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This topic comprises 7 pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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Author
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Topic: Why Is Business Down?
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 04-26-2008 01:04 PM
Over the past 40 years, whenever the United States economy was in a recession the movie industry seemed to do pretty well. Classics like The Godfather and Raiders of the Lost Ark were released during recessionary periods.
I think this upcoming summer movie season (which kicks off this coming Friday) is going to better than it has been in years. There's actually even some big releases that aren't sequels!
For the broader economy, even world-wide, I think we're in trouble.
I'm convinced many of the expert economists don't know what they're talking about regarding predictions of when the oil price bubble will finally pop or when housing prices will get back on a positive trend. Worse yet, if those economists really knew what they were talking about, the few truly in the know wouldn't tell the general public the slightest bit of truth.
But that's assuming the public even needed to be told what was in store regarding this housing industry crisis. Any idiot should have seen the bust coming. Policy makers certainly knew what was in store, but too many of their friends were making lots of money right then. Why be a "buzzkill" and ruin the party?
The housing industry was treated like an electronics store during a fiery riot. Everybody stormed the place, cleaned it out and threw in a Molitav Cocktail for the coup de grāce. The housing industry was a free for all too. Speculators were trading property like baseball cards. Others were moving into houses they knew they could not afford, but did it anyway as an act of appearing more affluent. But they didn't care. They took comfort in the notion they could always flip the house to some other buyer before that "ARM" re-adjusted to a higher interest rate.
![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif)
Everyone seemed to believe the commonly held lie housing prices have never declined and could only go up. Not only was that belief completely ignorant of long term market history, but it also ignored the fundamental fact that someone eventually had to just live in that house and pay for the damned thing with their income.
Oil prices and the prices of other commodities (corn, rice, etc.) are now being run up by the same greedy speculators who turned the housing market into a toilet. Those speculators are also among the same group of people who exported huge chunks of American industry to other countries -thus over-heating the economies of those countries and making thing like oil cost a whole lot more.
Drivers in countries like China, India and Iran aren't affected by those high gasoline prices since their socialist or psuedo-socialist governments subsidize the crap out of that one commodity. But those governments can't quite do the same for something called "food." Price spikes for various food commodities, such as rice, have been making life much worse in already impoverished areas of thew world. This is the sort of thing that can start war.
I think the United States' dollar is going to go through the most serious bout of inflation since the late 1970s. It's already happening, but I think matters are going to get worse. The upside to that is everyone will have to be paid quite a bit more in dollars to maintain the same level of buying power. Those super high housing prices and gasoline prices will be devalued in a relative way.
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Mark Lensenmayer
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1605
From: Upper Arlington, OH
Registered: Sep 1999
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posted 04-28-2008 05:38 PM
I think I've said this whenever this topic comes up. My wife and I WANT to go to the movies. We very much like the early AMC shows on the weekend...they allow us to get to a film and still have time to get some things done around the house, yard or whatever.
But, right now, THERE IS NOTHING TO SEE. And, yes, I meant to shout there. Even the "art" films out now are not very interesting.
What do we want to see? Smart, well written comedies like DEATH AT A FUNERAL. Good drama, like THE QUEEN or NOTES ON A SCANDAL. Great storytelling, like PAN'S LABRYRINTH. We'll go see the more commercial things if they don't look too silly or predictable.
Yep..typical "old folks" movie goers. Lots of white hair at those early shows.
Hey, movie companies...I have enough money to enjoy your product. I still like the movie-going experience and I don't pirate your product. Send out a few thing for us once in awhile. Give us a good product, and we will spend our money with you.
And, no, Judd Apatow films are NOT on our list.
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