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This topic comprises 4 pages: 1 2 3 4
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Author
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Topic: The End Is Near - Go to the movies while you still can (Article)
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 04-10-2017 11:09 AM
quote: Marcel Birgelen
While there might be people thinking this way, I believe it will be hard getting people organized this way. Organizing a general boycott against a movie or maybe a studio for some other reason might be simpler than organizing a boycott against a theatrical release, just because some people don't want to watch it in the theater.
Boycott isn't the right term to use. Saving a lot of money is the correct term. It's very easy for public behavior to gravitate in that direction when that is the prime motivation. And we've seen it play out before.
Traditional video stores got badly wounded by Redbox kiosks renting movies for far less. Then Netflix finished the job with the even cheaper "all you can eat" model. Retail stores specializing in sales of movies, books and music have been pummeled. Music streaming services have definitely played a role in retail record stores disappearing. They've also put radio broadcast stations into a bad struggle of declining ratings and ad sales. Amazingly our nation's out of touch "lawmakers" are re-introducing the "Fair Play, Fair Pay" act, which is designed to get more royalty money from over the air radio stations. They're selling this legislation as means giving artists proper compensation for their work. But we all know how music labels routinely screw their talent and that most bands can only make a living via touring and merchandise sales. If passed the legislation might be enough to make radio stations in smaller towns go bust.
A couple can spend $40, $50 or more to watch a new movie at a theater. Or if they wait what seems to be an ever shorter amount of time they can rent the same movie for under $5. And their viewing experience will be just about as good as that 2K image in the cinema. 20-30 years ago viewers paid a steep penalty when choosing to wait for the video. The wait time was long. When the wait was over the home video version that was viewed was a low resolution, panned and scanned experience, typically viewed on a far more modest sized CRT TV screen.
The way I see it the movie studios are embarking on a path completely oblivious to the very strong possibility the path could be suicidal. They know they could kill the movie theater business, but seem ignorant their business could sink with the dying theaters. The death of movie theaters would be harmful to the larger retail business sector, which is also suffering badly. Movie theaters are a key anchor business for many shopping centers. They give people a reason to go to the shopping center rather than stay at home and order stuff off Amazon.
If there is anything that deserves a boycott it's online merchants like Amazon and Netflix. But people love saving money. So we'll see where this path of "race to the bottom economics" takes us.
quote: Marcel Birgelen
I think the main reason for the seemingly vicious circle we're in is because the movies being released by the big studios really have become a pile of reheated crap.
This one of the essential reasons why home video sales are declining so badly. Very few new movies released these days are worth viewing more than once. And even when you watch it for the first time you feel like you've seen the movie before numerous times. Like I said, the studios and their bosses have turned movies into a commodity of glop. Too many movies reek of joyless unoriginality. It's just chewing gum for the eyes and ears. These stock investor types calling the shots do not like taking chances on any new ideas. They prefer running their industry into the ground by trying to sell us the same old shit in a different wrapper, or a wrapper with a different sequel number on it.
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Mike Blakesley
Film God
Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99
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posted 04-10-2017 11:47 AM
quote: Bobby Henderson
if they wait what seems to be an ever shorter amount of time they can rent the same movie for under $5. And their viewing experience will be just about as good as that 2K image in the cinema.
No it won't. They're getting the picture and sound, sure, but beyond that, watching a movie in a good theater is NOTHING AT ALL like watching it in your same four walls. I don't think I need to list the reasons why again.
Now, if you want to trot out the same list of "annoyances" you experience in a theatre (talking patrons, cell phones being the biggest), I would submit that in any group of 5 or 10 people watching a movie, you're going to experience those same annoyances, with maybe a few more added on, in your house, unless you happen to have a very dedicated group of movie watchers. People are always touting the home experience as "more good" than the theater experience but it's not always that great. (In my own house, I can be more comfortable than I can in the theater, but since I have a cushy recliner I'm likely to fall asleep!)
quote: Bobby Henderson
Very few new movies released these days are worth viewing more than once. And even when you watch it for the first time you feel like you've seen the movie before numerous times.
