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Topic: Is this year the most underwhelming holiday film lineup ever?

Mike Frese
Master Film Handler

Posts: 465
From: Holts Summit, MO
Registered: Jun 2007

posted 02-09-2011 04:37 PM

Boxoffice.com has the ytd number through last weekend at -27.5%. We need a big turnaround fast.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 02-09-2011 06:03 PM

Comparing this year to last year isn't very meaningful at this point because we don't have an "Avatar" this year.

The same thing happened the year after "Passion of the Christ" was out; we didn't have a similar blockbuster that year so everyone was wringing their hands and saying the movie business was dying.

The same thing happened the year after "The Lion King" and "Mrs. Doubtfire" (both the same year) and also the year after "E.T."

And probably the year after "Gone with the Wind" too.

It's a cyclical business and always will be.

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Kurt Zupin
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 989
From: Maricopa, Arizona
Registered: Oct 2004

posted 02-09-2011 08:04 PM

Everyone thats jumping off the ship because its down from this time last year is crazy. Just like Mike said, we don't have AVATAR going 20 weeks in the top 3. This summer is one of the most packed summers I can remember in a long time, there are a lot of movies coming up that are going to do well for an extended period of time as well as have huge openings. I can't remember seeing a summer line up with more movies that could open at more then $70mil each. I think we're in for a good year, better then last year by a landslide.

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Mike Frese
Master Film Handler

Posts: 465
From: Holts Summit, MO
Registered: Jun 2007

posted 02-09-2011 10:10 PM

Certainly their is an Avatar factor. It was in the top 3 9 of it's first 10 weeks of release. It did $354 million in the comparable prior year ytd period. But, if you throw that out, you have to throw out the top performer this ytd (True Grit $93m). That still leaves you down 8%.

That number is skewed a bit as well. The best performers this year are not movies that typically do well for the smaller theaters:

Arthouse: Black Swan ($58 million ytd), King's Speech ($70m)

3d Since many smaller theaters do not have: Tron ($56m), Green Hornet ($88m)

R Rated: No Strings ($53m), Even Little Fockers is pretty raunchy for pg-13 ($70m)

Last year we had great performers for the smaller theaters: Sherlock Holmes ($100m), Chipmunks ($92m), Book of Eli ($84m), Blind Side ($46m) Lovely Bones ($42m)

The better grossing smaller theaters in my area are down at least 15% (except for one- take a bow Alex). These theaters did not do great with Avatar b/c most did not have 3d.

So there are legitimate concerns. I do agree that this summer looks very good. This spring looks very good for kid-friendly movies: Rango, Rio, Wimpy Kid 2, Hop, & Mars Needs Moms.

My concern is that if February does not turn around fast enough studios might cut back more than usual on prints.

Boxoffice.com predictions for the top 3 this weekend is $67 million while last year's top 3 was $116m. Bieber was cut from over $30m a couple of weeks ago to $17m.

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