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This topic comprises 9 pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
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Author
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Topic: "The Living Wage" (coming soon to a Theatre Near You)
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Marcel Birgelen
Film God
Posts: 3357
From: Maastricht, Limburg, Netherlands
Registered: Feb 2012
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posted 01-11-2018 09:50 AM
quote: Bobby Henderson
But there is hope. Chances are between extremely slim to none that Oprah will run to be the next President of 'Murica. Conservatives in America certainly don't want that. And the early returns show many Liberals in America aren't turned on by the idea either.
Well... people have said that in the past about a certain reality TV star too. ![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
Although, I happen to agree with you.
Personally, I hope the "western world" in general could figure out a way to simply see populist politics for what it is. It's certainly not just an American issue and it is very much a "bipartisan" issue.
There are quite a few challenges on the horizon which our governments should not simply ignore, because there are more popular problems that need "solving".
The increasing age and lack of new offspring is a problem that many western societies face. Combined with, even with all western health issues at hand (e.g. obesity), the general life expectancy still increasing in most western countries, this will create some potential problems in the not so distant future, since the working population will only decrease. So, we have less and less people that can care for those who simply aren't able to work anymore.
On the other hand, there's an ever increasing amount of automation, reducing the amount of people doing primarily menial jobs. A good example are the order kiosks at McDonald's, or the automated ticket booths and on-line ticketing at many movie theaters nowadays, but also the move from film to digital.
The biggest challenge here is how to let the general working class benefit from those kind of developments, because right now they aren't. The increased profits due to payroll cuts achieved through automation aren't flowing to the working class, they're primarily flowing to the usually already rich shareholders.
I think in a modern, western society, more people should be aware of those challenges and should be more focused on working towards solutions for those challenges. Unfortunately, right now the "left" and "right" seem to be in a continuous girlfight with each other, while the stinking rich, the proverbial 1%, are grabbing the juicy bones away.
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Harold Hallikainen
Jedi Master Film Handler
Posts: 906
From: Denver, CO, USA
Registered: Aug 2009
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posted 01-11-2018 10:28 AM
Interesting discussion! The automation removing jobs reminds me of the book Player Piano ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Piano_(novel) ). The only people employed were managers and engineers.
The wide disparity of wages and cost of living around the US is interesting. We moved from California to the Denver area last year. Though people in Denver are complaining about high housing costs (due to us from California moving here), we were able to buy a house here for less than the cost of the condo we bought in 2004 in California. Migration, I expect, is tending to even out costs throughout the country (but slowly). I expect that cost of living is really driven by the availability of jobs. There's a bit of a positive feedback loop there where companies move to where the trained employees are, and employees move to where the companies are.
Obsolete skills have always been a problem. In the past, technology moved more slowly, and people did not live as long. With the large amount of training and education needed for many jobs, it's difficult to move to something else when one becomes obsolete.
We also, of course, have international trade. Consumer electronics manufacturing has largely moved to Asia. This has improved the standard of living in those countries and caused lost jobs here. I wonder how the worldwide standard of living has changed through international trade. I expect there have been winners and losers, but perhaps the overall quality of life has improved. We probably should not sentence someone to a life of poverty for living across some imaginary line (an international border).
On living wage, I wonder if, in those cities that have implemented it, they have seen a decrease in public assistance requirements. I have not seen any numbers. But, I suppose it's possible that higher costs have resulted in more automation and higher unemployment.
On education, I used to teach electronic technology at a community college. This included DC and AC circuit analysis, transistors, analog circuits like operational amplifiers, digital logic, microprocessors (my first assignment was teaching assembly language programming), math for electronics, etc. Originally, the classes were transferable into an Electronics Technology degree program at Cal Poly. When Cal Poly dropped that program, our enrollment dropped substantially. The program became severely watered down. It redirected to robotics, computer networking, and finally electrical contracting. Some of the students did well in the SF bay area with our training, but I don't know how most of them did. I really hope we were not wasting their time. In any case, training people for the jobs of tomorrow is a gamble since we do not know what the jobs of tomorrow will be, and they will probably not last a lifetime.
