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Topic: Exhibition in 2018

Louis Bornwasser
Film God

Posts: 4441
From: prospect ky usa
Registered: Mar 2005

posted 12-03-2013 09:22 PM

By 2018, cinemas will be second run behind downloads.

Studios will sell direct; no need for Netflix. Louis

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 12-03-2013 10:12 PM

I'm kind of surprised the 2nd half of the above post hasn't come true already. The studios all have websites; they could easily set up pay-to-stream portals. I'll bet that'll happen.

As for the first half above, I don't believe that at all. If you think about it, and just thinking of moviegoing habits of people (not of theater operations themselves), the industry really hasn't changed all that much in the last five years, and doesn't really show many signs of changing substantially anytime soon.

On the other hand, the pace of technology is pretty rapid, so it's anybody's guess what things will be like in another 5 years.

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Terry Lynn-Stevens
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1081
From: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Registered: Dec 2012

posted 12-03-2013 10:24 PM

quote: Justin Hamaker
Until one of the studios is willing to take a gamble on doing a day and date release for a major title, it's unlikely this is going to happen. So far we have not seen any day and date DVD releases (to the best of my knowledge), and day and date VOD has been limited to small marginal films. Furthermore, the DVD window seems to have more or less stabilized at about 3 months for most releases.

Well, Cineplex has already sort of started something that could lead to day and date release. When you see select movies at Cineplex you can purchase the digital copy immediately, you just don't the movie until it is released on video, but the sale is already there. They call it Superticket and the next movie is for The Hobbit, I don't think Superticket will last long.

quote: Justin Hamaker
Large screen formats seem to be growing in popularity, but I don't think we're seeing any particular push to increase screen size. If anything, I think new theatres would be more focused on the quantity of auditoriums, and only a couple of those would have large screens with the latest sound formats.

I think there has been a push to increase screen size, most of the theatres in my area have gone from a wide common height screen to no masking wall to ceiling IMAX style screens. These screens really suck.

quote: Justin Hamaker
I think it's logical to have a movie theatre anchor a shopping center or entertainment destination

By 2012, luxury or premium experiences will be more common place. Cineplex served 71 million customers in 2018 and 30% paid anywhere from $15-$20 for AVX, IMAX or VIP screenings. This segment barely existed in 2008 and it was only really IMAX that had this premium segment in my territory.

The next few years, Cineplex will get that percentage closer to 50%

Luxury, food delivered to your seats, nicer seats and most important, reserved seating will increase demand for these types of theatres. And you will get all this with no masking lol.

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Jock Blakley
Expert Film Handler

Posts: 218
From: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Registered: Oct 2011

posted 12-03-2013 10:26 PM

I didn't realise this was an old article until I read that by 2018 "some releases might be digital-only" [Razz]

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Jesse Skeen
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1517
From: Sacramento, CA
Registered: Aug 2000

posted 12-17-2013 03:14 AM

Howzabout this: At least one theater chain using one movie (worked out in advance with the distributor) will try showing a commercial break in the middle.

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Terry Lynn-Stevens
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1081
From: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Registered: Dec 2012

posted 12-17-2013 08:47 AM

I can't see a commercial in the middle of a movie ever happening.

The biggest trend I see happening going forward will be the continued emergence of premium priced theatres, a VIP concept with reserved seating and an 18+ only admission policy is certainly on the horizon and VIP will dominate all other formats.

Reserve seating will become more and more popular and eventually we will get to a point where there will be all reserve seating theatres (I think this already happen a some places)

I think IMAX is at the point where it really can't add too many more screens but I can see some theatres with dual IMAX screens working. IMAX is part of the future that is for sure.

I really hope someone gets 4K advertising going. I really don't see the chains making the difference between 2k and 4k known and that is going to really suck for movie fans.

Dolby Atmos is going to fizzle out in the next five years, it might stick around but it is something I am not too concerned about. Going to the movies to see a movie in Dolby or Dolby Atmos is something the newer younger generation really don't care about. The other problem is that generic DCP sound is pretty good these days anyways.

35mm is pretty much done. We might get the occasional 35mm hyped up release. I think we will see some 35mm presentations of Interstellar etc in a similar way to the 70mm release of the The Master.

