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» Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE   » Operations   » Ground Level   » Grosses for PASSION OF CHRIST - a 100 Million in 5 days ? (Page 10)

 
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Author Topic: Grosses for PASSION OF CHRIST - a 100 Million in 5 days ?
Kamakshipalya Dhananjay
Expert Film Handler

Posts: 190
From: Bangalore, India
Registered: Aug 2002


 - posted 03-09-2004 10:10 AM      Profile for Kamakshipalya Dhananjay   Email Kamakshipalya Dhananjay   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Again !

No Maybe.

No If so and so happens....

No If so and so does not happen...

No Subject to this and that

No Can't say

ONlY YES or NO.

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Daryl C. W. O'Shea
Film God

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From: Midland Ontario Canada (where Panavision & IMAX lenses come from)
Registered: Jun 2002


 - posted 03-09-2004 10:18 AM      Profile for Daryl C. W. O'Shea   Author's Homepage   Email Daryl C. W. O'Shea   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote:
So, in the light of all this, are you going to take any position on the remaining proposition ?
No.

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Kamakshipalya Dhananjay
Expert Film Handler

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From: Bangalore, India
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 - posted 03-09-2004 10:36 AM      Profile for Kamakshipalya Dhananjay   Email Kamakshipalya Dhananjay   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Well, that was 'very smart'. So, that one is also ruled out. And I am sure there are no more loopholes to plug.

However, concerning the uncertainty of box office performance for this film, whoever also feels such uncertainty should realise they have been ably preceeded - the very own distributor for this film, Newmarket films 'never offered a penny towards advertising or prints of this film' - as reported by Variety today.

Quote :
-------------------------------------------------------------
Big B.O. but skimpy profits
Distrib Newmarket succeeds, but cautiously

By CARL DIORIO

This article was updated at 7:02 p.m.
Little Newmarket has been described as this year's big success story, but it also could be termed the department of missed opportunities.

The mini-distrib is handling "The Passion of the Christ," which is headed for a domestic take of more than $300 million. Then there's "Monster," a sleeper whose gross is headed for $35 million after jumping 12% last week because of its Oscar for Charlize Theron.

These developments have made Newmarket prexy Bob Berney something of an instant folk hero in the film biz.

But here's the rub: Newmarket could have really raked in the bucks had it actually risked a few cents on these films instead of making rent-a-system deals. The producers of "Monster" begged Newmarket for financial help, but the company declined. On "The Passion," Newmarket's distribution fee is under 12%. It never offered a penny toward prints and advertising.

"We wanted to grow carefully and responsibly," Berney explained. But this show of caution, rare in show business, has cost the company tens of millions.

Berney's partners in Newmarket Films are William Tyrer and Chris Ball, who operated film investor Newmarket Capital Group for 10 years prior to launching Newmarket Films 18 months ago.

"The key thing from our point of view is finding the right films -- we never want to distribute a mediocre film," Tyrer said.

"Monster" was brought to Newmarket early in its development, but execs there -- like those at other distribs coast to coast -- passed on the project, which then was limited to an early version of the script without topliner Theron attached.

"You can't win them all," Tyrer winced with just a hint of remorse.

Newmarket acquired its other recent overachiever -- the New Zealand drama "Whale Rider" -- for a modest sum "in the single-digit millions." And it produced and distribbed 2001 release "Memento" in line with a business model that originally called for up to 50% of its titles to be self-produced.

"We're a little bit behind on the producing, but we'll catch up," Tyrer said. "What has surprised us on the business plan is that there have been a number of films available at an affordable price.

"At Sundance, there were three or four interesting films," he recalled. "Clearly, if that price goes up in the future, we'll have to focus more on production. But at this point, it wouldn't make sense."

At Sundance, Newmarket acquired "The Woodsman," which stars Kevin Bacon as a pedophile struggling to contain his affliction. Critically praised pic reps distrib's next unslotted 2004 release, with Newmarket also looking to sked a pair of Toronto fest acquisitions -- "Stander," a South African-based drama starring Thomas Jane, and "The Green Butchers," a Danish black comedy.

Newmarket Capital also continues to invest in pics produced and distribbed by others.

