This is topic Earthquacks? Earthquakes Predicted for Southern California. in forum Film-Yak at Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE.


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Posted by Manny Knowles (Member # 1171) on 09-08-2004, 10:14 PM:
 
Everybody else is guessing. You might as well to...

Southern Californians are waiting for the next earthquake. Or so I am told...

Apparently, some scientists predicted that we would have one this week and then at the last minute they took it all back and said "never mind."

So...when will the next SoCal earthquake happen? Place your bets.

And feel free to discuss the news story about the scientists and the whole notion of earthquakes being predictable. Personally, I don't know enough about it to have an opinion. My gut tells me it's probably possible in the near future but the weather will probably always be a great deal more predictable. Maybe because that's something we can see. Also, with weather, things happen faster and so there's always a lot of new data coming in to confirm or challenge the validity of earlier predictions. I'm guessing that it would take much, much longer to accumulate quake-related data.

Surely, somebody on Film-Tech can shed some light on this topic. (Was that a pun?)

My guess: The Northridge quake (Jan 1994) happened one year after I arrived in Jan 1993. I just returned to L.A. last month so MY money is on August 2005 for the next one.

What I find revealing is that nobody felt the urge to evacuate when that recent prediction was handed down.
 

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Posted by Paul Mayer (Member # 355) on 09-08-2004, 11:24 PM:
 
People laughed at me during my first move back to LVNV from SoCal in May 1988. At the time the quatrains of Nostradamus were a big fad and of course one of them had been "interpreted" as a prediction for "the big one" to happen in SoCal that month. That month we did have the big bank tower fire in downtown LA, and the even bigger Pepcon explosion here, but no tembler. There was a run on rental trucks that first weekend of May--I had a hard time finding one for my move. Whether that was coincidence or some people deciding to flee is anyone's guess. It was the beginning of an economic downturn in SoCal and lots of people were bailing out anyway.

Fault lines are more than likely good examples of chaotic systems, and therefore will probably never lend themselves to precise predictions. We certainly will need a lot more detailed data before even rough predictions can be created, probably on the order of having sensors placed in every cubic mile of all known fault zones--and we don't even know where they all are at this point.

In meteorology we face the same problem, trying to predict the behavior of chaotic systems. We're beginning to get some good sensors out in the field now (laser wind profilers replacing radiosondes, WSR-88D Doppler radar, downlinked instrument packages flying on airliners)--a lot more than we've ever had. And we do have some good models out there like NCEP's RUC and the AGFS that can predict things like temperature and icing potential down to a granularity of one square mile horizontally and 1000' vertically. But try to predict much more than 24 hours ahead and things can still fall apart pretty quickly, as hurricane Charlie so clearly demonstrated a couple of weeks ago.

At best, I think earthquake predictions will end up looking like sets of probabilities, i.e. 40% chance of this, or 70% of that happening, with accuracy dropping off rapidly the further ahead one looks. A decade ago the Chinese looked like they were on to something in this field, but over time their success rate hasn't been any better than 50%--in other words no better than flipping a coin. Earthquake predictions accurate enough to justify the ordering of mass evacuations will more than likely remain a dream for quite some time.

August 2005 sounds like a good bet Manny. After all, August is prime time for SoCal "earthquake weather"...
 

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Posted by Bill Gabel (Member # 1105) on 09-09-2004, 09:55 AM:
 
August 2005 sounds like a good bet. Do you live close to the water now? When I lived in SoCal, I had dreams of living on bluffs over looking the ocean. But problem was I lived 2 miles from the ocean and the dreams were in the same house.
 

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Posted by Michael Schaffer (Member # 1204) on 09-09-2004, 12:02 PM:
 
A little earthquake would be nice. I have never experienced one, except for 2 little tremors last year. I don't want anyone to get hurt though.
 

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Posted by Ron Yost (Member # 1850) on 09-09-2004, 03:20 PM:
 
The moderate earthquake we had last December, just before Christmas, left 'only' two people dead, with fairly substantial property damage, and it has really changed our little town. It has caused much misery and expense for thousands of folks here, so I'm still a tad sensitive on the subject.