I've been lucky. I started electronics with vacuum tubes. audio, and RF. Moved to transistors, small scale digital and analog integrated circuits, microprocessors, firmware, and microcontrollers. For now, it appears I am still able to create useful stuff.
Harold
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 01-11-2018 12:17 PM
quote: Marcel Birgelen
The increasing age and lack of new offspring is a problem that many western societies face. Combined with, even with all western health issues at hand (e.g. obesity), the general life expectancy still increasing in most western countries, this will create some potential problems in the not so distant future, since the working population will only decrease. So, we have less and less people that can care for those who simply aren't able to work anymore.
The United States has seen its life expectancy drop for at least a couple consecutive years in a row due to the growing number of drug overdose deaths. That's another complicated topic. Still, the median age in the US and other western nations is skewing older. European nations and Russia have been struggling with the issue of low birth rate for some time while it's a new problem in the United States.
A shrinking working age population poses a great threat to government budgets; they'll be less able to afford programs that aid a disproportionately large and growing elderly population. Civil unrest and cultural conflict is another threat. The United States has a very long history of importing labor, both legally & illegally. Let's not forget about slavery either. Culture clashes, racism, xenophobia and even violence are hazards. Europe has been dealing with a flood of immigrants from the Middle East. Fears of European culture being displaced and replaced by Islamic culture have given rise to racism, nationalism and isolationism. I think the backlash is one of the motivating factors behind the UK's "Brexit."
Of course we have some of the same problems here in the United States. Some people want immigration from the Middle East blocked, immigration from Mexico greatly reduced and illegal immigrants deported. But if new generations of American-born adults are having dramatically fewer children then the government and businesses both will have no choice but to import more foreign-born labor. Mass deportations and embargoes on new immigration could yield lots of unintended consequences. It's all but guaranteed many agricultural and livestock processing operations would either shut down or drastically reduce output due to widespread labor shortages. We would see prices of domestic-sourced food spike, forcing far more food imports.
quote: Marcel Birgelen
The biggest challenge here is how to let the general working class benefit from those kind of developments, because right now they aren't.
Soaring education costs are locking many people out of being able to re-train. Add to that the time factor. If someone is reduced to working low wage jobs that person may be be forced to work 2 or more of those jobs. That leaves no time for school and the homework that comes with it.
quote: Harold Hallikainen
On living wage, I wonder if, in those cities that have implemented it, they have seen a decrease in public assistance requirements. I have not seen any numbers. But, I suppose it's possible that higher costs have resulted in more automation and higher unemployment.
For high cost metro areas with cities like San Francisco I have doubts the wage jump has helped. $15 per hour in San Francisco is still going to be starvation wages. Hell, I saw a news article about a software engineer for Google making $200,000 per year struggling to support his wife and 2 kids in the Bay Area. It's ridiculous. Walmart just announced it will bump its starting wage to $11 per hour (giving credit to recently passed tax cuts). $11 per hour can be a livable wage here in Lawton if you're willing to do without in a few categories. $11 per hour isn't enough to survive in most cities.
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Mitchell Dvoskin
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1869
From: West Milford, NJ, USA
Registered: Jan 2001
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posted 01-11-2018 02:28 PM
Getting back to Dave Bird's original question, it is obvious that he has three choices (or any combination).
- Raise prices.
- Cut staffing (if possible).
- Eat the extra cost.
Unless your venue is next to a lower labor cost jurisdiction, all your competitors are in the same boat, and will face the same three options.
While nobody likes their costs to rise, if a given location is running so close to the edge that this will push them over the edge, perhaps they should think of closing the location.
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As to the post regarding the lack of job applicants, what this should tell you is that staffing based upon hiring student workers at minimum wage is no longer viable, and probably will become less so over time. Perhaps it is time to re-think that business model, at least in those locations.
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The one thing I would not do is take the wage hike out on the staff. They are the ones who deal with the public. If they are unhappy, eventually the customers will be too.
