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Author Topic: Your choice of five films this year. Jeremy Fuentes Mmmm, Dr. Pepper! Posts: 1168 From: Corpus Christi, TX United States Registered: Jan 2004 posted 05-12-2004 05:58 AM                     I didn't realize that you were only counting North American box office amounts. I guess if you dont mention it in you original post you can always add it later so that way you are never wrong.  |  IP: Logged Kamakshipalya Dhananjay Expert Film Handler Posts: 190 From: Bangalore, India Registered: Aug 2002 posted 05-12-2004 08:52 AM                     Well, I dont have to do that. I could plainly admit I was wrong. And I did go wrong, twice. Once with PASSION - final tally short of 400 million. Then with ETERNAL.. - current tally far short of 100 million. Though, I am pleased to tell you this film, ETERNAL.. is quite behaving like how a blockbuster does in its final days. And I dont know much about European exhibition scenario yet. So, I am always reffering only to North American grosses.  |  IP: Logged Jeremy Fuentes Mmmm, Dr. Pepper! Posts: 1168 From: Corpus Christi, TX United States Registered: Jan 2004 posted 05-12-2004 09:03 AM                     Okay, now I understand. I just figured box office numbers were box office numbers, regardless of where in the world the movie is showing. Its not like foreign box office revenues go to a different movie company or something, they all go to the same place. Their money is just as acceptable as ours when it comes to movie companies.  |  IP: Logged Kamakshipalya Dhananjay Expert Film Handler Posts: 190 From: Bangalore, India Registered: Aug 2002 posted 05-13-2004 11:42 PM                     So, I am going to scratch off VAN HELSING from the list. It has disappointed. And next disappointment is - May.19 - SHREK 2. However, this discussion started off as 'choice of 5 films' and my first choice in that list is : May.14 - TROY. Essentially, I predicted not less than 150 million dollars in its entire run in North America. I stand by that prediction. However, I dont know yet whether to expect this film to deliver the 200 million or so that the 'choice list' seeks.  |  IP: Logged Jeremy Fuentes Mmmm, Dr. Pepper! Posts: 1168 From: Corpus Christi, TX United States Registered: Jan 2004 posted 05-14-2004 06:00 AM                     Good luck with your predictions.  |  IP: Logged Darryl Spicer Film God Posts: 3250 From: Lexington, KY, USA Registered: Dec 2000 posted 05-14-2004 10:49 AM                    Here is one thing to consider now when it comes to the summer films. Looks like more film companies are agreeing to agragated distribution deals with exhibitors. Look for a lot of prints to be in theaters on the first week of release. In some cases as many as 8 screens for large megaplex. Movies will probably break box office records on openings before bad word of mouth gets out and kills the business. I look for Shrek 2 to possably break some records this next week. Just because there is going to be so many screens playing the movie.  |  IP: Logged Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 05-15-2004 01:55 PM                        Here are a couple of excerpts from the IME report on the "disappointing" Shrek 2: ...just plain fun from start to finish... ...should be a smash with all audiences... ...(expect) great word-of-mouth, and steady business throughout the summer season.... ...the rare sequel that improves upon the original... Doesn't sound too disappointing. IME predicts $300 million plus.  |  IP: Logged Richard Greco Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1180 From: Plant City, FL Registered: Nov 2003 posted 05-16-2004 08:43 AM                     You gotta see though Mike, that KD has NO idea how box office business works in North America.I think that 90 % of his dissapointment list is wrong.  |  IP: Logged Tim Lockridge Film Handler Posts: 20 From: Indiana, USA Registered: Jul 2002 posted 05-16-2004 03:23 PM                     Looks like the opening weekend estimates for Troy place it at approx 46 million... which, while not bad for an R-rated 3hr long film, finds it somewhat off pace for a 200mil North America gross (and prob the 150mil predicted in this thread). On another note, pre-release hype for Shrek 2 in my area is running pretty high.  |  IP: Logged Brad Miller Administrator Posts: 17775 From: Plano, TX (36.2 miles NW of Rockwall) Registered: May 99 posted 05-16-2004 04:32 PM                     Does anyone else wish Hollywood would stop counting dollars and start counting actual tickets sold?  |  IP: Logged Phil Hill I love my cootie bug Posts: 7595 From: Hollywood, CA USA Registered: Mar 2000 posted 05-16-2004 05:03 PM                  Unfortunately that will never happen since "Hollywood" is ass-kissing their "bosses". It's the New York (read: Wall Street) "people" that dictate it be $$$ so they can "guide" their flock. What a bunch of crap! >>> Phil  |  IP: Logged Richard Greco Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1180 From: Plant City, FL Registered: Nov 2003 posted 05-20-2004 08:17 AM                     quote: Jeremy Fuentes was the last to post So, I still maintain it is going to find it difficult to breach that 100 million mark. Hrmmmm. According to boxofficemojo.com, Van Helsing is @ 87.8 million.... DUDE, are you just counting opening weekends? This movie made 87.8 mil in 12 days and is still selling very well at my theatre. Enough with the lame predictions. I can't wait to rub it in when Shrek 2 gets close to 100 mil on opening weekend!  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 05-20-2004 11:07 AM                     "Van Helsing" may cross the $100 million mark in North America, but will not get very far past it. In its 2nd weekend, sales dropped off 60%. Considering ticket price inflation, it is NOT impressive at all for a movie to gross $100 million. And with the cost of production, marketing, etc., it is easy for a major release to gross $100 million and still be a financial failure. This is certainly what I expect to see happen with "Troy." Movie gross reports are stupid anyway. With ticket prices varying from $7 to $12 (or higher), it doesn't take a whole lot of attendance for a movie to hit the $100 million or even $200 million mark. For a movie to be a qualified hit, I think it should have to sell 25 million tickets in North America. If it can get to the 50 million mark, then it can be called a blockbuster. Of course, "Titanic" is probably the only recent release that hits that 50 million level. Movie studios like reporting a movie's earnings in dollars for a variety of reasons. One of the biggest reasons is how ticket price inflation will create new "all time box office champs" every few years. "Spiderman" was a mediocre movie at best, yet made over $400 million in North America. If the movie studios actually counted tickets sold and reported that, "Gone With the Wind" would still be the all time box office champ. The studios would really have to bust their ass to get people into the movie theaters. At this point, I have doubts if they really care. They seem more concerned with the DVD release. At least in home video sales, I'm pretty sure they count actual units sold to determine sales leaders.  |  IP: Logged Kamakshipalya Dhananjay Expert Film Handler Posts: 190 From: Bangalore, India Registered: Aug 2002 posted 05-23-2004 10:35 AM                     Van Helsing will cross that 100 million but the question would be how much more than that will it mop up ? Agreed, I predicted that Van Helsing will find it difficult to cross a 100 million. I was wrong. But still, is it going to hold steady ? Not at all. As for Troy, it is not clear still whether it will cross the 150 million I predicted. I dont know now whether it will. If it does, I can be glad that I got the first one of "choice of five films" right. As for Shrek 2, I was wrong, completely. This one looks to make 90+ million in its first five days. However, though I was wrong here, I guess I could say Shrek 2 is not going to be impressive beyond the opening weekend. Monday numbers will prove that the mad rush for the weekend simply exhausted the demographic that this movie targets. As for Day After Tomorrow, I will maintain my initial prediction - a doubtful 100 million, but if a 100 million is crossed, it will give up soon after that. Please remember, the "disappointing list" meant that the films in that will find it difficult to cross the 100 million and if they do however, they would not wander very far from that mark.  |  IP: Logged Darryl Spicer Film God Posts: 3250 From: Lexington, KY, USA Registered: Dec 2000 posted 05-23-2004 10:50 AM                    Shrek 2 estimated 92 million in 4 days and counting.  |  IP: Logged

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