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Topic: The end of the reel -- Examining the digitalization of film

Mark Gulbrandsen
Resident Trollmaster

Posts: 16657
From: Music City
Registered: Jun 99

posted 04-12-2008 12:20 PM

Brad... You hit the nail on the head!! Indeed they don't stop to think how much money they burn in the camp fire in order to keep paying shit wages.

There's Steve spreading rumors again... still with no data to back up what he is claiming. T.I. has been pushing that "Home 3-D" thing for almost two years now.

Mark

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Ron Funderburg
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 814
From: Chickasha, Oklahoma, USA
Registered: Nov 2007

posted 04-12-2008 12:42 PM

Yes Mark we have all noticed that a lot of tech's are eager to push their point of view with nothing to back them up.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 04-12-2008 01:17 PM

quote: Mike Blakesley
I saw something on IMDB about the Blu-ray version of the Hannah Montana thing being in 3-D and having 4 pairs of 3-D glasses packed in the box with it. So much for 3-D being something you "can't get at home."

Chances are the "3D" on the Blu-ray version will just be the old anaglyphic type with red and cyan lenses. It won't be full color 3D like you can get in certain movie theaters.

There is no way to implement full color 3D on Blu-ray on any sort of mainstream basis. Such a thing would require specific, specialized monitors and maybe even the use of LCD shutter glasses to work really well. The thing Texas Instruments is promoting would only apply to certain DLP-equipped televisions. I wouldn't work on just any HDTV.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 04-12-2008 01:28 PM

Here's the clip from the imdb.com site: Link

quote:
Disney's home video division said Wednesday that it will include 3-D glasses with each Blu-ray disc of Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour, but it gave few details about the first 3-D release in the high-definition format. Although it said that four pairs of glasses would be included in the package, it did not indicate what sort of glasses these would be. (Some writers have suggested that they would resemble the primitive red/green glasses of the '50s that many folks complained gave them headaches.) Neither was there any indication whether the glasses would add to the wholesale price of the disks or how much it would cost to buy additional pairs.

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Darryl Spicer
Film God

Posts: 3250
From: Lexington, KY, USA
Registered: Dec 2000

posted 04-12-2008 02:12 PM

quote: Mark Gulbrandsen
I can't begin to tell you how many training sessions I have conducted only to find a completely new crew on my next visit a couple of months later. The problem is the pay scale not the lack of training.

Mark

Couldn't agree with you more on that one. That's one reason why I never jumped on the trainer jobs when they offered them up. Even at the theatres I worked at I had trouble keeping them around. Train them two months or less later they were gone.

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Steve Guttag
We forgot the crackers Gromit!!!

Posts: 12814
From: Annapolis, MD
Registered: Dec 1999

posted 04-12-2008 07:09 PM

Oooops Mark...sorry...you wanted some data eh?

There are loads out there...I guess you don't want to look at it but here is one:

quote:
Although TI never reveals sales figures for its digital light processor chips, public disclosures show the size of the problem. DLP revenue fell 21 percent from the third quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2007.

The entire decline stems from a single limitation of the 21-year-old invention: DLP is a projection technology, requiring space between chips and screens, so it won't work in the wafer-thin TVs that most Americans want.

The rest of article can be found here: http://www.contentagenda.com/articleXml/LN744464425.html?industryid=45197

There are others but the over 20% decline in DLP sales for the last calander year are pretty uniform. I've seen some articles that predict (admittedly speculation) that DLP sales will be down another 40% this year.

You are sticking your head in the sand to not even notice the ramifications of such a sales decline in a division. If Kodak saw those sort of sales drops in Motion Picture film sales, everyone would be using the "writing on the wall" expressions.

The fact that DLP is perceived as a cutting edge technology is what seems to have people hung up on the concept that it might have run its course. Also the fact that no other display technology (digital) seems to have what it has to offer at this time for some industries.