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Dave Bird
Jedi Master Film Handler
Posts: 777
From: Perth, Ontario, Canada
Registered: Jun 2000
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posted 01-11-2018 09:49 PM
Mitchell, been working on spreadsheeting our data last couple days, and it's funny, right in the middle of it another drive-in owner up here rang me out of the blue and they were doing the same thing. The answer looks to be a couple things. We'll tweak admission price again this year a bit and we set concessions at a 65-70% margin every year anyway. We will cut hours back, partly because we planned on working ourselves more this year anyway (and owners work REAL cheap!) and partly because we have a lot of long-time kids leaving anyway (and won't be disappointing them). We're also somewhat insulated as half to two-thirds of our hours in the past have been worked by two or three key "managers" who we paid $13.60, $15.65 & $16. With those kids leaving and this years minimum wage $14 (and next year's $15), we're looking at about a 15-18% increase IF we can't save any hours. Likely our own time will do it, but I think we'll look to some new equipment and a box office relocation to allow us to "break even" or better on wage cost. I'd like to maintain the ability to let our next wave of "star staffers" to jump in and manage the place in the future and still have room for a decent profit.
I hope we can weather it, the provincial and federal governments here are on an extreme opposite socialist kick right now. Many new taxes (and taxes on taxes for things like fuel) which could really ramp up inflation. That new minimum will be indexed to inflation and the sad part for those people is this has bumped them to a new bracket, so not only will things start to cost more, their buying power will be even less than before because they're only going to see half (or less) of the raise. That's IF they keep their hours, or indeed their jobs. A higher tax deduction for these lower wages would've worked much better, but in an election time for a desperate government, I guess that wasn't sexy enough.
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Marcel Birgelen
Film God
Posts: 3357
From: Maastricht, Limburg, Netherlands
Registered: Feb 2012
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posted 01-12-2018 06:52 AM
quote: Bobby Henderson
A shrinking working age population poses a great threat to government budgets; they'll be less able to afford programs that aid a disproportionately large and growing elderly population. Civil unrest and cultural conflict is another threat. The United States has a very long history of importing labor, both legally & illegally. Let's not forget about slavery either. Culture clashes, racism, xenophobia and even violence are hazards. Europe has been dealing with a flood of immigrants from the Middle East. Fears of European culture being displaced and replaced by Islamic culture have given rise to racism, nationalism and isolationism. I think the backlash is one of the motivating factors behind the UK's "Brexit."
Western European countries like the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium but also to some extend the U.K. have heavily relied on immigrants to fill in positions that nobody else wanted to take. This included immigrants from other European countries like Italy, Spain and Greece, but later also from Morocco, Turkey and many former colonies and now from other European countries like Poland. It's pretty much comparable to the Mexican situation in the United States. Go to any fast food outlet in any major city in Europe and chances you're being helped by someone from "foreign heritage" are pretty much 3 to 1.
Many of those immigrants lacking any modern kind of education, are still stuck in lower wage groups, while others managed to perfectly integrate with the Western European society. Those stuck in those lower wage groups eventually became problematic, also because their offspring usually didn't manage to escape from those groups. Unfortunately, this never was a real point of interest for any political policy, so it only became an issue until it developed into a real problem. I doubt race or religion is really the driving factor here, it's simply the fact that those living in proverbial slums of the society are just much more likely to exhort to other means and ways of relieving their frustration.
The recent influx of refugees is something that's often used for popular media and politics on both sides to make some kind of point. While it's true that there were quite a few incidents which can be subscribed to refugees, it's not like Europe's city suddenly have become the hell hole they're sometimes pictured to be. I'm walking across the streets of Amsterdam, Berlin or even Brussels like I did before, without constant fear of being blown up or mowed down by some semi-truck.
Right now, those refugees are largely accounted for, they're primarily living in their temporary shelters and most of them aren't here to blow things up, they simply want to survive. What's important though is that those people don't become the problematic immigrants of the future. This, however, would require policies that not only potentially span multiple governmental terms, but in Europe, also something that spans multiple countries. In the current governmental framework of the E.U., that's something like landing a 747 on an aircraft carrier...
quote: Bobby Henderson
Soaring education costs are locking many people out of being able to re-train. Add to that the time factor. If someone is reduced to working low wage jobs that person may be be forced to work 2 or more of those jobs. That leaves no time for school and the homework that comes with it.
