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This topic comprises 4 pages: 1 2 3 4
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Topic: The End Is Near - Go to the movies while you still can (Article)
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Marcel Birgelen
Film God
Posts: 3357
From: Maastricht, Limburg, Netherlands
Registered: Feb 2012
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posted 04-07-2017 05:50 PM
Hollywood has been proclaimed dead like a million times... and every now and then, some big studio actually goes belly up.
I'm predicting it will not happen to just a single studio this time. And to be honest, they deserve it.
Look at the crapload of shit they've been churning out lately and still have in their collective sewer pipes, just waiting to be spewed all over their distribution network.
Just recently I read Warner Brothers is seriously considering rebooting the Matrix franchise. Not simply a sequel or another movie in the same universe, no, a reboot.
There are so many stories left unfilmed out there. So many stories left untold, yet, they seem to be completely out of ideas. Also, just because someone dangled them a juicy "VOD carrot" in front of their faces, they're ready to slaughter the goose with the golden egg.
Really, they deserve to semi-collectively burn to the ground.
On the bright side, from the ashes could rise something new. Something that could eventually save the exhibition industry. Let's hope some investors with some real kahunas pick up what's left and what's worth saving from the ashes. There's so much talent with money in Hollywood. Shouldn't some of them be able to unite and save this train wreck unfolding in slow motion?
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Marcel Birgelen
Film God
Posts: 3357
From: Maastricht, Limburg, Netherlands
Registered: Feb 2012
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posted 04-08-2017 02:36 AM
I'm not sure if a year+ is realistic in the current market. After about 10 to 12 weeks, it will have almost completely disappeared from the first-run market. The sub-run market might pick it up from there, but in many countries around the globe, there is close to zero sub-run market. So, for large parts of the world, there will be no (legal) way to see this movie for many months to come.
You're giving the bootleggers a large chance to proliferate this way. Besides some crappy camcorder bootleg versions, we all know how good Hollywood is at leaking out high quality copies. Once they start circulating, your home video release will probably just fizzle.
I'm all for keeping the release window intact, but I'm afraid going back to year-long release cycles won't fly anymore.
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Steve Guttag
We forgot the crackers Gromit!!!
Posts: 12814
From: Annapolis, MD
Registered: Dec 1999
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posted 04-08-2017 05:24 PM
quote: Marcel Birgelen
I'm not sure if a year+ is realistic in the current market. After about 10 to 12 weeks
That is a circular argument, and likely why we are in our current situation. If movies were not so fast to hit the home, they'd likely last longer in the cinema. As the release approaches home release, there is less incentive to go to the cinema. Which is why VOD reduces the incentive to go the cinema to most.
quote: Marcel Birgelen
You're giving the bootleggers a large chance to proliferate this way.
An argument the studios that are super paranoid would likely thrust out. However, the bootlegs exist before the movie opens and definitely by the time the movie opens. If you aren't going to pay for the movie, you aren't going to pay for the movie. Is the theory that people are inherently thieves? Those are sales you weren't going to get anyway and putting it in the home sooner gets cleaner/better copies of the content for thieves to use. Your argument doesn't hold.
The problem, David, with that sort of strategy is that you "train your public" to again, wait for the home release because the B/C list movies will hit your formula and be out on release 4-6 weeks after the "break" (most horror movies get 1-2 weekends). Then people realize that if they wait a month or 2, they get the movie at home and again skip the theatre. I think your formula idea will work for the B/C list type movies but with adjustments. But on the A-List movies, just announce from the onset , that movie is a year plus on the home release. Again, you train people to come to the theatre (again).
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Marcel Birgelen
Film God
Posts: 3357
From: Maastricht, Limburg, Netherlands
Registered: Feb 2012
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posted 04-09-2017 05:26 PM
quote: Steve Guttag
An argument the studios that are super paranoid would likely thrust out. However, the bootlegs exist before the movie opens and definitely by the time the movie opens. If you aren't going to pay for the movie, you aren't going to pay for the movie. Is the theory that people are inherently thieves? Those are sales you weren't going to get anyway and putting it in the home sooner gets cleaner/better copies of the content for thieves to use. Your argument doesn't hold.
