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Author
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Topic: Anyone consuming HD or Blu-ray?
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 12-01-2007 11:53 AM
Both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have numerous releases exclusive to their respective formats, with plenty on either side that I would want for my disc collection. There's a greater number of hit titles on the Blu-Ray side. However, I couldn't get by going Blu-Ray only since there are titles from Universal and Paramount (as well as certain HD-DVD exclusives from Warner/New Line) I'd love to have.
Star Wars on Blu-Ray would not kill the HD-DVD format, just as a HD-DVD-only release of The Lord of the Rings movies wouldn't kill Blu-Ray either. Given the fact "Profile 1.1" is only just now coming to market for Blu-Ray, it may be a long time before we ever see a BD version of The Ultimate Matrix box set.
I don't think the Steven Spielberg and George Lucas angle carries the same weight that it did 10 or 20 years ago. Sure, Spielberg's apparent preference of Blu-Ray (and behind the scenes clashes with Universal and Dreamworks over it) does cause some problems. But Spielberg isn't the only person to have released good movies under the Universal or Dreamworks banners.
As I keep saying, the chance for either of those HD formats to "win" has slipped by. The point arguably happened more than a year ago. Both formats have a relatively large number of titles already released. North America numbers to date, 358 Blu-Ray titles have been released with 55 titles announced for future release. HD-DVD has had 347 disc releases with 46 more currently in the works. The studios are very entrenched in their positions of support for either format.
With sales from Black Friday included, the installation base of HD-DVD players is estimated to be 750,000 (with 300,000 of those being add on drives for X-Box 360). Blu-Ray has a customer base of 300,000 standalone players and 1.9 million Playstation 3 consoles. PS3 is clearly the thing which is helping the Blu-Ray camp post 2-1 or 3-1 disc sales advantages over HD-DVD.
Of course, this market is TINY compared to the number of DVD players sold since 1997 in the US alone: 133 Million. The customer base for standard DVD is 50 times larger.
I'll at least say Blu-Ray very obviously has a better chance long term to "win" and cause its rival to eventually disappear. Blu-Ray has that chance for a number reasons.
Although the HD-disc market is minuscule compared to standard DVD, the format war in that market is causing major problems for standard DVD sales. A growing number of people are holding off purchases of discs to see what happens with HD.
If the situation with DVD sales gets bad enough it could force major studios to talk with each other to either unanimously endorse one format or have everyone release everything in both formats. I don't think either situation is likely, even with DVD sales tanking. Dual format players are the only near term solution to this mess. Long term, if Blu-Ray keeps outselling HD-DVD at 2:1 or 3:1 margins then Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks will have no choice and be forced to abandon HD-DVD and release in Blu-Ray instead.
Of course, the souring American economy and housing industry bust many of us saw coming years in advance isn't helping things with video sales in any format. Let's also not forget the disease of sequel-itis and endless TV series remakes over the last few years to make new title selection largely shitty. IMHO, the LOTR Trilogy was the last truly big event feature big enough to drive hardware sales. Spiderman and Harry Potter sequels don't carry the same weight. This situation is going to do more to force movie studios and electronics manufacturers to get to a solution faster. Going Blu-Ray only is obviously one possibility, but I think dual format players are the more likely outcome.
The decline in the value of the US Dollar is a big problem for the largely Asian-based manufacturers of electronics. The cheapening dollar will make Toshiba's deep discounts on HD-DVD hurt its bottom line even worse.
With further examination, Toshiba is indeed the only manufacturer of standalone HD-DVD players. Onkyo's DV-HD805 and Venturer's SHD7000 are actually rebadged Toshiba OEM players. The Onkyo unit is really a slightly modified HD-XA2. Interesting note: Onkyo is apparently pulling that player from the market and has plans to replace it with a dual-format Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player sometime in 2008.
It's going to be interesting to see just how much longer Toshiba can sustain those price discounts, especially with so much of its manufacturing competition supporting Blu-Ray. There's a lot of parallels between Toshiba's support for HD-DVD with that of Sony's support of Beta in the 1980s.