I'm generally not really a hardcore socialist (although viewpoints might differ ![[Wink]](wink.gif) ), I don't think that all education needs to be entirely free for example. But I do think the government has an important role in keeping education accessible for the general population, while in the meantime ensure proper wages for those working in the educational field, both as a teacher or as supporting staff.
Besides all movements to the contrary, the global market will only further go into that direction, because simply said: People want to buy cheap shit made in China.
It's not like the people born somewhere in Africa are inherently more stupid than in e.g. the U.S. The primary difference is the education each will be able to enjoy. So, in my opinion, the only way to actually contribute to this global economy on the scale of a society is not to try to provide cheaper labor than the other, but to be smarter. For that, you need an educated population and an educated population requires affordable access to good education and the proper trust that a good education will be a good foundation for a stable future, at least financially.
Unfortunately, we in the Western world have the habit to forget this. I think currently, it's even a bigger problem for the U.S. than for Europe. While there is plenty of good education in the U.S., it's becoming increasingly less accessible for those who do not bring the money with them. The same is also happening in Europe to a lesser extent, primarily due to governments losing lack of focus on education, but also due to a bunch of universities trying too hard to join the rank of the U.S. elite universities.
The lack of properly educated people is even hurting our business, because it's simply close to impossible to hire the required knowledge. Last year we had somebody doing his bachelor's degree with us. The knowledge of this guy was just plain laughable and sad. Eventually we had to vote whether or not he did pass the requirements. We voted against it, because what he produced lacked any kind of thoroughness and depth you'd expect for somebody getting his Bachelor of Science, especially compared to what I had to do for mine. Eventually, his school decided to give him his bachelor's degree, essentially because they needed the numbers to make themselves look better. It's a good example of how education is slowly adjusted to the lowest denominator and how certificates slowly lose any indication of value.
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Leo Enticknap
Film God
Posts: 7474
From: Loma Linda, CA
Registered: Jul 2000
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posted 01-12-2018 10:52 AM
I'll try to keep this on topic (wage regulation), but it's not a topic that can be understood without getting into politics, because regulation is a political act, done by politicians. And the two issues Marcel raises - immigration and education - are a big part of this mix.
On the immigration issue, globalization has made migration a lot easier and a lot cheaper. The result is that increasing numbers of people are using that option when they find themselves living in a country with a combination of chronic economic dysfunction, and poor government that can't, or won't, do anything about it. President Trump coined a phrase for such places yesterday, and this, I think, is the answer to the question he asked (why is most migration to the United States from underdeveloped and dysfunctional nations?). Migration to the developed world from nations that are still developing, but are doing so successfully and overseen by what are essentially competent and functioning governments (I would give India and Brazil as examples) is far, far lower. The citizens of these countries have realistic hopes and expectations of improving things where they are, and of ending their lives with a better standard of living than they started them. In places like Haiti and Somalia they don't, hence the reason they want to get out.
And I agree totally with Marcel's comments on education. The problems there are not just skyrocketing costs and dumbing down, though both are definitely happening. They are also with what is being taught, especially at the university level. As some here will know, I worked in higher education for 12 years, and during that time saw a huge expansion in humanities and social sciences teaching and research, but little if any in STEM areas. The number of career opportunities paying a decent wage for someone with a degree in philosophy or cultural studies is very limited, and always has been. Until around the late 1990s, this wasn't a problem, because very few people (as a proportion of the overall population) did these programs. In the last two decades, they have expanded massively, and the cost and student debt load attached to them has spiraled out of control, too. Combine that with the fact that the earning power of most of these graduates will likely never go above $30-40k a year (unless they go on to postgraduate education or training in something relevant to the economy, probably at extra cost), and the economy has a ticking time bomb. Meanwhile, Europe and America has to import engineers and doctors from Asia, because we're not producing enough of our own.
