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» Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE   » Operations   » Ground Level   » Indiana Jones; Let's predict the first weekend gross (Page 2)

 
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Author Topic: Indiana Jones; Let's predict the first weekend gross
Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
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 - posted 05-19-2008 10:15 PM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Roger Moore of the Orlando Sentinel gives the movie four stars out of five.

Read the review

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John Wilson
Film God

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From: Sydney, Australia.
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 - posted 05-19-2008 10:25 PM      Profile for John Wilson   Email John Wilson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I stopped reading it about 1/3 of the way through...he was telling me too much of the story.

Here's a story on how the story got to be this story.
------------------------------------------------------
Link
RAIDERS OF THE LOST STORY ARC
By REED TUCKER

May 18, 2008 --

Hollywood's best dreamed up dozens of new plots for Indy. Few survived in 'The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull'

LIKE Harrison Ford, you could grow old waiting for the next "Indiana Jones." The last time an installment of the franchise was in theaters, a guy with a mullet named Richard Marx ruled the charts, George W. Bush was merely ruining the Texas Rangers and the only place to see Lindsay Lohan naked was on the diaper-changing table. Now, 19 years after the whip-cracking adventurer literally rode off into the sunset in the last frame of "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" - two decades filled with false starts, teases and a rainforest's worth of scrapped scripts - "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" finally arrives Thursday. For long-suffering fans, it'll be like spotting a Yeti.

But the movie is very real, and today audiences at the Cannes Film Festival are getting a first look. Can it possibly live up to the expectations set by the first three movies? Writer-producer George Lucas doesn't think so.

"I know the critics are going to hate it. They already hate it. So there's nothing we can do about that," Lucas told Vanity Fair. "The fans are all upset. They're always going to be upset. They write their own movie, and then, if you don't do their movie, they get upset about it."

The reason it's taken so long to get Indy back on-screen is that three Hollywood heavyweights - Lucas, Ford and director Steven Spielberg - have had a devil of a time agreeing on a story and script, despite stabs by some of the biggest names in Hollywood. This graveyard is littered with more bones than that cave at the beginning of "Raiders of the Lost Ark."

From spaceships to magic peaches, ideas came and went. But nothing gained traction until David Koepp pennned a script based on a story by Lucas and Jeff Nathanson. The action begins in 1957 and has Indy, former flame Marion Ravenwood (Karen Allen) and young sidekick Mutt (Shia LaBeouf) racing to beat Russian agents to a mystical artifact.

Sounds promising. But what about those other ideas? Let's take a look at what almost was with Indiana Jones IV.

INDIANA JONES AND THE

MONKEY KING

In the mid-1980s, Chris Columbus (writer of "The Goonies" and director of the first two "Harry Potter" films) wrote a script - alternatively called "Indiana Jones and the Garden of Life" - that had Indy searching Africa for the garden of a legendary Chinese monkey king, in which immortality-granting peaches grew. The script was reportedly later reconsidered for Indy 4. A purported draft leaked online, dated 1995, contains sequences bordering on the ridiculous, including one in which Jones chases a tank while riding a rhino, and another in which a pygmy army is assembled to battle Nazis.

The script was abandoned. "It was upbeat and full of the same nostalgia that we tapped into in 'Raiders of the Lost Ark,' so in that sense Chris was right on the money," Spielberg told theraider.net. "But I don't think any of us wanted to go to Africa for four months and try to get Indy to ride a rhinoceros in a multi-vehicular chase."

INDIANA JONES AND THE SAUCER MEN FROM MARS

In 1993, while working on an episode of TV's "The Young Indiana Jones Chronicles," Lucas hit upon a notion for the fourth movie.

"What it is that made it perfect was the fact that Harrison would be 20 years older," Lucas told Vanity Fair. "So that put it in the mid-'50s. So instead of doing a '30s Republic serial [like the first three films], we're doing a B science-fiction movie from the '50s. The ones I'm talking about are, like, 'The Creature From the Black Lagoon,' 'The Blob,' 'The Thing.' "

Both Spielberg and Ford were lukewarm on the direction, but Lucas insisted it was either his idea or nothing. He hired writer Jeb Stuart ("Die Hard") to begin working on a story.