Denon is coming out with its first Blu-Ray player, which is a standard profile 1.1 player instead of initial profile 1.0. Interesting comment from Jeff Talmedge, Director of Product Development for Denon, "In our heart and soul, we are looking at a true universal player, if that's what the market dictates. And it won't just play all video discs, but it will play SACD and DVD-Audio as well." I guess we can look forward to that in 2008.
It's also interesting to note that manufacturers besides Sony are driving improvements to the Blu-Ray format. None of Sony's Blu-Ray players are profile 1.1; they're just 1.0. Panasonic, Samsung and Denon are the ones offering 1.1 players while Sony, Pioneer, Sharp, LG and Phillips are stuck at 1.0. Picture in picture capability and 256MB of internal flash memory is what is missing from a 1.0 player.
I can't find out for sure when BD "Full Profile" 2.0 players will arrive on store shelves. I'm guessing fall of next year. Internet connectivity for "BD Live" and 1GB of storage doesn't really thrill me all that much. And it's worth pointing out that any dual format HD-DVD/Blu-Ray player will have an Ethernet connection for internet downloads of things like firmware updates and other stuff. The rest of the interactive ROM crap doesn't sound much different than the computer/web-based stuff we've seen on DVD for years.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 12-01-2007 04:49 PM
quote: Frank Dubrois
Completely disagree. Star Wars is still huge.
The original Star Wars movies are old. The newer "prequels" weren't all that great. Essentially, that saga is now a full generation out of date. Not everyone likes Star Wars either. Lots of high school age people and others in their twenties still think its pretty cool and all, but they were never blown away by the ground-breaking "new" quality of it like I was when I was just a kid.
Every generation of people has their own movies and music they grew up experiencing. Star Wars is definitely something that falls back in "Generation X" times. It isn't quite as relevant to the younger (and twice as populous) "Millennial" generation now reaching adulthood.
Star Wars has sold lots of copies in various video formats. However, George Lucas is no Walt Disney. It is a fact that Disney's output of animated movies is by far the top selling franchise in home video. Disney is releasing their HD-discs exclusively in Blu-Ray. Yet that hasn't managed to "kill" HD-DVD.
When you get down to it, the only thing that is going to "kill" HD-DVD is if/when Universal, Paramount, Dreamworks, Warner Bros. and New Line stop making discs in that format. Those studios actively supporting HD-DVD are only going to abandon their support if they feel it is a money losing proposition and they feel like they're missing out by not releasing product in Blu-Ray. A studio needs to sell a certain number of HD-DVD discs to cover the production costs and turn a profit. As more HD-DVD players continue to be sold that issue becomes less and less of a problem. Outside of Playstation 3, Blu-Ray standalone players aren't selling very well at all. Just 300,000 units sold to date. Blu-Ray definitely owes much of its relative success to its bundling with PS3.
Given the the install base of both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are very small, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a new BD-based release of the Star Wars movies. Same goes for certain classic Spielberg titles as well. Spielberg did go along with Columbia on getting CETK released in high def for its 30th anniversary milestone. But that's not one of his most financially successful movies (even though it is one of his best). My feeling is they're going to want to wait until Blu-Ray has an install base of at least several million players before coming up with new high def versions of movies like E.T.: The Extraterrestrial, Raiders of the Lost Ark or Saving Private Ryan
The lack of good new release titles and the relatively good audio/video quality of standard definition DVD makes it a lot easier for Joe Sixpack to sit on the fence and wait (and not even buy any of the crap Hollywood is currently releasing).
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Sam Graham
AKA: "The Evil Sam Graham". Wackiness ensues.
Posts: 1431
From: Waukee, IA
Registered: Dec 2004
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posted 12-01-2007 11:17 PM
We got a 42" LCD in August, and my existing DVD player was an older model that didn't even do progressive scan. So after looking at upconverting DVD players, and thanks to a double Amazon special that may or may not have been intended, I got a Toshiba HD-A2, because it became a "why not pay a few bucks more for a player that will actually play HD DVD's" situation. It didn't hurt that HD DVD's lifespan was prolonged by Paramount's announcement.
I have fifteen HD DVD titles (eight of which were free) with the Harry Potter box on the way, and that'll probably be it for awhile. A few of the HD DVD's look really impressive. A few don't look any better than some of the DVD's I watch. And at this screen size, regular DVD's can look pretty good. The "Mulholland Drive" DVD looks better on this thing than probably half of my HD DVD's.
