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Topic: Dolby's new sound system
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 03-03-2014 04:25 PM
quote: Terry Lynn-Stevens
I would say the future of Dolby is riding on the shoulders of Atmos in the home segment. If Atmos does not succeed long term (which I think it won't) then Dolby has no future.
Bullshit.
Dolby Digital is ubiquitous in TV broadcasting and content streaming via services like Netflix. An electronics company can't sell TV sets, computers, receivers, game consoles, etc. without including Dolby Digital decoding.
Dolby Atmos is a prestige brand that gets them back into commercial cinemas in a public way (even though they sell a great deal of booth hardware movie theater customers don't see). Atmos gives them the high end halo needed to back up all those other Dolby brands that were quickly getting relegated outside of the cinema.
quote: Terry Lynn-Stevens
You might think I might be overemphasizing the mobile segment but Dolby has clearly recognized that mobile is essential. Dolby is on record and has said that in order for Dolby to grow in the future it is from the mobile area.
I've got some bad news for Dolby. If they think mobile is essential to their business they came a few years too late to the party.
Mobile is well on its way to being in the same place as the traditional personal computer. The market is absolutely saturated. Sales trends clearly show customers are growing sour on the cycle of buying new phones or tablets every 18-24 months. Why replace a 2 year old smart phone that still works with a new phone that can't offer any new "must have" features? Smart phones are transforming from an "I want" piece of bling for others to envy to being a mere tool that only needs to be replaced/upgraded when it breaks or no longer works properly.
There's little if any room for new growth in the mobile market. Investors have made just about all the money they're going to make in that arena. It's time to move on to something else.
There are plenty of other things customers don't like about their mobile phone service, $100+ per month bills being one of them. We're going to see a lot more in the way of people keeping their old phones and going to rival carriers for cheaper contracts. T-Mobile is pushing the ball in that direction. It looks likely Sprint may engage in some price wars, given Softbank's CEO has taken over the Japanese market that way.
Applying Dolby Atmos-branded technology to headphones sounds like a solution in search of a problem. Most people only listen to music, watch YouTube style videos and peruse other social media content on smart phones. Surround sound, even simulated, isn't needed for any of that. Honestly, I don't think customers are going to give a damn about it. I'm a big surround sound fan, but I don't take headphone solutions and small screen viewing seriously at all for watching movies. I'm not going to spend $199 plus all the extra fees and shit (making it over $300 -plus contract renewal) to get some Atmos-branded crap bundled into a smart phone.
quote: Terry Lynn-Stevens
They did, I think they hired some former Apple marketing expert.
Hiring a marketing guy who used to work for Apple is absolutely no guarantee for success. Look at just how deep Ron Johnson plunged JCPenney into the toilet with his vision.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 03-04-2014 10:25 PM
quote: Terry Lynn-Stevens
The mobile segment (tablets/cell phone) is emerging, mobile is replacing optical/PC/ and some broadcasting. Mobile is not subject to include Dolby. This is the segment that they are losing out.
Two things.
First, a news flash for you, Terry, Dolby is one of the developers behind the Advanced Audio Codec, better known as AAC. Dolby (along with co-developers AT&T Bell Labs, Fraunhofer IIS, Sony & Nokia) earn royalties off AAC decoding technology included in just about every mobile phone and tablet made currently. I'm kind of foggy on how well the Dolby AC-3 codec is supported in mobile devices, but I would suspect most do support it since a lot of MPEG-4 AVC encoded videos contain Dolby Digital audio streams.
Second, I'll repeat my statement how "the bloom has fallen off the rose" in terms of market growth. The developed world has become saturated with smart phones and those markets are now experiencing serious fatique in terms of product upgrade cycles and service plan prices. At the recent Mobile World Congress convention cheap phones for emerging markets took center stage. Companies like Apple, Samsung, HTC and others can't get away with the same high priced strategies in markets like China. They have to figure out how to sell a $100 smart phone or even a $25 smart phone and still make some kind of profit, even if it is miniscule in a per item basis.
I think Dolby is doing just fine with mobile, at least on the audio end of things. Perhaps they might be able to apply some of their Dolby Vision stuff into new OLED phone displays. I just don't see Atmos being relevant at all for a headphone-based portable device, such as a tablet or phone. That's like trying to fit a 155mm Howitzer artillery round into a handgun.
quote: Terry Lynn-Stevens
For example: As PCs continue to be replaced by cell phones and tablets, Dolby loses out if those tablets are not equipped with Dolby technology.
Yet another HUGE misunderstanding. Smart phones and tablets are not replacing traditional computers. I wrote this post on a real computer, not my smart phone. I can't run my graphics programs on my phone or a tablet. Hell, I can't even use standard office applications in an efficient, productive manner on a portable device. I gotta have something with a substantial monitor, real keyboard, real processing horsepower and lots of storage capacity. Mobile devices don't provide that.
People do a lot of playing on portable devices. To get a lot of work done you need a real computer for that.
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Terry Lynn-Stevens
Phenomenal Film Handler
Posts: 1081
From: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Registered: Dec 2012
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posted 03-04-2014 11:42 PM
quote: Mike Blakesley
+1 to that. I keep hearing about how mobile devices are "replacing" desktop computers, but what they forget to mention is that desktops are used for ACTUAL WORK or data production, where mobile devices are used much more for CONSUMPTION.
Mike, let's not be silly here, everyone knows that they will need a desktop or a laptop for somewhat serious work, most people can get by with a tablet, I know at least 10 people who do not use laptops or desktops anymore. There is no doubt that the data is showing that the average person is replacing their laptop with a tablet purchase. There will probably be a market right now for the PC as we know it, but the ceiling for tablets is not determined.
The market share for PCs is simply declining while tablets are increasing year after year.
Here is some of the latest data:
The PC Market Is Doomed To Shrink For Another Four Years, Researchers Predict
Here's yet another gloomy report for the PC market. Even though 2013 was the worst decline on record, the market hasn't hit rock bottom yet and will continue to shrink until at least 2018, market research firm IDC says.
In 2013, the PC market declined by 9.8%, IDC says. That's a tiny bit better than how IDC thought it would go down - it had predicted a 10.1% decline.
IDC's 2013 numbers echo the report from another market research firm, Gartner. Gartner said that 2013 shipments were down 10%, the worst decline in PC history. As of the fourth quarter of 2013, the market had been shrinking for almost two years straight, seven quarters in a row.
Instead of replacing older PCs, people are buying tablets and smartphones. In emerging markets, where most of the PC growth used to happen, people are also skipping the PC for tablets and smartphones. But in some cases the economy is so soft, they aren't buying new devices at all.
In the corporate world, the last of the Windows XP PCs are finally being replaced with newer PCs. But that bit of corporate shopping hasn't offset the general downward trend.
The PC Market Is Doomed To Shrink For Another Four Years, Researchers Predict
quote: Chris Slycord
A big percentage of those licensing and royalty revenues were obviously included in his "hardware sales" statement.
I am assuming you took a look at the Dolby info?
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