"I wanted to be a part of that legacy, and I went out and saw George at Skywalker Ranch, and we hammered out the story," Stuart tells The Post. "He had a pretty good idea, but not a whole lot of details. We spent two weeks together, and then we went around the country trying to pitch it to Steve in Long Island, then out to Wyoming and pitched to Harrison."

The story involved aliens, a trip to Area 51, and, in a big shocker, Indy getting hitched to a fellow archaeologist. Stuart, though, is mum on the title, which was rumored to have been "Indiana Jones and the Saucer Men from Mars."

Even after multiple rewrites, this script, too, was ultimately rejected. Ford reportedly said, "No way am I being in a Steve Spielberg movie like that." Stuart blames himself. "I just don't think I nailed it," he says. "It was one of the best pieces I ever did, but that doesn't mean anything. Look, between Steven and Harrison and George, there are a lot of 900-pound gorillas, and to make a movie like that everyone has to be onboard behind the script. That group wasn't."

Despite the failure to win agreement from Spielberg and Ford, Lucas continued to push on with his sci-fi idea. The late Jeffrey Boam, who wrote "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade," also took a run at a UFO-heavy script. "Finally," Lucas said, "we got to a point where everybody said, 'Look, we're not doing that movie.' And I said, 'Well, look, I can't think of another [idea]."

INDIANA JONES AND THE prodigal brother

By 2000, word came that yet another writer had been hired: twist-ending specialist M. Night Shyamalan. "Steven Spielberg told me he had seen 'The Sixth Sense' three times," Shyamalan told the Chicago Sun-Times.

A year later, he too was out. No script was reportedly ever produced. "[It] didn't work out with everybody," Shyamalan told Cinescape. "It's a tricky, tricky thing to get four of us together at the same time on the same page."

Shortly thereafter, more names were attached, including Stephen Gaghan ("Syriana") and Tom Stoppard ("Shakespeare in Love"), though no deals were announced. The Internet began buzzing with plot descriptions of what tipsters guaranteed was the next Jones adventure, including a search for Excalibur, a journey to Atlantis and a battle against H. P. Lovecraft's Cthulhu monster. All turned out to be bunk.

With Harrison Ford getting older and all three principals getting more frustrated, "Young Indiana Jones" and "The Shawshank Redemption" writer Frank Darabont was tapped in 2002. He eventually produced a script set in the 1950s, with Jones being hunted by latter-day Nazis. Spielberg and Ford loved the work, but Lucas was adamant that "this was not the story he wanted to tell at this point in the Indiana Jones saga," according to Spielberg. Rumor has it that Lucas was unhappy with a subplot involving Indy's brother.

In 2004, that script, too, was abandoned, souring Darabont's relationship with Lucas, perhaps forever. "It showed me how badly things can go," Darabont told MTV. "I spent a year of very determined effort on something I was very excited about, working very closely with Steven Spielberg and coming up with a result that I and he felt was terrific. Then the whole thing goes down in flames because George doesn't like the script."

Darabont declined to comment further.

INDIANA JONES AND THE FINAL DRAFT

In late 2004, Jeff Nathanson was hired to start fresh, working on a story with Lucas.

"They were realizing after so many years that things had changed, and they realized that this would be the last Indy film with this core group of George, Steven and Harrison," Nathanson tells The Post. "And in some ways, I think the [previous scripts] never really addressed the magnitude of that."

It was at this point that Mutt, the young sidekick, was created and the crystal skull was cemented as the object of Indy's search.

Nathanson says working on such an iconic character was a surprisingly loose experience. "They had been trying for so long, and it wasn't happening, so I didn't feel all that much pressure," he says. "Worst-case scenario, I was another writer who was part of the process. It's really just approached from a sense of fun.

