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Topic: Digital Cinema = The death of theaters?
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 09-16-2010 12:17 AM
Lots of interesting stuff in this thread. Just wanted to throw in my 2¢ on the topic.
I think "digital cinema" will gain more respect and popularity once 4K resolution projectors AND 4K native resolution movie files are more common.
For years the window between theatrical release and home video release has been shrinking. Now there is a slim chance Hollywood movie studios could be forced into increasing the release window due to the deflationary spiral I think is going on with the home video side of the movie business.
We have dozens of Red Box kiosks all over Lawton now. Throw a rock and you'll hit one. Our local Hastings store gutted the prices of its rentals. Anything that's been out for a while costs 49¢ per night on DVD and 99¢ on Blu-ray. New releases are 99¢ and $1.99 for DVD and Blu-ray respectively. I don't know how Hastings can afford this. Netflix is becoming more popular. Basically it has become a lot cheaper to rent movies, cheaper than ever before in real inflation-adjusted dollars. Why even buy a movie when you can rent so many for the same amount of money?
Red Box and Netflix both have to wait 30 days after retail release to offer movies from certain studios to rent. With traditional stores like Hastings being forced to match the low prices the 30 day rental wait could be issued across the entire home video rental industry. It could actually end up hurting movie disc sales more than helping. With rental prices being so low it's much cheaper to "test drive" a Blu-ray disc before buying. 30 days isn't so long to wait. Lots of people already wait additional amounts of time before buying movies because they know the movies will be marked down in price after a few weeks or months. With all the back and forth choices between buying or saving money by waiting Hollywood studios could end up pushing off home video release dates and maybe doing away with the 30 day rental delays.
quote: Kyle Butler
If you ask me my opinion, id say that home theater technology will surpass what can be had at a theater in less than 15 years time.
When you're dealing with digital media files the content creator (the movie studios) can dictate the quality levels of movie software delivered to theaters, physical home video formats (Blu-ray, DVD, etc.), online streaming and network/cable broadcast.
Home theater hardware will continue to improve. Computers, gaming consoles and other technology devices will force that to happen. I think the movie software end of things, Blu-ray in particular, will be stuck in one place for a long time for a couple of reasons. Blu-ray could be the last physical home video movie retail format. Internet movie downloads are becoming ever more popular due to their convenience. But the image and sound quality levels are very inferior to what Blu-ray can deliver. Movie downloads could improve to match Blu-ray quality levels, but only with widespread, aggressive improvements to general purpose Internet infrastructure. A great deal of that progress has been stalled by telecom companies throwing billions upon billions of dollars into celluar phone network infrastructure instead.
A couple or so years ago I thought the Internet would be delivering average download speeds of 20 million to 30 million bits per second across much of the United States by around 2015. Now I think it could be 2020 or years beyond that before that happens.
Meanwhile commercial movie theaters will see digital cinema technology, both in terms of hardware and software, continue to improve. It's easier to make big changes to a niche product like D-cinema than major consumer electonics and retail video formats like HDTV and Blu-ray.
quote: Edward Havens
The death of cinema has been predicted since the birth of cinema. Radio was supposed to kill cinema. Television was supposed to kill cinema. VHS was supposed to kill cinema. Cable was supposed to kill cinema. Laserdisc was supposed to kill cinema. The internet was supposed to kill cinema. PPV was supposed to kill cinema. DVD was supposed to kill cinema. Widescreen televisions were supposed to kill cinema. Gaming devices like the XBox and PlayStation which can also be used as an entertainment portal were supposed to kill cinema.
One thing that will kill most commercial cinemas is widespread adoption of day and date release in theaters and home video simultaneously.
I understand one of the big reasons why people go to theaters is to get out of the house and do something. Here's the problem with that: if someone lives in a city of any decent size there's lots of things to do outside of the house. If a new movie appears on home video and in theaters at the same time the overwhelming majority of people will save money buying or merely renting the video.
quote: Scott Norwood
I am not a big believer in the value of "alternative content," but I do think that it has potential for certain markets and demographics. This needs to be explored further by adventurous exhibitors.
