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» Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE   » Community   » The Afterlife   » DVD vs BR-DVD -- live together 4 how long? (Page 2)

 
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Author Topic: DVD vs BR-DVD -- live together 4 how long?
Steve Guttag
We forgot the crackers Gromit!!!

Posts: 12814
From: Annapolis, MD
Registered: Dec 1999

- posted 10-22-2008 07:57 PM      Profile for Steve Guttag   Email Steve Guttag   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Bobby,

You WAY over estimate joe-blow consumer's taste in sound...it was the number of channels...not how they are obtained. The improved quality will always only apply to a statistically small percentage of people. You can tell them all you want about lossless, higher bit rates...etc....all they know/care about (en mass) is 5.1 Even if they have "EX"...how it is obtained is of no concern.

If mere bit-rate was of concern...SACD would have done better than it did...standard CDs still reign supreme in sales of recorded audio media in stores. I guess arguably...lesser quality MP3s are outselling standard CDs.

As for DCinema...It is defined as a 16-channel PCM medium...they have defined the channels that we know about but there is no definition, that I have seen on how a 5.1 theatre would play a larger channel feature (just what is the mix down?). 5.1 is just the least common denominator. All servers that I have laid my hands on are outputting potentially 8 discrete channels though only 6 are used. All cinema processors that have AES audio inputs for DCinema have 8 discrete channels in...again, only the 5.1 format seems to be used...it is NOT intrinsic to the DCinema format...it is just the least common denominator.

Steve

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

- posted 10-22-2008 08:55 PM      Profile for Bobby Henderson   Email Bobby Henderson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Blu-ray isn't geared as a common denominator format. The fact the lossless, uncompressed and high res audio tracks found on Blu-ray exceed the capabilities of most home theater sound systems is a good thing. The Blu-ray software disc is a single inventory retail item. Why stick a flawed audio track on it when there's ample room for something better? Anyone who spends many thousands of dollars on high end speakers and amplifiers should get a lot more out of a lossless Dolby TrueHD track than someone who merely bought a $500 home theater in a box.

The entertainment and technology media doesn't give the general public enough credit for having decent taste in technology. Those journalists believe everyone is perfectly happy with lossy compressed, iTunes style audio, regardless of the fact music CDs are still being sold a full decade after the whole MP3/AAC craze got started.

quote: Steve Guttag
If mere bit-rate was of concern...SACD would have done better than it did...standard CDs still reign supreme in sales of recorded audio media in stores. I guess arguably...lesser quality MP3s are outselling standard CDs.
SACD and DVA-A both failed to be embraced by mainstream consumers because Sony and Time/Warner provided nothing more than pitifully bad efforts to promote their respective next-gen audio formats.

Why should joe-blow consumer be expected to buy a high priced music playback device when the only titles he sees available for it is 30 year old classic rock albums, obscure jazz discs and classical music? It's not that joe-blow consumer lacks interest in high resolution audio. Joe-blow simply is not going buy music he doesn't like regardless of the bit rate and sampling frequency.

Both Sony and Warner Bros have major music distribution businesses. Why couldn't they do some arm twisting and make their most popular signed artists produce albums with high resolution audio? They just didn't bother. In response, joe-blow didn't bother with SACD and DVD-A either.

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Scott Norwood
Film God

Posts: 8146
From: Boston, MA. USA (1774.21 miles northeast of Dallas)
Registered: Jun 99

- posted 10-22-2008 09:02 PM      Profile for Scott Norwood   Author's Homepage   Email Scott Norwood   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I'm pretty pessimistic that the average viewer even cares about this stuff. These are people who watch 4x3 SD programming stretched out to fill a 16x9 screen and think that they are watching HD. They are the same people whose DVD players are connected to their TV speakers. They are also the ones who don't complain about damaged prints and generally poor presentation at movie theatres.

Question for Bobby: how many people do you know that have quality home stereo systems? How many people do you know who own ipods?

I wish that the situation were different, but the average viewer/listener seems to favor convenience over quality.

My personal expectation is that low-quality downloads (which may have HD resolution, but will likely be overcompressed and overly edge-enhanced) will become popular long before Blu-ray becomes a mainstream product.

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Joe Redifer
You need a beating today

Posts: 12859
From: Denver, Colorado
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- posted 10-22-2008 09:09 PM      Profile for Joe Redifer   Author's Homepage   Email Joe Redifer   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
The HD picture will always be the main selling point for Blu-ray. Most people won't likely go out and purchase all of the movies they already own on DVD for the newer format, but they will likely purchase NEW movies that way and if they have super-favorites they may repurchase them as well.

The new Batman will sell a lot of Blu-ray players, at least 46 of 'em!

