Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: Have any guesses about 2008 Oscar Nominations?

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Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 09-13-2008, 10:47 AM:

I sometimes like to guess what will be nominated and see how accurate I am (or how predictable the Academy is). Here's what I have so far:

BEST PICTURE:
No clue yet.

BEST ACTOR:
-Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight (I'm guessing he won't win, though)
-Sean Penn - Milk (The Academy eats this stuff up and it looks like he does a great job)

BEST ACTRESS:
-Keira Knightly - The Duchess (An actress from a period piece must ALWAYS be nominated, it is policy. Won't win)

BEST MAKEUP:
-The team responsible for Robert Downey Jr in Tropic Thunder. Win.

BEST TRAGIC FOREIGN ANIMATED SHORT IN MONO:
-New category.

BEST SONG:
-Ug. You just KNOW that Mama Mia will get something here. Dear god.

Also, I am betting that either "W" and/or "Frost/Nixon" get some kind of courtesy nod, especially if the movies end up slanting left.

What are your guesses?

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 09-13-2008, 02:24 PM:

I think it's still too early to say who will win. After reading a few "fall movie preview" articles, Heath Ledger is the only candidate I feel certain will win in a major category. I'm also pretty sure Ben Burtt will pick up Best Sound and Best Sound Editing Oscars for Wall•E.

Pretty much everything else on my list merely predicts a nomination. Nothing more. Some this Summer's movies will probably win in a few technical categories.

We still have the fall/holiday season movie slate to see how certain movies are received once they're released. Only then will the list of leading contenders seem more certain. There's already a lot of predictions being thrown about on movies that haven't been released yet. But some of those movies may end up being laughable crap that cancels out many predictions. By January, I'm sure some of the predictions on my list will seem pretty silly.

Here's my list of "predictions" (gut-feeling guesses) -something of a work in progress. These predictions are absolutely subject to change:

BEST PICTURE
The Dark Knight (nomination, probably won't win)
Che
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Changeling
Milk

BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight (nomination, probably won't win)
Steven Soderbergh - Che
Clint Eastwood - Changeling
Gus Van Sant - Milk
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST ACTOR
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sean Penn - Milk
Benicio del Toro - Che
Viggo Mortensen - The Road
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon

BEST ACTRESS
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Kristin Scott Thomas - I Loved You So Long
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Meryl Streep - Doubt

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight (Ledger will WIN)
-----honorable mentions-----
Josh Brolin - Milk
James Franco - Milk or Pineapple Express
Robert Downey Jr. - The Soloist

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I don't know enough yet to be able to provide a full list of guesses:
Debra Winger - Rachel Getting Married
Penelope Cruz - Vicki Christina Barcelona

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Dark Knight - Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan, David S. Goyer (story)
Milk - Dustin Lance Black
Che - Peter Buchman, Benjamin A. van der Veen
-----from Che Guevara's Bolivian Diary
Changeling - J. Michael Straczynski
Rachel Getting Married - Jenny Lumet

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frost/Nixon - Peter Morgan, from his play
The Road - Joe Penhall, from the novel by Cormac McCarthy
Doubt - John Patrick Shanley, from his play
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth,
-----based on the F. Scott Fitzgerald short story
Choke - Clark Gregg, from the novel by Chuck Palahniuk

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Wall•E
Coraline
Kung Fu Panda

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
City of Ember
The Dark Knight
Hellboy 2: The Golden Army
Iron Man

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Australia - Mandy Walker
The Dark Knight - Wally Pfister
(maybe a gimmie nomination for the IMAX work?)
Honestly, I really don't know on this category. I have to actually see more of the field of potential nominated movies to get a better idea.

BEST MUSIC SCORE
The Dark Knight - James Newton Howard, Hans Zimmer
Australia - David Hirschfelder
Milk - Danny Elfman (he scored Wanted & Hellboy 2)

BEST SONG
I have no clue on this one.