That's not only because the ideas are retreads, but the trailers have already sketched out the entire story, including the ending, far too often.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 04-10-2017 02:25 PM
quote: Mike Blakesley
No it won't. They're getting the picture and sound, sure, but beyond that, watching a movie in a good theater is NOTHING AT ALL like watching it in your same four walls. I don't think I need to list the reasons why again.
Yes, watching a movie in a theater has its own pros and cons. But you have to admit the quality level of watching movies in the home is gigatic leaps and bounds above what it was 20 or 30 years ago when the theatrical release window was far more substantial.
Back then viewers got a serious audio/visual downgrade by skipping the theatrical release. If you rented a movie like Die Hard on VHS you saw only half the movie, thanks to the image being cropped by heavy panning and scanning. The 480i imagery that was preserved had a terrible color signal. VHS HiFi stereo was nothing like magnetic 6-track Dolby Stereo, if you were lucky enough to visit a theater showing a 70mm print. I almost forgot about the fines some video stores would levy if you forgot to rewind the tape. If home viewers thought the movie was good they likely had the passing thought, I should have watched that in the theater. They regret skipping the theatrical run.
That isn't the case today. If I skip seeing a movie in the theater and rent it a couple or so months later I don't feel like I've missed anything at all. The picture is not panned and scanned. And it has damned near the same pixel count at the theatrical version. The disc has lossless surround sound. My 65" TV screen doesn't have the scale of a movie theater screen, but it is pretty big for my living room and displays a far better looking image than an old CRT TV set. The 'scope image on my HDTV screen might be letter-boxed, but it's letter-boxed on the theater's un-masked common width screen too.
That window of exclusivity is the only thing keeping theaters afloat. If the window is made narrow enough or eliminated the theaters will go bust. Not enough people value the experience of watching movies together in a group, audience setting. They certainly don't value it enough to choose it over watching at home if both choices are made available at the same time or timed closely together.
quote: Mike Blakesley
That's not only because the ideas are retreads, but the trailers have already sketched out the entire story, including the ending, far too often.
I rarely even watch the movie trailers anymore unless they're trailers running before I movie I'm watching in a theater. I used to watch a lot of movie trailers on movie discs and web sites in addition to the theater. These days movie trailers not only spoil big parts of the movie, but they are slapped together in a repetitive fashion even more painfully derivative than the retreaded movies. Today's trailers have the same boom, whoosh sounds. They use the same pieces of editing clip art style, like all the rapid fade-in, fade-out, fade-in, fade-out strobe image ploys. They have become a parody of themselves. They're like disco or hair band metal after passing the point of being lame.
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Marcel Birgelen
Film God
Posts: 3357
From: Maastricht, Limburg, Netherlands
Registered: Feb 2012
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posted 04-14-2017 05:37 AM
quote: Bobby Henderson
Boycott isn't the right term to use. Saving a lot of money is the correct term. It's very easy for public behavior to gravitate in that direction when that is the prime motivation. And we've seen it play out before.
quote: Bobby Henderson
This one of the essential reasons why home video sales are declining so badly. Very few new movies released these days are worth viewing more than once. And even when you watch it for the first time you feel like you've seen the movie before numerous times. Like I said, the studios and their bosses have turned movies into a commodity of glop. Too many movies reek of joyless unoriginality. It's just chewing gum for the eyes and ears. These stock investor types calling the shots do not like taking chances on any new ideas. They prefer running their industry into the ground by trying to sell us the same old shit in a different wrapper, or a wrapper with a different sequel number on it.
If it's not good enough for "premium home video", can we really blame the public they'll stay home and wait until it appears on some all-you-can-watch subscription they happen to have anyway?
There obviously is a link between release window and theater performance, but I think the primary problem here is that movies have become just a bland and tasteless form of entertainment. The often uninviting entourage of the average multiplex surely doesn't help to improve that image.
I'd say from my experience, people are a bunch of impulsive creatures. So if it's marketed correctly and people really want to see it, they will still go to the theater, especially if the theater still delivers good value.
