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This topic comprises 6 pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6
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Topic: Fox Film Chief Stacey Snider Says Current Theatrical Windows Are ‘Anachronistic’
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David Buckley
Jedi Master Film Handler
Posts: 525
From: Oxford, N. Canterbury, New Zealand
Registered: Aug 2004
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posted 02-19-2017 03:17 PM
Mike Schulz bang on the money:
quote: Mike Schulz
if they keep shortening the release windows. 3 or 4 months is just enough time to convince people that they need to watch a movie at the cinema (especially the tent pole films like Star Wars, etc.) but there are still a lot of people who don't feel the need to see a movie right away and are willing to wait a few months.
Stacey's right in that the the vast, vast majority of screen business is done in the first week or two, but that is only because The Gap gets people to watch product at the movie houses. Take away The Gap, and they, well, just wont pay the premium and they'll watch at home. And as Bobby continually points out, home systems have never been so good.
The real problem is that if The Suits break the golden egg, there really is no going back. The public will never go back to cinemas, and that's the end of the money stream that makes the movies. Netflix gets the win.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 02-19-2017 05:34 PM
The big question is how many movie theaters need to stay in business to keep all the movie theater equipment suppliers in business? All of the companies that make projectors, cinema processors, speakers, theater seats, sconce lights, poster cases, etc. must build those products at some level of scale. They can't build that kind of stuff in one-off, two-off tiny quantities. There has to be enough theaters in business to keep those companies making stuff for that market.
A company like Dolby might still be able to continue making commercial level cinema processors if America's commercial movie theater market implodes. But they would be relying on almost all of their business going into the export market. Exporting is its own wildcard considering we could be lapsing into a freaking trade war with big countries like China. Dolby might see a bunch of doors slam shut on their business.
What kind of consequences could fall onto the theater business in other countries if America's theater business collapses? Many of those markets rely quite a bit on big budget American movies. If that supply of big budget content dries up it could be bad for thousands of theater screens in international markets even if they maintain various release windows.
As the suits in Hollywood keep shrinking the window between theatrical and home video release I just get more and more bearish on the future of America's entire movie industry. These bean counting executives either really don't seem to be aware of the kind of risk they're taking or they just don't care about it, living in complete denial. They're not seeing how this chess game could play out a dozen moves into the future. They have no idea how the contagion could spread if American movie theaters become a thing of the past.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 02-20-2017 10:54 AM
The movie industry had sort of an "oh shit" moment of panic when they finally realized once companies who made film related products, such as Kodak, went out of business that manufacturing capability would be gone forever. So they made some cursory effort to keep Kodak on life support and are now scrounging to keep at least some film projectors operational.
The situation is far more complicated and difficult with d-cinema product lines. Take the product lines for d-cinema projector lamps for instance. How many different models of d-cinema projector lamps are currently being produced? I imagine there is a fairly wide variety. But every lamp model needs a good base of installed projectors to be worth producing at all. Lamps are expensive enough as it is with many d-cinema systems currently in service. If that installation base dropped to a mere fraction the cost of those lamps would certainly get far more scary expensive.
The Hollywood studio suits are clearly taking movie theaters for granted. They think the theaters are always going to be there no matter how badly they erode the theaters' business model.
Lots of big, disruptive changes have taken place over the past 10 years. We've seen book stores and video rental stores vanish in many places. Big brands like Blockbuster Video and Waldenbooks are now gone. Physical media (books, CDs, DVDs, Blu-ray, etc.) could all become a thing of the past. Millions of Americans have ditched traditional land line phone service. Many are "cutting the cord," getting rid of traditional cable TV. How many people still send "snail mail" via the mailbox on their house or drop it in a USPS blue neighborhood mailbox? The Postal Service is having an ever more difficult time justifying its existence. Why spend a bunch of money on stamps when you send the same messages online instantly? Some of these big changes, like the demise of certain retailers, has been brought about by people looking for bargains (mainly online).
Movie theaters are not immune at all to these same disruptive changes. Movie theaters have been around for all of our lives. But the same goes for other businesses that now seem to be gasping their last dying breaths. Sears has been in business over 100 years and pioneered much of the modern business model of brick and mortar retail. Our Sears store in Lawton's Central Mall is going to close in March. I think the entire company will be lucky if it survives to see 2018.
