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Author Topic: AMC Signs $315,000,000 Deal with Sony 4k Digital Steve Guttag We forgot the crackers Gromit!!! Posts: 12814 From: Annapolis, MD Registered: Dec 1999 posted 04-10-2009 06:56 PM                     Bingo! However...to drive the point home even more... If EVERY theatre tomorrow installed a new DLP DCinema projector (including the ones that already have them)...that would be 137,000 x 3 chips per machine or 411,000 chips this year. Now what? You have 100% of the market...and on that steller year, you didn't hit your nut. Soooo, it dies instantly on the following year where new-builds may cause 1000 chips to be sold....after a time it may settle on 3000 or so chips a year to handle failures, new-builds and trade ups. In short, it can't support itself. No matter how many people tap dance around it, DLP can't support itself and can't be done on small scale profitably. LCoS has some promise as it is a much cheaper technology to do. I also feel that ultimately, it will not be a projection technology but more of the screen being the light source as technology so allows. This would apply to homes, theatres billboards...etc...it would not need to be technology specifically for cinema.  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 04-10-2009 09:46 PM                     LED is dominating the cutting edge of the billboard business. It has brightness levels that stand up to sunlight. No traditional back-lit screen technology can do that. LED also has another advantage. It isn't confined to two dimensional shapes. LED-based displays can curve around broad contours, spiral and a lot of other crazy stuff. Unfortunately, RGB LED clusters have far too coarse a pitch between pixel centers to function in any traditional TV screen or movie screen viewing environment. And the cost per pixel is too high for that as well. They're great for billboards, scoreboard jumbotrons, etc. But for true HD quality viewing you're going to spend a giant sized wad of money for something LED based. I really want to visit the new Texas Stadium in Arlington to see that new 600 ton jumbotron hanged from the ceiling directly over the football field. It stretches from one 20 yard line to the other 20 yard line. The two large LED displays have better than 1080p pixel counts. And there's two decent sized LED displays facing each goal post. Really impressive. But very expensive.  |  IP: Logged Mark Gulbrandsen Resident Trollmaster Posts: 16657 From: Music City Registered: Jun 99 posted 04-11-2009 04:12 PM                     quote: Steve Guttag Now what? Theaters are still being built and manufacturers come out with new models that require more chips. There are other areas where 1.2" and .98 dlp is also being used that you obviously have not thought about. Mark  |  IP: Logged Steve Guttag We forgot the crackers Gromit!!! Posts: 12814 From: Annapolis, MD Registered: Dec 1999 posted 04-11-2009 05:51 PM                     Oh no...I have thought about them...large venue is about it and that is not enough sales to keep it going...I was merely pointing out how insignificant Cinema is to a semiconductor manufacturer's needs. I also allowed for new-builds/upgrades. Its market too tiny.  |  IP: Logged Mark Gulbrandsen Resident Trollmaster Posts: 16657 From: Music City Registered: Jun 99 posted 04-11-2009 07:19 PM                     Actually when you stop and think about it the DLP design is quite mature for any semiconductor design. It wouldn't require much R&D at this point to keep the few software updates and so on going so the downsizing makes perfect sense. As for the longevity of an operating DLP chip... only time will tell there... no one really knows how long a DLP chip itself actually lasts. T.I. shutting down things doesn't worry me a bit because enough chips can easily be produced and shelved by both T.I. and projector manufacturers to last a couple of decades. The thing you obviously do miss is the spin off technology a thing like DLP produces that allows advancements in other semiconductor areas. And for that alone you can be quite sure that T.I. has no regrets about it running in the red. Like film, audio, and video tape companies have done... all things very difficult to manufacture... it would also be a practical and easy division to spin off to someone else. This has happened countless times over the last 30 years in the semiconductor industry. Anyway, by the time that two decades of chips is exhausted I'll probably be gone and the world will be using a far more modern technology... that is if theaters still exist as they do today. Mark  |  IP: Logged Steve Guttag We forgot the crackers Gromit!!! Posts: 12814 From: Annapolis, MD Registered: Dec 1999 posted 04-11-2009 08:28 PM                     Actually, TI is most embarassed by the DLP failure...it isn't that it doesn't work...it is that it did not live up to its potential profit wise. I'll bet their stock holders also wish it didn't operate in the red. I find it totally ironic that DLP would report to TI's analog divison now. If TI ceases all production of DLP...do you really think that projector manufacturers are going to continue to manufacture DLP? Seriously? Do your customers really think that DLP 2K stuff is or should be end-game for DLP? How many times a day do you get the question about 4K DLP? I know I sure get asked about it. 2K sound just too "home-technology" and it really lacks depth. Steve  |  IP: Logged

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