This is topic Aloha/ATA/Skywest! Who's next? in forum Film-Yak at Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE.


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Posted by Louis Bornwasser (Member # 3063) on 04-05-2008, 08:09 PM:
 
3 in one week; any more airlines to fail?
 
Posted by Mike Heenan (Member # 392) on 04-05-2008, 08:12 PM:
 
I just returned from Oahu a few weeks ago, but ironically none of those airlines had the cheapest fare, it was United (and if I planned it better, I think American Airlines had a fare $100 cheaper than United), so I wonder how this will effect fares on other airlines to Hawaii?
 
Posted by Tim Reed (Member # 137) on 04-05-2008, 08:25 PM:
 
Fuel prices probably have a great deal to do with it. I'm just guessing.
 
Posted by Joshua Waaland (Member # 287) on 04-05-2008, 09:53 PM:
 
Well yesterday proved the end for Skybus. They were headquartered in Columbus, Ohio. They just opened last year and their gimmick was really cheap flights. They charged extra for baggage, snacks, peak times, etc, etc.

My wife's aunt flew here two days ago with them and she said the plane was brand new and it was the best flight she had ever been on. The flight crew was happy and great too. The same night she arrived was the day they closed up shop and declared bankruptcy. Now she has to fight for her money back and had to book a new flight to get back to Virginia.

My sister-in-law's family would fly up here from Charlotte all the time for family functions. They could fly all four people for like $150! When they opened up just last year I wondered how in the heck they could stay in business with those kind of prices. Now I know they couldn't.
 
Posted by Paul Mayer (Member # 355) on 04-05-2008, 10:31 PM:
 
Fuel price is indeed a factor, but it's not the only thing going in the wrong direction for the airlines these days. Regarding fuel, only two airlines are forecast to make money this year, JetBlue and my former employer Allegiant Air. Fuel prices could double their current levels and Allegiant will still make a profit. Overseas, SAS makes the same claim.

Aloha with its debt load and costs couldn't compete with Mesa's unrealistic low inter-island fares. What's sad is that even though Mesa had these low fares, their load factor was never more than about 25% on the puddle jumpers they fly. Aloha was flying with 85% load factors with their 737s and couldn't break even while being forced to match Mesa's fares. Mesa has never made a profit in the islands but they did manage to run one of the big guys into the ground.

As for ATA, FedEx pulled the rug out from under them in that FedEx terminated their team agreement with ATA to help carry US troops under FedEx's federal CRAF (Civil Reserve Air Fleet) contract. Without that subsidy and cash coming in, ATA couldn't cut it. ATA operated two round trips a day between Hawaii and here and left hundreds of pax stranded here last week after their sudden shutdown.

Haven't heard anything specific about Skywest yet, but all the major carriers including Delta and United (Skywest's major partners) are looking hard at pulling the plug on the cost-pass-through agreements they presently have with their respective regional affiliates. Which means the regionals will now have to start running without any financial assistance (which covered things like fuel price increases) from their former major partners.

Skybus lasted all of 10 months. I kinda wondered about the viability of their business model with Columbus as a hub, especially given their debt load with all those new Airbuseseseseses. As is typical of most new businesses, it looks like they simply weren't capitalized enough to carry them through the initial lossy phase that every new business goes through.

The fallout from the Southwest/United/American/Delta maintenance paperwork debacle continues. Four more airlines are under investigation at this point. Allegiant will have the FAA on their property Monday morning to begin their maintenance audit. I wish Allegiant all the best, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of their planes grounded for a while after this audit.

As for me, not sure I want to try to stay in the airline industry right now, though I have apps in with FedEx, Southwest, and Virgin America. Also have a shot at doing some civilian contractor work for the USAF at the Al Udeid airbase near Doha, Qatar. All aircraft maintenance or engineering related stuff. Was planning to get my pilot credentials off ice later this year, but in this market pilots are suddenly once again a dime a dozen. No need to waste money reviving a useless ATP certificate at this time.