No matter what release strategy you choose, there will always be trade-offs. I think we can all agree on the fact that generic same-day releases will hurt both the exhibition industry and the studios, probably even to a breaking point for both of them. Why anybody would want to embark on such a suicide mission is beyond me.
Personally, I think a generic year+ window will dramatically hurt the "after theater" market for bad performing movies. If they performed bad at the theater, chances are, people really don't want to see it. An early release to the "after theater" market will probably allow them to recoup some of their losses, especially because they could save on marketing costs. If still nobody wants to see it, it was a write-off anyway.
Therefore I think a "rolling release window", with pre-set conditions of what happens when, would be the best compromise for both the studios and the exhibition industry. If executed correctly, I think it would also yield the biggest margins for both. Obviously, it's just theory, but why not try this with a few select releases?
quote: Bobby Henderson
That isn't the case today. If I skip seeing a movie in the theater and rent it a couple or so months later I don't feel like I've missed anything at all. The picture is not panned and scanned. And it has damned near the same pixel count at the theatrical version. The disc has lossless surround sound. My 65" TV screen doesn't have the scale of a movie theater screen, but it is pretty big for my living room and displays a far better looking image than an old CRT TV set. The 'scope image on my HDTV screen might be letter-boxed, but it's letter-boxed on the theater's un-masked common width screen too.
Nowadays, I do have a proper screening room at my disposal. And yes, it's even DCI compliant. Both sound, image and general level of immersion will outperform most run-of-the-mill proper theater auditoria out there. The seats are more comfortable than the most expensive VIP seats out there. You can pause the movie any time you want, you can drink or eat anything you want. Do I use it for friends sometimes? Yes, but primarily for "old" movies that cannot be easily seen at a theater anymore.
So, even though I have all the aspects of the general theater at my disposal, I still like to go out to the movies, together with friends. It's hard to describe in words, but there's still something special, something you cannot recreate in a home theater or screening room that fits at most 6 or so persons.
Exclusivity is probably part of that feeling, but also the feeling of enjoying something together. While watching a movie isn't exactly like watching a baseball game in a ballpark, there's still something in common here.
quote: Mike Blakesley
That's not only because the ideas are retreads, but the trailers have already sketched out the entire story, including the ending, far too often.
They should be called Movie Summaries and not Movie Trailers... I honestly don't understand why it is so hard to create a trailer capable of building anticipation without showing too much plot details, twists and even endings. Maybe the premises of many of those movies are already so weak, they literally don't have sufficient material to put in there otherwise.
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Monte L Fullmer
Film God
Posts: 8367
From: Nampa, Idaho, USA
Registered: Nov 2004
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posted 04-28-2017 04:18 AM
I want to add with this after coming in late and mention that this scare reminds a lot of us when, in the audio industry, vinyl was the way to listen to music.
Then, out came the tape methods of reel, 8trk and cassette.
8 track died first, reel slowly faded into the sunset, but not completely for a good number of hobbyists, and cassette followed suit with the reel.
Then, here comes the "Knight in Shining Armour" being the CD that pushed these analog products almost out the window overnight, with the LP taking the first thrust from the sword to the heart where it all began.
Now, a generation have passed and the LP is on the return, tape is making a comeback, et.al. The love for the analog sound is attracting many and the CD is fading away to be exchanged with personal devices along with compressed sound.
Yes, now we swing to the visual side of the spectrum and "yes," it seems that Home Cinema is now the new "Knight in Shining Armour" when it comes to screen presentation entertainment.
But once again, the sword is trying to thrust toward the heart being the cinema themselves, yet one simple thing that is saving the cinema industry, as the 'shield:' people still want to get out of the house to be entertained and witness the magic that began with the magic lantern shows in storefront locations a good hundred plus years ago.
Even the interest of the Drive-In is returning with potential new builds with multiscreen locations and huge concession stands.
No, I do believe as long as there is a movie to go see, it will be attended by someone.
-Monte
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Mike Blakesley
Film God
Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99
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posted 04-28-2017 12:19 PM
quote: Dennis Benjamin
I've been told for 27 years that the theatre business is a dying business, yet, here I am.
