Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE: Why Is Business Down?

my profile | my password | search | faq & rules | forum home

»	Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE » Operations » Ground Level » Why Is Business Down? (Page 6)

This topic comprises 7 pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Author

Topic: Why Is Business Down?

Monte L Fullmer
Film God

Posts: 8367
From: Nampa, Idaho, USA
Registered: Nov 2004

posted 04-24-2008 07:36 PM

..along with the product that really haven't had any strong legs to muster large attendances.

..plus with the massive increases in digital home theatre concepts - HDTV and with sound that can horribly beat out the cinemas ..

..and with studios releasing DVD and BluRay products much sooner than before.

I do believe that we're re-entering into that 50 yr old scare of "TV vs the Movie Theatre" saga again.

..and agree: fuel and the general economy are keeping some of the masses at home where they can find their own form of entertainment without putting the wallet in a vise of sorts.

| IP: Logged

Paul Mayer
Oh get out of it Melvin, before it pulls you under!

Posts: 3836
From: Albuquerque, NM
Registered: Feb 2000

posted 04-24-2008 10:14 PM

Jubak, the economist at MSN thinks the forces that are driving oil and food prices won't begin to stabilize until about 2010 or so. He thinks we'll be at USD $180/bbl oil and $5.50/gal gas by then. Certainly we'll be seeing $4.00/gal gas in many parts of the US this summer.

2010 is also when most housing prices are predicted to bottom out and begin a turnaround. The banks are going to need at least that much time to absorb and write down all those bad loans. This is what Japan went through in the 1990's after their bubble burst. They had about of decade of deflation because their real estate reached absolutely insane price levels. Our post-bubble recovery shouldn't be from as deep a hole nor quite so long in coming.

Here in 'Vegas, the foreclosure capital of the US, we're currently seeing 5000 new foreclosures every month and will be for the rest of this year. Watch us for indications - we're on the leading edge.

Fasten your seat belts folks, it may be a rough ride for the next little while.

| IP: Logged

Lyle Romer
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1400
From: Davie, FL, USA
Registered: May 2002

posted 04-25-2008 06:21 AM

Business is down for one simple reason. People aren't interested in seeing the product that is out right now. Heck, I like going to movies and I can see whatever I want for free and I haven't seen anything since Vantage Point. There's just nothing exciting out there. Look at last week, you had 88 Minutes with a major star get AWEFUL reviews, Forgetting Sarah Marshall has multiple instances of full male nudity of a person that nobody (Male or Female) would want to see naked, and then the Forbidden Kingdom (which could have been an awesome "kung fu" movie but was made as a Familyish fantasy instead).

Once there is product that people want to see, they will return because even with the current economic conditions and gas prices going to a movie is still a pretty cheap form of entertainment (compare a movie ticket with two hours of drinking for instance).

As for the DVD/Blu-ray window stuff, it isn't like people are waiting to see this garbage on DVD/Blu-ray either. If you look, every time there is a box office downturn, there is a DVD downturn that follows 4 months later when the same crap comes out on DVD. The video window has effected legs, multiple viewings and especially second run but you could make the DVD window 3 years and the current crop of product wouldn't be doing any better.

As for the economic downturn, many analysts see the mortgage "crisis" bottoming out this year because three years ago was the peak in 3 year adjustable mortgages and now is when they are adjusting and killing people. I put "crisis" in quotes because the media has half the country thinking that they can get foreclosed on at any minute by constantly reporting on the "sub-prime MORTGAGE CRISIS" (empasis added) when 80% of people don't even know what a sub-prime mortgage is. Oil prices can't continue to increase at this pace because people are and will adjust consumption to take less of a hit at the pump. Also, aside from speculation,the weak dollar has a lot to do with the price and as seen yesterday, improvement in the dollar has a drastic effect on oil prices (dropped from $120 bbl to $116 bbl on a strenghtening dollar).

| IP: Logged

Geoff Jones
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 579
From: Broomfield, CO, USA
Registered: Feb 2006

posted 04-25-2008 10:49 AM

quote: Lyle Romer
Business is down for one simple reason. People aren't interested in seeing the product that is out right now.

I couldn't agree more. I've probably seen about 4 movies in the theatre this year. The only ones I enjoyed were Blade Runner and The Terminator. (Both had large crowds)

[Smile]

| IP: Logged

Ron Funderburg
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 814
From: Chickasha, Oklahoma, USA
Registered: Nov 2007

posted 04-25-2008 11:01 AM

Blaming TV or a variant there for every down turn in theater business has been a staple of the theater industry since the 1950's. And every time there is down swing there are those claiming it is the end of movie theaters.

Hollywood would never dream of saying our product sucks right now, or we didn't promote this right and theaters would never ever admit that people didn't like going to their location because you stick to the floors. Big chains don't like to admit when they have over built an area but all these things happen and right now the good movies were handled poorly, the bad movies have been far to many and the crowds aren't here for us.

DVD sales were off last year and the theater business had the best year ever, well I don't know about that but that is the hype. It was at least an up year this year isn't looking so good.