[Edit] Lots of people are guessing Frontier will be the next mainland carrier to go this year.

[ 04-24-2008, 03:42 PM: Message edited by: Paul Mayer ]
 
Posted by Chad M Calpito (Member # 3736) on 04-05-2008, 11:01 PM:
 
I wonder what the prices will be for Hawaiian Air when I fly to my motherland Hawaii First Class. I always choose Hawaiian Air since they fly direct from San Diego to Hawaii.

I'll just have to check when I take my next vacation there.
 
Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 04-06-2008, 12:05 AM:
 
The security nonsense has ruined flying more than fuel prices. I used to kind of enjoy flying, but no more. Airport security never turns up any real trouble, just slows things down, and the terrorists are probably planning something that'll have nothing to do with airplanes anyway. It's just a bunch of feel-good baloney that has ruined an industry.
 
Posted by Chad M Calpito (Member # 3736) on 04-06-2008, 01:15 AM:
 
I, too, can't stand the Security stuff and do agree that it does slow things down. Oh well, I just put up with it when traveling.
 
Posted by Scott Norwood (Member # 30) on 04-06-2008, 06:26 AM:
 
What Mike said. The airline security mess has probably been the best thing to happen to Amtrak's Boston<->NYC train route. The Acela doesn't really save any time or money, but it is much less annoying than flying and passengers arrive downtown in both cities (thus saving a cab fare).
 
Posted by Leo Enticknap (Member # 534) on 04-06-2008, 07:08 AM:
 
Who's next? Alitalia is on the brink: AF/KLM walked away from takeover negotiations when the Italian government (which owns a 51% stake) made it clear that they wouldn't support any takeover which involves job losses. Under European Union competition laws Italian taxpayers can't continue to pump money into Alitalia and run it at a loss, with the result that it's expected that the airline will enter the Italian equivalent of Chapter 11 and be radically downsized.

As for who's next after that: Shitish Airways if there's any justice in this world! If even an airline deserved to fail, it's that shower. As you'll probably have heard, the opening of the new Terminal Five at Heathrow went completely tango uniform: over a week later, they've still got around 20,000 bags yet to be reunited with their owner (the lastest rumour is that they're going to fly them all to Milan for sorting!), and are cancelling around a third of each day's flights. They've had incompetence down to a fine art for about ten years now. Every summer or Christmas there is either a strike, some monumental cock-up or both, and we see the now traditional spectacle on the telly of passengers in a makeshift refugee camp at Heathrow declaring that it'll be a chilly day in Hell before they ever fly BA again.

Northwest are apparently going to start charging $25 to check a second bag on US domestic flights, increasing their fuel surcharge and are scaling back their timetable. Their transatlantic service from Amsterdam is still very good though: I've probably used it 15-20 times in the last five years or so, and there was only ever a serious delay once (in the dying days of the DC-10s, where a maintenance issue caused a three-hour delay leaving Memphis). They were very efficient rebooking the connections and gave us a meal during the wait.
 
Posted by Jim Cassedy (Member # 4115) on 04-06-2008, 11:47 AM:
 
I'm begining to wonder if airlines, like celebreties, "die in 3's"? [Eek!]
 
Posted by Leo Enticknap (Member # 534) on 04-11-2008, 07:01 AM:
 
Looks like fours - Frontier has just filed for bankruptcy.

In other developments, BA has announced that it's postponing the move of its long haul flights into the new Terminal 5 at Heathrow. Looks like they couldn't recruit enough armed guards to put down the riots which would have resulted... [Roll Eyes]
 
Posted by Joshua Waaland (Member # 287) on 04-11-2008, 03:49 PM:
 
Who the heck is going to buy all of these used planes especially now that times are tough?
 