Meanwhile, though Newmarket Films' profit from "The Passion" has been limited to distrib fees, Tyrer said he considers the effort to be a major step in building a relationship with Mel Gibson's Icon Prods. And industryites say involvement with the high-profile release also provides an invaluable public relations coup for a company that didn't exist just a year and a half ago.

"Most people hadn't heard much about Newmarket before, but 'The Passion' has put them on the map in a big way," said Paul Dergarabedian, prexy at B.O. tracker Exhibitor Relations. "If you just do a distribution deal, the actual money in your pocket might not be big, but the PR value brings them to a level they never would have had otherwise."

And if the passionate "Passion" grosses haven't tempted Newmarket from its risk-averse inclinations, execs are nevertheless capable of at least feigning B.O. hubris.

"Call Pixar," Tyrer joked, "and tell them that we're ready."

(David Rooney contributed to this report.)

Date in print: Tue., Mar. 9, 2004, Los Angeles

----------------------------------------------------------
Link :
Big B.O. but skimpy profits

Besides, another major site, Boxofficeprophets.com, summarises the predicament for all of us :

quote :
-------------------------------------------------------------]
....two films with combined budgets in excess of $160 million opened to less than what a $26 million project that no studio would touch less than six months ago made in its second weekend. And here you thought The Passion of the Christ was out of surprises.

A month ago, incendiary debates were occurring about the box office prospects of The Passion of the Christ. Major media commentators were arguing that there was only one built-in audience for this movie -- Christians. In hindsight, either that argument was inaccurate or the Christian audience is a much more impressive built-in fan base than previously acknowledged. High level meetings are almost certainly occurring to debate this very topic, as studio execs decide whether The Passion of the Christ is an impossible-to-duplicate phenomenon or the dawning of a new era of big-budget biblical storylines. The irrefutable fact is that we are witnessing the greatest box office shocker since James Cameron released a movie about a boat that clipped an iceberg.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Link : Cops and Horse Don't Have the Passion

Waiting for a YES or NO.

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Pravin Ratnam
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 - posted 03-09-2004 08:43 PM      Profile for Pravin Ratnam   Email Pravin Ratnam   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I had no problem with the 100M in 5 days prediction. We all knew it would make tons of money. My prediction is it will saturate around 380M. The 400M mark is a tad high for the initial run. It will probably hit that mark if they rerelease it at some point. Another unknown is would Passion be released in more tiny markets that other Hollywood movies may not get enough exposure in. It could make some good money off those tiny markets compared to an ROTK.

I do believe the 325M predicted by Newmarket will be easily surpassed.I think they are lowballing the estimates just to get favorable press that Passion continues to defy predictions. The release date of Passion was perfect. Not much competition.

I am confident though that Passion will outgross ROTK in some non western markets for sure. So, when is it coming to India? What are your predictions on how it will do there?

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Mark J. Marshall
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 - posted 03-09-2004 09:37 PM      Profile for Mark J. Marshall     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Yes.

I'm seeing folks who were moved by the film coming back and bringing their friends who haven't seen it yet. And I personally know quite a few people who want to see it and haven't yet had the chance to go.

Both the predictions that I made here came true.

A. 100 million in a week if not faster.
B. Passing 200 million by this past weekend.

I'll go along with a > $400 million take. Remember we still have Easter coming up.

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Mike Blakesley
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 - posted 03-10-2004 01:20 AM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
According to rumor the film is going into smaller markets on April 2 for 2-week minimum. So I've been told. Hopefully we'll get it at that time.

Some lady yesterday was bitching about us not having the movie yet, but WTF are we supposed to do? If we can't get it yet, we can't get it. I was tempted to tell her the ending will be the same no matter when you see it, but I resisted.

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Kevin Wale
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 - posted 03-10-2004 04:44 AM      Profile for Kevin Wale   Email Kevin Wale   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote:
Again !

No Maybe.

No If so and so happens....

No If so and so does not happen...

No Subject to this and that

No Can't say

ONlY YES or NO.

I think you're getting a bit too much into this. LOL

No one can predict the future and really a yes or a no from any of us means nothing. It is extremely possible that it will surpass 400 mil. You can see that and you don't need us to tell you what you already know.

With that, this is all presumption which is fun in this case.

I guess I'm just wondering why you are reacting that way to the answers that have been presented so far. Your post reads as though you are extremely serious.