I don't know where you get your information from, Mark but it is certainly suspect as you probably are talking to people (if you are talking at all) that, just maybe, have a vested interest in the longevity of DLP...which is why you CAN'T trust TI for accurate information (nor those that have a financial stake at its success, like projector manufacturers) since they HAVE to put the BEST SPIN on the situation or just close up shop and admit defeat and lose sales immediately.

A quick search on my brother, Karl, would also give you some idea on the insights I might be able to gather on this sort of subject matter. But go ahead, spout your ingnorance.

Ron got this one right...the consumer market is what is driving DLP and that is the marking that is shrinking fast...not cinema, which is growing (at a near immeasurable rate). The only part of the consumer market that DLP is hanging onto is the over 50" to 60" groups. However...lesser cost (and argueably lesser quality) technologies like LCD keep taking market share away.

So what are you going to do IF DLP dies? Tell your customers to go back to those red readers you promoted (that you are now tell them to rip out...that was a great 5 or 10 year investment...that saved how much of the planet?)...oh wait, that is the anticipated life span of DCinema equipment you are promoting...hmmmm and the film projectors you like seem to need to need an upgrade kit every 5-10 years. Perhaps you just have accepted rebuying things every 5-10 years. At least you are consistant, I guess [uhoh]

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Hillary Charles
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 748
From: York, PA, USA
Registered: Feb 2001

posted 04-12-2008 07:54 PM

quote: Bobby Henderson
Chances are the "3D" on the Blu-ray version will just be the old anaglyphic type with red and cyan lenses. It won't be full color 3D like you can get in certain movie theaters.

You should check out the SENSIO 3-D site to see what's coming.

Sensio is a full-color 3-D system for home theaters. If it catches on, that's one advantage the theaters will lose.

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Ron Funderburg
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 814
From: Chickasha, Oklahoma, USA
Registered: Nov 2007

posted 04-12-2008 08:09 PM

Steve haven't you noticed that Mark is using the writing is on the wall? In several post here he says film is done in two years. I agree film is on the way out but again I don't know that anyone can predict when that end will be.

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Steve Guttag
We forgot the crackers Gromit!!!

Posts: 12814
From: Annapolis, MD
Registered: Dec 1999

posted 04-12-2008 09:28 PM

While film's global dominance in traditional markets has certainly erroded, there is no indication that it is on the way out for other markets. For archiving, it remains the only archival medium for motion picture...period...at least that is what the National Archives and the Library of Congress uses for the US stuff and it seems that Hollywood also uses film as the archival medium for even their born-digital features.

For theatres...it is pure speculation as to how long film has left. One thing I contend though is how long DLP has left too. Unlike film, which has several sources, still and could be made by others. DLP is a single source medium...ALWAYS a very risky state to bank on...especially in the semiconductor industry. How many products have met their end simply because the sole source of a piece of technology is no longer available. However, unlike say TTL technology that can be easily and quickly reproduced by other semiconductor manufacturers, DLP remains a difficult and low-yield technology that is very expensive to make...it takes a giant like TI to make it...which will make any other company's chance of making a go with it very small.

So if film is on the way out for exhibition...just what is going to replace it and whom are we to be beholden to for that?

My personal opinion is that the digital solution will not take the form of projection but more of the form of a screen that is its own light source like OLED. If Drive-Ins could switch to the technology that is used for bill-boards and sporting type videoboards, they would no longer have to compete with the SUN for when to operate their theatres. Those devices can be bright, even during the day time.

Steve

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 04-13-2008 01:23 AM

quote:
You should check out the SENSIO 3-D site to see what's coming.

Sensio is a full-color 3-D system for home theaters. If it catches on, that's one advantage tYou should check out the SENSIO 3-D site to see what's coming.

Well.

I visited that web site.

I saw NOTHING to describe just what it was that made their system so special. I saw nothing at all to suggest they would make it possible to deliver full color 3D movies to most types of HDTV monitors with little or no modification at all. The whole site merely sounded like a lot of blustering while delivering no specific details about their system.