Posted by Paul Mayer (Member # 355) on 04-11-2008, 04:55 PM:
 
A lot of the older technology ones will get parked in the desert again. I think a lot of new ones will too this time around. Leasing companies will buy them up by the boatload - at bargain prices. They'll put 'em in the desert for a few years where they won't cost much to store or preserve. Then when times get good again, they'll bring 'em out, clean 'em up, and lease/sell/fly them again.

Except for the ones that end up being worth more in pieces/parts. Those get broken up for parts, with the leftovers cut up for scrap and recycling.

At Allegiant a lot of ours came from the desert. A typical used MD-81 through -87 in the desert goes for $4-8M ($2M just for the JT8D-219 engines alone). Relatively cheap! We also bought one and broke it up just for the parts.
 
Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 04-11-2008, 09:20 PM:
 
quote: Scott Norwood
The airline security mess has probably been the best thing to happen to Amtrak's Boston<->NYC train route. The Acela doesn't really save any time or money, but it is much less annoying than flying and passengers arrive downtown in both cities (thus saving a cab fare).
High fuel prices and other issues are breathing new life into both passenger rail and freight rail business.

We don't have much at all in the way of passenger rail service in Oklahoma. Just the Heartland Flyer between Dallas and Oklahoma City. Lately there's been word of that route being expanded north to Kansas City. It's not clear how the route would be expanded, either by way of Tulsa or Wichita. I wish Oklahoma had a good regional passenger rail network -something to link Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Norman, Lawton and even Wichita Falls. I'd use it.
 
Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 04-11-2008, 11:27 PM:
 
Frontier just filed for bankruptcy. Supposedly all of their employees and passengers are super happy about it. That's what they said on the news.
 
Posted by Tim Reed (Member # 137) on 04-11-2008, 11:42 PM:
 
I thought Frontier was gone in 1976?
 
Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 04-12-2008, 12:00 AM:
 
**Checks calendar**

Frontier has a major hub in Denver. They have those planes with those stupid animals on them.
 
Posted by Leo Enticknap (Member # 534) on 04-12-2008, 09:16 AM:
 
quote: Paul Mayer
A lot of the older technology ones will get parked in the desert again. I think a lot of new ones will too this time around. Leasing companies will buy them up by the boatload - at bargain prices. They'll put 'em in the desert for a few years where they won't cost much to store or preserve. Then when times get good again, they'll bring 'em out, clean 'em up, and lease/sell/fly them again.
In the desert because of the dry and low humidity environment, thereby minimising corrosion damage to the airframes in long-term storage?

Also, what is this going to do to new aircraft orders? The 737 and A320 series must be Airbus and Boeing's bread and butter product lines, especially while they're shouldering the research, development and rollout costs of the new generation of smaller but long haul (787 and A350) and superjumbo (747-8 and A380) planes. If orders for the narrowbodies drop because good second-hand models are available from the desert, is this likely to become a serious problem for Airbus or Boeing? Or are airlines that can afford to going to buy newer planes anyway, on account of their fuel efficiency?
 
Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 04-12-2008, 11:03 AM:
 
quote: Joe Redifer
Frontier has a major hub in Denver. They have those planes with those stupid animals on them.
Maybe they went broke paying for all that large format digital printing on aircraft grade Controltac vinyl.
 
Posted by Paul Mayer (Member # 355) on 04-12-2008, 09:30 PM:
 
quote: Leo Enticknap
In the desert because of the dry and low humidity environment, thereby minimising corrosion damage to the airframes in long-term storage?
Yes. The desert makes an almost perfect long-term storage environment for aircraft. Phoenix, Tucson, Victorville, Rosamond, Mojave, and Las Vegas all make or have made great places to park pickled planes.

quote: Leo Enticknap
Also, what is this going to do to new aircraft orders?
Having lots of good-quality used airframes available can have an impact on new aircraft sales. That's why both Brand A and Brand B have huge leasing operations as well as sales!

