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» Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE   » Community   » Film-Yak   » Study Shows That BitTorrent Piracy Doesn’t Affect U.S. Box Office Profits (Page 2)

 
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Author Topic: Study Shows That BitTorrent Piracy Doesn’t Affect U.S. Box Office Profits
Mike Blakesley
Film God

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From: Forsyth, Montana
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 - posted 02-16-2012 06:55 PM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Joe Redifer
Of course, as a movie theater owner you will fight to the death to defend seeing movies in an actual movie theater is somehow better when it clearly only offers one advantage.
Not necessarily. I sell (a few) CDs at work, yet I am fully convinced that buying songs online these days is way better than buying a 70-minute album with only four good minutes of songs on it. (Cue: Bobby Henderson with a rant about lossy compressed formats.)

We have a 55" screen at home and I love it; but it's still not as cool as seeing a movie in a theater, to me. But that's me, you are you and there's no way either of us is going to change the other's mind.

You also have to keep in mind that that majority of people DON'T have "home theater" setups. Most of them have a crappy setup. So the home experience may be cheaper, but "better" really depends on a lot of factors.

Even the equipment isn't always the deciding factor: My brother might have a really cool TV set but I would never watch a movie at his house because his kids would be running around all the time making noise and his wife would be asking us to "turn that down, willya?"

quote: Joe Redifer
you are seeing "the boss" (of what profession, I'm not sure) in real life
Shit, these days they bring gigantic video screens to concerts, so the bulk of the people spend most of the time watching it on TV anyway. You want to talk about a shitty experience... concerts are way worse than the worst movie theater and they cost ten times as much. Yet that's where the money is in music these days. Further proof that people love to get out of the house.

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Joe Redifer
You need a beating today

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From: Denver, Colorado
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 - posted 02-16-2012 07:02 PM      Profile for Joe Redifer   Author's Homepage   Email Joe Redifer   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Well the issue isn't me vs you, it's what keeps the public going to theaters and stopping piracy. I contend that with a slightly lower price, not enough to put the industry into a financial crisis but enough to encourage more repeated viewings along with other's ideas of simultaneous worldwide release and keeping movies in theaters longer would do a lot for the industry. I wouldn't like that last part, but it might be valid. But that will never happen as the studios want to make as much money as they can as fast as they can. Do home video releases slow piracy or exacerbate it?

quote: Mike Blakesley
Further proof that people love to get out of the house.
Maybe for some but if that were the case, people would leave their house all of the time for no reason. I think the big draw here is being in the presence of "the boss" and hoping he will personally give you a raise.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

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From: Forsyth, Montana
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 - posted 02-16-2012 07:10 PM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Joe Redifer
But that will never happen as the studios want to make as much money as they can as fast as they can.
Agreed, which is why they keep shrinking the window and trying to raise the price. They can't seem to get it through their heads that people are already complaining about $9 movie tickets, so they're DEFINITELY not going to ever pay $50 or $60 for a first-weekend home video viewing (especially with all the limitations they want to put on it).

They screwed themselves when they allowed the whole one-dollar rental thing. They made all movies seem worth a dollar or less. I think the studios have done much more damage to the movie business than crappy theaters ever did.

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Joe Redifer
You need a beating today

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From: Denver, Colorado
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 - posted 02-16-2012 09:41 PM      Profile for Joe Redifer   Author's Homepage   Email Joe Redifer   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Too much is never enough. The studios are constantly saying to themselves "Wow, we make a ton of money. What can we do to make more?"

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

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From: Lawton, OK, USA
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 - posted 02-16-2012 10:26 PM      Profile for Bobby Henderson   Email Bobby Henderson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
The problem is the movie industry is now controlled by Wall Street bean counters via parent global media companies. These guys are only concerned about maximizing positive cash flow to improve stock prices in the short term and they'll pull just about any stupid, short-sighted stunt to manage it. The $1 movie rentals thing is a perfect example of a positive cash flow gambit gone wrong. The home video rental industry is now in deep trouble over it. It's the same Wall Street types forcing movie studios to keep making the same predictable, bland content over and over again. Bean counter types and investors hate new (read: unproven) ideas. They only see a truly original movie as a very negative risk.