Same here, except for me it's been 38 years.
Before my time, the advent of TV was going to kill the business. It didn't, but then COLOR TV was for SURE going to kill it.
When I got into the biz, the biggest worry was that a movie would get to network TV before we'd have a chance to play it. Then Cable TV came along, and that was going to kill the business. Then videotapes were going to kill it, but you had to rewind them, take them back to the store, etc.
Arcade games...they were FOR SURE going to kill the biz, because teenagers were spending all their quarters on games instead of going to the movies.
Then HOME video games were definitely going to kill the arcades, and the theaters along with them, because kids would save their money and stay home playing games. (The arcades indeed died, because the home experience was exactly the same as in an arcade. And for some reason, these death-predicting pundits always seem to think that kids are the only people who go to the movies.)
Then DVD came along, also failing to kill the theaters. Then flat-screen TVs....since they're shaped more like a theater screen, OH YEAH that was going to definitely kill the movie business. The "home theater" trend would for sure, with its big sound systems being the-same-yet-not-the-same as the theatrical experience. For sure that would kill the theaters, except...it didn't.
Now streaming is seen as the next thing that's going to kill the business. Considering how accurate all the previous death notices have been, I guess I won't start writing my theater's obituary just yet.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 04-28-2017 02:41 PM
quote: Dennis Benjamin
The motion picture industry will never die.
I believe the motion picture industry can indeed die. It is a very real, mathematic possibility.
A bunch of business people are holding onto this belief "the movie industry will never die" to rationalize self destructive schemes, like day and date release of movies in theaters and home video simultaneously. They are taking the perceived resilience of movie theaters totally for granted. Even if movie theaters have been around in some form for over a century they can still become a thing of the past.
Every movie theater has overhead and requires a certain minimum amount of money coming into the cash registers in order to continue operating. If a theater falls below its break-even point for too long a period it will go out of business.
All these business people on the movie distribution side and home viewing platforms just think they can keep pushing their luck with these accounting ploys designed to speed up the cash flow cycle and not suffer any consequences. Obviously these clowns have not been looking at the recent struggles of retail stores and restaurants. They must have missed out on the fact that retail video sales and rental stores have vanished across most of the country.
quote: Monte L Fullmer
Now, a generation have passed and the LP is on the return, tape is making a comeback, et.al. The love for the analog sound is attracting many and the CD is fading away to be exchanged with personal devices along with compressed sound.
The resurgence of analog is a niche, specialty phenomenon and not something the general public is embracing.
I don't know the retail situation in Idaho, but there are no longer any retail music stores that sell things like vinyl LPs in my region. Hastings Books, Music & Video was the last actual music store in my town. Others, like Sam Goody, disappeared years before. Vinyl LPs aren't the best thing to buy via mail order from places like Amazon. I had my own bad experiences ordering Vinyl LPs from Columbia House back when I was in high school. Vinyl LPs usually do a better job selling themselves when you can actually pick up the large product in a real retail store.
The Vinyl LP resurgence analogy doesn't really apply to the fate of the movie industry. Music listeners shifting from Vinyl LPs to 8-track tapes, Cassette Tapes and Music CD were supporting the music industry all along. They were buying the same product but in a different package and recording platform. This is a little like movies going from silent films to talkies then in color and then digital. People were still watching the movie in a theater even if the equipment in the booth and type of movie print used changed.
The Vinyl LP resurgence isn't much of a resurgence either. The music industry has been suffering with its own sales cannibalism. Whether it was legal or illegal downloads, iTunes or Napster, a huge amount of the music buying public shifted from buying entire albums of music to buying only one song at a time for far less money. Far fewer albums are being sold now than 30 years ago when the music industry was at its contemporary peak.
In recent years an even worse thing has happened for the music industry: music streaming. In 2016 streaming services made up more than 50% of all US music industry revenue for the first time, 51% for a total of $3.9 billion. In 2015 streaming made up 34% of the industry's revenue. Most of that is via paid subscriptions to services like Spotify, Apple Music and Amazon Prime. At the same time digital download purchases dropped 22% in 2016 (to $1.8 billion) and physical CD sales dropped 16% (to $1.7 billion). The RIAA is up in arms about this, complaining ad-supported streaming services aren't contributing enough.