The real question isn't what is causing it but how long will it last. We have been in down turn of business from the previous year since February. Will the summer this year be down from last year? Fall? Holiday? It the down turn in business goes the rest of the year watch out! (we will have more business in summer but as much as last year?)

| IP: Logged

Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 04-25-2008 11:58 AM

Lyle hit the nail on the head. The movie business is CYCLICAL, it always has been and always will be. Cripes, you'd think some of the people on this board were born yesterday.

Traditionally movie theatres have done OK in hard economic times because going to the movies is a low-priced entertainment option compared to other out-of-home options.

This particular down-turn will end on May 2.

| IP: Logged

Darryl Spicer
Film God

Posts: 3250
From: Lexington, KY, USA
Registered: Dec 2000

posted 04-25-2008 12:30 PM

Things should start to get better for the movies. How much better is the big question.

| IP: Logged

Michael Wilkinson
The Entertainment King of Colusa and Beyond

Posts: 89
From: Colusa, CA USA
Registered: Apr 2004

posted 04-25-2008 02:50 PM

There have only been a few recent films that have kept me in the seat for the whole movie.

With all of the good product coming up this summer I still don't see the one "anchor film" (or series) that gets people back in the habit of going to the movies. The last one of those was the Lord of the Rings trilogy. The LOTR series benefited benefited everyone for years. Harry Potter is fizzling out. Pirates was huge but no legs. The Spider Man series kind of went the same route. Iron Man is supposed to be the greatest thing since sliced bread but I'm not sure if either Iron Man or Indy will be the type of pictures that will create the momentum needed to make the slow times a little more bearable.

Besides a strong Summer does anyone think that there are any real cycle breakers coming up??? ...and how old is Harrison Ford anyway?

| IP: Logged

Paul Mayer
Oh get out of it Melvin, before it pulls you under!

Posts: 3836
From: Albuquerque, NM
Registered: Feb 2000

posted 04-25-2008 04:43 PM

66 on July 13th this year. [Big Grin]

| IP: Logged

Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 04-25-2008 08:39 PM

quote: Michael Wilkinson
Harry Potter is fizzling out.

The last one was the top grosser of the series so far for us, and the 2nd highest in attendance. (Higher gross due to ticket price increase.) If that's a fizzle, I'll take it.

| IP: Logged

Monte L Fullmer
Film God

Posts: 8367
From: Nampa, Idaho, USA
Registered: Nov 2004

posted 04-25-2008 09:01 PM

quote: Mike Blakesley
If that's a fizzle, I'll take it.

And with Mike's little theatre, practically any show that hits his screen probably does very well since he's in a market all by himself and the closest competition is Billings - a good hour's drive away.

Thus, that's of of the key words in this hill-and-dale industry is "market" - some market areas can tank on a film, whereas others can make bank and then some.

-Monte

| IP: Logged

Chris Slycord
Film God

Posts: 2986
From: 청주시, 경북도, South Korea
Registered: Mar 2007

posted 04-25-2008 09:47 PM

quote: Lyle Romer
Look at last week, you had 88 Minutes with a major star get AWEFUL reviews, Forgetting Sarah Marshall has multiple instances of full male nudity of a person that nobody (Male or Female) would want to see naked, and then the Forbidden Kingdom (which could have been an awesome "kung fu" movie but was made as a Familyish fantasy instead).

The fact that only one movie out of the three you mention performed poorly shows that your point isn't exactly well-founded. People aren't seeing 88 Minutes, as you noted, probably because it looks stupid and got awful reviews.

But each of the other movies you mentioned grossed more than double that of 88 Minutes. And both got overall favorable reviews. Also of note is the fact that there is much more in Forgetting Sarah Marshall than a frontal scene.

It's like an old manager of mine who freaked out for a long time over a scene in About Schmidt saying he didn't want to see Kathy Bates naked. By his ranting you would've thought it was like 5 minutes long or something, when in reality it was a couple seconds out of a fantastic movie.

| IP: Logged

Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 04-25-2008 11:10 PM

quote: Monte L Fullmer
And with Mike's little theatre, practically any show that hits his screen probably does very well since he's in a market all by himself

Uhhh, no. It takes a popular movie, and people here have their satellite TV and DVDs and videogames etc. just like in the big cities. It's Friday night right now and we have a grand total of 16 people here ("21," late show). So I'm countin' the days until summer right along with everyone else!

| IP: Logged

Paul Van Dusen
Film Handler

Posts: 82
From: Roanoke, VA
Registered: Feb 2006

posted 04-25-2008 11:54 PM

I can sum up why business is down in three words "Beverly Hills Chihuahua"

| IP: Logged

Scott D. Neff
Theatre Dork

Posts: 919
From: San Francisco, CA
Registered: Oct 1999

posted 04-26-2008 12:24 PM

Man I wanna see Beverly Hills Chihuahua soooo bad...

| IP: Logged

All times are Central (GMT -6:00)

This topic comprises 7 pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Printer-friendly view of this topic

The Film-Tech Forums are designed for various members related to the cinema industry to express their opinions, viewpoints and testimonials on various products, services and events based upon speculation, personal knowledge and factual information through use, therefore all views represented here allow no liability upon the publishers of this web site and the owners of said views assume no liability for any ill will resulting from these postings. The posts made here are for educational as well as entertainment purposes and as such anyone viewing this portion of the website must accept these views as statements of the author of that opinion and agrees to release the authors from any and all liability.