New aircraft will always have the advantage of better fuel burns and possibly better options on things like IFE (In-Flight Entertainment). Used aircraft will be much easier on the corporate wallet for the up-front costs of acquisition and prep for return to service (though up-front costs for new aircraft can be pretty low - both A and B will bend over backwards to work with a client airline - a lot).

[Edit] Brand B is not doing themselves any favor by continuing to delay the 787. They just announced another 6-8 month slip for the first flight (that makes three). Customers with early line positions are lining up for compensation payments. Looks like the decision to develop this many new technologies on one aircraft while simultaneously promising the shortest lead time ever was a bit optimistic.

This next few years will be most "interesting" (in the Chinese proverb sense) for the air transport industry. One of the reasons I left Allegiant is that at my age I need to work in an industry that will be relatively stable and offer at least a prospect of good salaries and career paths. The skills and experience I can offer at this point as either a pilot or maintenance planner or ground/simulator/classroom instructor or technician just never paid well enough for me to stay in the game, even though the game itself has been a lot of fun.

[ 04-13-2008, 11:29 AM: Message edited by: Paul Mayer ]
 
Posted by Leo Enticknap (Member # 534) on 04-13-2008, 03:47 PM:
 
Thanks Paul.

quote: Paul Mayer
Brand B is not doing themselves any favor by continuing to delay the 787. They just announced another 6-8 month slip for the first flight (that makes three). Customers with early line positions are lining up for compensation payments. Looks like the decision to develop this many new technologies on one aircraft while simultaneously promising the shortest lead time ever was a bit optimistic.
From what I understand, exactly the same thing happened with the A380: and even now it's in revenue-earning service, some significant bugs are still being discovered and ironed out. When all's said and done the project was about two years late and A's shareholders ended up taking quite a short-term hit on it, one which they'll only claw back gradually, over many years, as more aircraft are delivered and make the transition from a R & D exercise into a revenue-earning, production line workhorse. Given that the 787 is an equally radically new generation of airliner technology, I guess the same thing will end up happening, and that like A, B have decided that it's better to delay the launch and get it right than launch on schedule and then come unstuck after the event.
 
Posted by Leo Enticknap (Member # 534) on 04-15-2008, 04:51 AM:
 
And next comes Northwest - just been bought by Delta for $3.6bn, according to the radio news this morning.
 
Posted by Paul Mayer (Member # 355) on 04-15-2008, 11:08 AM:
 
Another rumor going around is United and Continental are looking at a merger.

The DL/NW merge is opposed by the NW pilots union and also the ground workers union - both vow to fight this to the end, even if it means bringing down both companies. Seniority means everything to an airline worker, and no one is ever happy when two seniority lists have to be combined. It'll be fun to place bets and watch, but I'm sure glad I'm not going to be directly affected by it.
 
Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 04-15-2008, 03:04 PM:
 
quote: Paul Mayer
Seniority means everything to an airline worker
Sure beats the hell out of aptitude and skill!
 
Posted by Adam Martin (Member # 641) on 04-15-2008, 07:36 PM:
 
Or even altitude over hills.
 
Posted by Dave Macaulay (Member # 813) on 04-15-2008, 08:16 PM:
 
Huge corporations are remarkably incompetent at measuring aptitude and skill, office politics and backstabbing make such measurement impossible. Incompetence is often rewarded as managers avoid confrontation by transferring and promoting troublemakers out.
The airline industry isn't immune, but the flight and maintenance operations are under a lot if internal and external scrutiny so incompetence is not tolerated like it is in the other departments.
For aircrew and maintenance crew people, competence is generally taken for granted as incompetents get weeded out reasonably effctively so seniority is all important. Whether you are close to getting the long haul flights you have been working milk runs for 10 years waiting for, or next in line for a day shift in the hanger after a decade of swing and night shifts... suddenly finding dozens of names ahead of yours when your seniority list is merged with your new partner's is a real boot to the head.
People being unhappy when their career plans are set back indefinitely is hardly surprising. Letting a union put you and your co-workers out of work to protect your seniority in a bankrupt company is pretty damned stupid.
I know a few flight crew people from Air Canada and Canadian Airlines. They still gripe constantly about seniority crap from the merger 9 years ago.
 