I think the same bean counter mentality is at the root of how Hollywood is handling piracy. They think all 300 million plus Americans are movie customers when that simply isn't the case. So they see every single download as a lost sale. They don't realize that quite a few downloaders probably would never have bothered watching the movie if it wasn't immediately available as an illegal download.

The other problem is piracy activity is overstated by the movie industry. Not all that many Americans are technically astute enough to manage illegally downloading a movie. Way too many Americans can't manage the legal files on their computer's hard disc. I see the movie downloading process as a time consuming pain in the ass. It's easier for me to just drive to Hastings and rent the Blu-ray or see it at the theater if I want to pay extra to see it during theatrical release. I doubt if I'm alone in having this attitude toward movie torrents. If the process was really easy I doubt if Netflix would have so many movie streaming customers.

The most frequent downloaders are people in overseas markets that have to wait months or maybe even a year or more after the North American release date to see the movie. Certain movies may never be available in some markets due to state censorship. A broad, simultaneous global movie release strategy would solve a big part of that problem and it would radically improve short term positive cash flow!

quote: Mike Blakesley
I sell (a few) CDs at work, yet I am fully convinced that buying songs online these days is way better than buying a 70-minute album with only four good minutes of songs on it. (Cue: Bobby Henderson with a rant about lossy compressed formats.)
Yep. I don't think the lossy compressed tunes are worth it. If I want to listen to lossy compressed music there are various ways to do so for free. Pandora and Slacker offer portable, free ways to listen to lossy compressed music. Just about any current hit tune and many older tunes are available on YouTube in music video form. I can run either HDMI or Toslink connections from my notebook to my stereo system to get the audio out of something better than my computer speakers (although the JBL branded speakers in my Dell XPS notebook aren't bad at all). Some online stores like HD tracks are starting to sell lossless compressed and even high res songs and album downloads. But the variety isn't nearly as wide as what Apple and Amazon offer at this point.

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Justin Hamaker
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From: Lakeport, CA USA
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 - posted 02-17-2012 10:00 AM      Profile for Justin Hamaker   Author's Homepage   Email Justin Hamaker   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Bobby Henderson
The other problem is piracy activity is overstated by the movie industry. Not all that many Americans are technically astute enough to manage illegally downloading a movie.
This may be true with something like BitTorrent, but there are sites now that will stream a movie much the same way as watching it on Netflix or like watching a video on a news site. This may avoid the problem of making illegal copies, but it facilitates the less computer savvy in viewing the downloads. If you ever visit a forum like Yahoo Answers, many of the questions posted are about finding these sites.

And I disagree with Joe on a couple points. First is that a small decrease in price is not going to change movie habits. Any decrease in price has to be large enough to create a corresponding increase in volume. A dollar or two is not going to make a difference to most people.

Secondly, I don't think there is any way to keep movies in theatres longer unless the studios decrease the number of movies being released and reduce the emphasis on seeing a new movie the opening weekend. Unfortunately, I don't think this is possible since consumer habits have changed to where they have to see the big new movie as soon as possible. As it stands right now, most movies don't have enough legs to go past 2-3 weeks. And the ones that do run longer are the surprise hits that people go to because a friend recommended.

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Mike Blakesley
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From: Forsyth, Montana
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 - posted 02-17-2012 12:10 PM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Justin Hamaker
consumer habits have changed to where they have to see the big new movie as soon as possible. As it stands right now, most movies don't have enough legs to go past 2-3 weeks.
Ain't that the truth. I have found, unless it's a major word-of-mouth winner (War Horse being a good recent one), if we don't get a movie on the break or within the first 3 - 4 weeks, we might as well forget it. The bloom just falls off the rose too fast anymore.

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Edward Havens
Jedi Master Film Handler

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From: Los Angeles, CA
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 - posted 02-17-2012 01:05 PM      Profile for Edward Havens   Email Edward Havens   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Bobby Henderson
Bean counter types and investors hate new (read: unproven) ideas. They only see a truly original movie as a very negative risk.
Can you blame them? Look at the list of the top grossing movies worldwide:

1) Avatar (2009)
2) Titanic (1997)
3) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (2011)
4) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003)
5) Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011)
6) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
7) Toy Story 3 (2010)
8) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
9) Alice in Wonderland (2010)
10) The Dark Knight (2008)
11) Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
12) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 (2010)
13) Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
14) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
15) Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999)
16) The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2002)
17) Jurassic Park (1993)
18) Shrek 2 (2004)
19) Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
20) Spider-Man 3 (2007)
21) Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (2009)
22) Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
23) The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001)
24) Finding Nemo (2003)
25) Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)

The bean counters are giving the people EXACTLY what they want!