Which brings me to something I was going to ask you the other day and forgot...

Portions of India are known for it's persecution of christians. You seem to be quite pleased with the results so far whereas it's not someone from America's first thought that someone from India would be so excited about this film. Have you noticed a general negative reaction about the film in India or is all the hostility located in more remote areas of India?

Back to grosses...

Tuesday was another excellent day. No sellouts that I heard of, but it's by far the busiest show. The weekend projects to be swamped again and as someone mentioned, Easter is comming up and signs point to a definate possible major pickup then.

With that, 400 mil does look very well within reach to me but I don't know that all first run theatres will still have thier prints at that time. That might affect things.???

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Pravin Ratnam
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 - posted 03-10-2004 06:42 PM      Profile for Pravin Ratnam   Email Pravin Ratnam   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote:
I think you're getting a bit too much into this. LOL
Heh, I agree Kevin. In fact, I feel like we are having a discussion with some newsbot who spits out news clippings from the U.S. and UK. based websites without responding to any of our queries. Maybe that's why he needs a Yes or NO. I think there were already a few queries about the news in India about this movie and no response from him. Yet if you don't give him a YES or NO answer, and he doesn't seem a happy camper.

Is this movie going to be released in India in the next 3 months? Yes or No?

Do you have an investment in Icon Productions - YES OR NO

Is there any coverage of this movie in India - YES OR NO

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Kamakshipalya Dhananjay
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From: Bangalore, India
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 - posted 03-11-2004 02:01 AM      Profile for Kamakshipalya Dhananjay   Email Kamakshipalya Dhananjay   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Well, as to performance of this film in India, I thought it would be inappropriate to discuss the same here because this topic delves only with North America. At the same time, given the lack of participation from people in India in these forums, it would have been even more inappropriate to open a separate topic for that.So, whatever it is that I need to say in this regard, it must be best to say it here.

First things first, I have nothing to do with ICON Productions. I have no stake there of any kind and have no stake in any other firm or company which have any stake by ICON. I wonder if anybody was justified at all in raising this doubt.

Please also see another topic that was opened today. That of pirated prints of DVD hitting streets in India. I was so optimistic about this film and about what it could do in India. With this piracy now spreading too fast here, I am unable to say anything about prospects in India, for now. But I will, soon.

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Kamakshipalya Dhananjay
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From: Bangalore, India
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 - posted 03-11-2004 05:03 AM      Profile for Kamakshipalya Dhananjay   Email Kamakshipalya Dhananjay   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
The pirated DVDs for this film have finally hit the streets everywhere in India. And across Asia too. What price they are selling for ?
At about 2 dollars,10 cents outright (Rupees 100). They are also available for rental for as little as 40 cents (Rupees 15).

To find out more about this, I got one for myself and here is what this DVD is about :
1. The entire film is shot using a camcorder inside a movie theatre. Some shots of people moving in and finding their seats too are there.
2. The print itself has English subtitles on it.
3. The DVD cover looks exactly like those that were photographed by BBC at streets in Mexico. Two days ago BBC ran a story about pirated DVDs of this film selling very fast in Mexico.
4. The DVDs which are selling in India have subtitles in ENGLISH (in addition to that on the screen which cannot be, obviously, turned off), MALAY, THAI, CHINESE 1 and CHINESE 2. So, it is a safe bet that copies of these DVDs must have also widely circulated in MALAYSIA, THAILAND and of course, CHINA.
I then called up ICON office at Los Angeles. There is nobody there to handle issues such as these and however, I left a message in their mailbox.

That is it. In fact, nobody in India even knows who the distributor is for India. And while I was just told the name of the person by ICON's office in London, I find it impossible to locate the contact information for one Mr.Deepak Nair, the person who has obtained theatrical distribution rights for India. The distributors association in Bangalore knows nobody by that name. And also, distributor associations in some other cities too are not aware of this person or his contact information. And so, while we hunt for this information, anybody here can offer some clue or help ?

This is it. This movie has not released anywhere in Asia and with these developments, God alone knows what is in store for this film.