15/70 will sadly be done and never used again. Hunger Games Catching proved that aside from The Dark Knight and Dark Knight Rises, nobody cares about the sequences that were shot in 15/70. There was practically no hype whatsoever about the 15/70 sequences.

RealD will continue to be around but I see Dolby giving up on Dolby 3D in the same way SDDS gave up.

If one of the studios can buy THX, we might see a comeback which would be good. Maybe Disney can buy them? If THX does comeback it likely won't be the same, it will be more to certify premium large screen theatres. No masking will be a standard [Frown]

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 12-17-2013 04:20 PM

Terry, you personally may not care about things like Dolby Atmos or 15-perf 70mm filmed content. Don't speak for everyone else.

Plenty of viewers care about film projection. Unfortunately far too many theaters have left it behind. There will be at least one more significant 15-perf 70mm release, Interstellar. After that, who knows? The same goes for movies shot on film. If too many productions go digital then Kodak won't be able to keep making 35mm negative stock (or even stay in business for that matter).

I think the proverbial genie is out of the bottle regarding next-generation audio formats. You can't pin a fancy label on "generic" LPCM 5.1/7.1, but Auro 3D and Atmos are brand names that have the potential to build traction. Both formats are getting support from movie studios, but Atmos is gaining a good lead in title numbers.

Regarding 4K, home theater may finally be the thing that causes 4K to gel in the minds of at least some consumers. Over the next 5 years 4K HDTV sets will become standard at the high end and creep down into more affordable TV model levels, just like 120Hz and 3D have done.

I don't count on IMAX to make any noise about 4K, even after they start installing their laser-based digital projectors. They want customers to go on with the illusion that all IMAX theaters are the same. The same can be said for IMAX' "large format" rivals.

Regarding a studio buying THX, that isn't going to work. The movie studio ties between DTS and SDDS worked like a double-edged sword in the early days of the digital sound format war. A movie studio really has little if anything to gain in buying THX. And very few movie theaters want to support THX, much less actually comply with the quality standards THX set forth 30 years ago.

quote: Louis Bornwasser
Studios will sell direct; no need for Netflix.

The movie studios can try selling movie streaming direct to customers, but I don't think the idea would work. Having several different movie streaming apps, one for each major studio and possibly other apps for minor/indie studios sounds very impractical. One or two movie streaming apps is a lot easier to manage than several.

If anything, I think we'll eventually see serious consolidation in the movie streaming market. Some companies are going to buy out competitors to simplify the market if they can.

quote: Mike Blakesley
On the other hand, the pace of technology is pretty rapid, so it's anybody's guess what things will be like in another 5 years.

A lot of current, 2K d-cinema equipment will be hitting the end of its life span over the next 5 years. We'll see a lot more 4K projectors. I doubt if projector resolution levels will go any higher within 5 years even though companies like Red are making cameras that can shoot at 5K and 6K resolutions. Maybe we'll see a new breed of security measures that will introduce new headaches.

quote: Jesse Skeen
At least one theater chain using one movie (worked out in advance with the distributor) will try showing a commercial break in the middle.

My feelings on such a stunt: they can show a commercial in the middle of the movie if the admission price is free and the concession items cost the same as they do at a convenience store. If I want TV commercials breaking up the movie, I'll just watch something at home on TNT, AMC, FX, etc. and eat my own store-bought food.

It's bad enough most theaters now have a pre-pre-show loaded with TV commercials while the house lights are still up. I prefer movie theaters that have curtains closed and playing nothing more than house music until the pre-show starts. That doesn't generate as much advertising money for the investors, but it does make for a better movie-going experience.

As it stands, movie distributors are very hesitant to break up a really long movie with an intermission even though the bladders of many audience members might appreciate it.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 12-17-2013 04:33 PM

Agreed with the last sentence especially. If NATO wants to do something productive, they should work on getting a mandatory intermission built into any movie over, say, 130 minutes. Make it optional so the theaters who don't want to stop the film don't have to. It would be a simple matter of splitting the DCP into two parts, and creating a simple "Intermission" tag. Can't be any more difficult than making 127 different versions of movies the way they're doing now.