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

- posted 10-22-2008 09:46 PM      Profile for Bobby Henderson   Email Bobby Henderson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Iron Man set new sales records for Blu-ray. Even though the install base of standalone BD players is still relatively small, more than 500,000 copies of Iron Man sold during its first week of availability. I think The Dark Knight will more than double that number at the very least.

HD video download services like AppleTV, VUDU, etc. have a limited window of opportunity. And I think they're going to lose to Blu-ray. Even if the quality was equal to Blu-ray (it isn't), the pricing isn't competitive with Blu-ray rentals at video stores.

I haven't been bothering with the much touted 1080p VOD service from Dish Network (DirecTV added a similar feature this week) because I'm not paying $6.99 for a 24 hour rental when I can get 5 day or 7 day rentals for $4.99 or $5.99 from two video stores not far from my home.

quote: Scott Norwood
I'm pretty pessimistic that the average viewer even cares about this stuff. These are people who watch 4x3 SD programming stretched out to fill a 16x9 screen and think that they are watching HD.
Thankfully, Blu-ray isn't locked down to the "quality level" that particular crowd is accustomed to viewing.

quote: Scott Norwood
They are the same people whose DVD players are connected to their TV speakers. They are also the ones who don't complain about damaged prints and generally poor presentation at movie theatres.
They're too busy obsessively texting away on their phones to bother noticing what is happening on the screen.
[Razz]

quote: Scott Norwood
Question for Bobby: how many people do you know that have quality home stereo systems? How many people do you know who own ipods?
I do know more people who own iPods than own very good or great quality home theater systems. But what is that supposed to prove? That there is no market or justification for high resolution audio? Why should the minority of high quality stereo owners (still a significant sized group) be penalized for the buying habits of everyone else?

Blu-ray actually has the capability of delivering a one-size fits all music disc. There's enough capacity to store a complete album in multiple audio formats, channel configurations and quality levels. BD Live or a feature resident on the disc could copy MP3 and AAC files to a flash memory card attached to the player so the customer could play the same songs on their portable music player. Apple surely is never going to be able to offer anything like that.

Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails is one person who truly "gets it," when it comes to understanding what customers want in music files. He has made his last two albums available for download, but he has provided a wide variety of format types and quality levels -everything from lossy AAC and MP3 files to huge 24/96 quality files for high end stereo systems. He's even provided multi-track session files for people to load into audio editing applications.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

- posted 10-23-2008 01:25 AM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Bobby - my point was backed up in others' posts above better than I could have said it. The fact is, and always will be, that MOST PEOPLE don't care about much on their TV except that they can get the channel they want, see an acceptable picture and hear some stuff coming out of all the speakers. You could play mono through all the speakers and a lot of people would think it was just fine. I was in home electronics retail for 20+ years and I can vouch for that.

I'm still selling car audio and it's the same there -- with about 90% of people, as long as it has a lot of bass, they're happy.

A $300 million blockbuster movie setting new sales records for BD is no big deal. Since more players are always being sold, sales figures are going to grow too. Every blockbuster coming down the pike is going to set a new sales peak, because there are more consumers with units to play them on. This isn't rocket science, it's consumer electronics.

quote:
Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails is one person who truly "gets it," when it comes to understanding what customers want in music files. [snip] He's even provided multi-track session files for people to load into audio editing applications.
Sure he gets it - because he can afford to. No matter how many downloads are made and copied, he'd still be a multi-millionaire.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

- posted 10-23-2008 09:11 AM      Profile for Bobby Henderson   Email Bobby Henderson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
The point is Trent Reznor understands the public is far from unanimous on liking all their music in severely compressed iTunes packaging. Not everybody likes their music, or movies, served up the same way.

quote: Mike Blakesley
The fact is, and always will be, that MOST PEOPLE don't care about much on their TV except that they can get the channel they want, see an acceptable picture and hear some stuff coming out of all the speakers.
If new technology had to cater to only what "most people" want you would not see any progress at all in new technology.

I've seen the same "this new stuff isn't needed" argument made about DVD when it was brand new. Joe six pack isn't going to buy it; he's going to stick with his VHS tapes. That prediction turned out to be 100% dead wrong. Some said DVD wouldn't succeed due to bad economic conditions. DVD weathered the dot-com bust, 9-11-01 tragedy and following recession and became a huge success anyway.

The same bets against progress were made in the late 1980s and early 1990s when new generations of computers and software were replacing the old. "No one needs to upgrade to this new stuff," was the constant refrain. After a few more years those pundits finally got the hint that constant change was here to stay in that industry.

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Michael Barry
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 584
From: Sydney, NSW, Australia
Registered: Nov 1999

- posted 10-23-2008 10:01 AM      Profile for Michael Barry   Email Michael Barry   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
The way I see it, there are two factors that will eventually lead to Blu Ray becoming the dominant format:

1) Manufacturers will stop making SD-DVD players, so the only players you will be able to buy are Blu Ray players;

2) Similarly, the only TVs you can buy now are HDTVs (on a recent shopping trip this was certainly the case).