I had strong expectations that PASSION could rewrite record books in India ! It could have become the highest grossing foreign film ever and also, it could have done such business here that anybody who would guess numbers, however wildly, would have fell short of the final tally.
--------------------------------------------------------------

In response to suggestion that the above post did not deserve a separate thread,

Well, there were reasons why a separate thread was started to discuss this topic.

There are no doubt plenty of posts for discussion of piracy.

1.However, this development in India comes in the wake of finding by the FBI of certain employees of a post production company involved in the piracy of the film.

2.The producer of the film, Mel Gibson openly threatening to sue the post production company citing damage in millions while also expressing the need to find if any connections exist between these suspects and the presence of widespread pirated DVDs across Mexican streets.

3.This could be a very important film in India. Pirated DVDs of all films, big or small, studio film or independent, North American or European, anything there is, all hit Indian shops within a few days of release of a film (anywhere in the world) in India. So, there is nothing special per se, for the DVDs of 'PASSION' to hit Indian streets. What is unique however, is the awareness about this film already across India and the possibility of this film to storm the Box office in India to possibly better every previous record held, whether by a foreign film or a domestic release.

4.Besides, Mel Gibson is no experienced distributor. We all know how all the leading studios deserted him and how much of a difficulty he has had to undergo just to secure a distributor. We do not know yet if he has distributors for all territories in Asia. Yet, the act of piracy in these territories could wreck severe damage to the film when it eventually releases. So, I felt, whether as a person or as an exhibitor, ICON is somewhat helpless and that it needs a helping hand. Though not sure myself of how I or anybody else can help it, I definitely thought that to place this topic in the GROUND LEVEL will elicit meaningful responses than to put it in the YAK. Sorry, FILM-YAK.

5.Foreign films have been doing disastrously in India in recent years. If one film could resurrect it, then I think it deserved a separate place to discuss threats to the film.

However, it is OK that the topic was closed. Anybody can see how much the moderators are needed. If nowhere else, at least in this particular thread !

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Michael Schaffer
"Where is the
Boardwalk Hotel?"

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 - posted 03-11-2004 05:20 AM      Profile for Michael Schaffer   Author's Homepage   Email Michael Schaffer   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote:
I then called up ICON office at Los Angeles. There is nobody there to handle issues such as these and however, I left a message in their mailbox.
Did you take into account that there is actually a time difference between Los Angeles and Los Bangalores?
Why didn`t you call Mel directly? Don`t you have his number?

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Kamakshipalya Dhananjay
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 - posted 03-11-2004 05:41 AM      Profile for Kamakshipalya Dhananjay   Email Kamakshipalya Dhananjay   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Forget about the time difference, I wonder why you are still awake at this hour, its 5 pm here and is it 3.30 am there ?

I was awake into early morning just so that I could talk to people at ICON. I called them while it was 2 am in Bangalore. That must have been 12.30 pm for them.

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Daryl C. W. O'Shea
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 - posted 03-11-2004 02:10 PM      Profile for Daryl C. W. O'Shea   Author's Homepage   Email Daryl C. W. O'Shea   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
So they were all out to lunch.

What's wrong with 3:30 am? The majority of my work gets done at that time.

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Pravin Ratnam
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 - posted 03-12-2004 05:33 AM      Profile for Pravin Ratnam   Email Pravin Ratnam   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Kamakshipalya, I wasn't serious about your connection to ICON. I was just joking about the YES or NOs since you seem to be taking this topic way too seriously. It is kind of interesting that you want this to be the highest ever grossing foreign movie in India without even seeing it and seem really into the grosses worldwide. I dont know if you are just a huge Mel GIbson fan or a born again Christian eager to make a statement to other Indians. I doubt it could reach the Titanic grosses in India.

In any case, thanks for some interesting info about the piracy of the Passion DVDs in Asia. It is interesting that the local distributor is AWOL.

Oh by the way, Kevin mentioned something about mistreatment of Christians in India. It is very isolated and really not a problem.

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Richard Fowler
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 - posted 03-12-2004 06:29 AM      Profile for Richard Fowler   Email Richard Fowler   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Kamakshipalya, being a cinema owner,is probably more attuned to gross figures to evaluate a film. In some markets such as India or Japan this could play as a limited release art film. A friend who owns a foriegn cinema circuit was planning to play this in two art locations but because of the grosses he is going for 30 screens when the film is released to his market.

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