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Topic: Bad Movies not the only cause for box office decline

Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 08-17-2005 03:16 AM

They'll only eliminate the release window once. When the idea flops, things'll go back to normal. The same thing happened when a movie called "Pirates of Penzance" opened in theatres and on cable TV at the same time. It was expected to be a huge hit until that announcement was made. Theatres refused to book it, and it went straight into the toilet. Result: It never happened again, at least not with a major studio movie.

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Jonathan M. Crist
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 531
From: Hershey, PA, USA
Registered: Apr 2000

posted 08-17-2005 08:25 AM

I caught the tail end of an interview last week on TV. I think it was Entertainment Tonight (or one of those similar type shows).

Not sure if it was Iger or someone else speaking but the person said the goal is to shrink the video window down to three (3) weeks so the studios doesn't have to "remarket" the film for video release later on.

Mike B - remember that "Pirates of Pennzance" was essentially a filmed stage production of the then broadway revival of the operetta. The reason for its simultaneous theatrical/video release in 1983 was that the movie was basically considered theatrically unreleasable anyway. Sure a bunch of theatres got on the bandwagon and said they would not play it because of the simultaneous release but they probably would not have played it anyway. I would not read too much into the fact that POP did not do any business.

And if George Lucas says the next star wars (you dont really think he's going to stop do you?) will be a simultaneous video and theatrical release does that mean you will not play it?

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Darryl Spicer
Film God

Posts: 3250
From: Lexington, KY, USA
Registered: Dec 2000

posted 08-17-2005 09:25 AM

quote:
And if George Lucas says the next star wars (you don't really think he's going to stop do you?) will be a simultaneous video and theatrical release does that mean you will not play it?

That pretty much won't happen because Lucas doesn't like the small screen.

Exhibitors have already expressed their concern about the windows by refusing to play any of those soderberg (? spelling) movies that are being planed for simultaneous release to video and theatres.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 08-17-2005 12:34 PM

quote: Jonathan M. Crist
a bunch of theatres got on the bandwagon and said they would not play it because of the simultaneous release but they probably would not have played it anyway

If it had done business, they would have played it. The point was that the film co destroyed the playability of the movie by compromising the theatrical market.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 08-18-2005 12:56 AM

Why should a movie theater book a show that opens simultaneously on video? Why waste the screen on it?

I'm pretty sure 99% of viewers will go straight to the video store and save a ton of money by renting the show. One can bring up the audience factor, participatory thing or whatever. But economics rule. Most people do enjoy watching a movie in a real movie theater, but I think very few are going to pay the premium to do that if the DVD is already available.

I keep bringing up the family of four equation, which easily boosts an outing to a movie theater beyond the $50 mark. Let's put it in the perspective of taking your spouse or steady to the show. Two tickets and refreshments can cost upwards of $30. That's enough to rent the movie once on DVD and then buy a copy of the show at full MSRP.

Considering some of the other things happening in the economy (out of control cost increases on health care, housing, education, gasoline), rising interest rates, people running out of equity to borrow against --the cost cutting thing is going to become a big priority.

I think the elimination of release windows will effectively finish those types of movies from playing in commercial theaters completely. The only thing left would be specialty theaters -those that show art films, revivals, large format shows or even motion simulator rides.

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Darryl Spicer
Film God

Posts: 3250
From: Lexington, KY, USA
Registered: Dec 2000

posted 08-18-2005 10:10 AM

wouldn't surprise me if two things happened in the no window scenario. 1, Video stores not allowed to rent the movies while in theatres. 2, only full MSRP can be applied to the disc while in theatres and this price could be even higher than the normal prices you see now.

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Jack Ondracek
Film God

Posts: 2348
From: Port Orchard, WA, USA
Registered: Oct 2002

posted 08-18-2005 11:16 AM

quote:
And if George Lucas says the next star wars... will be a simultaneous video and theatrical release does that mean you will not play it?

Well, that depends on whether you really take him seriously.

Didn't he suggest that he might release... what was it... #2 in digital... take it or leave it? What happened to that? And... after all the puritanical talk about releasing his product only in the finest theatres, capable of reproducing the most detailed nuances of his sound tracks, SW3 was rushed to just about any theatre with an available screen... including the terrible unwashed... drive-ins... some of them still running with 4" speakers or AM radio.

With the release of #3, many of the main SW characters appeared on TV commercials... a last "Hail Mary" effort to squeeze the last drop from this turnip.

Regal has stated that they won't play anything that's available in a video store. So... does anyone here think that Lucas would actually put his credibility (perceived or otherwise) on the line by doing a simultaneous release with a serious powerhouse picture?