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Terry Lynn-Stevens
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1081
From: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Registered: Dec 2012

posted 12-17-2013 07:50 PM

I forgot to add a few:

1. High Frame Rate will become more popular, Avatar 2, 3, and 4 will put High Frame Rate (HFR) in the public eye for the movie going public. James Cameron will be the one who gets it right and more directors will follow.

2. Rep cinema might be a thing of the past.

3. Regal will enter the Canadian market to challenge the 75% market share that Cineplex currently owns.

4. D-Box will be officially out of business.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 12-17-2013 11:13 PM

quote: Terry Lynn-Stevens
Avatar 2, 3, and 4 will put High Frame Rate (HFR) in the public eye

I think there will be far more "hope" that Avatar 2, 3 and 4 will re-energize 3-D (the way Gravity did) than there will be for HFR.

My prediction: Coke Freestyle machines will be ubiquitous in some chain cinemas, but will all still produce shitty drinks.

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James Westbrook
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1133
From: Lubbock, Texas, Usa
Registered: Mar 2006

posted 12-18-2013 09:24 AM

I was pessimistic back in 2008...working at Wal*Mart? [puke]

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 12-18-2013 10:04 AM

Without enough of a decent story there won't be much of anything after Avatar 2. If James Cameron is going to shoot all three sequels at once Avatar 3 and Avatar 4 could be playing to a lot of empty auditoriums. James Cameron is really putting himself out on a limb, raising seemingly impossible expectations by comparing this trilogy of sequels with The Godfather movies. Honestly, I'm not sure what could be done to follow up the first Avatar movie. The story on that one was thin & derivative enough, but it did very well on novelty and spectacle. I thought pretty much everything that could be mined out of that subject was used up in Avatar. James Cameron really has his work cut out for him in having to flesh out three more of those movies.

Overall, the topic of HFR 3D will probably be an afterthought. The primary question on most people's minds is "will these Avatar sequels be any good or just plain suck?"

HFR 3D will desperately need the help of other types of movie content in order to survive, much less proliferate to a larger number of theaters. Concert movies would be a natural fit for HFR 3D. It would work good for sports too, if only HFR 3D could be delivered live.

I don't know enough about the financials of the D-BOX company to make an intelligent prediction on whether the technology will stick around. A decent number of event/spectacle movies are supporting D-BOX. More theaters seem to be installing it. My guess is the company will stay around as long as they're not drowning in debt.

Repertory cinema isn't a very big market to begin with; it seems to do alright in really large cities. Such theaters also tend to show a mix of art house/indie fare. Some of these theaters are situated in art museums or arts districts. As long as such a theater has been able to convert to d-cinema I see no reason preventing it from surviving many years into the future.

I think we could see quite a few closures in mainstream multiplex cinemas. As prices rise and customer expectations rise the "plain" multiplex theater is going to come under increasing threat. I've seen some small town theaters in my region adapt by offering low ticket and refreshment prices.

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Dick Vaughan
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1032
From: Bradford, West Yorkshire, UK
Registered: Jul 2000

posted 12-18-2013 10:17 AM

With the introduction of new technologies and theatres being operated by unscrupulous companies it will be necessary to have warning notices posted on all projection room doors such as the one shown below.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 12-18-2013 02:08 PM

quote: Bobby Henderson
I've seen some small town theaters in my region adapt by offering low ticket and refreshment prices.

That seems like a bad strategy to me. A better idea would be to start a very visible remodel or upgrade, raise the prices (if necessary) to pay for it, and be very vocal about what's happening and why the prices are what they are.

Customers love it when they see their money being re-invested in a local business. My own theatre is proof of that. If we had tried to raise attendance by dropping the prices, we'd have made less money and probably been out of business by now.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 12-18-2013 02:59 PM

I guess some of it depends on the community, as well as what the theater was charging for admission prior to the conversion. The Liberty Theatre in Carnegie, OK converted its screen to digital and even put in a couple RealD systems. They charge $4 standard admission plus $2 for 3D. That's pretty cheap. Maybe they're able to get away with those prices with good attendance levels.

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