"I did most of my work with George up at Skywalker Ranch. You're sitting in a room working with him, and there's the whip and hat sitting in a case next to you. It takes a while to get used to that. Once you adjust to that, it becomes about figuring out the pieces of the puzzle and making it work," he says.

Once Lucas and Nathanson had the outline in place, frequent Spielberg collaborator Koepp ("Jurassic Park") was handed all the previous work and asked to make sense of it.

"I liken it to remodeling a house from the inside," Koepp tells The Post. "You know how contractors will say, 'Well, it's much easier to tear it down.' And you'll say, 'No, no! We just need cabinets.' That was how I felt, because it had been 15 years of development and none of the people who worked on it were dumb."

He saved Darabont's notion of bringing Marion back, preserved a desert chase Stuart had imagined, and fleshed out Mutt and the mythology of crystal skulls.

"My feeling early on was that there were too many good ideas over the years. It had to be focused a little bit," Koepp says. "It was really hard, one of the hardest [scripts], because there are some very opinionated people to please. I kind of went in - maybe it's heresy - saying it will never be as good as 'Raiders,' because that was the first one. Let's get that out of the way and try to make a good movie."

And as for the heavy sci-fi influence that was evident in Stuart and Boam's scripts? Koepp says "Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" has its share. "This movie reflects the spirit of B-movies in 1957," he says. "I can't give anything away, but don't go in not expecting any [sci-fi], because it's there."

And what about Stuart's idea that Indy ought to get married? After all, former fling Marion is back, and he's roaming with a kid who shares at least his sense of adventure. Koepp suddenly falls silent when asked about nuptials.

Now it just remains to be seen whether all this work will pay off. Will audiences embrace the latest adventure, or will fans who've been waiting 19 years stumble out of the theater dissatisfied?

Stuart, who's read the final script, is optimistic. "It's great - it's a solid script," he says. "You stand on the shoulders of the writers that went before. You've got ['Raiders' writer] Larry Kasdan and Jeff Boam and all these great guys that have created the lineage of this story. It's not going to disappoint."

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Joe Redifer
You need a beating today

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From: Denver, Colorado
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 - posted 05-19-2008 11:54 PM      Profile for Joe Redifer   Author's Homepage   Email Joe Redifer   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Don't forget that the grosses will be tallied for Thursday-Monday since it is Memorial Day. $142,674.96

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Justin Hamaker
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 - posted 05-19-2008 11:55 PM      Profile for Justin Hamaker   Author's Homepage   Email Justin Hamaker   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Here's my thinking. Spider-Man 3 opened with a 3 day gross of $151 million the first weekend of May 2007. For Memorial Day weekend, Pirates of the Caribbean 3 had a 4 day gross of $139 million. In 2004, Spider-Man 2 opened on a long 4th of July weekend and had a 6 day gross of $180 million.

Given the popularity of the Indiana Jones franchise and the near 100% awareness, I'm going to put the 5 day gross (Thur-Mon) at $170-$180 million.

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Shane Cooper
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From: Little Rock, Arkansas
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 - posted 05-20-2008 12:01 AM      Profile for Shane Cooper   Email Shane Cooper   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Thursday-Sunday: $124,000,000

Thursday-Monday: $156,000,000

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Mike Blakesley
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From: Forsyth, Montana
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 - posted 05-20-2008 12:17 AM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
The big question is, is it going to pull in the teens and kids?

All of my staff is excited to see it, but little kids are clueless.

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Phil Blake
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Posts: 558
From: esperance western australia
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 - posted 05-20-2008 01:38 AM      Profile for Phil Blake   Author's Homepage   Email Phil Blake   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Mike Blakesley
The big question is, is it going to pull in the teens and kids?
I am not so confident , the hype is building over here but I am also hearing comments from or 10 to 24 year olds that they are not all that interested in watching an old man fumble about. Its not cool.
Given that 10 to 24 year olds make 90% of our patrons this could be a worry.
I would predict a much lower $60 million . One thing to look forward to is that it is in fact a great movie and word will get out and maybe week 2 is huge and that will give it legs.