There are a few positive aspects of the earthquake, such as long-delayed retrofitting of very old unreinforced brick buildings being put on the front-burner. Of course, even retrofitting will do little good if a really 'big one' strikes, as it surely will someday.

The most directly-monitored (instrumented) section of the San Andreas fault lies just east of me, in Parkfield. I suppose the CalTech scientists are learning from all their instruments out there .. I certainly hope so. They recently did a major upgrade on their sensors and other instruments out there.

"Our" last quake wasn't on the San Andreas, so all the monitoring out there for the last decade or more did no good at all in predicting it, nor could it have.

Science is learning more and more, but I'd say it's a vain hope to believe understanding can lead to prediction anytime soon .. if ever. The scale of the problem is just too massive, I believe.

I'll place no bet, as I hope against all logic we (or anyone else) will never experience a damaging earthquake again. They're nothing remotely 'fun' to experience.

Personally, I think pigs will fly before reliable life-saving earthquake prediction comes along.

Ron Yost
 

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Posted by Adam Martin (Member # 641) on 09-09-2004, 06:35 PM:
 
Saratoga (near San Jose) experienced a minor (3.4) quake about an hour ago. It occurred about an hour after I left the area. I didn't do it.

There was also a "microquake" (2.1) an hour ago near The Geysers. That's about 25 miles from Ian's theater.

THE END IS NEAR! REPENT!
 

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Posted by Mark Gulbrandsen (Member # 72) on 09-09-2004, 07:58 PM:
 
So they have hurricanes in the Carribean, Earthquakes in California, Solor Wind particles all over the Utah desert, and way too much traffic up here in Jackson, WY.! Thats life!

Mark
 

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Posted by Aaron Mehocic (Member # 15) on 09-12-2004, 07:42 PM:
 
The proverbial "Big One" is a myth. Fact is California has a better chance of smashing into the east coast of China in about a billion years than it does falling off into the Pacific.

The world's crust consists of plates that move. You knew that since fifth grade science class. But what teacher probably didn't tell you is that there are three ways in which these plates move:
Divergent - pulling appart (Mid-Atlantic Ridge)
Convergent - pushing together (Coastal Chile)
Transform - sliding along side each other (San Andreas Fault)

Whats interesting about California quakes is the fact that their starting point isn't an epicenter under the state, but geologic activity thousands of miles away under the Atlantic Ocean. Each year the Atlantic grows while the Pacific shrinks. Endogenic process at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge are helping push North America further west. The San Andreas fault is the buckle between the North American Plate and the Pacific Plate. Right now (last million years) these plates are grinding away at each other. Eventually, California will overide the ocean - not fall in. The state will most likely be thrust up a few hundred meters as the North American Plate is heavier than the Pacific Plate. Once this happens, convergent activity will take place and North America is on a direct collision course with Asia.

I don't think we'll have to worry about it though.

Earthquakes are common all over the world and can occur at any point. Many are under 3.0 on the scale and don't warrant any news coverage. The last one we had here in western Pennsylvania was about six years ago and was 2.5 I think. Back in 1984 there was about a 4.0 under Lake Erie.

This is essentially the third day's lecture of my Intro to Geography class at the community college.
 

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Posted by Ron Yost (Member # 1850) on 09-12-2004, 10:20 PM:
 
What we call "The Big One" simply means a really large quake. Magnitude 6 or better. No one believes it will cause those of us on the eastern-edge of the Pacific Plate to fall off into the Great Blue Pacific. That's stupid movie stuff. (Or wishful thinking by easterners who are envious of California) haha

The scientists -do- keep telling us that a really large quake is overdue, especially in Southern California. That's "The Big One" of which I speak. Of course, who knows when?? Or where??

