Phil plays the role of 'pivotman' during his little "parties".

Posted by Phil Hill (Member # 371) on 11-05-2003, 02:36 AM:

So Jason, since you seem to be very knowledgeable about that term, would you mind explaining to us who aren't familiar with such things as to what it means and where you learned about it?

Thanks!

>>> Phil

Posted by Jason Black (Member # 684) on 11-06-2003, 01:27 AM:

Well Phil,

Since you asked for "enlightenment" (no pun intended nor implied!)... I actually learned of that word (and it's umm, involvement shoudl I say) upon unauthorized reading of your daily journal, scanned and distributed by a fellow lister (yet to be named). Now, if you'd rather me keep quiet about the true nature and details of your scribblings, I shall. After all, I'm not really sure that I even feel comfortable putting such information here, in such and easily accessible media.

However, being the devious shit that I am, I shall email, in private anyone interested the details of the aforementioned scribblings.

Note to self:
(wonder how long it'll take to get an email?)

Any further question for me Phil? [Big Grin]

Posted by Phil Hill (Member # 371) on 11-06-2003, 01:36 AM:

quote:
...devious shit...

Now who can argue with that?

>>> Phil