Posted by Will Kutler (Member # 770) on 04-15-2008, 10:43 PM:
 
I have been a licensed mechanic since the late 1980's, and eventually went into the USAF due to a bad job economy. My experience includes working on everything from small aircraft to the biggies such as 747's and C-5 Galaxies, and even historic aircraft.

I earned my license thru a highly regarded FAA part 147 school, and took my exams when I was just leaglly old enough to do so.

Anyhow, all this crap regarding poor maintenance and these FAA Inspector whistle-blowers is nothing new. This has been going on for decades. I'll never forget that on the first day of class one of the first things that our Professor warned us about was about being pressured into performing unairworthy maintenance and falsifying records.

Did he ever hit the nail on the head! I could go on for an hour telling about the things I saw and the pressures that I was put under!! I am very greatful for the ethics that my parents and teachers instilled into me, and that I refused to play with peoples lives, and have the ability to withistand the pressures to perform shoddy maintenance.

Let me expalin a few things regarding Airframe and Powerplant Mechanics.

There are 3 ways to earn the license:

1) Thru documented work experience under licensed mechanics following FAA regs.

2) By attending a FAA Part 147 School.

3) Thru military experience.

When one attends a Part 147 school, one learns the detailed ins and outs of what makes an airplane work.

On the other hand, Military experience is no where near in depth...the average military mechanic will have maybe 25% of the knowledge as a person graduating from a Part 147 school. The military is task-orientated based. The task books are written on a jr high school level, and no in-depth understanding is required. Yet the FAA permits military mechanics to test for their examinations. And there are many, many ex-military mechanics in industry!

In the military (USAF), great (prime) emphasis/importance is placed on aircraft on-time take-off/mission reliability statistics. And these numbers can make or break promotions. Furthermore, military mechanics are required to follow the job-task books to the T...and not doing so will result in Courts Martial. However, often times military mechanics are pressured to perform unairworthy maintenance just to get the plane off on time. Not getting that plane off on time (regardless why) will result in a poor annual performance evaluation, which can cost you a promotion. So, it is really a Catch-22 situation. been there...done that several times!

An military mechanics tend to bring this work ethic into the private sector.
 
Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 04-16-2008, 02:11 AM:
 
quote: Dave Macaulay
People being unhappy when their career plans are set back indefinitely is hardly surprising.
Screw seniority... at least seniority which basically forms "lines" and "lists". If you have worked for such and such amount of years and are entitled to such and such a raise, you should get it. You shouldn't have to wait behind someone else, nor should you be ahead of anyone else. That is elitist. So instead of trying to come up with a better solution to the problem, they whine about the symptom instead. I feel absolutely no sympathy for such situations. These people remind me of Pro-Lifers who are against birth control.
 
Posted by System Notices (Member # 2357) on 01-30-2010, 01:13 PM:
 

It has been 654 days since the last post.


 
Posted by Paul Mayer (Member # 355) on 01-30-2010, 01:13 PM:
 
Digging this oldie back up to say today is the last day to hear the callsign "Northwest" used on ATC frequencies. Starting tomorrow the new call is "Delta".

RIP NWA.
 
Posted by Claude S. Ayakawa (Member # 1401) on 01-30-2010, 03:04 PM:
 
Delta has never flown 747 aircrafts before but Northwest had a couple when they merged with Delta. Now that the combined airlines will operate as Delta, will the company continue to use the 747's or phase them out. Delta's primary aircraft for long haul service has been the Boeing 777, 767 and 757.

-Claude
 
Posted by Paul Mayer (Member # 355) on 01-30-2010, 09:35 PM:
 
Don't know where you heard that Claude, but Delta most definitely did fly 747s - five series 100s during the early years of the type, from 1970 to 1977.

