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Topic: Is this year the most underwhelming holiday film lineup ever?

Gordon McLeod
Film God

Posts: 9532
From: Toronto Ontario Canada
Registered: Jun 99

posted 12-14-2010 02:31 PM

Tom said "Yeah, well it also had the highest ever debut for a Harry Potter film.

So, the drop means nothing. "

wrong the studios make the biggest cut in the first week and the average percentage drops so ideally a long run is ideal
2 week wonders only make the studio money

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 12-14-2010 04:13 PM

Actually Potter is a Sliding Aggregate film so the percentage is the same no matter what week it is.

But those empty houses in week 3 and 4 aren't helping anyone's concession sales.

For what it's worth, Boxoffice is predicting $55 mil for Tron opening weekend.

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Jonathan M. Crist
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 531
From: Hershey, PA, USA
Registered: Apr 2000

posted 12-14-2010 04:30 PM

The weak slate of films this year is a direct by-product of the writers strike.

Add to this that gas has now hit $3.00 a gallon - which most economists agree is the current psychological break point for discretionary spending - and people are going to be really careful about doling out for mediocre faire.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 12-14-2010 04:33 PM

quote: Jonathan M. Crist
gas has now hit $3.00 a gallon - which most economists agree is the current psychological break point for discretionary spending

I don't buy that with regard to movie ticket spending though. There wasn't a huge drop in attendance two years ago when gas was over $4.00 a gallon.

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John T. Hendrickson, Jr
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 889
From: Freehold, NJ, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 12-14-2010 09:23 PM

Don't anybody get your hopes up over the holiday fare this year. More remakes and sequels. Very little originality. Narnia is tanking, and so is The Tourist. Yogi in 3D? Give me a break. Don't see an audience for Gulliver. That leaves Fockers, and there isn't enough there to salvage the season. Tron? It will be DOA.

But don't worry folks. The suits out on the west coast will all collect their holliday bonuses. And the percentages will go up again next year.

And all this [bs]

will be out on DVD in 3 months anyway.

Isn't this a great business??

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Chad Souder
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 962
From: Waterloo, IA, USA
Registered: Feb 2000

posted 12-14-2010 09:55 PM

quote: Tom Petrov
We still have Black Swan to go wide and The Fighter which both will do very well.

Doubt it. Black Swan's expansion will still keep them under 1000 screens and The Fighter is yet another Mark Wahlberg Rags-To-Riches story. He's proven that he alone does not bring in viewers and I doubt the Christian Bale thing adds anything here since he looks terrible. The only movies Bale has ever been in that have grossed anything were either called Batman or Terminator when he was an action star that weighed more than Calista Flockhart. This is a movie about an athlete nobody has ever heard of in a sport nobody cares about.

quote: Tom Petrov
If these four are true, and the reviews are at least good, we will see a $60m opening.

On a movie that reportedly cost over $300 mil? Wow, I bet those execs are jumping for joy at that possibility. [Roll Eyes]

I think the only thing to keep our fingers crossed for is True Grit and Yogi. Fockers is just more of the same. Tron is visually stunning, but lacking story or appeal to a wide audience, Gulliver's Travels is so bad it got pushed back to Christmas day, and there is no Avatar or Blind Side coming so we'll all fall well, well short of last year's December when it's all said and done.

Maybe Yogi will have a little Alvin and the Chipmunks magic in him and it will help the matinee popcorn sales, but I wouldn't expect the 3D to do anything special. Parents have already shown they're not willing to pay the extra for the entire family.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 12-15-2010 12:18 AM

At my AMBUCS civic club meeting Monday the guest speaker talked about the spirit of Christmas and the importance of just making the effort to spread a little joy and think about others during the holidays. He led off his talk about this year's holiday movie season. There's little, if any movies involving Christmas. That's a first in quite a few years. Our local newspaper ran an article Sunday on the same thing.

I definitely think this is a "down" year in terms of big event movies released during the holiday season. And that's even with not factoring in the huge business Avatar did last year.

I loved the first Tron movie. But in 1982 I was in middle school and geeking out over computers (and coin-op video games) at the time. Being into art and graphics I was blown away by the look of the '82 film. Regardless if you like the movie or not, it was absolutely ground breaking both in terms of technology as well as visual style.