I also understand how we (on the Pacific Plate) are moving northward, relative to the North American Plate (the rest of you) .. everything east of the San Andreas. BTW, I believe the San Andreas is a right-bilateral strike-slip fault. That's what I've heard the CalTech folks call it on TV, at least.

It's very interesting what you said about the starting point of quakes. Makes perfect sense, though I've never heard that explanation. Guess I should take Geology 101.

Thanks!
Ron Yost
 

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Posted by Michael Schaffer (Member # 1204) on 09-13-2004, 05:42 AM:
 
If the West coast rises, does that mean the East coast will dip into the Atlantic?
 

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Posted by Paul Mayer (Member # 355) on 09-13-2004, 01:51 PM:
 
Hopefully!
 

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Posted by Ron Yost (Member # 1850) on 09-13-2004, 03:26 PM:
 
I don't know, Michael, but there are a lot of faults between California and the East Coast.

One of the largest quakes in U.S. history took place in 1811 and 1812 on the New Madrid fault .. in lower -Missouri-. Completely re-aligned the bed of the Mississipi River in the area, and turned it from a fairly straight-line into a huge S-shape! It could happen again, too .. only now the area is much more populated.

There's a really good website about New Madrid here:

The Great New Madrid Earthquake

So these things aren't restricted to California. It's just that we're on a plate boundary, and a 'junction' between plates is much more active, the way I understand it. Japan is in a similar situation. This whole science is called Plate Tectonics, btw, and there is a LOT of info on it on the net.

Ron Yost .. native Californian, floating around on the mantle like everyone else, and who has just exhausted his knowledge of quakes.

Ron Yost
 

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Posted by Randy Stankey (Member # 64) on 09-13-2004, 03:35 PM:
 

quote: Aaron Mehocic

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The last one we had here in western Pennsylvania was about six years ago and was 2.5 I think.

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quote: Michael Schaffer

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If the West coast rises, does that mean the East coast will dip into the Atlantic?

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No, but interestingly enough, parts of the east coast are also rising as a result of glacial activity during the Pleistocene Epoch (Ice Age) which ended here in Pennsylvania about 10,000 years ago. Earlier this spring I read a report done at the University of Chicago regarding topographical changes recorded across Canada and the Great Lakes region of the United States. Apparantly, Canada is rising as long-compressed soil bounces back after ten millenia since glacial ice last melted away.

Moreover, while the glaciers were melting, tons of debris that was transported down from the Arctic region by the ice sheets was released out onto the outwash plain that eventually became the states of Kentucky, West Virginia, and Maryland (in my area, at least). This filled in the ancient topography and left behind the current geography we see in those places today. Even as far south as Alabama and Mississippi, a type of soil called loam can be directly traced to particulate matter transported by wind activity away from the terminal moraine sites. These soils are some of the best soils in the world for agriculture and one reason as to why American farming pusuits in the early days of our republic were so prosperous. A big thanks to Gordon McLeod, Darryl C.W. O'Shea, and many of our other Canadian film-techers for depositing nature bounty on our shores .
 

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Posted by John Pytlak (Member # 331) on 09-15-2004, 07:54 PM:
 
The New York State "Finger Lakes" were formed by glaciers. Lots of undersea fossils in this area, and south of Buffalo in the 18-Mile Creek gorge. I live on a hill made of glacial till (lots of rocks in that fertile soil).
 

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Posted by Michael Schaffer (Member # 1204) on 09-15-2004, 08:00 PM:
 
So, if both the West and the East coasts are rising, will everything eventually slide down into the middle?
 

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Posted by Mike Olpin (Member # 1115) on 04-12-2005, 06:38 AM:
 
4.0 earthquake 11 miles away from my place! (Epicenter 3 miles from Jamul, 4:06AM) Woke me right up! It felt like an explosion. Slight rumbling, followed by a huge BOOM, then some more agressive rumbling. So who won the bet?
 

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Posted by Paul Mayer (Member # 355) on 04-12-2005, 11:44 AM:
 
Eastern suburbs of Tokyo in Chiba. They had a 6.1 day before yesterday.
 

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