If America's movie theater business fails I worry about how the fallout from that could spread to other kinds of brick and mortar businesses. Whether it's an obsolete 70's style mall or a newer "town center" plaza many shopping centers have a big movie theater as an anchor to attract customers after work, after dark and on the weekends. If theaters disappear it could lead to a major drop in foot traffic at these shopping centers. When people go shopping they often like to eat out and see a movie as part of that experience of getting out of the house. Without the entertainment option that just makes it easier to stay at home and order something from Amazon.
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Mitchell Dvoskin
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1869
From: West Milford, NJ, USA
Registered: Jan 2001
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posted 02-20-2017 02:18 PM
> Movie theaters have been around for all of our lives. But the same goes for other businesses that now seem to be gasping their last dying breaths.
100 years ago in February of 1917, almost every town and city in this country had at least one, if not more, blacksmith shops that fulfilled a community need. In my lifetime, I can not ever remember seeing an operating blacksmith shop. Mass production allowed for the ordering, either by a retailer or mail order, replacement parts for whatever you needed.
The movie production and exhibition business has been sacrificing it's future for short term profitably since the 1970's, when it all but abandoned the weekly family market for more adult (R Rated) entertainment. Like now, there were a lot of factors that went into that short sighted decision, such as home video and cable tv, but the long term results is that we now have almost 2 generations of people who were not brought up going to the movies on a regular basis. If movie theatres were to disappear, I don't think that the majority of people under 35 would even notice.
The problem that the exhibition industry faces now is that for many, there is no reason to go out to a theatre to see a movie. Those that care about presentation can do it better at home than many theatres, and those who don't tend to care only about the cost. The only thing theatres have going is the exclusive window. When that is gone, there are going to be a whole lot of locations going with them.
That said, some theatres will survive, and some of those will even run movies now and again. Unless, of course, the exhibition industry finds some way to remain relevant.
Finally, as stated above, there is an entire infrastructure required to produce the equipment and replacement parts needed for theatrical exhibition. Once that infrastructure is no longer economically viable, it is "The End - Made in Hollywood USA".
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 02-20-2017 11:13 PM
quote: Pravin Ratnam
I have been a loyal movie theater goer for decades ever since I was a little kid watching all kinds of movies and not just kids movies back in the day. I gotta say. The thrill is gone. When I watch a movie on Amazon Prime or netflix, sometimes, it is tough for me to even remember if this movie had a theatrical release or not. So this issue which was a bigger deal to me in the past is not resonating to me as much these days.
One big difference is Netflix and Amazon are not sinking upwards of $100 million or $200 million into the production budget of a single 2-hour movie. A bunch of their original movies are fairly low budget fare that would likely go direct to DVD anyway. They are collectively spending a lot of money on productions, but they're spreading most of that across a whole bunch of TV series projects.
quote: Frank Cox
There doesn't seem to be the sort of excitement around a movie now that there used to be. I remember when I played stuff like Toy Story (the first one) there was a real buzz and excitement around it; these days there doesn't seem to be as much excitement in the lobby as there used to be for that sort of thing. People are getting more and more jaded, I guess.
I think it's the Save the Cat curse among other things. Major movie studio executives are now having to answer to bosses in parent media holding corporations. Those guys aren't interested in taking any chances. They want to sell the same ideas over and over again. To make matters worse, they want these regurgitated and repackaged ideas to translate better to international audiences. That effectively means more explosions, less suspension of disbelief and far less witty banter. Humor and other kinds of amusing exchanges between characters can be lost in translation to audiences in China, Russia, etc.
Traditional 2-hour movies are growing more bland and predictable. The situation is bad enough that a movie that takes a few chances but is still overall a mediocre movie can be a sort of big sensation until people realize the movie isn't quite so great and they get sick of it. I figure this is why my movie buying habits over the past few years have dropped off to near zero.
quote: Mitchell Dvoskin
The movie production and exhibition business has been sacrificing it's future for short term profitably since the 1970's, when it all but abandoned the weekly family market for more adult (R Rated) entertainment.
Prior to the late 1970's I don't think there was any more in the way of real family oriented movies than in the decades following the 70's. Full length animated movies and other movies specifically geared for children were not all that common. Movies made before the mid 1960's may have had to follow rules of the Hays Code, but most of those "clean" movies were still very much geared for adult audiences.
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