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Steve Guttag
We forgot the crackers Gromit!!!

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From: Annapolis, MD
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 - posted 02-17-2012 03:29 PM      Profile for Steve Guttag   Email Steve Guttag   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Care to adjust that list a little? Factor in constant currency (essentially ticket sales) and then...ticket sales as a function of population (how many people "could" see the movie versus how many actually did).

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Edward Havens
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 - posted 02-17-2012 06:36 PM      Profile for Edward Havens   Email Edward Havens   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
No, I don't, since the general point is still true. The plebeians of the world clearly want the same, mass-manufactured crap they've been given before.

Although I love the fact that the #1 and #2 highest grossing movies are based on original screenplays, from a writer/producer/director who can seem to get anything he wants from a studio that has been counting every nickel and dime on the budgets for the likes of Star Wars and X-Men for decades.

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Mike Blakesley
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From: Forsyth, Montana
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 - posted 02-17-2012 06:45 PM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Bobby Henderson
Bean counter types and investors hate new (read: unproven) ideas. They only see a truly original movie as a very negative risk.
Because that's what it is, in the vast majority of cases. There is no way to guarantee a hit, but the mostly LIKELY way is to make a sequel, remake, reboot or adaptation of an already-proven property. If you were a studio suit, and knew that your career would come to a quick end if you green-light too many flops, how many truly original movies are you going to make vs. near-sure-things?

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Steve Guttag
We forgot the crackers Gromit!!!

Posts: 12814
From: Annapolis, MD
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 - posted 02-17-2012 06:59 PM      Profile for Steve Guttag   Email Steve Guttag   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
No, the point you and the bean counters miss is that they have cultivated a smaller crowd and and that they are now catering to them...rather than catering to a larger crowd.

To put it in other terms...If I sell only root beer at a store...no colas...I will alienate my other customers...however, I will develop a root beer following and they will know that is what I sell...it will get to the point that if I deviate from selling root beer, it will likely hurt my existing sales. However, my sales will reach what I would have had if I had sold all of the soft drinks in the first place and not just honed in on one area.

By and large, the really big hits in this industry have not been the ones that followed the trend. The trend normally gets one diminishing returns.

What your stats didn't tell you is how many people this industry has taught to not patronize...all the stats you have show are those that do currently patronize like these sort of movies...well that is a bit self-fulfilling.

By looking at the size of the population and the percentage that go to movies you see just how big the pie is and how big a slice we are currently getting...then compare that throughout the cinema history.

It is true though...just like in gambling, the bigger the risk, the bigger the pay-off but at a greater likelihood of loss.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

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From: Forsyth, Montana
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 - posted 02-17-2012 08:51 PM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Steve Guttag
By looking at the size of the population and the percentage that go to movies you see just how big the pie is and how big a slice we are currently getting...then compare that throughout the cinema history.
But you can't compare "throughout cinema history" because there has never been a time like this throughout history. A time when there were SO MANY other ways a person could be entertained without even getting up off of his butt. A time when a person could have hours and hours of entertainment delivered into the palm of his hand instantaneously for free. A time when people think watching a movie on a 3" screen is an acceptable way to experience it.

Sure the pie is a little bigger and our slice is smaller, but there are things competing for that pie that weren't even thought of when the "blockbuster era" began.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

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From: Lawton, OK, USA
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 - posted 02-17-2012 10:37 PM      Profile for Bobby Henderson   Email Bobby Henderson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
With so many entertainment alternatives, Hollywood is clearly on a self-destructive path if their parent Wall Street oriented companies only want to keep selling the same shit over and over and over and over and over again.