BEST EDITING
The Dark Knight - Lee Smith
Body of Lies - Pietro Scalia
Wanted - David Brenner
The Quantum of Solace - Matt Chesse, Richard Pearson

BEST SOUND
Wall•E - Ben Burtt, Sound Designer
The Dark Knight - Richard King, Sound Designer
The Quantum of Solace - Martin Cantwell, Sound Designer
Hellboy 2: The Golden Army - Martin Hernandez, Sound Designer
Body of Lies - Karen M. Baker, Supervising Sound Editor

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
Wall•E - Ben Burtt, Supervising Sound Editor
The Dark Knight - Richard King, Supervising Sound Editor
The Quantum of Solace - Eddy Joseph, Supervising Sound Editor
Hellboy 2: The Golden Army - Martin Hernandez, Supervising Sound Editor
Body of Lies - Per Hallberg, Supervising Sound Editor

BEST MAKEUP EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder
Hellboy 2: The Golden Army

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Australia
City of Ember
Coraline
Hellboy 2: The Golden Army

BEST SET DECORATION
Australia
City of Ember
Coraline

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Duchess
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Australia
City of Ember
Hellboy 2: The Golden Army

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Man on a Wire

BEST FOREIGN FILM
???

Posted by Justin Hamaker (Member # 2165) on 09-13-2008, 05:20 PM:

I've only seen two movies so far this year that stand out as serious Oscar contenders: The Dark Knight and Wall•E. And Heath Ledger's Joker is the only stand out acting performance I've seen so far.

Keep in mind that I haven't seen many of the smaller films this year.

Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 09-13-2008, 08:07 PM:

quote: Bobby Henderson
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

BEST SET DECORATION

Isn't that kind of redundant? So is "Best Sound" and "Best Sound Effects Editing". Where the hell is "Best Foley"? Or how about "Best Use of Canned Sound Effects"? Or my personal favorite: "Best ADR".

Posted by John Wilson (Member # 269) on 09-13-2008, 08:17 PM:

quote: Joe Redifer was the last to post

BEST SONG:
-Ug. You just KNOW that Mama Mia will get something here. Dear god.

No, they have to be original songs...so we're safe.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 09-14-2008, 02:53 AM:

quote: Joe Redifer
Isn't that kind of redundant? So is "Best Sound" and "Best Sound Effects Editing".

I understand what you mean, which is why my predictions of nominations are identical in both categories. I merely listed both since technically there really is two different sound categories.

But seriously, there probably should be a best Foley Effects Oscar award. After all, those Foley guys practically have to jump through hoops making all the sound effects things they make happen. Pretty amazing stuff when you really break down what those guys have to do.

Posted by Justin Hamaker (Member # 2165) on 09-14-2008, 06:25 AM:

I think the foley stuff falls under the Sound Editing category.
Academy Rules for Sound Editing

I don't really understand the Sound Mixing award. Academy Rules for Sound Mixing

Posted by Mike Spaeth (Member # 524) on 09-21-2008, 03:29 PM:

Here's what Wesley Lovell: The Oscar Guy has right now (first choice in each category = winner, the others are alphabetical)

Best Picture
Australia
Changeling
Defiance
Milk
The Reader

Best Animated Film
Wall-E
9
Kung Fu Panda

Best Director
Baz Luhrmann - Australia
Clint Eastwood - Changeling
Edward Zwick - Defiance
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Stephen Daldry - The Reader

Best Actor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Hugh Jackman - Australia
Sean Penn - Milk
Viggo Mortensen - The Road
Josh Brolin - W

Best Actress
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Nicole Kidman - Australia
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Carice Van Houten - Valkyrie

Best Supporting Actor
John Malkovich - Changeling
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Liev Schreiber - Defiance
Toby Jones - Frost/Nixon
Emile Hirsch - Milk

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Ryan - Changeling
Amy Adams - Doubt
Viola Davis - Doubt
Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road
Ellen Burstyn - W

Best Original Screenplay
Wall-E
Australia
Changeling
Gran Torino
Milk

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Reader
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
The Road

Best Original Score
Defiance
Australia
Changeling
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road

Best Original Song
"Rock Me Sexy Jesus" - Hamlet 2
"Quantum Of Solace" - Quantum Of Solace

Best Editing
Australia
Changeling
Defiance
The Reader
The Road

Best Cinematography
Australia
Appaloosa
Defiance
The Reader
Revolutionary Road

Best Art Direction
Australia
Che
Defiance
Miracle At St. Anna
The Reader

Best Costume Design
Australia
The Duchess
The Fall
The Other Boleyn Girl
The Reader