I stand 100% by my prediction: be prepared to enjoy all the goodness of red and cyan lensed paper 3D glasses when opening that Hannah Montana 3D Blu-ray disc.

Full color 3D for home theater is NOT happening anytime soon at all. I have seen a lot, but nothing to suggest that full color 3D is on the horizon at all for home theater.

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Darryl Spicer
Film God

Posts: 3250
From: Lexington, KY, USA
Registered: Dec 2000

posted 04-13-2008 01:50 AM

I found this info on that site. Looks like it is just projector based.

Sensiotm 3D

The first product derived from SENSIO®’s 6 years of research and development efforts is based on the SENSIO® 3D technology, a revolutionary digital video process allowing the broadcast and storage of stereoscopic (3D) movies for home viewing. The SENSIO® 3D processor transforms the conventional home theatre experience into a rich and immersive stereoscopic movie experience, which rivals with the best 3D movie theater and theme park experiences.

With our advanced registered technology real 3D movies at home is now reality. The SENSIO® 3D video processor is the only 3D home theatre system designed to work with conventional DVD players and CRT, LCD, DLP and D-ILA projectors. It is the only system that is MPEG-2 compliant, offering full-screen high resolution and full color 3D format, compatible with future distribution channels such as pay per view, video on demand, DTV and HDTV broadcast. The processor is a high-performance product that combines brilliant DVD image quality and perfectly calibrated 3D richness.

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Mark Gulbrandsen
Resident Trollmaster

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From: Music City
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posted 04-13-2008 07:21 AM

Ron... Show me where I say film will be done in two years...

Steve... the article doesn't tell me anything I didn't already know. It does however make an important point to others here and that is too much time and effort is being wasted on the consumer end of marketing it. T.I.'s markleting people should have had the forsight to see what was comming in the flat panel realm but for what ever reason they were blind to that... Doesn't matter, they will now be forced to become even more creative in the use of the chips and that creativness is what will actually make it really shine. As for your bother... if he can provide us with some hard data then fine... please have him do so but I doubt that the is privy to it.

While I have no argument that the consumer end of DLP may come to an end some day and I could really care less about that end of things and you still have not presented any data to show that the industrial end of the DLP will ever cease any time soon. How about taking a look at T.I.'s annual report... isn't it on line? Strong's is on line and last I looked it wasn't exactly making them look Strong. More like squeaking by. But no matter what happens at Strong I suppose they will still be making stop lights and chicken cookers, perhaps they can supply a star or cam to those of us still repairing those few "special purpose" film projectors in ten years time.

Other manufacturers have also gotten stuck in the consumer rut in past years and decades.... Motorola probably being the best example with it's old Quassar TV line AND it's present really sucky Cell Phone Line up. That TV line and the plants were sold off to Matsushita and some of the locations still exist and produce Panasonic Televisions today... Motorola hasn't given up on the Cell Phones either in spite of worse off sales than DLP presents itself to be in. They keep opening up the creative doors and re-vamping the line... it still sucks for the most part but don't expect an American manufacturer like Motorola or T.I. to throw in the towel just that easy. So all I can say is that I'll believe it when T.I. announces it. None of your speculation is changing the way the big three are approaching the conversion nor is it going to. When those three have converted their largest share of the U.S. theater market over to digital those few required film prints are going to become very expensive to produce... so expensive that if a theater location is marginal or not profitable then they may be denied a print or that location may have to pay for it. It is this point in time which I have always been predicting is about 5 to 7 years away and that will be the end of large scale film dstribution as we all know it. Just ask anyone in the marketing departments of Kodak... They seem to have a marketing department that has the forsight to gear Kodak towards survival instead of departure. Kodak will indeed be and may already be producing more digital imaging stuff at this point in time than they are film. If that point hasn't been reached yet its not that far off.

quote: Steve Guttag
My personal opinion is that the digital solution will not take the form of projection but more of the form of a screen that is its own light source like OLED. If

