Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: Predictions for the 'legs' of episode III

This is topic Predictions for the 'legs' of episode III in forum Film-Yak at Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE.

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Posted by Michael Barry (Member # 237) on 05-20-2005, 07:33 AM:

Anyone care to speculate how long it will be until this movie starts playing to near empty theatres?

I think the end of May will be pretty close to it, unless it attracts repeat viewings.

Anyone else?

Posted by Mike Heenan (Member # 392) on 05-20-2005, 10:30 AM:

I saw it last night at a 10:45 showing, with only 5 people total in the theater. [Big Grin]

Posted by Michael Barry (Member # 237) on 05-20-2005, 12:05 PM:

Was this a commercial screening, or did you run it for yourself? Sorry if this seems obvious already...

Posted by Mike Heenan (Member # 392) on 05-20-2005, 12:50 PM:

It was a commercial screening at a theater, sorry I didn't clarify that.

Posted by Jeremy Fuentes (Member # 2135) on 05-20-2005, 12:53 PM:

I saw it last night at a Cinemark, in their biggest house(something like 400 seats, I think), almost a packed house.

Posted by Rachel Gilardi (Member # 1016) on 05-20-2005, 05:38 PM:

My 10:00PM showing last night had 5 ppl in it, how sad.

And actually, my 1:45PM showing yesterday didn't even run...

Posted by Eric Hooper (Member # 1730) on 05-20-2005, 06:25 PM:

50 million opening day.

It will finish with 160 million over the four days.

It will then drop over 60% next weekend! [Razz]

This movie has no re-watchable qualities to it. Besides, as i mentioned in my review, those hardcore fans who would want to watch it again have already been trained by Hollywood that the DVD will be out within the next two months (see Flight Of The Phoenix).

Posted by Darryl Spicer (Member # 711) on 05-20-2005, 06:50 PM:

If it is anything like Attack of the clones, I will have one print running until September. Oh and I am not a Star Wars geek (Dress up like characters) type of a fan and I want to see it again. A feeling I didn't really have when Ep 1 and 2 came out. DVD I will be looking for it around Christmas.

Posted by Mike Heenan (Member # 392) on 05-20-2005, 06:58 PM:

They announced that the DVD will be out for Christmas not in the next 2 months.

Posted by Kurt Zupin (Member # 2751) on 05-20-2005, 08:16 PM:

This film will have legs, but once it hits middle of June there will be too much competition for it.

Eric I don't know what your talking about but this film has a lot of re watchable qualities. The fight scenes are worth it alone. I screened our two prints, then went and watched our 6:45 showing to a sold out show...188 people, the 7:10 showing in the second theater was a sell out as well. And I just got word that this evenings 6:45 and 7:10's both sold out. And all the showings during my shift today had at least half if not 3/4 full...considering people were in school and working thats very good. After three viewing I could go for a 4th and I'm not a Star Wars Geek either...I was entertained and wasn't left bored watching it.

Posted by Dylan Marchetti (Member # 2764) on 05-20-2005, 08:31 PM:

I think it'll drop rather fast- the last two dropped after two weeks, but there was little competition the week after. Next week is Madgascar and Longest Yard, both of which stand a good chance of pulling $35+ million each (I think Madgascar could grab 50 if they ramp up the ads a little bit). This'll sap youngsters and teens, leaving Star Wars for young adults and the hardcore fans who are already watching it four times this weekend.

Also, this one is far more overscreened than the last two- Lucasfilm dropped the digital sound requirements, and some of the more restrictive booking rules (this time drive-ins are OK, etc.), giving it something like 700-800 more locations. That tells me that while the last two were selling out during the first weekend, forcing people to try again later, this one won't have that happen. With something like 8,000 prints, if you want to see it this weekend you can.

I say if it pulls $150 this weekend, it drops 55-60% next week to a more reasonable $55-65.

Posted by Darryl Spicer (Member # 711) on 05-20-2005, 08:57 PM:

We have it on 4 screens right now and our booker told us that the fourth print would only play a week. Will be interesting to see how many prints will be dropped after the first week.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 05-20-2005, 09:12 PM:

Even though I liked EpIII in general, I don't see it playing to packed houses for anymore than a week. Attendance will start falling off rapidly then. The show will rake in a lot of money, but it will not play for long. It certainly won't have "legs." That's mainly over the studios' habit of making several thousand prints for a release rather striking a more normal number of 2000 to 3000 prints. Fewer prints would allow the films to play out in theaters longer.