So while some audiophiles may be embracing vinyl and even getting power amps using vacuum tubes the overall business trend for the music industry going rapidly in the opposite, lower quality direction.
quote: Dennis Benjamin
As far as comparing what's happened to the music industry: The bands making music HAVE TO GO ON TOUR to turn any type of profit. What happens when a band goes on tour? A WHOLE BUNCH OF PEOPLE PAY MONEY TO GO SEE THE BAND IN A PLACE WITH A WHOLE BUNCH OF OTHER PEOPLE. Hmmm, does that sound familiar?
Concerts have been turning into their own shit show lately.
A couple of my coworkers returned from a trip to Las Vegas a few days ago. While they were there they paid $80 per ticket to see The Chainsmokers in concert. The show was supposed to start around 9:00pm or 10:00pm. Well after midnight the duo still hand't taken the stage. About 1:00am my coworkers gave up on waiting hours to see these DJ douchebags and left the place. Amazingly, the fucking venue gave no refunds! This kind of thing is not new. All sorts of pop and rock stars have had pissy fits backstage that led to show cancellations. Or they come on hours later than the start time of the show. Never mind that a good number of people in the audience hired babysitters to be there, have to be at work early in the morning or other things that afflict us commoners. Never mind the crazy insane prices the fans had to pay for the tickets (often to scalping companies whose online bots buy up nearly all the tickets the instant they go on sale).
The same tardiness syndrome affects smaller music venues. Sometimes they'll load the bill with multiple opening acts so that even when all the bands are doing their jobs properly the headliner still doesn't take the stage until a ridiculously late hour. When they take the stage there's a chance they might be lip syncing or reading from a teleprompter karaoke-style.
quote: Mike Blakesley
Before my time, the advent of TV was going to kill the business. It didn't, but then COLOR TV was for SURE going to kill it.
Again, back then it could literally take years after a movie's theatrical debut for it to appear on TV.
quote: Mike Blakesley
Arcade games...they were FOR SURE going to kill the biz, because teenagers were spending all their quarters on games instead of going to the movies.
I seem to remember the music industry being more up in arms about coin-operated video games and video game consoles. They didn't want teens sinking dollars in video games when they could be spending that money on music albums.
quote: Mike Blakesley
Now streaming is seen as the next thing that's going to kill the business. Considering how accurate all the previous death notices have been, I guess I won't start writing my theater's obituary just yet.
Streaming alone won't kill the movie theater industry. But streaming is doing a pretty good job cannibalizing the home video industry's sales. Shrink that theatrical release window down short enough and it will indeed kill the industry.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 04-28-2017 03:38 PM
I already see the "only in theaters" tag line on some TV commercials for new movie releases. The exclusive window is key to the survival of movie theaters. But the exclusive window has to be long enough and solid enough. The latest trends in piracy are worrisome, but I really don't think shrinking the window to little or nothing is any way to battle the problem. That's like someone taking cyanide to kill his cancer.
These damned modded Fire Sticks loaded with piracy apps are a really serious problem for the entire movie industry, especially theaters. I can't believe how many people have those things. Last night I was having a few beers with one of my friends at a local bar. Two ladies near us started talking about pay TV services. One of them said she was a cord-cutter, just using an outdoor antenna for local channels, Netflix & Hulu for TV shows and her Fire Stick for movies. She was so happy about all the money she was saving. Then they started talking about the different people or places selling the devices, "Oh, I have to get one of those."
Net Neutrality in the US looks like it will die a fast death soon. Once the laws are changed I can imagine the movie industry weighing heavily on ISPs to block the IP addresses where these Fire Sticks, Kodi boxes, etc. are connecting. It will probably create a nice inconvenient mess, blocking out legit domains in the process. I wouldn't put it past the ISPs to start charging premium rates to access sites like Netflix or even YouTube at high speed. Our state government wants to make Internet users in Oklahoma pay a $20 tax in order to access known porn web sites.
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