Best Makeup
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
The Chronicles Of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Defiance

Best Sound Mixing
Defiance
Australia
Iron Man
Mamma Mia!
The Road

Best Sound Editing
Iron Man
Australia
The Dark Knight
Quantum Of Solace
Wall-E

Best Visual Effects
Speed Racer
Iron Man
Wanted

Best Foreign Language Film
The Flight Of The Red Balloon - France
Crossing - South Korea
Four Minutes - Germany
My Brother Is An Only Child - Italy
Summer Palace - China

Best Documentary Feature
Standard Operating Procedure
Encounters At The End Of The World
Shine A Light
Trumbo
Up The Yangtze

Posted by Tyler Potts (Member # 4952) on 10-02-2008, 10:17 AM:

Last year I really felt for the 1st time the popularity in wins over pure performance. The biggest one that floored me was that Casey Affleck didn't win supporting actor for The Assasination of Jesse James.

BEST PICTURE
(I would love to see this win) The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
But I think because I think it just looks really cool. I've read the short story and don't know if it'll be the best picture.

Bobby, you bring up Che constantly in your idea of nominations. Does it even have a distributor? Is there a release date yet for it? It's gotten buzz somewhere but I haven't heard anything really concrete about a release.

And you'll probably see Guillermo del Toro's name on the list for the next few years for costumes or makeup, looks like he's got a busy schedule of releases in the next few years.

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 10-02-2008, 12:24 PM:

Che (or its other title: Guerrilla) stands a reasonably good chance of snaring lots of Oscar nominations if it is released to any theaters before December 31. That's a big "if." The movie is reportedly over 4 hours long. The final cut may not run that length.

Some are concerned this movie could be some monumental dud. However, Steven Soderbergh has put a hell of a lot of work into the movie and has a history of gaining lots of Oscar nominations. One year he was nominated for Best Director twice (got one for Traffic and the other for Erin Brockovich). Anyway, if he has a project thrown in by year's end, it's bound to attract nominations -unless the movie is just truly awful.

Posted by Mike Schindler (Member # 1309) on 10-02-2008, 01:54 PM:

I think IFC is distributing CHE. I heard that the plan is to release the whole thing in New York and L.A. in December in order to qualify for the Oscars.

Then in January, Part 1 will be released simultaneously in the top 25-35 markets and on pay-per-view.

Part 2 will be released the same way in February after the Oscar nominations are announced.

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 10-03-2008, 09:56 AM:

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say Heath Ledger will get nominated, but will get beat by somebody. The fact that he's dead will get trumped by the fact that he was in a blockbuster. Just a guess.

Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 10-03-2008, 10:43 AM:

Yeah, the Academy likes "important" movies... like MILK. That's why I chose Sean Penn.

Posted by Bill Gabel (Member # 1105) on 10-03-2008, 11:41 AM:

quote: Mike Schindler
I heard that the plan is to release the whole thing in New York and L.A. in December

Variety reports that "Che" will unspool as a two-parter with a 30-minute intermission when it gets released in December.

Posted by Chad Souder (Member # 343) on 10-03-2008, 03:30 PM:

quote: Tyler Potts
Last year I really felt for the 1st time the popularity in wins over pure performance.

Just last year you felt this for the first time? I started to get annoyed after 1999 when Russel Crowe didn't win for Insider (can't argue with Spacey winning for American Beauty), but then, to make up for it, they gave Crowe the win for Gladiator the following year over, among others, Tom Hanks for Cast Away.

The final straw for me was for 2001, when Denzel won for Training Day over Crowe again in Beautiful mind and Sean Penn in I Am Sam and Ewan McGregor wasn't even nominated for Moulin Rouge.

I'm not saying they don't get any right, but it does seem to be quite political.

Posted by Sally Ann Burgess (Member # 4746) on 10-03-2008, 08:14 PM:

The Academy (correct me if I am wrong) seem to have a habit of righting their wrongs. Heath Ledger lost out to Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Best Actor a couple of years back, and I'm sure I'm not the only one who thought he was robbed. If Heath doesn't win Best Supporting Actor, I'm a monkey's uncle. Even if I am a girl.

Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 10-03-2008, 11:50 PM:

Supporting actor? He was the whole show!

Posted by Bobby Henderson (Member # 840) on 10-04-2008, 01:41 AM:

quote: Chad Souder
The final straw for me was for 2001, when Denzel won for Training Day over Crowe again in Beautiful mind and Sean Penn in I Am Sam and Ewan McGregor wasn't even nominated for Moulin Rouge.

Didn't you see Tropic Thunder and listen to the critical lesson explained by award winning actor Kirk Lazarus? Sean Penn didn't get the Oscar because he went "full retard!"

Posted by Anslem Rayburn (Member # 1267) on 10-04-2008, 06:59 AM:

I think Heath Ledger is nominated, and wins, best supporting actor.

The Dark Knight was HIS movie, but he will not be recognized as lead actor. Mr. Ledger made the movie, and I feel it was a Joker movie, but the Academy will not feel the same. Christian Bale, in the "lead" role as the Dark Knight will be viewed as the main character.

I will even say that he (Heath Ledger) will compete against Gary Oldman in the best supporting actor category, and Mr. Oldman will lose. And Mr. Oldman will cheerfully (and maybe tearfully) give it to him, as Gary Oldman will have more opportunities...

Posted by Mike Blakesley (Member # 26) on 10-04-2008, 09:56 AM:

Heath Ledger has the same problem Christopher Reeve had in the 1970s Superman movies. Of course Supe was the main character, but Gene Hackman (Lex Luthor) got top billing in the first two movies. Even Marlon Brando was billed over Reeve.

I might have to amend my prediction. If Ledger is nominated for Best Supporting Actor I think he has a good chance. For best actor, I still think he would lose, however unfairly.

Posted by Chad Souder (Member # 343) on 10-08-2008, 08:29 PM:

quote: Anslem Rayburn
The Dark Knight was HIS movie, but he will not be recognized as lead actor.

I believe (and someone correct me if I'm wrong here) the Academy's stardard of lead is based on screen time, either a percentage or actual minutes. That's why they changed it to "Actor/tress in a leading role" instead of "lead actor/tress" some years ago. Using Training Day as an example, Ethan Hawke was clearly the character the story was based on, but changing the title of the award and the definition of that award allowed them to classify Denzel as leading.

quote: Mike Blakesley
Heath Ledger has the same problem Christopher Reeve had in the 1970s Superman movies. Of course Supe was the main character, but Gene Hackman (Lex Luthor) got top billing in the first two movies. Even Marlon Brando was billed over Reeve.

Those are completely different scenarios. Ledger was an established actor. Of course Reeve got third billing; nobody knew who he was. Hackman and Brando (especially Brando) and Ned Beatty were specifically cast by Richard Donner (likely with studio influence) for their star power because Donner wanted an unknown to play Superman. Superhero movies were dead at the time, so there was great uncertainty about how many people would want to see Superman. Bryan Singer paid tribute to Donner's vision by casting Brandon Routh instead of one of scores of made actors wanting the part, but with much greater confidence in the new movies' attraction, they didn't need the stars to accompany the unknown.

The new Batman franchise, on the other hand, is LOADED with stars. Bale, Caine, Eckhart, Holmes, Oldman, Freeman, Neeson, Wilkenson... not to mention Anthony Michael Hall. Ledger, honestly, was a man among giants who at the very least held his own. I'd rather see Gary Oldman nominated for best supporting. He was fantastic.

Posted by Mike Schindler (Member # 1309) on 10-09-2008, 12:47 AM:

Actually, the decision of whether a performance is a leading role or a supporting role is up to the individual voter. Here's the official rule from the Academy:

quote:

A performance by an actor or actress in any role shall be eligible for nomination either for the leading role or supporting role categories. If, however, all the dialogue has been dubbed by another actor, the performance shall not be eligible for award consideration. Singing that is dubbed will not affect the performer’s eligibility unless it constitutes the entire performance. The determination as to whether a role is a leading or supporting role shall be made individually by members of the branch at the time of balloting.

