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Author Topic: Let's guess Avatar's 1st weekend gross and 2nd weekend drop % Julio Roberto Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 938 From: Madrid, Madrid, Spain Registered: Oct 2008 posted 12-23-2009 01:28 AM                    quote: I wonder if I ask Cameron really really nicely, would he send me out a special DVD of "Avafart" to play on my specially installed, just-in-time-for-the-DVD release 12" CRT 1D monochrome TV set with 1.0 sound system? You never know- everyone else has specially made formats of this thing for their equipment. You are lucky. He announced one of those for early 2010. But only in the 3:4 (SIC) ratio. Not perfect, but close enough to enjoy the fantastic CGI.  |  IP: Logged Michael Voiland Expert Film Handler Posts: 219 From: Naperville, IL US Registered: Aug 2009 posted 12-27-2009 04:02 PM                     The numbers tracker page puts avatar for this weekend at 75 million 2 million less then opening weekend. quote: The numbers avatar page  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 12-27-2009 04:21 PM                     At least my second weekend guess was real close.  |  IP: Logged Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 12-27-2009 10:57 PM                        Yeah, I wish I could take back my 2nd weekend drop prediction. It went down 3%. With Christmas in there, I should have known it wouldn't take much of a hit.  |  IP: Logged Joe Tommassello Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 547 From: Coatesville, PA, USA Registered: Jan 2008 posted 12-28-2009 08:03 AM                  Yeah, I was dead on for the first weekend. This weekend took me by surprise. Glad to see good business out there.  |  IP: Logged Claude S. Ayakawa Film God Posts: 2738 From: Waipahu, Hawaii, USA Registered: Aug 2002 posted 12-28-2009 03:33 PM                        Does anyone know how much AVATAR has made world wide after two weeks? I know it had already made it production costs back and from now, everything it takes in will go into the profit column. I predict the film will continue to do well during the coming weeks and perhaps months. After it's theatrical run, it has the potential to do gangbuster home video business first with a 2-D release on DVD and Blu-Ray and when the Format is established - in HD 3-D on Blu-Ray. -Claude  |  IP: Logged Julio Roberto Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 938 From: Madrid, Madrid, Spain Registered: Oct 2008 posted 12-28-2009 03:52 PM                    Production cost for Avatar is an estimated $230m. Not sure if that includes financing cost, as the film took a long time to develop and interests on such large amounts add up quickly over the years. Also, the studio has spent by their admission $150m in marketing for the film ($230+$150=$380). Some unofficial sources call the whole deal a $400m operation. You also have to factor the distribution fees and duplication costs for such a wide release. The movie, up until today, when it has opened for between 10 and 12 days, depending on the countries, has GROSSED $623m worldwide (it opened VERY wide). As you know, about half of the money goes to exhibitors and taxes. In this case, some money goes to the Imax and 3D people (RealD) as well. I guess you can figure the producers are about to just have recovered the production cost, but are only about half-way to make the film "truly" profitable. Unless there is a sudden 90% drop in attendance, the film will surely be profitable on the long run with video and TV sales and the rest of the theatrical life. But if you look at films Chipmunks, i.e, it grossed $75m (locally) up to its opening weekend, just about as much as Avatar did, but you don't have to factor 3D surcharges/royalties and a much lower production cost. And Chipmunks is having truly awful critics and ratings of 2.3 (out of 10), while Avatar is generally liked with a combined critics index of about 8.5. Avatar looks like it's going to be a success, but not a super-blockbuster (considering its associated costs). We'll see in the next weeks how much it drops. But it is pretty amazing how nowadays just about any film grosses in excess of $50m in just a week or so and many surpass $100m w/o much difficulty. I guess we understimate the power of inflation. Even Sherlock Holmes made $66m in just 3 days this weekend. Avatar is #9 in the ranking of worldwide grosses for films after 9 days since opening, behind a bunch of Spiderman, Harry Potter, Transformer, Pirates of the Caribbean, Twilight and Star Wars films, and barely ahead of Shrek. Once you adjust for inflation and 3D, you figure it's doing fine but not super-business. Also, Avatar was a very wide foreign release, so it's bound to make most of its money early instead of in stages as many other films that open much later in different countries.  |  IP: Logged John Wilson Film God Posts: 5438 From: Sydney, Australia. Registered: Dec 1999 posted 12-30-2009 02:06 PM                     Well, needless to say it's huge here. Up until (and including) Monday, it had grossed $32,594,716 and was headed for $40m at the end of its second week. As I've mentioned here before, Australia generally does around 10% of North America's take so we are out in front of you at this point and really don't see that changing...that would be too difficult. To put AVATAR's business into perspective, the highest grossing film in Australia's history is, unsurprisingly, TITANIC with (from memory) around $58m (or $77.5m adjusted for inflation). AVATAR is at $40m after only two weeks.  |  IP: Logged John Wilson Film God Posts: 5438 From: Sydney, Australia. Registered: Dec 1999 posted 12-30-2009 06:20 PM                     Final figures in for end of second week here...$38.6 million.  |  IP: Logged Julio Roberto Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 938 From: Madrid, Madrid, Spain Registered: Oct 2008 posted 12-31-2009 02:06 AM                    It seems to be doing slightly better in Australia than "normal". I guess it may have something to do with the lead actor being from there and the whole New Zealand connection. So far, after about 2 full weeks, it's made $726m worldwide ($250m in the US). Here is a list of how it ranked, NOT accounting for inflation or for 3D/Imax surcharges: -5th ranking in best weekend Opening in 2009 in the USA. -6th ranking in best weekend opening in 2009 abroad. -9th ranking in best weekend opening in 2009 worldwide. -15th ranking in best first week ever in the USA. -76th ranking in highest grossing in a single day in the USA -9th ranking in the Top grossing films worldwide after 10 days since opening -26th ranking in the Top grossing films worldwide after days 3 days since opening -21st ranking in the Top grossing films worldwide after 7 days since opening -10th in the ranking of smallest drops for over 3000+ theaters -24th in the ranking of fastest to make $100m worldwide -10th in the ranking of fastest to make $200m worldwide Those statistic are "fixed" as the timeframe to compute them has past. For other statistics, we still have to wait until the end of the theatrical run, but so far Avatar ranks: -54th highest domestic gross ever -39th highest worldwide gross ever -7th top movies of past 365 days Of course, those last couple of statistics are bound to change as the movie continues to run. It seems Avatar has a very good chance of being in the top 10 highest grossing films, probably even the top 5. Once again, if we account for inflation or 3D surcharges, the more "equivalent" numbers to fairly compare with other films would pbbly be some 30% lower. Extremely good number. Just not super-duper-all-records-ever-smashing numbers like some were claiming it was going to make. During Xmas I've been having dinners etc with family/friends and they all said the same thing: they were "forced" to go see this movie as the marketing kept pushing the notion that this film MUST be seen and MUST be seen in 3D as there is absolutely nothing-ever-ever-ever-ever that came even remotely close and it's a "whole new extraordinary experience you-are-an-idiot-if-you-miss-it". All of them said the same thing: "Sure, nice film, nice 3D, but what was all the fuzz about?" None of them are watching it a second time. They all liked it very much and don't regret having seen it. But they all felt a little "cheated" by the marketing that promised a film way-and-beyond-it-all-ever and they found out a nice SciFi/fantasy semi-animated thing they liked, but may have skipped if it weren't for the pushy marketing false promises.  |  IP: Logged Elise Brandt Expert Film Handler Posts: 160 From: Kuusankoski, FIN/ Kouvola, Finland Registered: Dec 2009 posted 12-31-2009 02:52 AM                     In reply to the above; my dinner-table reviews have been quite the opposite thankfully. Direct quote from both my brother and my husband would be "best shit ever" but then they do like an action-bit that looks fantastic. How embarrassing is it that I haven't seen it yet? Very. What I did want to know is, have you noticed any more sick-ups than usual? I usually get to mop throw-up twice a year, now it was twice during the Avatar opening weekend. I'm sorry if it's been discussed before, these threads tend to get quite long to follow. As for Finland, Avatar does really well, at our theater I think the second week was even better than the first?  |  IP: Logged Julio Roberto Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 938 From: Madrid, Madrid, Spain Registered: Oct 2008 posted 12-31-2009 03:01 AM                    Well, to be honest, one family member, a young male, thought it was the best s*it ever, but it was the second 3D film he ever saw. There are some people that get motion sick or headaches with the 3D. Avatar has gotten some of those, of course.  |  IP: Logged Elise Brandt Expert Film Handler Posts: 160 From: Kuusankoski, FIN/ Kouvola, Finland Registered: Dec 2009 posted 12-31-2009 03:52 AM                     I have heard of difficulty to adjust to "the whole 3D experience" (in movies that is, in real life it seems to go just fine for most haha) but I've never seen it with any other 3D movie before. I can't but think that it has something to do with the movie. Again, embarrassing as it is I get to see the thing myself next saturday (always either working, tired or home with the kids who are definitely too young to see that one) so by then I'll get the gist.  |  IP: Logged Claude S. Ayakawa Film God Posts: 2738 From: Waipahu, Hawaii, USA Registered: Aug 2002 posted 01-01-2010 01:36 PM                        The President of the United States and his family along with friends and their families saw AVATUR at Regal's Windward Mall 8 Theatre in Kaneohe at a private screening late yesterday morning before the first public show of the day at 12:45 pm. The presentation at the Windward Mall theatre was in Real D 3-D. When the president and his party gets to enjoy a private screening of a film at a public motion picture theatre, is it free as a gesture of good will by the theatre chain or is the government or the president expected to pay for the showing? -Claude  |  IP: Logged Monte L Fullmer Film God Posts: 8367 From: Nampa, Idaho, USA Registered: Nov 2004 posted 01-01-2010 01:46 PM                     quote: Claude S. Ayakawa is it free as a gesture of good will by the theatre chain or is the government or the president expected to pay for the showing? I call it neither. Gov't made the request and it became an automatic approval by REG. With the Pres and his fam in the Celebrity catagory, stuff like this usually hits the automatic expectation button. The celebrity troop prob snuck in the back exit door, got conc items free and delivered to them in the auditorium and then snuck out the same door without too much hoopla. 'sides, we ain't gonna know if the Gov't made payment arrangements to REG on this one.  |  IP: Logged

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