Tron: Legacy isn't ground breaking. The 3D stuff, CGI and effects compositing work has been repeated in other movies. While the movie's look is more polished, I think it's also too realistic looking. The original movie may be far more crude in technological terms, but the abstract look of it has a charm to it not found in this new movie.

Because of those "been there done that" issues, I'm not very optimistic about the chances of Tron: Legacy making lots of money. I hope I'm wrong about this and that the movie is at least a modest hit. That way Disney will spend a decent amount of money to create a high quality Blu-ray of Tron rather than just go through the motions.

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Tom Petrov
Five Guys Lover

Posts: 1121
From: El Paso, TX
Registered: Jan 2003

posted 12-15-2010 12:43 AM

quote: Chad Souder
Doubt it. Black Swan's expansion will still keep them under 1000 screens and The Fighter is yet another Mark Wahlberg Rags-To-Riches story. He's proven that he alone does not bring in viewers and I doubt the Christian Bale thing adds anything here since he looks terrible

Well, I have yet to see The Fighter but both Black Swan and The Fighter will play right into late January when the Oscar nominations role out.

Word of mouth for the The Fighter is going to be very good. Black Swan is already getting outstanding word-of-mouth.

These are two movies that I would want to be playing in my theatre for the next four-six weeks. And you don't need expensive 3D to be playing them.

As for True Grit, not a single Golden Globe, will do Ok. It will be cool to have two Jeff Bridges movies out within weeks of each other.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 12-15-2010 03:39 AM

quote: Tom Petrov
both Black Swan and The Fighter will play right into late January when the Oscar nominations role out.

Oooh that really makes it more exciting, considering that most of the Oscar nominations are usually for flop movies.

Notice I mean "flop" as in $$, not as in how good they are.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 12-15-2010 09:29 AM

Black Swan isn't exactly a mainstream movie. I don't think any of Darren Aronofsky's could be considered mainstream. Not even The Fountain. Seems kind of strange that he was chosen to direct The Wolverine; maybe Hugh Jackman had something to do with getting him on board.

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Joe Redifer
You need a beating today

Posts: 12859
From: Denver, Colorado
Registered: May 99

posted 12-15-2010 10:16 AM

Black Swan looks stupid. The only thing I even remember from the trailer is what's-her-face digging a thorn or some such thing out of her skin for a reason that wasn't explained. Plus, ballet sucks.

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Brian D. Whitish
Expert Film Handler

Posts: 103
From: Seattle, WA, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 12-15-2010 10:24 AM

I manage an art house and we opened Black Swan to the best business we have had since Up In The Air. We open Kings Speech on Xmas day and for my theater it looks like a great xmas lineup that should carry us thru Feb. For commercial theaters I feel sorry. What a bunch of junk out there. I do hope that True Grit is good.

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Tom Petrov
Five Guys Lover

Posts: 1121
From: El Paso, TX
Registered: Jan 2003

posted 12-15-2010 12:05 PM

quote: Brian D. Whitish
I manage an art house and we opened Black Swan to the best business we have had since Up In The Air.

I have seen it, it is going to do solid buisness for a long while. Same thing with the fighter. More than any other films, Black Swan and The Fighter are the two movies I would want playing in my theatre during the holidays.

As for True Grit, I am surprised that it did not get one single Golden Globe nomination. True Grit will do ok.

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John T. Hendrickson, Jr
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 889
From: Freehold, NJ, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 12-18-2010 08:55 AM

Well, FWIW, Tron tanked on opening day in our area. I heard that at one local theatre, Black Swain outgrossed it.

Is that the sound of bodies hitting the pavement in California this morning? [Eek!]

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Caleb Johnstone-Cowan
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 593
From: London, UK
Registered: Mar 2006

posted 12-18-2010 08:59 PM

It doesn't help when the media reports how 'the UK has ground to a standstill' over four inches of snow, and tells people 'to stay at home'. Seriously, four inches of snow. I've been to Ontario in -20 degrees celsius and piles of snow up to my knees, and everything worked fine.

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