Eventually the public is going to grow fickle and stop buying. None of those bean counters know exactly when the public will become fed up and bail out of movie-going. But I guarantee it will happen at some point. Hollywood has fallen into financial crisis mode before in past decades and they're setting themselves up for the same thing again. Consumer tastes in entertainment can change very suddenly, far faster than a movie production line has time to adapt. And probably much faster still with the aid of digital technology and an Internet that is growing ever faster. By adopting this stupid "let's make the same vanilla shit over and over again" attitude the studios are ultimately dooming themselves to a really bad crisis.

The really funny thing is how the fundamental nature of showing movies is being changed (from 35mm film to video projection and various modes of real or faked digital 3D) yet the actual stories being presented are extremely re-hashed and conventional.

What the movie studios are presenting is akin to me walking into the grocery store and paying a high premium price for some generic, plain, vanilla ice cream that's wrapped in a glossy, 3D lenticular wrapper. It's bullshit.

Some years ago acclaimed screenwriter Paul Schrader wrote an article about the decline of Hollywood's movie output by measuring in terms of Oscar Best Picture nominees year over year. He brought up a year in the 1970's, 1975 I think in which The Godfather Part II won, but was up against classics like Chinatown, The Conversation and The Towering Inferno. In 1976, films like Network and Taxi Driver were up against Rocky, which ultimately won. In 1977 it was a showdown between Annie Hall and Star Wars. Then he compared those nominee lists to more contemporary lists and it seemed so lopsided on how much better the 1970's choices were. Hollywood was really having to try back then, in part because the industry was in some real trouble. They were forced to survive and forced to take chances on lots of not so conventional filmmaking ideas. Even Star Wars was an extremely risky, unproven idea. If George Lucas were trying to break the same kind of ground today I guarantee those Wall Street bean counters would never have allowed it to happen. Further, they would have pulled Francis Coppola off the set of The Godfather before he could film the riveting assassination scene inside the restaurant.

These days the Best Picture Oscar thing is pretty anti-climatic. To me, the last real contest in the Best Picture Oscar category was between Titanic and L.A. Confidential for the 1997 prize.

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Edward Havens
Jedi Master Film Handler

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 - posted 02-18-2012 01:28 AM      Profile for Edward Havens   Email Edward Havens   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Steve, that's really not a great metaphor. The store isn't only selling root beer.

Paramount released 15 movies in 2011, plus added grosses for six additional movies from 2010. Of those 15 new movies, the top five grossers for them was a sequel (Transformers 3), two comic book adaptations (Thor and Captain America), another sequel (Kung Fu Panda 2) and a sidequel (Puss in Boots). Those five combined for 52% of their domestic gross. It's not until you get to #6 and #7 that you get to original properties (Super 8 and Rango), and the only reasons those got made was because the studio wanted to keep J.J. Abrams and Johnny Depp happy. After that, two more sequels (MI4 and Paranormal 3) and a quickie Justin Bieber documentary.

Go back a year and what do you have? Another 15 new movies released, and the top ten consisting of four sequels, two remakes, a book adaptation, a live-action adaptation of a sister company cartoon and two original works.

Keep going back, whether it's Paramount or Warners or Disney or Sony or Fox or Universal, and seventy-five plus percent of the time, their top releases of films in terms of gross ticket sales are from a remake, a sequel or an adaptation, or some combination of the three. In fact, of the six majors, their combined top ten grossers have 16 originals and 44 are remakes/sequels/adaptations. So that's only 73.33%. Sorry to overestimate.

This is our modern history. Audiences want the safe and familiar, and the studios know how to market that. The Vow is a perfect example. It's not based on a Nicholas Sparks novel, but damn it if I didn't know that until I looked it up. It was perfectly sold as something safe and familiar. Hey, you loved Rachel McAdams in The Notebook, and you loved Channing Tatum in Dear John! Now here they are, together, in a movie that's just like those moves! Come give us an over-performing opening weekend! But if you're not into that, Fox is releasing a Star Wars movie! And in 3-D! Star Wars! You loved Star Wars! But if you aren't into that and you aren't in to romantic drama, Universal got you some Denzel movie. You love Denzel! We all love Denzel! Who the hell doesn't love Denzel? King Kong ain't got s**t on him! And if you got a family, there's Big Miracle. Everybody loves whales!

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