I think success for the HD DVD format will depend on the average screen size of HD DVD purchasers. I have a strong suspicion most people buying the cheap A2's and A3's are the ones buying cheap 37"-50" televisions. And I think they'll be happy enough with how their standard DVD's look that they won't be heavy supporters of HD DVD titles, at least as long as they're priced $10-$15 over their standard DVD counterparts.
I see that as a potentially big problem for HD DVD. I doubt their low-end player is profitable at all (if not money-losing). If the users of those players aren't buying software, nobody's winning on that side.
I expect to have a Blu-ray player as well in the next year or two. Like HD DVD, it'll probably end up being a "right time, right place" type deal.
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Frank Dubrois
Jedi Master Film Handler
Posts: 896
From: Cleveland, OH
Registered: Mar 2005
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posted 12-02-2007 01:00 AM
quote: Bobby Henderson
The original Star Wars movies are old.
Yes...but VERY popular. They have conventions, fan movies, toys, a new TV series, several cartoon series...HUGE. Rings? Ummm?
The Star Wars movies would put a HUGE dent in Blu-Ray sales and I still stick by what I said about it nailing the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray debate closed.
No doubt I'm a bigger fan of the Star Wars movies than you are, so I see the craziness that still continues over Star Wars. Getting a Hi-Def version with a Master Audio sound track would be heaven for a lot of geeks out there. Remember, people that are 30 now, were probably standing in line for episode I when they were 22-23.
With new Indiana Jones movie coming out, I think many people might revisit that trilogy again and whip up a little excitement, but still nothing close to Star Wars.
I do agree on one point. No one is going to rush these movies to Hi-Def any time soon.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 12-02-2007 01:24 AM
quote: Frank Dubrois
Yes...but VERY popular. They have conventions, fan movies, toys, a new TV series, several cartoon series...HUGE. Rings? Ummm?
Ummm, nothing. Again, Star Wars is NOT Disney. Disney animated movies are by far the top selling video titles in the home video industry. Every family has at least a few of those videos on their shelf (including some of the icky direct to video releases). You can't say the same thing about Star Wars. If Disney isn't enough to derail Blu-Ray then nothing else is going to do it.
It's going to take Universal, Paramount/Dreamworks and Warner Bros./New Line giving up on the format for any death of HD-DVD to occur. There is no sign of that happening at all for at least the next 2 years. Legally binding contracts demand Universal, Dreamworks and Paramount to release HD content exclusively only to HD-DVD only for at least the next 2 years. So if you end up liking that J. J. Abrams Cloverfield movie that hits theaters in January, you're going to have to buy a HD-DVD player to see it in Hi-Def once it hits home video. It will not be available in Blu-Ray.
quote: Frank Dubrois
The Star Wars movies would put a HUGE dent in Blu-Ray sales and I still stick by what I said about it nailing the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray debate closed.
The debate is still open because you haven't proved your point. Actually, I'm not even seeing any logic of how just one movie release on one format is going to doom a rival video format. Fox can release Star Wars on Blu-Ray, but Universal, Warner Bros., etc. will keep on churning out HD-DVD releases. Some will be good enough to own. The further this format war goes on the more both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will become entrenched. There's too many discs out there already for either to be in trouble. Before too long the customer base for both formats will be too big for the plug to be pulled on either format without causing a major shit storm in customer anger.
quote: Frank Dubrois
Remember, people that are 30 now, were probably standing in line for episode I when they were 22-23.
Enthusiasm for "Episode I" was nothing compared to the enthusiasm that existed for the original Star Wars release in 1977. The "prequels" were small by comparison. The original 1977 film sold a lot more tickets. It also spawned a lot more merchandising for both kids and adults. There was even a popular disco album (stomach churning, going to vomit) called Star Wars and other Intergalactic Funk that did well on the music charts. What hits did these newer prequels spawn? The original 1977 release was a cultural phenomenon.
But yes, George Lucas and Steven Spielberg will not be in any rush to get their biggest films onto HD discs anytime soon -especially not while the so-called format war still exists.