It's true the 747 in general is already beginning to disappear from premium routes, and I'm sure Delta will retire the ex-NWA tails soon enough.

Boeing is just now bringing out the new 747-8 stretch series which will no doubt see plenty of use, mostly in freight service for a long time to come. Whether DAL decides to try any of that type remains to be seen.

The 76's are beginning to go away too, to be replaced over time by Airbus 350s and Boeing 787s. The 75's are niche planes that fit their routes very well, but they are out of production and will eventually be replaced too, probably by the later 737s like the -800 and -900 series.

Also, NWA operated several Airbus 330s which DAL has inherited. Will be interesting to see how or if the 330s fit into DAL's operations.
 
Posted by Claude S. Ayakawa (Member # 1401) on 01-31-2010, 06:30 PM:
 
Paul, that is very interesting. I never knew Delta flew 747s. I had a very good friend who was a Delta flight captain and when he reached the mandatory age of retirement, I created a very nice multimedia show for him and presented it at his retirement party at the very plush Halekulani Hotel in Honolulu. He was a 767 captain and Delta was using only the Lockheed L1011 between Hawaii and the West Coast at the time so Akaiko Akana had to commute to Los Angeles from Kona on the big island of Hawaii via HNL at the beginning of his work week for years and fly one of those beautiful planes to all parts of the country. When I was preparing his slide presentation, he flew me to LAX because he wanted me to photograph him in a 767 cockpit and used in the show. He had the LAX-JFK run but from time to time flew a few of Delta's international routes.

I flew on a United 747 200 a lot but my favorite was the 747 400. I flew on a United 747 400 from Chicago to Hong Kong with a stop over in San Francisco. SFO was my destination but wish I could have continued on to that Chinese city.

-Claude
 
Posted by Paul Mayer (Member # 355) on 01-31-2010, 09:42 PM:
 
I admit not many people remember that Delta flew 747s. Same with the DC-10 - Delta flew that type early on but dropped it. The L-1011 was their 3-hole widebody of choice for years until the MD-11. My one and only ride on an MD-11 was with Delta coming back from Tokyo-Narita, NRT to LAX.

HNL-LAX - your friend had quite the commute. I knew a JAL pilot that lived here but was domiciled at HNL. Fortunately he flew only HNL to NRT to HKG and back, so he only had to commute to work three times a month in order to reach his contract flight hours cap for the month. That's the road warrior life I wish I had!
 
Posted by Ian Parfrey (Member # 5122) on 02-01-2010, 12:13 AM:
 
Always had a soft spot for MD aircraft. It's unfortunate they took a hammering with the DC10 problems and I'm not too sure they fully recovered from the fallout.

I still consider the MD90 as the most attractive jet aircraft built- the Lockheed Super Constellation taking the turboprop gong. That thing is stunning in the flesh.

Never forget flying in an MD 90 during a storm and looking along the top of the seats down the aircraft and seeing the flex of the fusilage. Man, she was shimmering. Something I'll never forget.
 
Posted by Bill Gabel (Member # 1105) on 02-02-2010, 04:30 PM:
 
I always liked flying in the L-1011 aircrafts.
If you go to Jetphotos.net, you can pull up many shots of jet liners from around the world

JetPhotos
 
Posted by Paul Mayer (Member # 355) on 02-10-2010, 05:00 PM:
 
The last of NWA's 16 747-400s arrived in Victorville, CA (KVCV) today to be repainted in Delta colors. Turns out after all that Delta will continue to fly the type on Pacific routes for the foreseeable future. Long live the red tails.
 
Posted by Sam Graham (Member # 2889) on 02-11-2010, 08:30 AM:
 
JEEPERS. I had NO idea Northwest was going away. I'd heard nothing about it.

I guess Delta will still use Minneapolis as a hub, so not a lot of bleeding initially...
 




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