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This topic comprises 6 pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6
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Topic: Exhibition in 2018
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 10-22-2008 03:24 PM
I find some of those predictions surprising -especially because some don't make much sense. That's just my opinion of course.
1. Even if 3D does get significantly more popular, I don't agree most major productions will use it. CG animated movies are going to adopt 3D across the board. Certain genre pictures, like horror movies, can be effective in 3D. I don't see serious drama or light comedy embracing it.
2. Full color 3D in home theater won't cause demand for bigger screens. It will increase demand for better quality movie theaters.
Predictions 3, 4 and 5 contradict each other and don't seem economically feasible. A true "destination theater," complete with restaurants and other attractions, costs a fortune to build and demands heavy customer traffic for survival. Currently there are too many first run theater screens. I don't think the market can support a lot more. Theater companies will have to consolidate resources into fewer theater sites boasting a higher quality movie-going experience.
I don't agree with prediction #6. Overall I'm not impressed with how theaters have handled alternative content so far. Much of it has limited customer appeal. Things like live sporting events are going to attract more people to restaurants and sports bars that serve drinks and allow for rowdy, cheering crowds.
Not sure about prediction #7. Movie studios could use their marketing muscle to promote certain kinds of alternative content -like a DLP showing of a sold out, major Broadway stage play. But they're not going to have a stake in a lot of other kinds of content like live concerts, pay per view fights, etc.
I agree with prediction #8.
Regarding #9, I think film will be gone from first run theaters by 2018. The only way I see it hanging around is via IMAX or 70mm -if the film is made anymore at that time.
If prediction #10 happens, it would only work if DVDs and BDs are sold exclusively in the theater lobby and for a high, premium price. If day and date happened with the movies being available at any retail store or for rent at video stores it would be a fatal poison pill for the movie theater industry.
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Scott Norwood
Film God
Posts: 8146
From: Boston, MA. USA (1774.21 miles northeast of Dallas)
Registered: Jun 99
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posted 10-22-2008 08:51 PM
I have not received this issue yet and can't comment on the article (and I will spare everyone my opinion of Nick Dager's previous articles (hint: low) and Boxoffice in general (hint: also low)), but here are my comments, should anyone care:
quote: Mike Blakesley
1. Most major Hollywood movies will be released in 3-D
Unlikely. We have had the ability to produce 3D films for 60+ years and yet only a handful have been made in the format. Why would this change now? Most films just wouldn't benefit from 3D. Add to that the fact that many people have lousy 3D vision and that many more find the glasses annoying. Large-format films and CGI/Pixar-type films seem to benefit most from 3D.
quote: Mike Blakesley
2. 3-D home theatre will increase demand for bigger screens at the cineplex
HD was available in 1998 (as a viable commercial product) and is just now becoming affordable to the average consumer. A viable, consumer-friendly 3D-at-home product does not currently exist and likely won't for several years. I don't see how this would become anything more than a high-end niche product by 2018.
quote: Mike Blakesley
3. Screens will get a lot bigger
Doesn't this logically follow #2 above, if he's correct? Personally, I can see that the average screen size will increase when the dumpy mini-mall theatres are killed off, but I can't imagine that average screen size in new construction will change. If anything, new screens will be slightly smaller, as theatres with lower seating capacity are built.
quote: Mike Blakesley
4. Theatres will increasingly become destinations (with restaurants and such)
I can believe this. Customers will demand something more than seats and a screen.
quote: Mike Blakesley
5. There will be more theatres and more screens (some of which will show very little first-run content)
I disagree completely. Ticket sales are either flat or slightly rising, but entertainment options continue to proliferate and there is no sign that the quality of major releases will improve substantially in the next decade. Many smaller communities will lose their theatres as people choose other forms of entertainment; this may not be a bad thing if the theatres that fail are 1970s shoebox-style multiplexes.