On the subject of the moviegoing public and their TV-based determinations:

As with Mr. Wolfe, we have a venue that doesn't closely compare with the standard 4-wall box with speakers and a screen. It's very common for people to drive miles to our place and arrive at our boxoffice with no idea what they're going to watch. They're here for the experience. The movie title is (almost) secondary. Does that happen often at traditional theatre these days?

We all have kitchens in our house... and a lot of us use them... but that doesn't mean we're all going to eat at home every day. Coincidentally, if the chains build 16 screen theatres next to every Starbuck's on the planet, people aren't necessarily going to go to the movies more often.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 08-18-2005 02:03 PM

Hollywood studios can bank on the perceived attraction commercial theaters have to offer at their peril. Some people (such as myself) do appreciate a really nice theater with great presentation quality and decor. Most people will simply drive to whatever dump is closest to see the show. And if they want to see a new release that appears on DVD and in theaters at the same time, they're going to go buy or rent the DVD. When that happens the movie theaters are going to have to rely on picky, die-hard movie theater fans to survive. And there's just not anywhere near enough of us for most theaters to make it.

I can see some theaters in really gigantic cities managing to survive if release windows are eliminated. There may be enough of the faithful out there to make that happen. But in most areas of the nation you'll see theaters close very quickly.

quote: Darryl Spicer
wouldn't surprise me if two things happened in the no window scenario. 1, Video stores not allowed to rent the movies while in theatres. 2, only full MSRP can be applied to the disc while in theatres and this price could be even higher than the normal prices you see now.

While such an approach makes sense, I'm not sure it would be very practical. I think the "cat is out of the bag" on how low DVDs are priced currently. If studios ban rentals and force a kind of MAP (minimum advertised price) model, a lot of folks will be more than happy to wait for prices to drop -or wait for the "real" version of the DVD to show up on store shelves. DVDs have lots of downward pressure on their pricing. Just visit any Wal-Mart and you'll find a good number of "catalog" titles under $10 and somewhat recent releases under $15.

I liked "Sin City" quite a bit. But I'm not buying that bare bones DVD that appeared on store shelves Tuesday. I'll get it whenever the "SE" appears.

With those factors in mind, I'm not sure if restricting rentals and charging $30 for bare bones DVDs will fly. The Hollywood suits aren't going to rake in that short term money very fast doing that.

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Michael Coate
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1904
From: Los Angeles, California
Registered: Feb 2001

posted 08-18-2005 04:12 PM

This was sent to me today. Unfortunately, the source was not provided.

quote:
The Real "Story": It's the Movies!

No Seismic Shift in Consumer Preferences Compels Unwise Simultaneous Release - National Association of Theatre Owners President John Fithian Responds to Disney Chairman Robert Iger on the Alleged Demand for Simultaneous Release

National Association of Theatre Owners (NATO) President, John Fithian, issued the following statement in response to comments by Walt Disney Chairman Robert Iger during a conference call with Wall Street analysts last Tuesday, August 9.

"Walt Disney's Robert Iger says American consumers demand it all and demand it now. To placate this instant-everywhere appetite, Iger suggests it may be necessary to release movies in theatres, on DVDs, and everywhere, at the same time.

"Mr. Iger knows better than to tell consumers or Wall Street analysts that they can have it all, everywhere, at the same time. He knows there would be no viable movie theatre industry in that new world at least not a theatre industry devoted to the entertainment products of Hollywood. And he should know that Hollywood studios would be merely one shriveled vendor among many in that new world of movies-as-commodities-only.

"Iger considers the slowdown in theatre box office and DVD growth a 'wake-up call' for the industry. I'm not sure who was asleep, but it wasn't the exhibition industry. Here's what we know about 2005 the movies are not as good. They're not terrible. They¹re just not as good. And so the industry has experienced a temporary drop-off compared to 2004 the biggest box office year in movie history.

"Further, factor out last year's big grossing specialty surprises 'Passion of the Christ' and 'Fahrenheit 911' and add in the fact that there are fewer wide general releases this year, and the alleged industry 'slump' disappears.

"Just to reinforce the point that our industry cycles are driven by movie quality, it is interesting to note that DVD slow-down has roughly tracked the theatrical window. That is, movies that have done poorly at the box office have tended to fare poorly when released on DVD.