The longer a release gets postponed, the more people will have watched a bootlegged version, especially if there is a high quality version in circulation. You'll see that people that watched the illegally acquired version will talk about it to the people who usually just pay for their content. Eventually, some of those people will also end up with this bootlegged version.
Keeping people honest is also important. Keeping them honest is also giving them, at least to some extent, what they want. You don't need to cater to all their wishes right away, but if you keep ignoring them, they'll just bypass you, even if you've got the law on your side.
So, if the pirates can have it all and for (almost) nothing, having the people that are willing to pay wait indefinitely, will create a dangerous situation. It's the ground on which new pirates might breed.
quote: Steve Guttag
That is a circular argument, and likely why we are in our current situation. If movies were not so fast to hit the home, they'd likely last longer in the cinema. As the release approaches home release, there is less incentive to go to the cinema. Which is why VOD reduces the incentive to go the cinema to most.
We all seem to agree about that. An early VOD release will hurt the incentive to go to a proper cinema to see it. The question is, what is an acceptable release window?
I think it really differs from movie to movie, so I think I like David's idea of creating a more dynamic release window. Where a highly successful movie could have their VOD/home video release beyond the conventional 90-day window, but a turd could hit VOD/home rental within just a week or four.
I don't see any reason to hold on to exclusivity for the exhibition industry, when the movie is essentially out of circulation already.
Once this pattern gets hold, people know they'll have to wait longer for a highly anticipated movie, but they still have the opportunity to watch it on the big screen.
quote: Steve Guttag
The problem, David, with that sort of strategy is that you "train your public" to again, wait for the home release because the B/C list movies will hit your formula and be out on release 4-6 weeks after the "break" (most horror movies get 1-2 weekends). Then people realize that if they wait a month or 2, they get the movie at home and again skip the theatre. I think your formula idea will work for the B/C list type movies but with adjustments. But on the A-List movies, just announce from the onset , that movie is a year plus on the home release. Again, you train people to come to the theatre (again).
There are two factors that are important for this to work, then again, I think they're generally the "key to success":
- There should be more incentives for people to go to a proper movie theater than just exclusivity. They should be able to experience the movie, like they would not be able to at home.
- The movies should actually be worth it.
I know quite a few people that would visit a theater more often, but simply skip over, because they consider the movie sub-par and not worth going to the theater for it.
Would they actually go to the theater if they knew they would have to wait a year to go see it? I do have my doubts.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 04-09-2017 06:49 PM
quote: Marcel Birgelen
The longer a release gets postponed, the more people will have watched a bootlegged version, especially if there is a high quality version in circulation. You'll see that people that watched the illegally acquired version will talk about it to the people who usually just pay for their content. Eventually, some of those people will also end up with this bootlegged version.
The most obivous solution to this problem is getting rid of the screener discs. For all the extremes over security the studios use with DCPs it really doesn't make any sense at all for them to distribute screener discs to VIP types. If piracy was really affecting the bottom line of studio balance sheets as bad as they say then they would put an end to the screener disc crap. Obviously they consider the convenience of VIP types more important than thwarting piracy. So the whole thing seems like a bunch of hypocrisy.
quote: Marcel Birgelen
We all seem to agree about that. An early VOD release will hurt the incentive to go to a proper cinema to see it. The question is, what is an acceptable release window?
I think it really differs from movie to movie, so I think I like David's idea of creating a more dynamic release window. Where a highly successful movie could have their VOD/home video release beyond the conventional 90-day window, but a turd could hit VOD/home rental within just a week or four.
I don't see any reason to hold on to exclusivity for the exhibition industry, when the movie is essentially out of circulation already.
The big flaw in having a variable release window is that it totally rewards potential customers for staying away from the theater. If they avoid watching the theatrical release they are rewarded by getting the far cheaper home video version so much faster.