The leading role and supporting role categories will be tabulated simultaneously. If any performance should receive votes in both categories, the achievement shall be only placed on the ballot in that category in which, during the tabulation process, it first receives the required number of votes to be nominated. In the event that the performance receives the numbers of votes required to be nominated in both categories simultaneously, the achievement shall be placed only on the ballot in that category in which it receives the greater percentage of the total votes.

Of course, the studios push for one or the other so as not to split the vote.

Posted by Martin McCaffery (Member # 37) on 10-09-2008, 09:40 AM:

As it was just on TCM, this reminds me of In The Heat of the Night. Although we remember it as a Sidney Portier movie, Rod Steiger won Best Actor, for which he certianly deserved the nom.

That said, do the Academy Awards really mean anything? I watch for Best Bad Dress, Worst Production Number and Most Embarassing Speech;>

Posted by Chad Souder (Member # 343) on 10-09-2008, 02:49 PM:

quote: Mike Schindler
Actually, the decision of whether a performance is a leading role or a supporting role is up to the individual voter.

Wow, I was way off. Not sure where I heard that. Leaving it up to the individual voter makes no sense, but then neither does the Academy most of the time.

Posted by Sally Ann Burgess (Member # 4746) on 10-10-2008, 11:57 PM:

This fresh off IMDB.....

Rourke + Langella Are Early Oscars Favourites

10 October 2008 10:31 AM, PDT

Frank Langella and Mickey Rourke will wrestle it out for next year's Best Actor Oscar, while Frost/Nixon, Milk and The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button are musts for Best Film nominations, according to Academy Awards experts.

Revered movie awards watchers at GoldDerby.com have teamed up with a panel of top U.S. film critics for the first Oscars prediction list of the year.

The team agrees Harvey Milk biopic Milk and Brad Pitt's new movie Button will compete for the Best Film prize with the movie adaptation of hit play Frost/Nixon, while Rourke and Langella have emerged as the critics' favourites for Best Actor for The Wrestler and Frost/Nixon respectively.
All of the critics' other forecasts are split.
In the Best Picture race, Slumdog Millionaire is also a favourite of the expert panel, while Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire), Cate Blanchett (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Michael Sheen (Frost/Nixon) and Michelle Williams (Wendy and Lucy) all garner at least one vote in respective Best Actor and Best Actress categories.

The Oscar nominations will be announced on 22 January.

Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 10-11-2008, 12:15 AM:

Front/Nixon looks about as exciting as liquefied diarrhea. That means it will probably win Best Picture.

Posted by Bill Gabel (Member # 1105) on 11-13-2008, 04:04 PM:

Well the executive committee of the Academy Music branch has disqualified the score for the film "The Dark Knight". The big issue was the fact that 5 names were listed as composers on the music cue sheet the official studio document issued to the Academy. Fear not their previous collaboration, on "Batman Begins", was similarly disqualified in 2005. Maybe they will get it right the now time around.

Posted by Joe Redifer (Member # 3) on 11-13-2008, 04:48 PM:

Its not like the current Batman movies will be remembered for their score. I can only remember two notes from it... the same two they use again and again.

Posted by Caleb Johnstone-Cowan (Member # 3710) on 11-13-2008, 11:56 PM:

I thought the score for Dark Knight was fantastic. It sat in the background throughout, but rose and fell at the right times. Felt the simplicity worked well, didn't detract from the action set pieces or any of the performances.

I have seen both parts of Che and Benicio Del Toro will get a nomination for sure, might win if the voters are watching it as one four-hour epic. Can't see that the two parts were ever intended to run as one feature, presented in different aspect ratios for a start. Would guess at nominations for cinematography and director as well. Also maybe a technical win for whoever made the 16mm anamorphic lens they used in part one, understand that is a first.

Saw I Loved You So Long on Wednesday, Kristin Scott Thomas might get best actress. Very strong performance backed up by a great narrative that makes you think and question yourself a lot during the film.

Wall-E will win Best Animated Feature.

Another Way To Die (the Bond theme) will get nominated, quality song and they get a good segment for the telecast!

I don't know if The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas has been well received in the US but get the feeling it might get a nod for adapted screenplay, purely because the last 20 minutes or so is so powerful.