The end product of this and other factors is that increasing numbers of inadequately skilled workers are pressuring their elected politicians to regulate the minimum wage upwards, in response to which businesses feel resistance from their customers to foot that bill, and respond by automating as many of these lower paying jobs out of existence as they can.
The answer to this begins and ends with education in the developed world, and addressing poorly functioning and totally dysfunctional government in the developing one.
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Scott Jentsch
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1061
From: New Berlin, WI, USA
Registered: Apr 2003
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posted 01-12-2018 11:00 AM
I'll take a crack at reeling it back in.
Perhaps a good way to frame this issue is to look at the situation with a fresh perspective.
If the reality is that the minimum wage that can be paid is going to be higher than in the past, then it makes sense to look at ways in which those wages can be maximized.
For example, is it cost-efficient to pay someone to collect money by selling a movie ticket, or is that better done through a kiosk? I tend to dislike automated checkouts at stores, because I feel like I'm doing the work that the store should be doing and not getting any discount for doing so, and then the checkout device often needs to be babysat by a clerk anyway. That's not efficient, and it's frustrating for the customer. So, maybe a little money saved in labor (but not when considering the cost of that automated device), and more customer dissatisfaction.
However, with a movie ticket purchase, the process is pretty simple. There are a limited number of choices and if the kiosk is well-designed, it should be fairly painless for the customer. You'll still need a clerk to babysit a number of machines for special circumstances, but a well-designed checkout system shouldn't need much. Payment can be a challenge, but credit/debit cards and gift cards are so common, I would think that it would be not insurmountable.
The same logic should be applied to concessions, cleaning, etc. Is there such a thing as a Roomba for large commercial spaces?
One of the biggest things we were told in school (1980s) was to be irreplaceable. Learn something that no one else knows. Do more than everyone else. If you can be replaced by a robot or a kiosk, you're in big danger! Unfortunately, so many employees I see act in such a way that I often wish I had an automated option to having to get help from someone who obviously hates his job and doesn't want to be there.
If the lower-level tasks can be taken up by automation of some kind, it opens up those employees (who are having to be paid more) to do something that more greatly benefits the theater than if they were just selling a ticket. Maybe the ticket ripper (if one is necessary) could be more of a host/hostess, where they are the face of the theater. Maybe those employees could be floating hosts/hostesses, making sure that people are having a good time, checking theaters for cleanliness and disruptive patrons.
My point is, maybe instead of bemoaning having to pay employees more to do the same job, maybe they need to be reassigned to different jobs that benefit the theater more.
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Scott Norwood
Film God
Posts: 8146
From: Boston, MA. USA (1774.21 miles northeast of Dallas)
Registered: Jun 99
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posted 01-12-2018 12:44 PM
The other Scott makes an interesting point above.
If I were a cinema owner, though, I would be concerned about automating too much. Unlike fast food, where the actual food preparation part of the business is labor-intensive and offers great potential for automation, most of the jobs in a cinema are customer-facing positions. (Projectionists have largely been automated out of their jobs at this point.) While it might be possible to install automated ticket machines, concession vending machines, and turnstiles at the auditorium entrance(s), would customers accept that?
A movie theatre is supposed to be a happy, fun place where people feel like they are being taken care of by the staff (and where regular customers sometimes know the employees personally). Would people really accept a fully automated cinema (perhaps with a manager and a skeleton cleaning staff)? To me, such a place would feel more like riding on a public transit system (not usually a fun experience) than going out for a night of entertainment.
I am not sure how to solve this, unfortunately. Maybe one of the big chains will take a gamble on this and find out if customers will accept it. Or maybe customers will be willing to pay higher prices (with their higher incomes) for personal service.
Unrelated comment to Leo's excellent post above: another educational opportunity that is being missed right now is vocational training. For some reason, this has fallen out of favor, but it tends to be far cheaper than a standard liberal-arts college would be. And the demand for tradesmen is high, and the jobs are difficult or impossible to send off-shore. Plumbers, electricians, and mechanics all need to be where the work is.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 01-12-2018 01:01 PM
quote: Scott Jentsch
My point is, maybe instead of bemoaning having to pay employees more to do the same job, maybe they need to be reassigned to different jobs that benefit the theater more.