Further, I would think that the proportion of screens showing first-run features will increase, as video and cable continue to kill what is left of the discount/dollar-house market.
quote: Mike Blakesley
6. Alternative content will be the major revenue source for most exhibitors
I don't have numbers, but my understanding is that alternative content has (to date) pretty much been a loser, due to the cost of advertising one-night-only events, as well as the general lack of interest on the part of the general public. I don't see this changing in a mainstream way, although I don't doubt that someone, somewhere will find success with it in a niche market.
quote: Mike Blakesley
7. Hollywood will try to play a key role in alternative content
I don't have an opinion on this. I guess it depends upon whether "Hollywood" (whoever that is) thinks that there is money to be made in alternative content.
quote: Mike Blakesley
8. There will be fewer Hollywood major studios
No opinion.
quote: Mike Blakesley
9. Some theatres will still be showing 35mm prints
No question in my mind. I'm quite sure that 35mm film will exist substantially forever in the art-house and repertory markets, at least.
quote: Mike Blakesley
10. Day and date release will be the norm. Exhibitors will want it.
No opinion.
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Justin Hamaker
Film God
Posts: 2253
From: Lakeport, CA USA
Registered: Jan 2004
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posted 12-03-2013 08:22 PM
Looking at the points from the article.
1. Most major Hollywood movies will be released in 3-D
I think most of us now see this is not going to happen. While 3D can still be a great format for the right movie (Gravity, Life of Pi, Avatar), we are seeing a leveling off of the number of 3D releases. Plus customers are starting to reject 3D in many instances.
2. 3-D home theatre will increase demand for bigger screens at the cineplex
After some initial interest, it seems that 3D television has been relegated to the ranks of a novelty. If I was buying a new TV today, 3D would not even make the list of features I'm interested in. And I certainly don't see 3D as driving the design of auditoriums.
3. Screens will get a lot bigger
Large screen formats seem to be growing in popularity, but I don't think we're seeing any particular push to increase screen size. If anything, I think new theatres would be more focused on the quantity of auditoriums, and only a couple of those would have large screens with the latest sound formats.
4. Theatres will increasingly become destinations (with restaurants and such)
In large markets, I think it's logical to have a movie theatre anchor a shopping center or entertainment destination. But only in markets with enough population to make this viable. In any town, real estate near a movie theatre will be desirable for restaurants. But that's simply a matter picking a prime location.
5. There will be more theatres and more screens (some of which will show very little first-run content)
There has been little growth in the number of screens since the article was published (less than 1000 additional according to NATO data). Other than replacing outdated theatres with new locations, and building in locations with growing population, I don't see where there is a major demand for new theatre construction.
6. Alternative content will be the major revenue source for most exhibitors
We have yet to see alternative content become a major revenue source for theatres, and it's difficult to see that changing. If the industry can work out licensing agreements with the major professional sports leagues, we might see growth for major events. But I don't see those as a major regular revenue source.
7. Hollywood will try to play a key role in alternative content
no comment on this one.
8. There will be fewer Hollywood major studios
I think it was obvious that Lionsgate was starting to become a major studio in 2008. If you include LG, that makes 7 major studios in 2013. At this point there has been nothing to indicate this will change any time soon. Although some minor studios have had successful releases, we keep seeing those bought up and folded into one of the majors, or merging to create stronger specialty studios.
9. Some theatres will still be showing 35mm prints
Given that we are on the verge of seeing the studios stop making 35mm prints for new releases, this is obviously a bad prediction. By 2018, 35mm film will be completely gone from first run distribution. It will only be shown in specialty repository theatres, and even that seems like it will be extremely rare.
10. Day and date release will be the norm. Exhibitors will want it. (He predicts theatres will sell DVDs in the lobby and will be the exclusive place to buy them during the "window." He also says this is the prediction he's least confident in.)
Until one of the studios is willing to take a gamble on doing a day and date release for a major title, it's unlikely this is going to happen. So far we have not seen any day and date DVD releases (to the best of my knowledge), and day and date VOD has been limited to small marginal films. Furthermore, the DVD window seems to have more or less stabilized at about 3 months for most releases.
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