Put these two factors together, and it's only a matter of time before Blu Ray takes the lead.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

- posted 10-23-2008 10:07 AM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Bobby Henderson
If new technology had to cater to only what "most people" want you would not see any progress at all in new technology.
That is true, but the road is strewn with the carcasses of dozens of new whiz-bang gadgets and formats that were the "next big thing" but failed because they didn't provide a list of benefits that Mr and Mrs. Joe Sixpack the Plumber would want. DVD is one of the exceptions because it DID provide such a list. Blu-ray does not, it's as simple as that. But Michael Barry's right, eventually BR will be all you can buy and then it'll be the default format.

quote: Bobby Henderson
The same bets against progress were made in the late 1980s and early 1990s when new generations of computers and software were replacing the old. "No one needs to upgrade to this new stuff," was the constant refrain.
And often those arguments make sense. Look what's happening right now with Windows Vista. It is a flop with virtually everyone - but it probably contains technology that will be helpful in a 'better' version to come later.

I'm not betting against progress -- I'm just sayin' that VHS->DVD was a much more consumer-friendly transition than DVD->Blu-ray is.

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Mark J. Marshall
Film God

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From: New Castle, DE, USA
Registered: Aug 2002

- posted 10-23-2008 10:10 AM      Profile for Mark J. Marshall     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Bobby Henderson
Blu-ray isn't geared as a common denominator format. The fact the lossless, uncompressed and high res audio tracks found on Blu-ray exceed the capabilities of most home theater sound systems is a good thing. The Blu-ray software disc is a single inventory retail item. Why stick a flawed audio track on it when there's ample room for something better? Anyone who spends many thousands of dollars on high end speakers and amplifiers should get a lot more out of a lossless Dolby TrueHD track than someone who merely bought a $500 home theater in a box.
quote: Bobby Henderson
If new technology had to cater to only what "most people" want you would not see any progress at all in new technology.
Keep those things in mind when trying to decide if Blu-Ray should create 3D by outputting a single stream field sequential signal or two simultaneous full 1080P full bandwidth HD signals.

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Joe Redifer
You need a beating today

Posts: 12859
From: Denver, Colorado
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- posted 10-23-2008 10:30 AM      Profile for Joe Redifer   Author's Homepage   Email Joe Redifer   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Here's the way I see it:

Old people = Frightened by Blu-ray. Say they don't need it. They don't need anything. Scared and confused by things that move or use electricity.

New people = Love Blu-ray. Purchase new phones every year to have the latest gadgets. At the rate the old people reproduced, there are more new people than old people. And the reproduction isn't slowing down at all, so there will be even newer people.

In other words, we'll soon be bitching about how Blu-ray was "the good old days".

Bottom line: LaserDisc! That's the format that brought the same conveniences except for size years and years ahead of DVD. Nobody bought it. DVD was not a huge jump up from LaserDisc at all. In fact when DVD was introduced, it was much worse. If all of those non-rewinding, chapter searching, special feature conveniences were such a huge reason DVD took off, then LaserDisc would have as well. It boils down to ONLY ONE THING. Price. That's it. Nothing else.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

- posted 10-23-2008 12:45 PM      Profile for Bobby Henderson   Email Bobby Henderson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Blu-ray players are still somewhat expensive, although there's a few good models available for under $300. Best Buy dropped the price on their Insignia-branded Profile 1.1 player to $199. We'll probably see some $149 players on Black Friday. Lower priced Chinese-made players are due to hit the market in 2009. I think it's safe to say BD players $99 and under will be available or even pretty common 18-24 months from now.

quote: Mike Blakesley
That is true, but the road is strewn with the carcasses of dozens of new whiz-bang gadgets and formats that were the "next big thing" but failed because they didn't provide a list of benefits that Mr and Mrs. Joe Sixpack the Plumber would want. DVD is one of the exceptions because it DID provide such a list. Blu-ray does not, it's as simple as that.
DVD is only standard definition. Blu-ray is high definition. That's a major difference. The Feb. 2009 cut-off of analog TV broadcast signals is forcing a lot of people into upgrading to HDTV. Like I said before, once viewers get used to HD quality video most don't want to bother with SD. DVD is only SD. And Blu-ray has the best HD video quality one can view at home.

quote: Mike Blakesley
DVD is one of the exceptions because it DID provide such a list. Blu-ray does not, it's as simple as that. But Michael Barry's right, eventually BR will be all you can buy and then it'll be the default format.
That's sort of what happened with DVD. Hollywood began reducing the supply of new movies onto VHS and then eventually stopped releasing new movies on the tape format altogether. You can still buy a new VHS tape deck in some stores today, but it's been a good 5 years or more since I've seen any VHS tapes for rent in local video stores or seen VHS movies for sale in any retail store.