"On the other hand, DVDs that sell well benefit enormously from the advertising platform and national conversation generated by theatrical release. Does it really make good business sense to plunder that $25-billion-plus worldwide theatrical window without a very solid assurance that even more DVD sales will make up for the lost theatrical revenues? And if you answer that question based on number-crunching in your home entertainment division, are you really willing to bet the farm on the proposition that consumers will rush to watch even more movies at home after you've whacked the advertising platform of theatrical release? And have your number-crunchers accounted for the possibility that consumers have basically bought their DVD libraries, and will hereafter be increasingly conservative about their purchases?

"It's a product-driven industry. When the movies are really good, the industry does really well. And vice versa. New gizmos and conveniences regularly influence consumer patterns but there is no seismic shift in the simple fact that good movies make people want to go see movies. Consumers are smart that way. Analysts can get that."

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Joseph L. Kleiman
Master Film Handler

Posts: 380
From: Sacramento, CA
Registered: Apr 2005

posted 08-18-2005 04:29 PM

Michael's posting is a press release sent out by NATO. One thing to keep in mind is that Bob Iger spent 25 years at ABC before entering the studio environment (he was with ABC from 1974 to 1999 and became President of Disney after they bought ABC in 2000), so coming from television, he has a different outlook than someone who spent their career in the studio or exhibition industries.

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Brad Allen
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 688
From: Evansville, IN, USA
Registered: May 2000

posted 08-18-2005 04:36 PM

All the above may be well and good, but I believe that the film co's have been quietly training John Q Public to wait for the DVD release for several years....and it is partly working. It shows in the legs of films.
HDTV is going to make it even more viable for shorter release windows. My 60" HDTV and home sound system makes for a much better presentation than any of the local mega plex's.
My 2 cents.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 08-18-2005 07:15 PM

quote: Bobby Henderson
If studios ban rentals and force a kind of MAP (minimum advertised price) model, a lot of folks will be more than happy to wait for prices to drop -or wait for the "real" version of the DVD to show up on store shelves.

Uhh, isn't the whole thinking behind the non-window scenario based on eliminating the waiting?

Seriously, that whole thing would never work. Studios would not be able to tell the vid stores what to do, and even if they could, piracy would run rampant as the "high priced" version hit the internet in the first five minutes after it went on sale.

These greedy Hollywood suit idiots are going to ruin the whole entertainment industry if they don't wise up.

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John Hawkinson
Film God

Posts: 2273
From: Cambridge, MA, USA
Registered: Feb 2002

posted 08-18-2005 08:27 PM

It's the first link on www.natoonline.org.

--jhawk

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Lyle Romer
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1400
From: Davie, FL, USA
Registered: May 2002

posted 08-24-2005 11:06 PM

Acknowlegement that it may be the movies after all

quote:
WHY THE SLUMP?
Wednesday, August 24 2005
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The summer movie season, which officially ends on Labor Day, Sept. 5, is expected to produce box-office results 9 percent below those of 2004 and attendance figures 11.5 percent below, according to box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations. In separate interviews with today's (Wednesday) New York Times studio executives generally acknowledged that the downturn could be attributed to unexceptional and unexciting films. New Line Cinema Chairman Robert Shaye, whose studio produced Wedding Crashers, one of the summer's few blockbuster hits, told the Times that in previous years, "you could still count on enough people to come whether you failed at entertaining them or not, out of habit, or boredom, or a desire to get out of the house. You had a little bit of backstop." Universal Vice Chairman Marc Shmuger remarked similarly that "there's a cumulative wearing down effect. We're beginning to witness the results of that. People are just beginning to wake up that what used to pass as summer excitement isn't that exciting, or that entertaining." Michael Lynton, chairman of Sony Pictures Entertainment, vowed that from now on, his studio will be making "only movies we hope will be really good." But Tim Rothman, co-chairman of 20th Century Fox, disagreed with his peers. ""Everybody keeps saying it's the worst of times; it seems fine to me," he said.

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Joseph L. Kleiman
Master Film Handler

Posts: 380
From: Sacramento, CA
Registered: Apr 2005

posted 08-31-2005 03:30 PM

Bob Iger strikes again - looks like he's found an outlet for reducing the window - just not in North America. Fresh off Reuters:

quote:
Disney in set-top box venture

ZURICH -- Switzerland's Kudelski and the Walt Disney Co. have set up a joint venture to develop and market a video-on-demand system for digital television operators worldwide, the firms said Wednesday. The security software group and Disney subsidiary Walt Disney Television International said the set-top box system would offer a selection of movie and other television content delivered to its hard drive, as well as the capacity for subscribers to record personal content from existing channels. The system is designed to run on satellite, cable, terrestrial and IP digital video recorder hardware platforms, the companies said. The system will not be available in the United States, Canada and Japan. (Reuters)

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