It would be nice for all if it did open to 120 mill , I guess we will know in a few days ..............

[ 05-20-2008, 09:37 AM: Message edited by: Phil Blake ]

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Jaime Tuzzio
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From: Salem, OR, USA
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 - posted 05-20-2008 06:36 AM      Profile for Jaime Tuzzio         Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Justin Hamaker
Given the popularity of the Indiana Jones franchise and the near 100% awareness...
We put up the same Indiana Jones lobby decor everyone else seems to have received about two months ago. Even as recent as last week I overheard patrons walking in saying, "Hey look, they're making another Indiana Jones movie! I wonder if Harrison Ford is going to be in it."

100% Awareness: Episode 1? Yep. Two Towers & Return of the King? Absolutely. Harry Potter [pick a number]? Duh! Indy 4? Not so much.

I'm not saying it won't do well; it'll pull in huge numbers to be sure. I just don't think that everyone is aware that it's out there.

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Jonathan M. Crist
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 - posted 05-20-2008 07:57 AM      Profile for Jonathan M. Crist   Email Jonathan M. Crist   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Supposed to be a relatively nice Memorial Day weekend for most of the country. For the five days (Thurs - Mon) I would therefore guess 125 Million.

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Kurt Zupin
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 - posted 05-20-2008 09:38 PM      Profile for Kurt Zupin   Email Kurt Zupin   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I don't understand how you think that this movie doesn't have 100% awareness? This movie's everywhere, and has been everywhere for the past month. You go into a grocery store and you're going to see INDY everywhere. Cereal boxes, soda boxes, candy bags. EVERYWHERE! I look for this to make 114 mil Fri-Sun and 150 mil for Wed midnight-Monday

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Mike Blakesley
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From: Forsyth, Montana
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 - posted 05-20-2008 10:58 PM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Come on now...there is no such thing as 100% awareness. Even a mega-brand name like Coca Cola only claims something like 90% awareness.

We have the Indy poster in our lobby and on a daily basis, people walk by it saying "Oh look, there's another Indiana Jones coming."

Or sometimes they ask, "Is this a NEW Indiana Jones?" (I guess that since we've played classic movies at times, some people think this might be a repeat of one of the old films.)

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Kurt Zupin
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 - posted 05-21-2008 12:21 AM      Profile for Kurt Zupin   Email Kurt Zupin   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I agree with Mike, I guess I should of said that there are more people out there that know this movie is coming out then the ones that do. This movie will not fail because people don't know its there, it will fail because of bad word of mouth.(if thats the case) Not lack of advertisements.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

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 - posted 05-21-2008 01:23 AM      Profile for Bobby Henderson   Email Bobby Henderson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I'm sorry to sound harsh, but I think someone has to either be just plain dense or was living in the woods for the past year doing survivalist stuff not to know about this new Indy installment.

So that makes me wonder if anyone doing a "wow, I'm surprised they're making another Indiana Jones movie" reaction to a lobby standee is merely putting on some sort of silly act.

Everybody knows about the movie. The key question is whether enough people give a shit about it. I'm guessing certain age groups will not.

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Joseph Pandolfi
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 - posted 05-21-2008 09:03 AM      Profile for Joseph Pandolfi   Email Joseph Pandolfi   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I will say $108 million going from midnight Wednesday thru Sunday.

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David Stambaugh
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 - posted 05-21-2008 11:11 AM      Profile for David Stambaugh   Author's Homepage   Email David Stambaugh   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
OK, just to show I will admit when I've made a mistake [Wink] I'm revising my weekend gross estimate upward, based on mostly-positive reviews at rottentomatoes.com. I now say $140M for Thursday thru Sunday. [Smile] I just pulled that number out of my ass but it's going to be plenty big.

I am a little dismayed to read that there's a lot of obvious CG in it though. [thumbsdown]

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