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Author Topic: Let's guess Avatar's 1st weekend gross and 2nd weekend drop % John Wilson Film God Posts: 5438 From: Sydney, Australia. Registered: Dec 1999 posted 12-20-2009 05:46 PM                     quote: Julio Roberto Avatar would pbbly rank around number 25 best weekend opening ever, not accounting for inflation (or for 3D surcharges). So VERY good numbers, just not super-duper record breaking at all. On the weekend of December 19, 1998...a little film called 'Titanic' had a $28,638,131 weekend. Now, I'm not saying this is another Titanic...but we all know how that ended up. My point is it's going to have legs. Sure some folks hate it, but others are going to see it more than once...some more than twice. I'd much prefer a reasonable opening and a long run to a 'Hulk' or 'New Moon' opening that does everything in its opening weekend and leaves nothing for the rest of the season. I don't think anyone'll be complaining about AVATAR's opening results.  |  IP: Logged Tim Reed Better Projection Pays Posts: 5246 From: Northampton, PA Registered: Sep 1999 posted 12-20-2009 11:20 PM                       I dunno 'bout everyone else of my vintage, but I still picture this guy, whenever I hear "Avatar?"  |  IP: Logged Julio Roberto Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 938 From: Madrid, Madrid, Spain Registered: Oct 2008 posted 12-20-2009 11:57 PM                    Yeah, Avatar seems to be polarizing (pun?) the audience. Some love it and rate it 9-11 out of 10. Some hate it and rate it 1-6 out of 10. Relatively few people is giving it a 7-8 out of 10. I think it has to do partly with the uncanny valley. You either buy the blue aliens as "real" or you don't. Big difference in how you relate to the story. Also, for some people the visuals are like "nothing they have seen before". For others, it's like any other animated movie (sure, with better facial performance tracking and updated to 2009). They are so impressed by the visuals that are willing to forgive the (objectively) weak and cliché story/plot. Avatar will have well deserved legs on its own, but deserved or not, it will also be helped by not having a lot of competition and having the top 3D auditoriums engaged 'til March, as there is no other 3D film in the spotlight at all 'til then. Avatar is "good" and deserves good BO numbers. It simply isn't the god-of-all-films-above-and-beyond-the-whole-earth that some people have been hyping for years. Just good or even very good to some, that's all. But with the marketing the like I have never seen before (you guys catched that recent episode of TV series Bones where they spent an entire 15m subplot talking about Avatar?), the hype about the amazing 3D that prompts people to go and check it out in the most expensive engagements (Imax), the fan-base that is literally purchasing 5 and even 20 tickets in advance, etc, etc, will make this film more extra money regardless of how much people like it. So far, combined critics give it an 8.4 out of 10 rating or so, so that's how much people like it in the average. It's getting BO numbers agreeing to that except that surcharges etc is making them 30% more than most-other films. FOX is claiming projected $232m worldwide for the opening "weekend" (includes midnight showings and some countries opened it as early as Wednesday). Also, the US dollar is super weak worldwide generally speaking, so once again those numbers "look" around an extra 10% more than they really represent in number of viewers abroad. Also, this film opened super-wide in many countries. I think it may be a record of the highest number of "prints" here in Spain ever.  |  IP: Logged Joe Tommassello Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 547 From: Coatesville, PA, USA Registered: Jan 2008 posted 12-21-2009 12:02 PM                  quote: John Wilson On the weekend of December 19, 1998...a little film called 'Titanic' Actually it was 1997. We opened the GCC Franklin Mills 14 that night. Had "Titanic", "Tomorrow Never Dies", "Mouse Hunt", "As Good As It Gets" that day and on Christmas Day I believe "Good Will Hunting" opened. Titanic on three screens and we interlocked a lot. Eventually it played on as many as six screens (including open captioned) plus interlocking. We were told we were the top grossing theater in North America with the title for many weeks. Being the first all digital sound, all stadium seating theater in the tri-state area we were THE place to go to see it. A great guy named Jim was the booth manager and he turned me on to this site back in '98. I wonder if he's still there. Yeah, I lurked for ten years before I joined this forum! FYI - I think I was the closest to first guess the weekend "Avatar" gross with my $75m prediction. What do I win? Let's see if my $45m for next weekend holds up.  |  IP: Logged John Wilson Film God Posts: 5438 From: Sydney, Australia. Registered: Dec 1999 posted 12-21-2009 03:00 PM                     Like I said...1997. Actuals for AVATAR first weekend ended up at $77,025,481...interestingly, Australia did $11,962,000 Thursday to Sunday and a further $900,000 on Wednesday night totalling $12,895,497. Ordinarily, we do +/- 10% of what USA/Canada do so it's more than just a bit off. The storms in the East they're only saying cost them about $1 million. I'd expect the drop to be minimal next week (we sold out again last night (Monday) and that NEVER happens). Upwards of $50 million for 2nd weekend. quote: Joe Tommassello "Titanic", "Tomorrow Never Dies", "Mouse Hunt", "As Good As It Gets" Ha! That's EXACTLY what we were running too.  |  IP: Logged Claude S. Ayakawa Film God Posts: 2738 From: Waipahu, Hawaii, USA Registered: Aug 2002 posted 12-21-2009 03:50 PM                        Based on newspaper reports, AVATAR has already made 232.5 million dollars wordlwide and should recoup it's production costs in a few days and continue to do well for the duration of it's run. Because many people have expressed a desire to see it more than once, it should easily exceed the 700 million I had predicted. I have heard of people who have seen it in 2-D now plan to see it again in 3-D. There are also people who saw it in 3-D now want to see it in 2-D just to see how much difference there is between the two formats. After it' theatrical run, it will do fantastic business when it comes out in Blu-Ray and DVD in about six months in 2-D only. When home video 3-D becomes established with new 3-D Blu Ray players and HDTV, fans will double dip and buy it again. There is no stopping this puppy. -Claude  |  IP: Logged Joe Tommassello Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 547 From: Coatesville, PA, USA Registered: Jan 2008 posted 12-21-2009 03:58 PM                  Claude - It wouldn't surprise me if Cameron held it back till the end of the year in order to make it the first 2D/3D hybrid disc. John - I will always remember being in the industry when Titanic was released. Man did that film have legs. I wonder if we'll ever see another movie become such an event. I remember one week night in mid-February - about seven weeks after it opened - my cousin called and asked if she and her husband could get tickets for that night. The only available show was 10:30 and despite having to get up for work they came because they had been shut out several times already. Eventually that show sold out too. 300 people watching a seven-week-old movie till 2:00AM on a work night. It was a special time. As for Avatar I am going to wait till after the new year and take a day off so my dad and I can see it in the afternoon at the IMAX 15/70 screen at King of Prussia PA.  |  IP: Logged John Wilson Film God Posts: 5438 From: Sydney, Australia. Registered: Dec 1999 posted 12-21-2009 04:05 PM                     quote: Claude S. Ayakawa There is no stopping this puppy. Joe We opened it December 18 and it sold out at Easter...750 seats. I love the apathy towards the movie now. Some even deny having seen it...why, I have no idea. But they did see it...many times.  |  IP: Logged Joe Tommassello Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 547 From: Coatesville, PA, USA Registered: Jan 2008 posted 12-21-2009 04:35 PM                  John - From my own experience I think I can put forward a theory on that. I saw it a few weeks before opening due to the fact that I was still in the video industry as well as the theater (working two full time jobs). I was immediately blown away by all the things that were great about it and there was a lot. I couldn't wait for it to open as - even that far in advance - I felt like I was going to be a small part of something very special. My family came to see it on Christmas Night. It was only many months later - probably after it was out on video (laserdisc in my case)- that I started to be bothered by it's shortcomings. Today when I think of Titanic it is as much about the cheesy dialog and adolescent storyline as the epic qualities that made it such an overwhelming theatrical experience. I think it's time to give it another spin and judge it again to see if the years have changed my perspective...or my tolerance.  |  IP: Logged Mike Heenan Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1896 From: Scottsdale, AZ, USA Registered: Mar 2000 posted 12-21-2009 05:32 PM                     I still haven't seen Titanic and have no plans to do so.  |  IP: Logged Claude S. Ayakawa Film God Posts: 2738 From: Waipahu, Hawaii, USA Registered: Aug 2002 posted 12-21-2009 05:51 PM                        Joe, James Cameron already said he was releasing a 2-D Blu Ray and DVD in about six months and a 3-D version when there is a market for it later. It makes a lot of good business sense for him if he did that. He did it with TITANIC when he first released a bare bone DVD of the movie and tempted fans to buy it again when he came out with a multiple disc special edition. I am almost sure he will come out with elaborate Blu Ray & dvd editions of his two most requested movies, THE ABYSS and TRUE LIES. I never got tired of watching TITANIC, I just watched it the night after I saw the British version A NIGHT TO REMEMBER on a Criterion DVD about two months ago. Cameron's version told a very simple romantic story and that was one of the reason I like the movie. -Claude  |  IP: Logged Phil Hill I love my cootie bug Posts: 7595 From: Hollywood, CA USA Registered: Mar 2000 posted 12-21-2009 06:16 PM                  quote: Mike Heenan I still haven't seen Titanic and have no plans to do so. Mike, I think you're right on the money. I saw it, and while watching it, I thought I was going to have a diabetic attack 'cause of all the slulpy, sugary horseshit crap and lame acting. What a POS! Cameron NEEDS to stick to sci-fi stuff... I thought "A Night To Remember" was a MUCH better film. My all-time favorite "sinking ship" film is "The Last Voyage" ...Fantastic!  |  IP: Logged Joe Tommassello Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 547 From: Coatesville, PA, USA Registered: Jan 2008 posted 12-22-2009 02:02 PM                  Mike - While I agree with Phil about those aspects of the story the film overall is a monumental achievement. Granted the "love story" strains the imagination as the writing is juvenile and there is no chemistry between DiCarpio and Winslet but the rest of the story and characters (I particularly liked Billy Zane and David Warner as a team) are solid and it is quite a visual treat. Of course a quality theatrical (or even superior home theater) presentation will enhance the experience. If you don't have an opportunity to see it in a theater I might suggest waiting for the inevitable blu-ray and seeing it on the best video/audio home theater system to which you have access. I'd be interested in your opinion.  |  IP: Logged Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 12-22-2009 02:38 PM                        Titanic is sort of weird to me -- I really liked the film and watched various scenes repeatedly when we had it, but since then I've had almost zero desire to watch it again. I think this could be because I knew that seeing it on TV would never be "the same" as the awesome theatrical experience. I don't own the DVD but maybe someday will spring for the Blu-ray, since we have a big enough TV now to do it a little more justice.  |  IP: Logged Ian Parfrey Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1049 From: Imbil Australia 26 deg 27' 42.66" S 152 deg 42' 23.40" E Registered: Feb 2009 posted 12-22-2009 08:11 PM                     I wonder if I ask Cameron really really nicely, would he send me out a special DVD of "Avafart" to play on my specially installed, just-in-time-for-the-DVD release 12" CRT 1D monochrome TV set with 1.0 sound system? You never know- everyone else has specially made formats of this thing for their equipment.  |  IP: Logged

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