I think alternative content can work in a commercial theater if the content really works in a movie theater environment. It would also help greatly if the content was found only in those theaters.
For instance I don't think sporting events, like the Super Bowl or a UFC PPV event, will work well in a theater for two reasons: 1. the theaters are not showing the event exclusively and 2. sporting events are more fun to watch in sports bars, restaurants and homes where crowds of people can get rowdy and put away lots of food and beer. A theater having the Super Bowl broadcast live in 3D might attract some people but most will watch in more traditional environments.
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Ramon Lamarca Marques
Expert Film Handler
Posts: 186
From: Edgware, England, UK
Registered: Feb 2006
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posted 09-16-2010 02:54 PM
quote: Edward Havens
The death of cinema has been predicted since the birth of cinema. Radio was supposed to kill cinema. Television was supposed to kill cinema. VHS was supposed to kill cinema. Cable was supposed to kill cinema. Laserdisc was supposed to kill cinema. The internet was supposed to kill cinema. PPV was supposed to kill cinema. DVD was supposed to kill cinema. Widescreen televisions were supposed to kill cinema. Gaming devices like the XBox and PlayStation which can also be used as an entertainment portal were supposed to kill cinema.
Cinema's not going anywhere anytime soon. It's just evolving, like it always has.
It is a slow death indeed with more and more things against cinema over the years, as you well point out (this is why so many cinemas close down every year). Cinema has certainly adapted to new times but it does not mean that the cinema experience is any better. Many people on this forum fondly remember the times of big curved screens, 70mm projection and 5 speakers behind the screens. I miss this and also cinemas themselves, those gorgeous buildings, grand, majestic, imposing. The building itself was the most expensive piece of hardware and no way it is going to come back. We are mainly left with rubbish multiplexes in shopping malls.
But cinema certainly may thank digital for its demise. Thanks to digital films can be copied, and copied, and copied, and copied without any loss in quality. Piracy is killing the industry and in places like Spain big studios are considering to stop distributing any films at all on DVD/Blu-ray since hardly anyone buys anything. Everybody is downloading illegally, which is something regarded as cool and those who buy legal stuff are regarded as losers. In those times you mention, when VHS appeared, the difference in quality was abysmal and a third generation copy was already rubbish.
Now film is everywhere, people pay monthly subscriptions to their favourite movie channels in HD, Blu-ray rental by post is extremely cheap, actually the offer is so huge at home that one has to become selective as to what to see. This did not happen in the 80s or the 90s. Thank digital for this. Also, new TV programs like Lost or Mad Men have better production values than many films and are indeed very cinematographic.
Avatar was still having packed houses at the London BFI Imax after the Blu-ray was released. Avatar projected on real IMAX 15/70 is amazing and completely dwarfs any home cinema presentation, or even any multiplex presentation. I thought the film was rubbish and Roger Dean, the graphic designer, should claim royalties. But it is awesome to look at. I would never have watched this film on a multiplex or home cinema but at the IMAX, it was amazing, film projection removes the video-like look inherent to the film and its digital presentations and makes it more credible. Also the story may be rubbish but Cameron knows how to shoot 3-D with slow editing that allows viewers to marvel at the scenes. Moreover, the film is not in widescreen and so it suits IMAX screens.
Audiences will pay when something is completely different and this is why the real IMAX in London is so successful, which I do not think happens with the Liemax versions that coexist. Audiences in forums are still looking for more scenes like the ones that appear on The Dark Knight (they obviously refer to the sequences shot with IMAX cameras).
Studios will do simultaneous release to try to recover some of the money they lose because of piracy.
I personally think that theatrical exhibition will be limited to shopping malls and big event things like real IMAX. They should get more people like Cameron or Nolan to produce visual escapisms that suits the big screen. Proper 3-D (not cheap conversions) on big screens and the return of big wide screens with systems like SuperDimension 70 with products suited to them could attract audiences to cinemas.
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