My feeling is if the electronics companies just aggressively pursue dual format HD-DVD/Blu-Ray models (with every feature from both platform specs honored) then the format war will be rendered a moot point. With fully compliant dual format players, there's no worry about how any movie studio will release any HD movie. Whatever disc you buy will play regardless. That's really where we need to be.
[ 12-02-2007, 08:34 AM: Message edited by: Bobby Henderson ]
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 12-02-2007 01:20 PM
Star Wars was a major ground-breaking movie both in artistic and technical terms. There wasn't anything out there like it previously. That's not true for the newer prequels. There's too much of a "been there, done that" feeling.
But, yes, the impact of Star Wars has indeed faded a bit. The movie is 30 years old. It isn't new anymore, neither is that kind of science fiction or the whole "summer movie" trend. Most people have already seen Star Wars repeatedly. Many of us have lost track of how many times we've seen it. We still like the movie, but the novelty has definitely worn off. I'll probably buy a new HD box set of the Star Wars movies whenever they're released. But I do not expect the product to set any sales records.
Whenever Hollywood can seem to get its act together and come up with some fresh new ideas for movies those new hits will be the thing that will drive hardware sales, not all this re-tred repackaged stuff.
quote: Mark J. Marshall
And it's not Fox that would be the one to release them. It's Lucas.
How do you explain the 20th Century Fox logos on all the previous video releases, including all of those DVDs? Fox would definitely be involved in any HD quality video release. I'm sure Fox is already pestering George Lucas about it. I'm also sure Lucas won't release new HD versions of his movies until a lot more people have Blu-Ray players. It's also going to take more than just gaming fans with PS3 consoles to get the job done.
quote: Mark J. Marshall
The dual format players will soften the effects of the war, but eventually all studios will settle on one format.
I think it will take at least several years for that to happen, if ever.
Just look at surround sound formats. Lots of people expected one format, either Dolby Digital, DTS or SDDS, to win and cause the others to disappear. That never happened. Instead, everything from 35mm prints, to most home video receivers and all of the new HD disc players were made to accommodate multiple formats. Not everyone is going to agree on doing something one particular way.
And then we also have to take in account the major changes in technology that are on the way. Internet connection speeds currently are not able to deliver HD-quality video on demand. In a few years, average connect speeds will be much faster. That will seriously damage or completely kill off the "brick and mortar" video rental store business model and push that entire industry online. Lots of other industries are going to be affected in a major way.
These changes in technology may also seriously affect how people buy movies as well and potentially limit both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD to a lifespan more limited than DVD. I still like buying a disc and having a tangible product in my hand -at least when some work goes into the packaging. However, buying downloads of movies would get around problems of disc replication errors. The movie studio can even fix glitches or other problems in the audio/video stream and let customers download a corrected and improved version of the movie without having to go through the trouble of mailing off a defective disc and waiting weeks for a replacement. They might even make it where you can automatically check for updates on any of the movies you own.
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Frank Dubrois
Jedi Master Film Handler
Posts: 896
From: Cleveland, OH
Registered: Mar 2005
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posted 12-02-2007 03:30 PM
quote: Bobby Henderson
The debate is still open because you haven't proved your point.
Well, if Fox would release the Star Wars movies, then my point would be proven. You haven't proven that the movies wouldn't push blu-Ray to victory. You keep telling me that Star Wars is old, so what. Casablance is old, Citizen Kane is old....in this day and age of current releases, old is better.
You compare Star Wars to Disney. Why? They are different. Disney has a large vault of great animated movies and that's nice. I don't think that having Disney in the Blu-Ray camp is enough to draw people from HD-DVD, however, it is a big help. The age group that Star Wars would draw in is everywhere from teenagers to people in their 40's maybe even 50's. These are people that are needed....these are the people with the cash to buy Blu-Ray for themselves. Parents and kids would definately like Disney movies, but are they needed in hi-def? Do young kids really care? Would parents go hi-def so junior can watch Little Mermaid in hi-def? Nope. If that same format provided other movies such as....Star Wars, then the parents may be more willing to go hi-def for junior and at the same time, pick up a few movies for themselves....such as Star Wars.
With everything Blu-Ray offers NOW, the addition of Fox putting out Star Wars, or the Alien movies would definately seal HD-DVD's fate. The sooner they release the good stuff, the quicker they can put HD-DVD out of my misery.
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