Another thing people don't appear to realize when they're bemoaning having to pay a higher minimum wage: prices on so many other things have risen. At my company we've seen prices for all kinds of things rise (vehicles, raw materials and components for manufacturing, various office supplies, health insurance, workers comp insurance, etc). Having to bump up wages is just one factor of many.
I laugh at our government's inflation figures since they conveniently leave out things like food and fuel -stuff that everybody has to buy. High fuel prices were the trigger that set off the great recession last decade. Price inflation on housing varies to an extreme from one region to the next, pretty stable here in Oklahoma yet freaking nuts in places like California. Not only does a minimum wage lack the buying power it did in the past, that lack of buying power gets considerably worse in highly populated areas.
Automation has repeatedly been mentioned in the vibe of keeping payroll affordable so the business doesn't go broke. There is a bigger motivation for automating away human employees: more profit. Low wage service industry employees aren't the only people whose jobs are in danger from automation. A lot of white collar, paper pushing jobs will be caught in the gun sights too. Improvements in artificial intelligence and automated statistical analysis will make bigger impacts.
So, yes, people need to be competitive at the skills they learn, but learn skills that a robot or computer system can't do.
quote: Marcel Birgelen
I'm generally not really a hardcore socialist (although viewpoints might differ :Wink:), I don't think that all education needs to be entirely free for example. But I do think the government has an important role in keeping education accessible for the general population, while in the meantime ensure proper wages for those working in the educational field, both as a teacher or as supporting staff.
It's vital for the economic stability and security for any first world nation to have a reasonably well-educated and skilled general public. With all the absurdities present in America's general education and higher education systems I think very people people in the US are concerned about the big picture view.
American colleges and universities are increasingly dependent on foreign-born students (the top reason why they're against limits on H1-B Visas). As tuition prices have skyrocketed and student loan debt burdens have ballooned the situation has priced more Americans out of being able to afford a college degree. American universities are commonly touted as being the world's best, which attracts students across the globe and lots of tuition money. The long term worry for universities is many of these international students are taking their education and skills back home to have careers there and then teach there in the long run. American universities are going to see competition heat up globally for those international students from rich families.
quote: Scott Norwood
If I were a cinema owner, though, I would be concerned about automating too much. Unlike fast food, where the actual food preparation part of the business is labor-intensive and offers great potential for automation, most of the jobs in a cinema are customer-facing positions. (Projectionists have largely been automated out of their jobs at this point.) While it might be possible to install automated ticket machines, concession vending machines, and turnstiles at the auditorium entrance(s), would customers accept that?
I mentioned this possible problem earlier in the thread. Visiting a movie theater is a little like visiting a sit-down restaurant. I think customers do expect at least some human customer service involvement. If a movie theater is just filled with ticket kiosks, self-serve refreshment stations and human-free projection booths it will seem very cold and sterile. A theater at least needs a certain number of staffers there for crowd control and public safety.
Regarding ticket kiosks, I'm wondering just how many of those things would even be necessary in a theater. A lot of theaters are installing recliner seating and going to reserve seating setups. If I visit a theater with reserve seating I'm going to buy my ticket online and get my seat(s) reserved long before arriving at the theater.
quote: Scott Norwood
Unrelated comment to Leo's excellent post above: another educational opportunity that is being missed right now is vocational training. For some reason, this has fallen out of favor, but it tends to be far cheaper than a standard liberal-arts college would be. And the demand for tradesmen is high, and the jobs are difficult or impossible to send off-shore. Plumbers, electricians, and mechanics all need to be where the work is.
My brother didn't go to college at all, but he's doing pretty well as a diesel truck mechanic. He's been doing that kind of work for over 20 years and is now a supervisor at a Freightliner dealership. Although he didn't go to college he has taken a LOT of different courses on vehicles and the stuff they keep changing from one model to the next.
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