The transition to Blu-ray could actually happen faster. Prices on players are dropping faster than they did with DVD. All Blu-ray players can play DVDs as well. So when Joe six-pack's cheap DVD player breaks, the replacement will just happen to play Blu-ray movies too. Joe six-pack can play his old DVDs on a Blu-ray player. However, at least as far as I'm concerned my own DVD collection is beginning to gather dust. Many of those old discs are going to go bye bye at a yard sale soon.

It's anyone's guess when Hollywood studios will stop releasing new movies on DVD. By 2012 I think DVD will at least have started its disappearing act at video stores, if not sooner via factors like movie download services. Lots of people insist downloads are a major threat to Blu-ray. If they can pose a threat, they'll do more to threaten DVD. You can download DVD quality video a hell of a lot faster than Blu-ray quality video.

quote: Mark J. Marshall
Keep those things in mind when trying to decide if Blu-Ray should create 3D by outputting a single stream field sequential signal or two simultaneous full 1080P full bandwidth HD signals.
It doesn't matter to me how they do 3D on Blu-ray, just so long as it is full color and can work in the form factor of flat panel televisions. I think it's safe to say Joe six-pack is not going to go to the trouble & expense of installing and aligning pairs of HD video projectors just for 3D.

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David Stambaugh
Film God

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From: Eugene, Oregon
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- posted 10-23-2008 02:32 PM      Profile for David Stambaugh   Author's Homepage   Email David Stambaugh   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote:
Old people = Frightened by Blu-ray. New people = Love Blu-ray.
Well then there's the people in the middle who have gone from Beta to VHS to LaserDisc to DVD (and maybe S-VHS and D-VHS along the way, and MiniDisc, SACD, HD-DVD, and whatever other formats I'm forgetting) and see our favorite movies released over and over and over again in new editions, directors' cuts, unrated versions, remastered, etc. and are a little tired of this game, and feel like we're being manipulated and therefore maybe we resist jumping into yet another new format, and meanwhile more people are getting broadband all the time and downloading HD content becomes more feasible. Not to mention hell, there are already Blu-ray discs being re-released in new and improved remastered versions!

I'm just saying, when Joe Sixpak-Plumber is browsing players and discs at retail stores and sees movies like "Beerfest" for $30, it's not a slam-dunk. Most everyone knows you can buy movies for less online, but impressions are formed by what you see at BB and CC (the latter not for much longer though) and resistance may develop.

BD's improved audio seems like a weak argument for 95% of consumers, since most people think lossy Dolby sounds great on DVD players (and in fact it DOES sound great). And how many people will actually deploy 7.1? I couldn't do 7.1 in my living room if I wanted to, just not physically feasible.

Having said all that, I expect to pick up a BD player any day now. [Smile]

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

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From: Forsyth, Montana
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- posted 10-23-2008 11:59 PM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Joe Redifer
If all of those non-rewinding, chapter searching, special feature conveniences were such a huge reason DVD took off, then LaserDisc would have as well. It boils down to ONLY ONE THING. Price. That's it. Nothing else.
Naaah. It was a lot more than that. Laserdisks were huge and inconvenient to handle vs. videotapes; you had to stop the movie in the middle to turn it over; the players were expensive compared to VHS; the format didn't have the support of ALL the studios (or the electronics manufacturers either) because some of them stupidly went with that crappy RCA system. Stores didn't want to carry 3 different formats of software and players...they were already burnt from having to carry 3 formats of music (LP, cassette and CD coexisted longer than VHS and DVD did).

And then there was the recording issue. We never had Laserdisk in our store, but we had that RCA thing....the first question out of most people's mouths was, "How do you record?" Then after hearing the answer, they would buy a VHS machine. Of course that was when home video was more about time-shifting than it was about movie-watching. DVD had a better feature set than Laserdisk but mostly, it had better timing.

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Joe Redifer
You need a beating today

Posts: 12859
From: Denver, Colorado
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- posted 10-24-2008 02:07 AM      Profile for Joe Redifer   Author's Homepage   Email Joe Redifer   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
DVD couldn't record when it came out.

Anyway, I'd say that DVD is less of a jump from LaserDisc overall (excluding price, of course) than Blu-ray is from DVD. Remember, when DVD came out you had to flip sides on a lot of movies as well, and there were no automatic side-flippin' machines like existed for LaserDisc. The picture quality was also noticeably worse than LD. I'm sure the same people that whine about Blu-ray these days whined about DVD back in the "good old days when them damn kids stayed off my lawn!" The only advantage DVD had at the time was that it was smaller and had a slightly lower price than LD.

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