We have already clearly seen this is a slippery slope. The heads of media companies and movie studios are notoriously impatient and short sighted. It seems like they are more in the business of selling stock to investors than selling a product (movies) to customers. It's not enough to just make a profit. They have to make a greater level profit from one quarter to the next and are constantly trying to alter the business model to squeak out a little more money. If the plan works they're rewarded with huge bonuses. If it doesn't work they're fired. I think if every movie studio and movie theater company was privately held the movie industry would be far different. Release windows would certainly be respected far more.
quote: Marcel Birgelen
Would they actually go to the theater if they knew they would have to wait a year to go see it? I do have my doubts.
I don't. Right now customers suffer very little in the way of a wait penalty by not seeing a movie during its theatrical release. A 3 month wait is inconsequential. And we want to make the wait time even less? Home video sales are in the toilet. Personally I haven't bought any movie discs since our local Hastings store was liquidating its inventory several months ago.
The movie studios have turned movies into a big pile of glop commodity. Making movies worth it to see in the theater also translates into making movies good enough to buy on home video. The vast majority are not worth it. The rise of "all you can eat" movie & TV streaming services and vast improvement in broadband Internet quality lately has made it possible for people to stop building up video libraries. They just pull up Netflix, see what's on that new and press play. In most cases these days they're binge watching TV shows and not Hollywood movies. Netflix has trained customers to be even more impatient by releasing entire seasons of TV shows at once rather than incrementally releasing new episodes each week.
I can go by my own past experiences decades ago of missing a movie during its theatrical run and knowing the wait for the video release could be 9 months or more. If I was on the fence about whether or not to see a movie that had just been released I had to make up my mind quickly about it. That's not the case today. If I miss the theatrical 2K d-cinema release I only have to wait a short time to rent a Blu-ray version that looks good enough to be almost indistinguishable from the theatrical version.
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Marcel Birgelen
Film God
Posts: 3357
From: Maastricht, Limburg, Netherlands
Registered: Feb 2012
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posted 04-10-2017 01:54 AM
quote: Bobby Henderson
The big flaw in having a variable release window is that it totally rewards potential customers for staying away from the theater. If they avoid watching the theatrical release they are rewarded by getting the far cheaper home video version so much faster.
While there might be people thinking this way, I believe it will be hard getting people organized this way. Organizing a general boycott against a movie or maybe a studio for some other reason might be simpler than organizing a boycott against a theatrical release, just because some people don't want to watch it in the theater.
I think history has shown us, people will show up for a movie they actually want to see.
quote: Bobby Henderson
I don't. Right now customers suffer very little in the way of a wait penalty by not seeing a movie during its theatrical release. A 3 month wait is inconsequential. And we want to make the wait time even less?
It could be shorter but also far longer. I'm convinced movies can still have pretty long legs, if it's actually a movie worth watching. If you base it on global box office performance, most customers don't even know when it will hit the streets.
quote: Bobby Henderson
The movie studios have turned movies into a big pile of glop commodity. Making movies worth it to see in the theater also translates into making movies good enough to buy on home video. The vast majority are not worth it.
That's probably the real problem right there, don't you think?
I think the main reason for the seemingly vicious circle we're in is because the movies being released by the big studios really have become a pile of reheated crap. There are obviously other factors around us not really improving the situation, like the advent of those flat-rate services like Netflix or Amazon Prime. And, yes, Hollywood has always made a lot of bad movies throughout their history. Still, the root cause is simple: the movies being churned out are just generally crap, a decent movie, not just a good one, is becoming an exception. In contrast to that, some of the series currently being produced are pretty decent, some of them I'd even consider excellently written and executed.
Most people I know are pretty done with all the reboots, reheats and franchise milking until the cow turns to dust. Fortune favors the bold, so instead of putting anything north of $50M into special effects and A-list salaries, spend some of that money on an original story and premise to start with.
Given the choice between seeing just another turd in the cinema and pay premium for the privilege or binge watching some pretty decent stuff on TV, I think it's really a no-brainer for a lot of people.
So, in order to compensate for a bad theatrical release, the studio executives want to prematurely dump their stuff into the VOD market. Maybe they can get a huge one-off deal with a few of the providers and they managed to keep their shareholders happy for another quarter. It will only help to further the vicious circle. In order to break out of it, I really think at least some of them need to go belly up first. Let's call it the "human factor", we generally only start to act once it's practically too late already.
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