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This topic comprises 9 pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
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Author
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Topic: Let's guess Avatar's 1st weekend gross and 2nd weekend drop %
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Mike Blakesley
Film God
Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99
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posted 12-18-2009 11:44 PM
Apparently midnight-show ticket sales for Avatar aren't anything spectacular...I wonder if the movie isn't going to be that big, OR if people are coming to their senses and foregoing midnight shows. There's also the fact that this isn't a sequel, which might have made a difference.
This is from the movies blog at the Orlando Sentinel :
quote: Roger Moore wrote:
The first hint that Avatar ain't Titanic II, or New Moon Redux?
It only sold $3.5 million in tickets, all over the country last night.
Hyped to death, and it made one ninth what New Moon made, one/seventh what the last Harry Potter pulled in.
The weekend will be big, but expectations may start tamping down right about now.
“Avatar” may be the highest-profile movie of the year, but it’s not one that got out hordes of fans late at night.
James Cameron’s new 3-D science-fiction flick grossed $3.54 million from shows that started at or soon after midnight last night in the U.S. and Canada, according to distributor 20th Century Fox.
Despite the huge hype for the film, there turned out to be a relatively small number of Cameron devotees who turned out to watch a two-hour-and-42-minute film after 12 a.m.
The top-grossing midnight debuts of all time, November’s “The Twilight Saga: New Moon” and July’s “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” started off with $26.3 million and $22.2 million, respectively.
Those movies, like most with big midnight bows, were sequels or adaptations with a built-in fan base eager to see the newest installment of their favorite series as soon as possible.
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Julio Roberto
Jedi Master Film Handler
Posts: 938
From: Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Registered: Oct 2008
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posted 12-19-2009 08:11 AM
I can only say that the "grand opening" in an area of 50.000 people in Spain drew a crowd for the only 4 friday showings splitted in 2 locations (15 minutes apart) of less than 1000 total. Peak weekend-days in this area for a record hit-film can draw almost 4000 each day.
Still, it's not that unsual for the opening to be sort-of-weak and then pick-up. But there were no "external reasons" (no soccer games, no bad weather) and this film did slightly weaker than expected even when expectations were moderate to begin with.
Don't know if this was a trend nationwide or what. The film has been hyped to high heavens on TV with all the news reporting the "Amazing new technology that will knock your socks off like nothing you have ever-ever-ever seen before"
Predictions for those in the know for this film's first weekend in Spain are €7m, which is very good, but not record-breaking or anything. New Moon, which surpassed expectations, did better.
Still, this film has very little/no competition at the boxoffice right now and will be cleared in the top-houses 3D screens for months with nothing else 3D to be shown til March.
Avatar is bound to do well nonetheless. Complete different story would be if it opened against Full Moon and a new strong 3D film opened a month from now.
Let's not forget the ever-increasing ticket prices and 3D surcharges that inflate the numbers somewhat.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2635&p=.htm
quote:
Avatar’ Shows Promise in Midnight Launch by Brandon Gray
December 18, 2009
In its midnight launch, Avatar pulled in $3.537 million at approximately 2,000 sites. 3D runs accounted for 85 percent of the gross. While such midnight grosses are not necessarily indicative of how the full weekend will play out, the initial sampling was nonetheless strong for a movie with no predecessors.
The three biggest midnight openings are The Twilight Saga: New Moon's $26.3 million, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince's $22.2 million and The Dark Knight's $18.5 million. However, those were sequels with rabid fan bases, therefore it would have been unrealistic to expect Avatar to come anywhere near them.
More comparable to Avatar would be I Am Legend, the movie that currently holds the December opening weekend record ($77.2 million). Its midnight start was $1.7 million at around 1,100 sites, a mere fraction of its $30.1 million opening day. Another epic adventure with a long runtime like Avatar, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, earned around $4 million in its midnight debut, leading to an $18.2 million first day (though it opened on a Wednesday). Earlier this year, Watchmen logged $4.55 million out of the gate at midnight but fizzled quickly, while Star Trek blasted off with $4 million from Thursday night previews and had generated $79.2 million by Sunday.
Avatar director James Cameron's last picture, Titanic, set sail on the same weekend in 1997. While no figures are available for its midnight showings, the romantic epic grossed $8.7 million on its opening day, or the equivalent of around $14 million adjusted for ticket price inflation. That was a blockbuster kick-off in those days, but it, of course, had legendary longevity as well, ultimately becoming the highest-grossing movie ever at $600.8 million.
Beyond its midnight start, Avatar strikes approximately 5,000 screens at 3,452 sites this weekend. That includes 3,129 screens at 2,038 3D sites (179 of which are IMAX), which is slightly less than A Christmas Carol (2009)'s debut at 2,045 3D sites (and 181 IMAX sites). Avatar also has a massive foreign campaign, striking 13,795 screens (including 3,941 3D screens) in 106 territories this weekend, and it's scheduled to reach 17,222 screens (including 5,360 screens) in 120 territories later on. Counter-programming Avatar this weekend is romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans?, which debuts on around 3,000 screens at 2,718 sites.
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Julio Roberto
Jedi Master Film Handler
Posts: 938
From: Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Registered: Oct 2008
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posted 12-19-2009 04:56 PM
Well,
The $74m estimate for Avatar weekend total intake, considering the 3D surcharges and early openings since wednesday, would still be slightly behind movies like "I am lengend" that opened December to $77.2m. And that's not adjusting inflation. And, of course, quite behind true block busters like Twilight or Dark Knight.
Still, very strong performer. Sure hit.
As I said, this movie would probably "deserve" to be a $50m weekend maker but, due to the lack of competition, having the top-brand-new 3D houses for itself, the 3D surcharges, the massive marketing and outregous hypeing, sheer number of screens engaged, inflation, base of VERY commited fanboys buying 20 tickets each in advance, busy Xmas season, early showings, etc, etc, it's bound to do very good numbers.
But probably not record-shattering numbers. Read somewhere this film would have to gross over $800m in the theatrical run just to recover its production/marketing cost.
How much $$ are Imax tickets on the average for this film?
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Julio Roberto
Jedi Master Film Handler
Posts: 938
From: Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Registered: Oct 2008
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posted 12-20-2009 01:29 AM
At an estimated $27 million on the first day, it would be the third highest grossing single-day film to open in December behind Lord of the Rings and I Am Legend (even less if we adjust for inflation and in number of viewers due to the 3D surcharge and expensive Imax engagements).
Of course, if we account year-round instead of just December, Avatar's projected $74m for the entire weekend goes way behind films like The Dark Knight ($158.5m), Spider-Man 3 ($151m), The Twilight New Moon ($143m), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($135.5m), Shrek the Third ($121.5m), Spider-Man ($114.8m), Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End ($114.7), Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen /($109m), Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith ($108.5) and another dozen or two.
Avatar would pbbly rank around number 25 best weekend opening ever, not accounting for inflation (or for 3D surcharges). So VERY good numbers, just not super-duper record breaking at all.
We also have to remember that a lot of theatres world-wide converted to 3D just for this film and the patrons in that area are going to "check it out" since it's the very first time ever they see something in 3-D, thus the "novelty factor" that also attracts new viewers regardless if the film is that good or not.
To make matters even better, their "opening competition", Did You Hear About the Morgans, is getting TERRIBLE reviews and terribly low numbers.
Also, Avatar wasn't subjected to the common early-ish internet pirating. Until a couple of hours ago, there were no pirate copies floating around that I knew of (now there is).
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