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Author Topic: On Demand Video While Movie Is Still In Theatres Start Next Month Scott Jentsch Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1061 From: New Berlin, WI, USA Registered: Apr 2003 posted 04-06-2011 02:30 PM                        I think that there's a good chance that this was a trial balloon that may not see the light of day (at least not right now). Keep in mind that none of this has been announced officially. But if it does actually happen, there are only two options that I see for theaters: 1. Not play any movies that will be part of this program. This has to be done on a wide enough scale to impact the studios, so the big chains are going to have to stand up and draw that line in the sand. There has to be a financial disincentive for the studios to get them to back away from such a plan. Of course, this could backfire should the line be drawn, the studio goes ahead anyway, and it still meets their expectations. Those theaters will have proven themselves insignificant. 2. Theaters must rise the challenge. If this is going to be the new reality, movie theaters will have 60 days, 90 days (whatever it ends up being) to get the most revenue from each movie in the time they have. (This should be the case already, as how many first-run theaters are still playing movies after 60 days?) I'm sure that many organizations represented here do not fall into this category, but I think many theaters tend to treat their customers like cattle to be run through the gates as quickly as possible, while extracting as much money from the process as possible. There is little that's impressive about going to the average multiplex. I've often compared it to eating at McDonalds. They set the expectation that you aren't going to have a great experience (if you're over the age of 6), but you will get a moderately acceptable product for your money on a pretty consistent basis. In this alternative, theaters will have to work harder to be relevant not only to the studios, but to their customers. That's the primary problem with this announcement, in my opinion, and it's the ugly secret that NATO doesn't want to talk about. If given the choice, a large number of moviegoers would not choose to attend a movie theater to see a movie. The good thing is, that if you solve that problem, it also solves the problem with the studios, because now the theaters will have a more significant impact on their bottom line (directly and indirectly). Theaters win by getting more business. Customers win by having a better experience for their money.  |  IP: Logged Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 04-06-2011 03:05 PM                        quote: Scott Jentsch the ugly secret that NATO doesn't want to talk about. If given the choice, a large number of moviegoers would not choose to attend a movie theater to see a movie. I think this goes back to my post awhile ago where I said people (many, many of them) don't give a crap about quality. They just want to see the movie they want to see. If they have to go to a theatre, they'll go. If it's available in their house, that's easier, so they'll stay home. It won't matter if it's on a 12" RCA TV, they'll be able to lay on their couch and sleep through the last half of the show. If it causes a lot of bad theatres to clean up their act though, that's great....but I don't think it would matter to some people if you were passing out free $10 bills at the door, if they could see the movie they want in their house, they'd just stay home because that's the easiest thing to do.  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 04-06-2011 05:31 PM                     This is also why it is so seemingly easy to predict how destructive it would be for theaters if the theatrical release window is severely reduced or eliminated. If people have the option to watch the same movie at home versus seeing it play in a theater the overwhelming majority of people will just see it at home. Theaters would lose too many customers in order to stay in business. It wouldn't matter how opulent the theater made its environment or how great a job it did with presentation quality. Too many customers would stay at home. Far too often customers continue to visit shitty theaters when they have better alternatives a few miles away. I have said it before how the Central Mall 12 here in Lawton has significantly better attendance levels than the Carmike theater on the West side of town. I hate the mall theater. I refuse to go there. But lots of people keep going there despite the lackluster presentation quality and all the disruptive teens. They complain about the theater yet keep visiting it. They keep doing this because the theater is in the mall. Whatever. If these people aren't willing to drive 5 miles across town to a better theater I sure won't expect them to drive an hour up to Moore to see the show in the state's best movie theater (the Warren 14). And if the movies were released "day in date" at theaters and on home video simultaneously they would all watch at home. Netflix streaming has allowed more people to figure driving to the video store is too much of a pain in the ass. Some people might consider what I've said on this topic to be a little too much on the "doom and gloom" side. But I think my "what if" prediction is on target. The death spiral currently underway at big video store chains due to Redbox and Netflix is a good hint at how rapid the market can turn from good to very bad. The bean counters in Hollywood are betting business will go on as usual and they'll make even more money with this VOD scenario. I think the plan could bite them in the ass. And once that chain of events unfolds with theater failures Hollywood will be powerless to stop the disaster.  |  IP: Logged Eric Robinson Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 538 From: Santa Rosa, CA Registered: Jan 2005 posted 04-07-2011 02:23 AM                     Its funny that the movie companies are all paranoid about someone recording a video of a movie in a theatre auditorium but they suddenly don't care if people do it at home?  |  IP: Logged Jonathan M. Crist Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 531 From: Hershey, PA, USA Registered: Apr 2000 posted 04-08-2011 10:28 AM                     Actually from what I understand the 60 day window was a compromise. Originally the studios wanted only 30 days. Want to bet it will soom morph down into thirty days?  |  IP: Logged Frank Angel Film God Posts: 5305 From: Brooklyn NY USA Registered: Dec 1999 posted 04-09-2011 07:17 AM                        quote: Bobby Henderson The bean counters in Hollywood are betting business will go on as usual and they'll make even more money with this VOD scenario. This might work IF the numbers work out for them; but really, that is a very questionable theory. It seems the majority of people will choose convenience over quality more often than not and theatres for a long time have gotten the almost universal reputation that, even when they convenient, they not a desirable place to watch movies. "I hate going to the movies." is too prevalent to expect that the VOP will not be a desirable alternative as soon as it becomes made available to the general public. But here's the thing about the numbers studio bean counters seem to be coming up with that are WAY out of wack and need a serious reality check. VOP can't possibly make up for theatrical ticket revenue that will be lost in almost any scenario other than the single person or couple paying the $30 to see a first run VOP release. Those would be one or two tickets lost to the theatres and which would be a gain for the studio. But what happens when a family of three, four or five or worse, a party in a college dorm or just a bunch of family friends getting together to watch that $30 movie? Not only does the exhibitor, but the studio looses money hand over fist in almost all scenarios with VOP. Now multiply that across the country and even putting the exhibitor aside, there is no way this can be a positive economic model for the studios either. What it can easily become is a pox on both their houses. And let's not forget what Eric rightly brought up -- how will this impact the piracy issue? You know that 6 BILLION dollars loss to piracy the MPAA is always whining about. Well, how easy will it be to get pristine copies out to the bootleg market now in only 60 days after theatrical and even BEFORE DVD release? As easily as pressing RECORD. Not only can this impact theatre attendance, but DVD sales, video rentals....in short, EVERY ancillary non-theatrical market as well. And it will pretty much put an end to MPAA's constantly inferring that it's the off-screen-camcorder-in-the-trenchcoat copies that are made in theatres which are the cause of the piracy problem; well, who are they going to blame it on after VOD debutes?!  |  IP: Logged Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 04-09-2011 09:32 AM                        I think "piracy" is the least of the worries. The pirate copies always surface on Day 1, not Day 61. By that time everyone who wants a pirate copy has got one.  |  IP: Logged

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