I agree but not in either of our lifetimes will we get to see that on a large scale... although I'll further your comment by saying that probably in our lifetimes projectors will be laser based and Xenon will become extinct because of its high power consumption... that high power consumption in say 20 years will be totally unaceptable in a modern "Green" Society. The reson we won't be seeing the large screen flat displays in use on our lifetime for film theaters is because the studios are too deep into DLP and other projection technology and laser could actually fit right in with present DCI. IN reality for flat panels to happen it would take the studios the next 20 years just to accept it, then 10 more years to get it implemented so no one could hook on and record the signals, then another 10 to get it installed at all locations along with the normal dose of studio approved anti-pirating encryption security stuff.

Mark

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Hillary Charles
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 748
From: York, PA, USA
Registered: Feb 2001

posted 04-13-2008 08:19 AM

quote: Bobby Henderson
Full color 3D for home theater is NOT happening anytime soon at all. I have seen a lot, but nothing to suggest that full color 3D is on the horizon at all for home theater.

Bobby,

I will agree that the Hannah Montana disc will most likely be anaglyph (however considering the content, the Pulfrich or Chromadepth method could work reasonably well), but I know people who have the Sensio setup and it is everything you say it can't be. IT IS!

These folks were big field-sequential 3D fans until Sensio came out, and they say it blows the old bootleg FS 3D out of the water.

Please check out this link. From the posted frame-grabs, you'll see the Sensio image is similar to side-by-side Stereovision (not sure how it's projected though). It also appears that for those slumming it, an anaglyph version is also encoded.

Now granted, like Darryl suggested, I don't believe it to be a system to play on a normal plasma or LCD screen, but the point is that despite your misgivings, here is a full-color 3D format that is INDEED being marketed for the home theater. And it's not just on the horizon, but ALREADY HERE, and people ARE using it.

EDIT: Apparently the Sensio system is becoming even more prevalent in the home market, according to this announcement:

"MONTREAL, Quebec, January 22, 2008 – SENSIO Technologies Inc. (“SENSIO”) (TSX Venture Exchange Inc.: SIO) once again distinguished itself at the 2008 Consumer Electronic Show (CES), where 3D enjoyed a much greater presence than usual with, among other things, the unveiling of different 3D televisions by various manufacturers. This being said, manufacturer interest for the SENSIO 3D technology is greater than ever. “Our SENSIO 3D presentation on a Blu-Ray player and a Mitsubishi 3D television clearly showed the quality and simplicity of the SENSIO 3D technology and attracted strong interest. But the highlight was unquestionably the unveiling of SpectronIQ’s 3D television, which integrates the SENSIO 3D technology, a first fully-integrated solution for consumers”, explains Nicholas Routhier, President and CEO."

[ 04-13-2008, 03:31 PM: Message edited by: Hillary Charles ]

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Tim Reed
Better Projection Pays

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From: Northampton, PA
Registered: Sep 1999

posted 04-13-2008 10:19 AM

quote: Mark Gulbrandsen
the studios are too deep into DLP

The studios are deep into the FILMLESS concept. Whether it's via DLP or a self-illuminated screen is irrelevant. There's no reason a screen couldn't be fed the same signal from a server that a DLP projector is fed now. It would be up to the manufacturer of the screen to translate that - not the studios.

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Mark Gulbrandsen
Resident Trollmaster

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From: Music City
Registered: Jun 99

posted 04-13-2008 12:41 PM

Tim... the server of course would be universal thats a given thing. How a server decodes, encrypts or decrypts and so on is merely a fuinction of add on boards and software. However... Number one... the technology just doesn't exist at the moment to do it with really large screens... And Number two... the Studios would have to accept it which will in itself take a very long time. Number three... the screen itself would have to be DCI compliant in and of itself. All in all it wouild take well into our kids lifetimes to see this happen. Laser based projectors will indeed come first and are far more adaptable to even the current JPEG 20000 standard.

Mark

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