Movies like "Forrest Gump," "Titanic" and even "Independence Day" had legs. The latter of those three 90's movies mentioned played to sold out houses for several weeks. "Titanic" was selling out 2 screens at Lawton's Carmike 8 from its December opening clear on into March when it cleaned up at the Oscars. The theater didn't lose print #2 until the middle of April. And it took May "summer movie" releases to push aside print #1.

Even if a movie is just freaking fantastic, an "instant classic" etc., we can forget about the show lasting as long as a recent film like "Titanic," or months and months on end like true blockbusters of decades past.

The press throws around the terms "hit" and "blockbuster" so loosely the terms have no meaning anymore. Ticket price inflation has made the $100 million mark absolutely meaningless. When a forgettable sequel like "Shrek 2" can place at #3 on the all time money makers list, it is a very clear sign the idiots in the entertainment press, exhibitors and most other movie industry people need to finally count numbers of tickets sold. If a movie sells 25 million tickets, that would be a qualified box office hit. If it sells 100 million tickets, I would consider that a true blockbuster.

Posted by Brad Allen (Member # 470) on 05-20-2005, 11:45 PM:

All of the last 3 Star Wars have played in the drive-ins and non-digital houses around here on the break.
Legs...May 31 it will drop like a rock in small town America.

Posted by Lyle Romer (Member # 1266) on 05-20-2005, 11:53 PM:

It'll probably take in $250 million in the first 11 days and then maybe hit $350 million total. Of course, this is what the studios want. They don't want legs becuase they get a higher percentage of the total this way. The studios certainly don't want 2 prints selling out for 8 weeks. They want 16 prints selling out for one week.

If you really want to see the DVD window increased and movies do a lot better, reverse the sharing order. Start at a 50-50 split and give the studios an extra 5% each week until they get to 95%. It'll never happen but it would probably lead to a much healthier industry.

Posted by Monte L Fullmer (Member # 2797) on 05-21-2005, 03:18 AM:

..prob the reason FOX did a 70% for the first few weeks then downwards after that.

(why do theatres have those idiotic 6:20 to 6:55pm start times for some of their showings? Don't they realize that this is "dinnertime" for a bunch of people, and that 7pm is the "ideal" time to begin movies?..if they want to make the money in the gate..)

Posted by Darryl Spicer (Member # 711) on 05-21-2005, 10:59 AM:

Because no one showes up after 10:30 to see the movie and we had to run 4 or more shows of the film for the first two weeks. Pretty much keeping payroll under control. Our 6:20 did sell out our second largest house.

Posted by Mike Spaeth (Member # 524) on 05-21-2005, 01:52 PM:

4 prints - IDEAL showtimes
950 110 430 750 1110
1040 200 520 840 1200
1130 250 610 930
1220 340 700 1020

Spread the shows out ... save payroll by needing fewer staff due to a slower, more constant stream of customers. Instead of 15 minute spacing and having the lobby jammed.

Posted by Dylan Marchetti (Member # 2764) on 05-21-2005, 08:06 PM:

Both of my recent theatres had many multiple print showtimes- but they take different scheduling methods. For NYC, we had mostly walk-up business, so we'd space the shows out evenly so that there was always one in the next 45 minutes or so.

But out in Denver, it was all drive-up, so you pretty much had to plan around the audience. We didn't do well with the 545-645 shows, or the 845-930 shows, so we wouldn't schedule a lot.

Operationally, I FAR prefer the evenly-spaced showings...it's easier on the concession stand, the box staff, and the ushers, and short lines make for better sales.

Posted by Manny Knowles (Member # 1171) on 05-21-2005, 08:48 PM:

A theatre near where I live has showings every half-hour!

No waiting at the concession stand either. Looked like a nice, steady stream of patrons.

Interestingly, this theatre seems to permit "outside food." Numerous people brought in food from the nearby Taco Bell.

Posted by Monte L Fullmer (Member # 2797) on 05-22-2005, 02:01 AM:

quote: Mike Spaeth
Instead of 15 minute spacing and having the lobby jammed.

Yes, Mike-those are excellent showtimes. True, get those spread out so the snakbar can continually make money instead of being jammed all the time and scaring the potiental customers away (unless you "hawk" in your auditoriums..). Definitely gets the 'per-cap' up a few pennies while you can and keep the "house nut" down.

-Monte